Panther's Journal

So I decided to start a trading journal to not only keep myself accountable but to get some critical feedback that I really can't get else where. I work in accounting and you'd think there would be another person as into trading as myself but my search has turned up empty. I digress, my strategy is pretty straight forward though I look to find tune it and tweak as I continue my trading journey. I use an MACD indicator(12,26,9), a 21MA and fractals as well as the typical support and resistance lines. The fractals give a signal on whether the candle is about to dip or rise, the MACD gives me a nice idea of the direction, the MA acts as confirmation when a candle crosses below or above and the support and resistance lines give me a pretty good idea whether either of these indicators are telling me bullshit. Today I placed 10 trades ( demo for now however I plan to switch to real money next week) and my first five trades werent that great. I had two ITM and 3 OTM. With a W L W L L all in that order. I promptly took a break and I asked myself what am I doing wrong and I mediated. My problem: lack of focus, my friends. I was bouncing between browsers, texting and not giving this thing my all as I should. How can wait for openings for trades and pounce on opportunities when I don't have my head in the game. So I mediated some more and asked the universe to give me focus and what do you know my next five trades were four ITM and one OTM. I have attached the pictures below. All these trades were with 10min expirations on a 5min chart. Two of the EUR_GBP trade were ITM with one OTM and the EUR/USD and USD/CAD were both ITM. I also traded from 7pm to 11pm standard eastern time.
I play to win.
Eur_usd.PNG
1665 x 564 - 51K
USD_CAD.PNG
1514 x 827 - 57K
EUR_GBP.PNG
1663 x 554 - 50K

Comments

  • image
    I play to win.
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    Ok so your doing 1.00 demo trades, before you go live why dont you institute real money managment?
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    Most people can figure out trading but can not get the money managment down at all and fail there.
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • RaidenRaiden Posts: 186 ✭✭
    I think you have made a good decision starting a trading journal on this website. Actually I have been thinking doing the exact same thing this year. It will be a great learning curve putting all your trades out there for everyone to investigate - the good and the bad. Posting the bad ones will be the only way to learn from your mistakes imo.

    Looking at your charts I cannot see the full picture on what you based your decision to take a trade on. The MACD is missing on your EUR/USD and the EUR/GBP charts. Judging only from your fractals and sup/res lines I wonder why you took some of those trades. I know that hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy to judge once the chart is there in its full glory. I would suggest to establish certain rules of engagement and to base your decisions on high probability trades. I hope that will help you.

    Believe me, I'm no expert yet and do not claim to be. It will be great to learn from you and maybe you can learn from me as soon as I start my journal.
  • Thank you for your feedback guys. BryanMac tonight Ill trade with a money management strategy. I wasn't using one before because in the past I've been mainly trying to focus on trading well and then implementing it when my confidence solidified. I think it would be best if I traded 5% or less of my account for each trade and nightingale when possible or plausible. And Raiden I'll be sure to upload the full pictures this time as well as explanations for each trade and my thought process behind it. There is definitely a method to my madness. And I look forward to learning from you as well. Also do guys trade forex as well? And if so is it similar to BO trading?
    I play to win.
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    And just in case

    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • tradingpanther23tradingpanther23 Posts: 24
    edited January 2016
    Well first I want to give a thank you to Bryan, and I will be implementing his money management suggestions from his videos. Today I conducted 6 trades. Two on USD/CAD, one on EUR/JPY and two on EUR/GBP. Today I decided to meditate for a few minutes before trading to get my mind focused and in the right place. In the past when I use to lose trades it was mainly because I'd deviate from my strategy and mainly from lack of focus so I made sure to reiterate to follow my rules and guidelines listed below:
    1. Do not deviate from the strategy:
    No placing a trade with out a fractal appearing first
    Pay attention to support and resistance lines
    Wait for confirmation when the candle stick touches support or resistance
    BE PATIENT
    Let trades come to you, dont chase trades( I'm working on squashing this habit)
    Try to avoid trading against the MACD ( this I'm still iffy about because I'm starting to get better at picking out countertrends)
    2. Implement money management based on market conditions ( I've decided I'd use 3% on iffy days ad 5% on smoother days)
    3. Focus.

    Needless to say my results were 5 ITM and 1 OTM.
    For USD/CAD on my first trade I noticed the MACD was exhibiting a positive trend and that a hammer doji appeared along with a bullish candle as confirmation. Once the fractal appeared I immediately took the trade where the red arrow is shown and rode it up on a 10min expiration.
    For the second USD/CAD even though the MACD was still in positive trend mode there seemed to be a break in support. Usually I'm iffy on these types of trades but I felt confident and so I entered where the second arrow was at after a fractal confirmation at a 10 min expiry. I feel like I had cut it a bit close though. Both expired ITM
    For EUR/JPY I noticed the MACD was increasing and that the candlestick was above the 21 MA and breaking the resistance line. Once the fractal appeared I took the trade at the arrow and set it at 10min expiry. The trade expired ITM.
    For EUR/GBP on my first trade I noticed the MACD was positive and the candle stick had touched the support and bounced off it. Once the fractal appeared I placed my trade at the first arrow for a 10min expiry call option.
    On my second trade I noticed the candles were staying steady on the new support so once the fractal appeared I placed another call option for the 10 min expiry where the second arrow is at.
    On my third trade I traded against the MACD ( bad idea). I suppose I assumed the trend had exhausted itself. However looking back on it I shouldve waited a bit more. However once the fractal appeared I put in a for a 10 min put on the third candle.
    The first two trades expired ITM and the third expired OTM. At this point my hour and thirty mins trading time was up and I have quit for the night. Also I totally notice that for one of my trades I placed $1 instead of a $1.50. I forgot to change the price. I'm trading a $1.50 per trade because for my live account I have about $50 and I was trading in 3% increments. Let me know if you guys have any questions or concerns. Thanks again for the advice so far.
    USD_CAD.JPG
    1715 x 860 - 309K
    EUR_JPY.JPG
    1720 x 859 - 300K
    EUR_GBP.JPG
    1716 x 852 - 308K
    I play to win.
  • image
    I play to win.
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    Sounds like you have a good head on your shoulders, honestly learning to trade is 2 steps forward and one step back a lot of the time. It getting thru that and realizing trading is more like 3 steps forward and one step back = profits.
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    edited January 2016
    Basically its realizing you have to lose it is inevitable, and when you do do not let it upset you but make the correct decision based of a loss and not lose your mind and go ape shit and blow your account.
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • Basically. I've accepted that I'll lose from time to time, but as long as I continue to trade well and stayed focused and keep your money management system tight I expect to have my victories exceed my losses. Also I'm not really up to date on currency new and events( I should and need to be), but what days should I avoid trading on?
    I play to win.
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    use http://www.forexfactory.com/ to check news and dont trade 10 min before med or heavy impact news.
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
  • RaidenRaiden Posts: 186 ✭✭
    I understand your "method of madness" now Tradingpanther23. LOL. What matters is that you traded with a set of rules, waited for your conditions to be met and then went for it. Even better you ended the day in profit. Well done.

    Just an observation from me - imo it is a better signal for the body of a candle to close above your resistance line than the wick to be above (signaling a higher probability that price will continue up) and the body of a candle to close below your support line rather the wick to be below (signaling a higher probability that price will continue down). I like the idea of using your fractals as sup/res....I also trade that. Today it worked out for you waiting for a fractal to "pop up" and take the start of the last candle (or as you stated the second candle) of your 10m exp trades. The only "problem" with that is, even on the charts you posted.....other fractals popped up and then disappeared because the second candle broke it. A fractal is only cast in stone if the set is complete (5 candles in total). 2 candles plus the fractal candle plus 2 candles.

    Looking forward seeing your trades.
  • Thanks Bryan! And Raiden I will definitely try to remember the body of the candlestick thing for next time and thank you for pointing out the fractal issue. I have realized in the past they can be alittle inconsistent and sometimes but I havent found an immediate solution for that besides not using them but I noticed in the past my win rate is a bit worst without them. I think they help me in analyzing the whole picture, kinda like another form or verification if that makes sense. I came home too late to trade tonight but I'll be resuming this sunday and on monday I'll be going live.
    I play to win.
  • So tonight was a wee bit frustrating for me. My connection to my metatrader account kept on fluctuating so it would disconnect at random intervals and also trading with a sore throat is a bitch. After the fifth time metatrader disconnected I decided to call it quits. If any one know of a more reliable and affordable system please let me know. As for my trades I was only able to make three trades tonight. One was on the AUD/JPY, one on the AUD/NZD and one on the EUR/USD.
    For the EUR/USD I entered the trade after confirmation that the resistance would hold out and with the appearance of the fractal and rode the trade down with a 10min expiry put. This trade was successful and ITM.
    For AUD/NZD this trade was actually interesting. My trendline and fractal indicator were telling me that the uptrend was ending. So I entered the trade where the red arrow was placed and set a 10 min expiry. I lost the trade because of bad timing unfortunately. I should have waited until support was broken downward before entering in the put.
    For the AUD/JPY I noticed an overall small downward trend occurring, so after the candlestick broke support downward I entered the trade with the appearance of the fractal. I rode the down on a 10min expiry and it expired ITM.
    Overall the market conditions seemed iffy tonight at least for my type of strategy. Even without the disconnections I suspect I wouldnt have made many more trades tonight. Hopefully tomorrow will produce more trading opportunities and a better connection.
    AUD_JPY.JPG
    1728 x 865 - 313K
    EUR_USD.JPG
    1731 x 861 - 295K
    AUD_NZD.JPG
    1729 x 859 - 320K
    I play to win.
  • image
    I play to win.
  • john89oningjohn89oning Posts: 15
    edited January 2016
    I also think of starting my own journals. I do think that it would really help me. All the winnings on one place-I can get a conclusion out of it what steps made me profit the most. Also, all the losses on one place-conclusion out of it what steps made me lose money the most. I am currently working on my strategy and I think that it would really help me to put it all together. I follow charts on my brokers site, http://www.binaryoptions.net/brokers/marketsworld/ and I must say it does help to follow charts, but you really need to take time and follow them couple of hours a day. Also I would in my journal try to make a pattern of how do charts change. Or not how do they change but in what time of the day the biggest changes happen. Any opinions on that?
  • BryanMacBryanMac Posts: 851 ✭✭✭
    Nice job so far keep it going.
    Bryan Mcafee
    Hit me up on skype at Brymcafee (McAllen TX)
    www.tradingaxis.com
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