FX News Today US equities weaker, Treasury yields fell amid flight to safety trades.The concerns that the global economy will slide back into recession amid prolonged trade tensions continue. Chinese media yesterday suggested that Beijing could be limiting the export of rare earths minerals used in the defence an energy sector in order to put pressure on the US only highlighted that the trade war is likely to escalate further before a deal is reached. Against that background US GDP numbers and tomorrow’s inflation data will remain in focus with Bloomberg highlighting that the “Fed model” suggests that there is still value in US stocks, but only if the Fed cuts rates. Oil prices also moved up from recent lows and the WTI future is trading at USD 59.23 per barrel. In Euorpe, Stock futures are also pointing to a stabilisation and a slight easing of risk aversion, with European futures moving higher in tandem with US futures. P olitical developments also remain in focus in Europe amid a pretty quiet data calendar, although after the French number yesterday and ahead of German HICP tomorrow, Spanish inflation data may attract some attention. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD – H1 – printed one-week lows of 1.1125, and down for the third straight day. Safe-haven flight into the Dollar has been a driver this week, Worse than expected German unemployment data, along with dovish ECB commentary on rate guidance also weighed on the Euro. Support now comes at last week’s two-year low of 1.1107. XAUUSD – H1 – drifted to $1,276.25 slightly below the 200-day EMA, while it remains for a third day in the lower Bollinger Bands pattern. The asset is in a descending triangle since year’s peak. Support could be found in the near term at May 22 low, at $1,272.45, a break of this level could retest year’s strong Support at $1,266.25 Main Macro Events Today Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Preliminary GDP is expected to show a revised 2.9% gain in Q1, versus the 3.2% advance figure released last month, following a 2.2% growth rate in Q4. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have dropped slightly at 1.2% y/y in May. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.2% m/m in April, compared to -0.6% m/m in March, while Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.8% y/y, compared to 1.0% in March. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Risk aversion eventually won the day on Thursday, as stocks gave back modest early gains and yields drifted lower from opening highs. Bonds rallied as stocks were pressured by President Trump’s announcement that Mexico will be hit by 5% tariffs that will gradually rise to 25% in a bid to curb immigration. The latest escalation in the global trade war, coming after China’s manufacturing PMI fell more than expected and is now in contraction territory, added to fears that the world economy is heading for recession and sparked a new rally on global bond markets that left the 10-year Treasury rate down -4.5 bp at 2.168%. The WTI future fell back to $55.97 per barrel following the EIA inventory data which showed a 300k bbl fall in crude stocks. The Street had been expecting a 1.0 mln bbl decrease, though the API reported a 5.3 mln bbl draw after the close on Wednesday. European stock futures are selling off in tandem with US futures after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight. Today’s data calendar will likely underpin the rally in bond markets, with preliminary German and Italian inflation data set to confirm that Eurozone HICP fell back sharply in May, thus adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB ahead of next week’s council meeting.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner USDCAD – H1 – found support under 1.3490 early in the session, later bouncing to 1.3547 highs (Wednesday’s post-BoC high) as Oil prices fell to fresh 2-plus month lows. WTI crude bottomed at $56.78, down from opening highs near $59.20. Year’s high at 1.3660-1.3664 is now the next Resistance level, with Support now at 1.3481, which was yesterday’s low. USDJPY – H1 – ran out of steam over 109.90. The pairing has since fallen back under 109.00, taking its cue from Wall Street, which has about squandered all of its earlier gains. The usual talk of Japan exporter offers from the 110.00 mark has been heard, which could have prompted some position squaring ahead of the level. In the bigger picture, trade wars and general risk-off conditions will likely limit further gains going forward. Next Support area between 108.00-108.50. Main Macro Events Today Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y. However the reading for May is expected to fall back to 1.5% y/y. Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April income/consumption report is expected at 0.3% in income. It is also projected to show a 0.3% increase in the PCE chain price index versus a prior 0.2% gain, as well as a 0.2% rise in the core versus unchanged previously. Such gains won’t cause a ripple at the Fed as annual rates remain well below the Fed’s 2% target. Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Q1 GDP is expected to increase to 1.2%, after it slowed to a 0.4% growth rate in Q4 from 2.0% in Q3 (q/q, saar). Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP. Monday – 03 June 2019
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback. Tuesday – 04 June 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February. Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A) Wednesday – 05 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Thursday – 06 June 2019
Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues. Friday – 07 June 2019
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%. Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Risk aversion continues to prevail as US Treasuries, JPY , CHF and Gold remain in Bid mode Treasury yields did come off highs and the 10-year yield backed up 2.9 bps to 2.100%, after risk aversion and comments from Fed’s Bullard, who said a rate cut may be “warranted soon”, underpinned rate cut speculation and fresh gains in Treasuries yesterday. The RBA cut rates to record lows, as expected. The latter helped the ASX to outperform in Asia and move up 0.25%, but elsewhere stock markets were remained under pressure during the Asian, after the NASDAQ closed with a loss of -1.6% yesterday amid selling in the likes of Facebook and Amazon, with speculation of antitrust probes after the US Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission agreed to split up oversight of tech giants. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner USDAUD – H1 – Ran out of steam at 0.6990, but remains over daily pivot at 0.6960 and trades at 0.6982 as USD continues to soften into Europeansession. R1 and the psychological 0.7000 next key resistance. R2 at 0.7015 would need a significant deterioration in USD today. USDJPY – H1 – Keeps the bid as 108.00 handle is breached once more. S1 sits at 107.80, S2 at 107.56 and S3 at 107.24. Pivot Point and 20 period moving average at 108.10, R1 at 108.37 and R2 108.68. RSI remains north of OS at 34.7, Stochastics in OS zone all of Asian session and remain there. Lower Bollinger band 107.65. Main Macro Events Today Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y. RBA Chair Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 09:30) – Due to speak at the RBA Dinner following today’s meeting – Q&A expected. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 13:55) – Due to speak in Chicago about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets struggled during the Asian session, with mainland China bourses underperforming. Discussions between the US and Mexico ended without a breakthrough last night, which capped risk appetite, and stock markets struggled for direction during the Asian session. GER30 futures as well as US futures are also slightly in the red, despite better than expected German manufacturing data at the start of the session. German orders data better than expected, with manufacturing orders rising 0.3% m/m in April, while March data was revised up to 0.8% m/m from the 0.6% m/m reported initially. Still, a better than expected number, although the German manufacturing PMI is still firmly stuck in contraction territory and a real rebound doesn’t seem to be in sight. The WTI future remains pressured by EIA inventory data yesterday, but has come up to now $51.71 per barrel, after falling to a low of $57.20 in the wake of the report yesterday. Geopolitical trade tensions continue to provide a risk backdrop that is keeping bond markets underpinned amid growing conviction of additional central bank support. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner NZDUSD & NZDJPY – were the biggest movers and shakers yesterday in the forex markets, with the pairing and cross showing respective 0.6% and 0.7% gains at prevailing levels, with both modestly off highs. The outperformance of the Kiwi dollar, with buying having been catalyzed by RBNZ assistant governor, Hawkesby, vaulted the pair to a 4-week high at 0.7007. Overnight the pair turned lower to 0.6610, However however this could be a correction of the overbought asset. The overall outlook remains bullish as the asset extends Bollingers to the upside. USDJPY – H1 – fell to 108.04 overnight, while the pair has since rebounded to 108.15 ahead of then London open. Given the slide in Treasury yields however, further upside for the pairing is likely to be limited. The next support level comes at the January 10 low of 107.77. Main Macro Events Today Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final Q1 results in the Eurozone are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 1.2%, and at 0.4% in quarterly basis. Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen slightly in April to -$50.6 bln from -$50.0 bln in March. Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) Initial jobless claims for the week of May 31 are estimated to fall to 213k, after a 3k rise to 215k in the week of May 25. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets traded mixed in Asia, with Chinese markets underperforming, ahead of key US jobs data today. Hopes that Mexico tariffs may be postponed helped Wall Street to close higher, but Vice President Pence said the US still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week ahead of further talks today. China’s central bank head sounded relaxed on the Yuan, but stressed that the PBOC still had lots of policy room if the trade war worsens. CSI and Shanghai Comp still lost -0.9% and -1.2% respectively and the tech heavy Shenzen Comp fell back more than 2% as Facebook announced that it will no longer preinstall its app on Huawei phones, spelling more trouble for the beleaguered tech company. US Stock futures around 0.1% higher and the WTI future continued to climb up from the lows seen in the wake of EIA data Wednesday and is now trading at $53.28 per barrel. Ahead of EU open, German trade surplus narrowed as exports slumped, while German industrial production corrected -1.9% m/m in April. European stock futures are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the DAX futures, which also ignored the weak April numbers Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD – has been consolidating in a narrow range in the mid 1.1200s, consolidating the steep losses from 1.1306 that were seen during the London PM/NY morning session yesterday. It is expected that the Dollar would likely hold up better than the Euro in the scenario that further sustained bouts of risk aversion is seen in global markets in the months ahead, with US Treasuries offering the highest risk-free return around, regardless of prevailing market discounting of Fed rate cuts. The pair remains in a bear trend which has been evolving since early 2018. This was reaffirmed by the new two-year low that was printed last month at 1.1107. Resistance comes in at 1.1300-06 and 1.1323-25. Main Macro Events Today Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%. Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May. Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on the UK mess and the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. Market attention is also honed in on the G20 meeting but also on the US economic data which will be scrutinized for any sign that trade uncertainties are impacting amid a slowing in economic growth.
Monday – 10 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (JPY, Sunday GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, slightly lower than last time, reflecting weaker than expected household spending. The annualised outcome is seen at 1.8% after the stronger than expected 2.1% growth. Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – May’s exports are anticipated to contract to 3.8% y/y, from the 2.7% y/y. The trade balance should grow to $20.5bln in May from $13.83B in March. This report will be consistent with ongoing slowing in China’s domestic economy (falling imports) and the impact of the trade war with the US (drop in exports). Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The two indices are expected to have fallen back to 0.1% m/m and 0.2% m/m in April, confirming that the sector is back in contraction. Tuesday – 11 June 2019
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March. ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. Wednesday – 12 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – May’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 2.7% y/y following the rise of 2.5% y/y in April. Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May. Thursday – 13 June 2019
Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.1% in May, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 14K compared to 28.4K last month. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation fell back in April to 1.3% y/y from 2.1% y/y. In May however, it is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y again. SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact. Friday – 14 June 2019
Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session, once again led by China after the US-Mexico deal also revived hopes of a US-Sino deal, despite Trump’s comments. President Trump: China deal is going to work out; but no deal means more tariffs.He said that he is ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if there is no progress in talks with China’s President at the June 28-29 G20 summit. The expectations that China will ramp up stimulus programs to boost the flagging economy were boosted by news that China will allow local government to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for major investment projects. European stock futures are also moving higher as are US futures. US futures are up 0.3-0.4% and the WTI future is trading at $53.74 per barrel. The yen crosses lifted higher as the Japanese currency lost ground as the relief rally on easing trade tensions in equity markets continued. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner USDJPY lifted by over 30 pips in the hours after the Tokyo fixing today. USDJPY printed an intraday high at 108.64, but has so far remained shy of yesterday’s 11-day peak at 108.71. This week it has breached above its prior-week peak for only the second time out of the last 7 weeks. The pair could continue to hold a better footing for now, especially with the planned meeting between top-level US and Chinese officials at the upcoming G20 serving to arrest what had started seem an irrevocable downward spiral in relations between Washington and Beijing. It has support 108.32-35, and resistance at 108.91-94. EURUSD moved back above the 1.1300 mark, though well under Friday’s near 3-month high of 1.1347. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with resistance at Friday’s high, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367. Gold Futures retreated from Friday’s near 4-month high of $1,347.70, falling to $1,325. The moderate sell-off was driven by the return of risk-on conditions. The news that the US would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods helped the Dollar recover and saw yields and equity markets move higher, all gold-negatives. Main Macro Events Today Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March. ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974. Producer Price Index ex Food & energy (USD, GMT 12:30) – A flat rate is anticipated for headline PPI in May, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Market sentiment turned cautious again ahead of the G-20 summit. Bund yields declined from the off, as Treasuries rallied following President Trump’s criticism. President Trump said it is he who is holding up the China trade deal until the country returns to agreed terms. He also stepped up his criticism of the Fed, saying rates are “way too high“. He also stated that the EUR and other currencies devalued against the Dollar. Stock market sentiment turned cautious again and Asian markets are mostly in the red, as are European and US futures. This underpinned Treasury yields and saw yields coming down again. A -1.74% decline in the Hang Seng led broad losses in Asian stock markets, amid protests in the city and signs of rising funding costs. The WTI future fell back below the $53 per barrel market. The European data calendar is focusing on UK inflation numbers and ECB’s Draghi is set to speak amid signs that council members are split on the assessment of inflation expectations. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD is trading at 1.335 maintained a narrow trading band, with the Dollar overall largely in a holding pattern, following fairly steep losses seen over the past week or so. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with Resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1347, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367. Main Macro Events Today ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 08:15) Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Treasury yields have fallen back -1.2 bp to 2.108%, as weaker than expected CPI numbers out of the U.S. yesterday adding to speculation of rate cuts in the US. Fed funds futures price in about 80% chance for rate cut by by end of July. Asian bond markets were mostly supported, although JGBs corrected and the 10-year yield moved up 0.5 bp to -0.118% as a stronger Yen curbed investor appetite for Japanese assets. Stock markets mostly remained under pressure in Asia, with the Hang Seng declining -0.79% as large political demonstrations continue to unsettle investors. In Europe German HICP for May was confirmed at just 1.3% y/y this morning, which together with the decline in market based indicators for inflation expectations will also keep easing speculation alive as stock markets remain weighed down by geopolitical trade jitters. Oil prices continued to decline, with trade jitters continuing to weigh on sentiment and the WTI future is currently trading at USD 51.43 per barrel, up from yesterday’s lows, following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner WTI crude fell at $50.70 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 0.5 mln bbl decrease, though the API revealed a 4.9 mln bbl build after the close on Tuesday. Overall, a fairly bearish report, which added further pressure on the USOIL downtrend. In the near-term the outlook remains bearish as well, while only a break above 52.80 could suggest a short term reversal to the upside. Main Macro Events Today SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact. Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of June 7 are estimated to fall to 217k, after holding at 218k in the week of June 1. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Tense geopolitical events in the Mid East injected some risk in the market, providing a boost to bonds after reports surfaced overnight that two oil tanker were damaged off the coast of Iran. Stock markets traded mixed in Asia with Hong Kong and China bourses under-performing. Australian yields marked new record lows amid concern that geopolitical trade tensions will hit global growth and prompt central banks to step up easing measures. The FTSE 100 future is posting fractional gains as Brexit supporter Boris Johnson emerges as the clear favorite to win the leadership contest in the conservative party and succeed Teresa May. Investors await data releases that are expected to show ongoing weakness in the economy. The WTI future is at USD 52.16 per barrel after yesterday’s attacks. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD headed to 1-week lows of 1.1269 at mid-morning, and it is now traded higher at 1.1277 area. Trade this week has been centered on the 1.1300 mark, and further consolidation is expected ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement. There is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is expected to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Until then, EURUSD can be expected to remain between its 50-day moving average at 1.1219, and its 200-day moving average at 1.1363. USDJPY has been rangebound,topping at 108.53 before later ebbing back to 108.23 lows. Treasury yields however, continue under pressure following benign CPI on Wednesday, and soft import prices early on Thursday, putting some pressure on the Dollar. As a result, USDJPY has been nearly static. Further consolidation is expected into next Week’s Fed policy announcement. Main Macro Events Today Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meetings in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In the UK, the voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. On the data front, focus turns on inflation and Retail sales. Monday – 17 June 2019 Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BoE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee. Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth and inflation). Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook. Wednesday – 19 June 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%. Thursday – 20 June 2019 Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”. Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting. Friday – 21 June 2019 Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively. Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos. Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively... Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Wall Street was managed modest gains, supported by a better than 1% rise in industrials which offset a drop in materials. The markets generally shrugged off a sharp drop in the Empire State manufacturing index and a weaker than expected NAHB housing market index. Asia stock market gains were capped by caution ahead of the Fed meeting. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.88% and -0.81% respectively as the Yen strengthened, the Hang Seng continued to recover and moved up 0.70% after being pressured by political protests last week. The ASX gained 0.54% after getting cut a boost from RBA meeeting minutes signaling another rate cut could be underway. GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed. US futures are slightly in the red. Speculation that the Fed will signal rate cuts is mounting and in Europe ECB officials seem to be readying further easing measures, while the BoE is widely expected to remain on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner AUDUSD also fell to a 5-month low, at 0.6833. The underperformance of the Australian follow was catalyzed by the release of the RBA minutes to the June policy meeting, which saw the central bank cut its cash rate to a record low of 1.25%. The minutes showed that the RBA is of a mind to ease policy again, as soon as July, given prevailing concerns about unemployment and disinflation. AUDJPY pegged below 3-year lows at 74.50, hence next Support is at June 2016 low at 72.40 . GBPJPY has hit fresh lows, and the yen has remained bid amid a backdrop of continued sputtering in global stock markets. GBPJPY daily volatility has fallen from 140 pips in February to less than 120 today. Key Support levels for both pairs sit at 133.80 and 132.30 respectively. Main Macro Events Today Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook. BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:00) ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 14:00) Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Expectations that global central banks will add further stimulus to underpin the global economy and fresh hopes that global trade tensions will be resolved through talks after all underpinned stock markets during the Asian session. US President Trump tweeted yesterday that he will meet China’s President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting, which helped to lift CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 1.96% and 1.50% respectively. Bond markets closed below highs yesterday and the gains are likely to erode further today as the focus shifts to the FOMC announcement. GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly in the red with profit taking and renewed caution capping the room for further gains. German PPI data at the start of the session came in lower than anticipated. The WTI future benefited from fresh trade talk hopes and is trading marginally above the USD 54 per barrel mark. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner USDJPY has drifted moderately lower, to levels around 108.26. The dip reflects a pick up in demand for the Yen. Overall, directional impulse has been limited in forex markets with participants hunkered down ahead of the Fed policy announcement later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Fed, where there is risk of disappointment given the level of expectation for a strong dovish guidance. USDJPY is presently sitting near the midway of a choppy sideways range that’s been unfolding for nearly 3 weeks now. The range over this time has been 107.81 – 108.80. Support comes in at 108.00-06. USDCAD – The Canadian dollar, buoyed by a 4.5%-plus rally in Oil prices over the last day, has seen some moderate outperformance, which has taken USDCAD to a 3-session low at 1.3365. Underpinning Oil prices (aside from Mideast geopolitics) and equity markets have been hopes for a strongly dovish signal from the Fed today, yesterday’s dovish shift by the ECB chief, and news that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi at the upcoming G20, and that ministerial-level trade negotiations will be recommencing. For the pair, Support holds at 1.3354 and 1.3336, while Resistance is at 1.3390-1.3400. Main Macro Events Today Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month. Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets continued to rally in Asia, underpinned by hopes of further easing and progress on the trade front at the G-20 meeting and European stockfutures are moving higher in tandem with US futures. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, but highlighted downside risks, especially for overseas economies. Hopes of further central bank stimulus and progress on the trade front at the G20 meeting meanwhile are keeping stock markets underpinned and Nikkei and Topix moved up 0.32% and 0.64% respectively. The Dollar has rotated lower after the Fed. FOMC held rates steady as expected, but shifted to an unambiguously dovish gear, noting that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased” while issuing a larger than expected downgrade in the dots as Chairman Powell refrained from using “transitory” to describe low inflation, marking a downshift in the inflation view. Some follow-through Dollar selling looks likely even in the London interbank market though increasingly dovish arguments at the ECB and other major central banks should curtail the US currency’s downside potential. The WTI future is 54.67 trading at USD 54.57 per barrel. In Europe, the BoE is also widely expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged, but markets will be looking for signs that the BoE will at least drop the tightening bias as the global backdrop deteriorates Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD printed 1.1283 highs, up from opening lows of 1.1225. The modest rally has been attributed to position adjustments ahead and post the FOMC announcement. Next Resistance for the asset holdws at 1.1288 and the round 1.1300. Support is set at 1.1245-1.1254. USDCAD – The Canadian Dollar, was the biggest mover, dropping by nearly 1% in making a four-month low at 1.3223. A strong rally in oil prices has catalysed a strong bid for the Canadian dollar. The WTI crude prices are up by nearly 3% since the Fed’s announcement, and are up by 5.7% from week-ago levels. Hence since the pair has broke the Support at Friday’s low ,the strong bullish mix of developments for CAD, opens the doors towards February-March lows, between the 1.3060-1.3140 area. Immediate Support meanwhile, is set at the round 1.3200 level. Main Macro Events Today Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK sales are expected to slip -0.5% in May, with a big yearly slip at 2.7%, following a 5.2% figure for the April. Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to fall to 12.0 in June from 17.8 in May, versus a 2-year low of 3.7 in March. The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 11.0 in June from 16.6 in May, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Thursday’s rally on Wall Street failed to boost Asian markets, which struggled as the impact of easing hopes following dovish comments from Fed, BoJ and ECB faded and trade angst returned. US-Iran tensions also weighed on sentiment. The New York Times reported that US President Trump had actually approved military strikes after Iran shot down a US military drone, but pulled back from launching the attacks. The Nikkei fell back -0.8%, although the Shanghai Comp still managed a gain of 0.5% amid lingering hopes of progress on US-Sino trade talks ahead of the leaders meeting at the sidelines of the G-20 meeting next week. The USA500 managed a record high yesterday as markets position for rate cuts, but US futures are slightly in the red after a cautious session in Asia and GER30 futures are also down. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner USOIL advanced as much as 6%, up over $3, at June highs of $57.37. The downing of a US drone in the Persian Gulf got the rally rolling, with gains since coming following a Trump tweet, which just said “Iran made a very big mistake!”Following the tweet, prices moved up from near $56.20 to session highs. Immediate Support today hold at $56.00, while on the break of it 55.20 could be retested. On the flipside, Resistance $58.50-59.00 as stated in our post yesterday. Cable has lost upside traction, with the pair having settled 25-35 pips below the highs. The BoE trimmed its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 0.0% q/q from 0.2% while stating that inflation remains well anchored. Cable earlier printed an 8-day high at 1.2727. The Pound has fared less well against the Euro, losing ground today against the common currency. The UK currency has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, and this is not expected to change. Cable has resistance at 1.2730 and Support at 1.2665. Main Macro Events Today Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively. Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos. Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move. Monday – 24 June 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold fell at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2. Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April. Tuesday – 25 June 2019
OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00) Wednesday – 26 June 2019 Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75% in May, and this is expected to remain the case again in next week’s meeting. As Orr stated “We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Thursday – 27 June 2019 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y. US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grew at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April. Friday – 28 June 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y. US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption. Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Treasury yields extended declines in a quiet and cautious Monday action. The front end and belly of the curve mostly led the way on safe haven flows and as the FOMC’s more dovish than expected twist last Wednesday continued to support. Equities were little changed after a narrow, range bound trade. Tensions with Iran continued to drive cash into the safety of Treasuries, especially after President Trump announced he was placing more sanctions against its supreme leader and other top Iran officials has closed the path to a diplomatic solution (on the Ayatollah Khamenei, personally). US futures are down -0.2-0.5% as traders await Powell’s speech today. TheWTI future saw a high of $57.98 per barrel before pulling back slightly to now $57.45. Wall Street was in a more wait-and-see mode on the geopolitical risks, and as global markets await the U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 later in the week. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD printed fresh 3-month highs just over 1.1411, up from 1.1380 lows at the open. The Euro moved to session highs after the weaker Dallas Fed index. The pairing ran into sellers at 1.1400, seeing a pullback to 1.1386 lows. Prospects for a July Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the Dollar, though soft EU data are likely to push the ECB toward further stimulus over the next few months, largely offsetting potential Fed policy easing. The March 20 high of 1.1448 is the next resistance level. Gold has printed five-plus year highs of $1,439.11, up from opening lows of $1,418.17. US/Iran tensions, along with potential for a Fed rate cut in July, and a weaker Dollar have all combined to put a bid under gold prices. The contract can be expected to remain in buy-the-dip mode for the foreseeable future, and continue to benefit from safe-haven flows on any fresh clashes in the Mideast. Main Macro Events Today NO OPEC Meeting in June –The dates of the separate OPEC ministerial meeting and of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been changed to July 1-2, from June 25-26. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00) Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today A less than dovish comment from Fed dove Bullard, with the Chairman Powell soothed a bit, and along with the usual trade uncertainty and US-Iran concerns, all combined with softer US data to take Wall Street and Treasury yields lower overnight. Hence in Asia session, the rally on bond markets run out of steam and stocks struggled as optimism on an immediate rate cut from the Fed and a breakthrough in US-Sino trade talk fades. Fed Chair Powell repeated the phrase the Fed is “closely monitoring“. He highlighted downside risks to the economy again, but didn’t go beyond last week’s guidance on rates. Presidents Trump and Xi are likely to meet on Saturday, where they may agree to reopen trade talks. Source stories meanwhile suggest that the US is willing to suspend the next round of China tariffs if trade talks resume, but Trump and Xi Jinping are not expected to agree on a detailed trade deal at the G-20 meeting. Against that background stock markets struggled during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.71% and -0.70% respectively The RBNZ kept rates at record lows, but said further cuts may be needed. The WTI future is trading at $59.10 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions. German consumer confidence deteriorates. It fell back to 9.8 in the advance July reading. This is the lowest number since April 2017. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURCHF has found a footing into 1.10 area after coming under significant pressure last week, in the wake of ECB President Draghi’s eyebrow raising dovish shift, which has been the most notable of a growing chorus of dovish voices on the central bank’s governing council. Assuming the ECB remains on the path of further monetary policy easing ,the EURCHF is expected to retain a declining bias. The SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate and threat of tactical intervention hasn’t been sufficient to arrest recent appreciation of the Franc. Main Macro Events Today
ECB’s Mersch speech (EUR, GMT 08:00) BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 09:00) Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Treasuries were weaker Wednesday after a poorly subscribed 5-year auction, while aggressive Fed rate cut expectations continued to be priced out. Also other bond markets in Asia, which were under pressure as stocks moved higher. Markets are pinning their hopes on Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the side-lines of the G-20 meeting with reports that the U. is willing to hold off further tariffs for now helping to bolster confidence. At the same time, President Trump threatened additional China tariffs if there is no agreement. Still, without a firm and formal agreement in place risks of set backs remain high, especially as US.-Iran tensions and in Europe no-deal Brexit scenarios provide a risky backdrop. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after broad gains in Asia. WTI crude surged to 4-week highs on API data showing big US inventory drop. USD is trading mixed today after rallying Tuesday on Fed’s walk back of dovish guidance. JPY down, Dollar bloc currencies up quite sharply on US-China optimism. GBP is underperforming again on persisting Brexit related demand-supply imbalance. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD rallied to 1.1391 highs, after bouncing from the session low at 1.1348, which is also the 200-day moving average. The pairing has since run into sellers in front of the 1.1400 mark, settling in under 1.1360. Softer US data weighed on the Dollar, though Fed Chair Powell’s more neutral stance on policy may tone down market’s aggressive easing potential, likely to limit EUR gains going forward. In addition, increasing prospects for further ECB easing should also keep a cap on EURUSD. AUDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising about 0.5% in printing a 16-day high at 75.62. The Yen weaken as markets opted for risk-on positioning ahead of the G20 summit. USDJPY posted an eight-day high at 108.13. This price action came as Chinese markets led broader gains across Asian stock markets, which propelled the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by 0.6%. Meanwhile, as AUDJPY seems overbought outside from upper Bollinger Bands pattern, Some correction could be seen with immediate Support at 75.33. Resistance holds at 75.67 and 75.80. Main Macro Events Today
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y. US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets headed south during the Asian session. Trade headlines continue to drive market sentiment and fresh doubts that there will be a breakthrough on the trade front at the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping saw investors heading for cover again. Trump repeated threats of more tariffs and with global equities still more than 5% higher on the month, the risk of disappointment is capping markets for now. If there are at least further negotiations and central banks remain on course to add more stimulus, it should be a constructive start to the second half of the year. Topix and JP225 lost -0.25% and -0.50% respectively so far. US futures are trading narrowly mixed, with American lenders gaining overnight after announcing share buybacks in the wake of annual Fed stress tests. The WTI future is at $59.19 per barrel after seeing a high of $59.54 overnight. In Europe, peripheral markets are outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing as a sharp drop in German import price inflation at the start of the session added to pressure on the ECB to implement further easing. Eurozone stock futures are narrowly mixed. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner BTCUSD retreated further overnight, with the contract bottoming at $10,228.24, down from Wednesday highs of $13,821. This sell off has been measured as a 25% plunged. The sell off started on the failure of Coinbase website. Technically, the decline came after the asset reached the 61.8% retracement level from year’s high, while it is currently retesting the 50% Fib. level. Hence as the asset was overbought such a correction is technically acceptable. If the pair manages to sustain a move above the 38.2% Fib level along with a move above the midpoint from this week’s decline (i.e. 12000.00), could spread hopes for another attempt higher again. USDJPY fell briefly under 107.70. Word that China would require preconditions for the talks weighed the pairing down, though moved off its lows as NEC chief Kudlow said there were no pre-conditions to the talks. Wall Street gains limited the pairing’s losses, though soft Treasury yields put a cap on USDJPY. Resistance is now at the 20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55. Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y. US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption. Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
An important week is coming up as we will have an outcome of the well anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, while finally the 1st and 2nd of July will see OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. In addition, NFPs will be out on Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week. Monday – 01 July 2019
OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June. Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June, the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback. Tuesday – 02 July 2019
Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China. Wednesday – 03 July 2019
United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Thursday – 04 July 2019
United States – Independence Day Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month. Friday – 05 July 2019
NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April. Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Australia’s 10-year rate fell -2.7 bp, as the RBA slashed the cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.00%, citing the slowdown in global trade. US President Trump may have signalled that talks with China have already restarted, but the US reportedly also expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs, which highlights that the restart of US-Sino trade talks doesn’t mark the end of global trade tensions. Stock markets already turned cautious again in Asian trade. US futures are marginally higher and the WTI future is trading at $59.13 per barrel. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after a lacklustre session in Asia. Meanwhile weaker than expected German retail sales at the start of the session confirmed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to the rest of the economy, which will keep the ECB on course for further easing. EU leaders will meet again to resume discussion on the next president of the European Commission and other top posts that will become vacant this year, including the ECB presidency. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner AUDUSD jumped to 0.6985 at the Asia session amid the RBA announcement, after the decline seen yesterday on Dollar strength. The asset manage to held above 20- and 50-day SMA. A trade above 0.7000 which is the midpoint on yesterday’s decline could suggest further upside path for AUDUSD. Support comes at 2-day low, at 0.6955. A shift back to the latter could open the doors towards June’s values. EURUSD faded to 7-session lows of 1.1275, down from the 1.1360 highs seen ahead of the NY open. Weaker European PMI data, along with more dovish ECBspeak, saw sentiment toward the Euro soured some. For the USD side of the equation, markets have toned down their Fed rate cut expectations, leaving the odds of a 50 bp cut in July a long shot. As a result, the Dollar has posted gains, helped by the trade truce agreed over the weekend. There are still likely to be further trade fireworks going forward, but as long as the US economy continues to outperform rivals, USD downside should be limited going forward. Main Macro Events Today
Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) –The June construction PMI is seen rebounding to 49.4 after 48.6 in May. Manufacturing PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Canada is expected to come out at about 49.0 in June,slightly below the 49.1 in May. BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:05) Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock market sentiment turned cautious again during the Asian session. EU leaders formally nominate IMF head Lagarde to head the ECB and replace Mario Draghi. Lagarde, is clearly a much more dovish option in comparison to Weidmann, who has been the leader of the hawks on the council. Lagarde’s nomination was enough for investors to price in even more easing and asset purchases, despite the fact that a Bloomberg report suggested that the majority of policy makers are not ready to make a more in July and prefer to wait for the updated forecasts in September. EGB futures have extended gains on the news. BoE’s Carney flags downside risks from trade. The BoE head repeated that the central bank sees the need for rate hikes if Brexit is smooth, he added that markets are giving more weight to a no deal scenario and that the BoE will reassess Brexit and trade risks at the August meeting. The US’ threat of additional tariffs on European goods highlighted that geopolitical trade tensions are far from over. The private China services PMI slowed to a four month low in June, adding to signs that much of the damage has already been done. Nikkei and Hang Seng lost -0.72% and -0.26% respectively and the Shanghai Comp is down -0.86%. President Trump plans to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to the Fed Board of Governors to fill the two vacancies. GER30 and UK100 futures are currently posting slight gains, underpinned also by easing hopes, while U.S. futures are in the red, after a largely weaker close in Asia. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner USDJPY has come under some pressure, dropping to 107.52. Modest risk-off conditions have weighed, while the sentiment boost seen after the US/China trade truce appears to have worn off, leaving the reality that it may well be quite some time before agreements are made, and tariffs come off. Until some progress is made, it appears USDJPY upside will be limited. XAUUSD rallied to 1437.68 high,, underpinned by easing hopes and by geopolitical trade tensions which clearly are far from over. AMid EU open Gold reversed slightly lower to 1421 area and it is currently consolidating above it. Support holds at 1421, 1413 and 1407.55. Resistance levels come at 1428.55, 1431.80 and 1440. Main Macro Events Today
United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –The June Services PMI is seen stable at 51 m/m. Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – It is expected to widen in May to -$54.6 bln (median -$53.5 bln) from -$50.8 bln in April. ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields closed at 1.950% and the Dow lifted to record highs ahead of today’s holiday in the US, as investors priced in deep central bank easing. In Europe, Bund yields are holding steady around -0.39% in opening trade, and Italian yields in particular continue to slide, as investors buy into hopes that under Lagarde’s helm the ECB will take a more benign view on deficit spending and implement further easing to support struggling economies. US President Trump once again accused China and Eurozone of currency manipulation and stock markets turned more cautious during the Asian session amid lingering trade concerns and with trading volumes below average as investors wait for the key US jobs report on Friday. European stock futures are slightly higher, while US futures are marginally in the red. The WTI future is trading at $56.85 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner USDJPY recovered from post-ADP lows of 107.58, bouncing to 107.82 highs, after failing to test the overnight 6-session low of 107.54. Soft Treasury yields (10-year at 1.95%) have limited upside for the pairing, though another Wall Street rally should contain losses. Activity is likely to wind down early today, as many make their way out the door on today’s Independence Day holiday. AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar has outperformed for a second day, presently near highs with a 0.6% gain versus the US buck and a 0.8% advance against the pound, which is the weakest of the main currencies on the day so far. AUD-USD posted a 57-day at 0.7047, extending gains seen from yesterday’s at 0.6956, seen in the immediate wake of the RBA’s rate cut. Markets had mostly priced-in the move, with Aussie money markets having factored in 85% odds for it. Given this, along with some cautiously upbeat remarks on the outlook in RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, and the thawing in US-China tensions, the scene was set for a rally in the Australian Dollar. AUDUSD has support at 0.7017-20. Main Macro Events Today
United States – Independence Day Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 1.6% for May, after the 1.5% last month. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets are little changed and awaiting today’s US jobs report. Hopes of further central bank easing have underpinned the latest rally in bonds and helped stock markets to move past lingering trade tensions. Today’s NFP report will be watched closely in the light of speculation for a move from the Fed this month. Anything but a much stronger than expected number will likely see markets continue to price in deep easing ahead. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.08% and 0.09% respectively, the Hang Seng lifted 0.12% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 0.55% and 0.19%. Oil prices meanwhile are trading at $56.65, clearly below recent highs, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Italian rates fall further as weaker than expected German manufacturing orders added to hopes for additional easing measures from the ECB. German manufacturing orders slumped -2.2 bp in the May reading, bringing the annual rate down to -8.6% y/y. Orders from within the Eurozone have now dropped for the second consecutive month while orders from outside the currency bloc fell back -5.7% m/m, after some strong months. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD edged out a 1.1273, which is just 5 pips from yesterday’s low. Market narratives have been centering on the ECB’s further turn to the dovish side, which has tipped the Bund yield curve into negative right out to the 20-year maturity, while the 10-year yield has forayed below -0.40%, undershooting the deposit rate. GBPUSD found a footing after three straight down days, which yesterday culminated in a 15-day low at 1.2557. The pair has since taken root around 1.2575-90. EURGBP similarly came to a directional halt below the six-day high seen yesterday at 0.8990, which is just 2 pips short of the six-month peak that was seen last week. Main Macro Events Today
NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018. Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April. Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP. Monday – 8 July 2019 Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports clearly are impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU are still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spell further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial production expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month. Tuesday – 9 July 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April. Wednesday – 10 July 2019 Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged. Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have rise to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remains for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020. FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement (removed patient) and the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing made for a dovish stance. Thursday – 11 July 2019 Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) –The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June. Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) –May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May. Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00) Friday – 12 July 2019 Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Stock markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony, after jobs data reduced hopes of big rate cuts from the Fed. Tech stocks were hit by a slump in Apple Inc. after a broker downgrade. Topix and Nikkei pared early gains in the course of the session and are currently down -0.22% and up 0.06% respectively. Central bank expectations remain a major force for stock market moves, amid lingering geopolitical trade tensions, which are far from over despite the restart of US-Sino talks. European futures as well as US futures are down -0.3-0.4% with the Nasdaq underperforming. In Europe, BTPs are currently outperforming, but Greek bonds, which rallied yesterday on the election result, are paring some of the gains. Released overnight, UK BRC retail sales came in weaker than expected and fell back -1.6% m/m in the same store measure. Still to come are Italian retail sales numbers and an I/L auction in Germany. Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold in the USD 57-58 range, with the WTI future currently trading at USD 57.50. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner GBPUSD retests again the 6-month low into EU open, at 1.2483. EURGBP remained buoyant, but markets still lacked the muster for a test of the recent six-month high at 0.8992. A 0.3% m/m contraction in the Halifax measure of UK house prices (released Friday) was the latest in a series of data disappointments out of the UK. As for Brexit, the news flow has remains quiet in terms of substantive developments. That will change as soon as the new prime minister, most likely no-deal-Brexit-if-necessary Boris Johnson, takes up the reigns (which will be later in the month). Cable has resistance at 1.2510-20. Next Support at 1.2420. Silver: Despite the decline seen the last 2 days, Silver manage to be held above the 20- and 50-week SMA, sustaining more than 50% of the gains seen in June. Breaching the uptrend Support at 14.90 and also the small bounce up to 15.10 suggest that the corrective pressure is growing again. The RSI is sloping to the upside again but still remains below 50 in the daily chart, while MACD remains within the positive area following a bear cross last week. The key level at $15.10 is now a Resistance whilst traction below the $14.90 would open $14.60 as the next Support. A break above Resistance couls retest the $15.25-$15.35 area. Main Macro Events Today
Fed Chair Powell Speech on Boston (USD, GMT 12:45) JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Markets take a defensive stance ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress and the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. Speaking overnight Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the central bank is debating the risks and benefits of letting the economy run a “little hotter” and while most are still expecting a 25 bp “insurance cut” this month, there are fears that Powell may close the door to rate cut hopes. GER30 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed and US futures slightly in the red, after a mixed session in Asia overnight. KOSPI and KOSDAQ recovered as Japan and South Korea said they are planning talks on the trade tensions. Japan’s new export restrictions on materials vital to South Korea’s tech industry, and hopes of thawing relations helped KOSDAQ to gain 1.6%, elsewhere moves were pretty muted. Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming, but yields are also up across Italy, Spain and Portugal. Trade risks, US-Iran tensions and in Europe the risk of a no-deal Brexit scenario keep markets looking to central banks for support. The WTI future meanwhile surged to $58.76 per barrel, after US data showed another drop in stock piles, which dampened concerns about oversupply. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURGBP has forayed above 0.9000 for the first time since early January while Cable has descended into 27-month low territory. EURGBP has now made this the 8th week out of the last nine where a new higher high has been set. The Pound has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016. USDJPY was stopped in its tracks at 6-week highs of 108.96, the level coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average. Profit taking ensued, which took the pairing to 108.76 lows in early NY and Asia session. In addition to the noted technical resistance, Japanese exporter offers are reportedly parked from the 109.00 level, which should help cap gains going forward. Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020. FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today FOMC minutes of the June meeting were a little anti-climactic following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. However, there were “many” indications that an easier policy stance was the more desired outcome. 10-year Treasury yields dropped -2.3 bp to 2.039% overnight, and reopened soft, stopped at 2.064% tailing out from 2.057%. US stocks rise, yields drop, Powell’s testimony supported rate cut expectations. The S&P 500 briefly topped the 3000 mark for the first time, but the index didn’t manage to hold these levels as stocks generally came off highs. USD lower as Powell signals July FOMC rate cut. The WTI future is trading at $60.57 per barrel, amid reports that Iranian boats attempted to “impede” the passage of a British tanker. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner FX Update: The USD posted fresh lows during the pre-Europe session in Asia as markets continued to readjust Fed easing expectations in the wake of Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, which was consistent with a 25 bp rate cut at the end of this month with an addendum stipulating that the Fed has the tools needed and could use them “aggressively” if necessary. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has declined by about 0.6% over the last day, earlier printing a six-day low at 96.90, while EURUSD rose to a six-day high at 1.1280 and USDJPY posted a six-day low at 107.86. The US currency saw a similar magnitude of decline against other currencies. In the mix has been an unexpected upward revision to June German HICP, to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, while news that Iran tried to intercept a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (London claiming that its navel ship HMS Montrose saw off three Iranian vessels with “verbal warnings”) saw front-month WTI crude prices spike above $60.0, the first time above this level since late May. Main Macro Events Today
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June. Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May. Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00) Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Comments
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
US equities weaker, Treasury yields fell amid flight to safety trades.The concerns that the global economy will slide back into recession amid prolonged trade tensions continue.
Chinese media yesterday suggested that Beijing could be limiting the export of rare earths minerals used in the defence an energy sector in order to put pressure on the US only highlighted that the trade war is likely to escalate further before a deal is reached.
Against that background US GDP numbers and tomorrow’s inflation data will remain in focus with Bloomberg highlighting that the “Fed model” suggests that there is still value in US stocks, but only if the Fed cuts rates.
Oil prices also moved up from recent lows and the WTI future is trading at USD 59.23 per barrel.
In Euorpe, Stock futures are also pointing to a stabilisation and a slight easing of risk aversion, with European futures moving higher in tandem with US futures. P
olitical developments also remain in focus in Europe amid a pretty quiet data calendar, although after the French number yesterday and ahead of German HICP tomorrow, Spanish inflation data may attract some attention.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD – H1 – printed one-week lows of 1.1125, and down for the third straight day. Safe-haven flight into the Dollar has been a driver this week, Worse than expected German unemployment data, along with dovish ECB commentary on rate guidance also weighed on the Euro. Support now comes at last week’s two-year low of 1.1107.
XAUUSD – H1 – drifted to $1,276.25 slightly below the 200-day EMA, while it remains for a third day in the lower Bollinger Bands pattern. The asset is in a descending triangle since year’s peak. Support could be found in the near term at May 22 low, at $1,272.45, a break of this level could retest year’s strong Support at $1,266.25
Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Preliminary GDP is expected to show a revised 2.9% gain in Q1, versus the 3.2% advance figure released last month, following a 2.2% growth rate in Q4.
Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have dropped slightly at 1.2% y/y in May. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.2% m/m in April, compared to -0.6% m/m in March, while Retail Sales are expected to have fallen by 0.8% y/y, compared to 1.0% in March.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Risk aversion eventually won the day on Thursday, as stocks gave back modest early gains and yields drifted lower from opening highs.
Bonds rallied as stocks were pressured by President Trump’s announcement that Mexico will be hit by 5% tariffs that will gradually rise to 25% in a bid to curb immigration.
The latest escalation in the global trade war, coming after China’s manufacturing PMI fell more than expected and is now in contraction territory, added to fears that the world economy is heading for recession and sparked a new rally on global bond markets that left the 10-year Treasury rate down -4.5 bp at 2.168%.
The WTI future fell back to $55.97 per barrel following the EIA inventory data which showed a 300k bbl fall in crude stocks. The Street had been expecting a 1.0 mln bbl decrease, though the API reported a 5.3 mln bbl draw after the close on Wednesday.
European stock futures are selling off in tandem with US futures after a largely weaker session in Asia overnight.
Today’s data calendar will likely underpin the rally in bond markets, with preliminary German and Italian inflation data set to confirm that Eurozone HICP fell back sharply in May, thus adding to the arguments of the doves at the ECB ahead of next week’s council meeting.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
USDCAD – H1 – found support under 1.3490 early in the session, later bouncing to 1.3547 highs (Wednesday’s post-BoC high) as Oil prices fell to fresh 2-plus month lows. WTI crude bottomed at $56.78, down from opening highs near $59.20. Year’s high at 1.3660-1.3664 is now the next Resistance level, with Support now at 1.3481, which was yesterday’s low.
USDJPY – H1 – ran out of steam over 109.90. The pairing has since fallen back under 109.00, taking its cue from Wall Street, which has about squandered all of its earlier gains. The usual talk of Japan exporter offers from the 110.00 mark has been heard, which could have prompted some position squaring ahead of the level. In the bigger picture, trade wars and general risk-off conditions will likely limit further gains going forward. Next Support area between 108.00-108.50.
Main Macro Events Today
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The preliminary German HICP inflation for April jumped to 2.1% y/y from 1.4% y/y. However the reading for May is expected to fall back to 1.5% y/y.
Personal Consumption Expenditures (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April income/consumption report is expected at 0.3% in income. It is also projected to show a 0.3% increase in the PCE chain price index versus a prior 0.2% gain, as well as a 0.2% rise in the core versus unchanged previously. Such gains won’t cause a ripple at the Fed as annual rates remain well below the Fed’s 2% target.
Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Q1 GDP is expected to increase to 1.2%, after it slowed to a 0.4% growth rate in Q4 from 2.0% in Q3 (q/q, saar).
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd June 2019.
[IMG]
Trade and geopolitics will continue to dominate the headlines into June along with PM May’s official resignation on Friday. Top of the agenda next week will be the RBA and ECB policy meetings, but a lot of attention will also be on the contemporaneous data on the May US Jobs report, the global PMI outcomes and the European Q1 GDP.
Monday – 03 June 2019
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to slip into the neutral zone in May, after the weak Manufacturing PMI signalled contraction yesterday.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 53.5 in May from 52.8 in April, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.
Tuesday – 04 June 2019
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail sales are expected to come out lower, standing at 0.2% m/m in April, after drifting to 0.3% increase in March from the 0.9% high in February.
Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 04:30) –A 25 bp reduction to 1.25% is anticipated from the current 1.50% rate setting as the RBA adds accommodation amid a slowing economy and low inflation. The minutes from the early May policy review were dovish-leaning, adding to the expectation that rates will be reduced in June.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT N/A)
Wednesday – 05 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Gross Domestic Product figure is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. The final Q1 Australian GDP is expected to grow to 0.3% from 0.2%.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to edge up to 55.7 in April from a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Thursday – 06 June 2019
Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020. The details on the new TLTRO programme are also due to be released and are likely to be generous, but rate tiering doesn’t seem to be on the agenda for now, as the assessment of the possible side effects on negative interest rates continues.
Friday – 07 June 2019
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.
Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Risk aversion continues to prevail as US Treasuries, JPY , CHF and Gold remain in Bid mode
Treasury yields did come off highs and the 10-year yield backed up 2.9 bps to 2.100%, after risk aversion and comments from Fed’s Bullard, who said a rate cut may be “warranted soon”, underpinned rate cut speculation and fresh gains in Treasuries yesterday.
The RBA cut rates to record lows, as expected. The latter helped the ASX to outperform in Asia and move up 0.25%, but elsewhere stock markets were remained under pressure during the Asian, after the NASDAQ closed with a loss of -1.6% yesterday amid selling in the likes of Facebook and Amazon, with speculation of antitrust probes after the US Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission agreed to split up oversight of tech giants.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USDAUD – H1 – Ran out of steam at 0.6990, but remains over daily pivot at 0.6960 and trades at 0.6982 as USD continues to soften into Europeansession. R1 and the psychological 0.7000 next key resistance. R2 at 0.7015 would need a significant deterioration in USD today.
USDJPY – H1 – Keeps the bid as 108.00 handle is breached once more. S1 sits at 107.80, S2 at 107.56 and S3 at 107.24. Pivot Point and 20 period moving average at 108.10, R1 at 108.37 and R2 108.68. RSI remains north of OS at 34.7, Stochastics in OS zone all of Asian session and remain there. Lower Bollinger band 107.65.
Main Macro Events Today
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for May is expected to drop back to 1.4% y/y from 1.7%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 1.3% y/y.
RBA Chair Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 09:30) – Due to speak at the RBA Dinner following today’s meeting – Q&A expected.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 13:55) – Due to speak in Chicago about Federal Reserve’s policy strategy, tools, and communication practices.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock markets struggled during the Asian session, with mainland China bourses underperforming.
Discussions between the US and Mexico ended without a breakthrough last night, which capped risk appetite, and stock markets struggled for direction during the Asian session.
GER30 futures as well as US futures are also slightly in the red, despite better than expected German manufacturing data at the start of the session.
German orders data better than expected, with manufacturing orders rising 0.3% m/m in April, while March data was revised up to 0.8% m/m from the 0.6% m/m reported initially. Still, a better than expected number, although the German manufacturing PMI is still firmly stuck in contraction territory and a real rebound doesn’t seem to be in sight.
The WTI future remains pressured by EIA inventory data yesterday, but has come up to now $51.71 per barrel, after falling to a low of $57.20 in the wake of the report yesterday.
Geopolitical trade tensions continue to provide a risk backdrop that is keeping bond markets underpinned amid growing conviction of additional central bank support.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
NZDUSD & NZDJPY – were the biggest movers and shakers yesterday in the forex markets, with the pairing and cross showing respective 0.6% and 0.7% gains at prevailing levels, with both modestly off highs. The outperformance of the Kiwi dollar, with buying having been catalyzed by RBNZ assistant governor, Hawkesby, vaulted the pair to a 4-week high at 0.7007. Overnight the pair turned lower to 0.6610, However however this could be a correction of the overbought asset. The overall outlook remains bullish as the asset extends Bollingers to the upside.
USDJPY – H1 – fell to 108.04 overnight, while the pair has since rebounded to 108.15 ahead of then London open. Given the slide in Treasury yields however, further upside for the pairing is likely to be limited. The next support level comes at the January 10 low of 107.77.
Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The final Q1 results in the Eurozone are expected to remain unchanged, at an annualised rate of 1.2%, and at 0.4% in quarterly basis.
Event of the week – ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy rates on hold at the June council meeting, but the presser is likely to be very dovish, with the guidance on rates likely to be pushed well into 2020.
Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The trade deficit is expected to widen slightly in April to -$50.6 bln from -$50.0 bln in March.
Initial Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) Initial jobless claims for the week of May 31 are estimated to fall to 213k, after a 3k rise to 215k in the week of May 25.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2019.
FX News Today
Stock markets traded mixed in Asia, with Chinese markets underperforming, ahead of key US jobs data today.
Hopes that Mexico tariffs may be postponed helped Wall Street to close higher, but Vice President Pence said the US still plans to impose tariffs on Mexico next week ahead of further talks today.
China’s central bank head sounded relaxed on the Yuan, but stressed that the PBOC still had lots of policy room if the trade war worsens.
CSI and Shanghai Comp still lost -0.9% and -1.2% respectively and the tech heavy Shenzen Comp fell back more than 2% as Facebook announced that it will no longer preinstall its app on Huawei phones, spelling more trouble for the beleaguered tech company.
US Stock futures around 0.1% higher and the WTI future continued to climb up from the lows seen in the wake of EIA data Wednesday and is now trading at $53.28 per barrel.
Ahead of EU open, German trade surplus narrowed as exports slumped, while German industrial production corrected -1.9% m/m in April.
European stock futures are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the DAX futures, which also ignored the weak April numbers
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD – has been consolidating in a narrow range in the mid 1.1200s, consolidating the steep losses from 1.1306 that were seen during the London PM/NY morning session yesterday. It is expected that the Dollar would likely hold up better than the Euro in the scenario that further sustained bouts of risk aversion is seen in global markets in the months ahead, with US Treasuries offering the highest risk-free return around, regardless of prevailing market discounting of Fed rate cuts. The pair remains in a bear trend which has been evolving since early 2018. This was reaffirmed by the new two-year low that was printed last month at 1.1107. Resistance comes in at 1.1300-06 and 1.1323-25.
Main Macro Events Today
Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – Along with Thursday’s employment data, payrolls are important in gauging how many people are employed in non-agricultural businesses. Jobs are expected to have increased in May, at 190k following a 263k increase in April. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, while average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%.
Employment and Unemployment (CAD, GMT 12:30) – After the 106.5k surge in April employment, which notched a new all-time record 1-month gain, the Canadian unemployment rate is expected to have increased further in May.
Support and Resistance levels
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th June 2019.
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Moving into a new week, the focus is now squarely on the UK mess and the Conservative Party’s leadership contest. Market attention is also honed in on the G20 meeting but also on the US economic data which will be scrutinized for any sign that trade uncertainties are impacting amid a slowing in economic growth.
Monday – 10 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (JPY, Sunday GMT 23:50) – Growth in Japan is expected to have increased by 0.4% in the first quarter, slightly lower than last time, reflecting weaker than expected household spending. The annualised outcome is seen at 1.8% after the stronger than expected 2.1% growth.
Trade Balance (CNY, GMT 02:00) – May’s exports are anticipated to contract to 3.8% y/y, from the 2.7% y/y. The trade balance should grow to $20.5bln in May from $13.83B in March. This report will be consistent with ongoing slowing in China’s domestic economy (falling imports) and the impact of the trade war with the US (drop in exports).
Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The two indices are expected to have fallen back to 0.1% m/m and 0.2% m/m in April, confirming that the sector is back in contraction.
Tuesday – 11 June 2019
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.
ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.
Wednesday – 12 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – May’s Chinese CPI is expected to grow to 2.7% y/y following the rise of 2.5% y/y in April.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.
Thursday – 13 June 2019
Employment Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is projected to have flipped at 5.1% in May, Employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 14K compared to 28.4K last month.
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation fell back in April to 1.3% y/y from 2.1% y/y. In May however, it is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y again.
SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.
Friday – 14 June 2019
Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session, once again led by China after the US-Mexico deal also revived hopes of a US-Sino deal, despite Trump’s comments.
President Trump: China deal is going to work out; but no deal means more tariffs.He said that he is ready to impose another round of tariffs on Chinese imports if there is no progress in talks with China’s President at the June 28-29 G20 summit.
The expectations that China will ramp up stimulus programs to boost the flagging economy were boosted by news that China will allow local government to use proceeds from special bonds as capital for major investment projects.
European stock futures are also moving higher as are US futures.
US futures are up 0.3-0.4% and the WTI future is trading at $53.74 per barrel.
The yen crosses lifted higher as the Japanese currency lost ground as the relief rally on easing trade tensions in equity markets continued.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USDJPY lifted by over 30 pips in the hours after the Tokyo fixing today. USDJPY printed an intraday high at 108.64, but has so far remained shy of yesterday’s 11-day peak at 108.71. This week it has breached above its prior-week peak for only the second time out of the last 7 weeks. The pair could continue to hold a better footing for now, especially with the planned meeting between top-level US and Chinese officials at the upcoming G20 serving to arrest what had started seem an irrevocable downward spiral in relations between Washington and Beijing. It has support 108.32-35, and resistance at 108.91-94.
EURUSD moved back above the 1.1300 mark, though well under Friday’s near 3-month high of 1.1347. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with resistance at Friday’s high, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.
Gold Futures retreated from Friday’s near 4-month high of $1,347.70, falling to $1,325. The moderate sell-off was driven by the return of risk-on conditions. The news that the US would not impose tariffs on Mexican goods helped the Dollar recover and saw yields and equity markets move higher, all gold-negatives.
Main Macro Events Today
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-included figure are expected to rise to 3.4% y/y in the three months to April, up from 3.2%y/y in March.
ILO Unemployment Rate(GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK unemployment is expected slightly higher at 3.9%, after it unexpectedly fell to 3.8% in March, which was the lowest rate seen since December 1974.
Producer Price Index ex Food & energy (USD, GMT 12:30) – A flat rate is anticipated for headline PPI in May, and a 0.2% rise in the core index.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Market sentiment turned cautious again ahead of the G-20 summit.
Bund yields declined from the off, as Treasuries rallied following President Trump’s criticism.
President Trump said it is he who is holding up the China trade deal until the country returns to agreed terms. He also stepped up his criticism of the Fed, saying rates are “way too high“.
He also stated that the EUR and other currencies devalued against the Dollar.
Stock market sentiment turned cautious again and Asian markets are mostly in the red, as are European and US futures.
This underpinned Treasury yields and saw yields coming down again. A -1.74% decline in the Hang Seng led broad losses in Asian stock markets, amid protests in the city and signs of rising funding costs.
The WTI future fell back below the $53 per barrel market.
The European data calendar is focusing on UK inflation numbers and ECB’s Draghi is set to speak amid signs that council members are split on the assessment of inflation expectations.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD is trading at 1.335 maintained a narrow trading band, with the Dollar overall largely in a holding pattern, following fairly steep losses seen over the past week or so. The pricing in of US rate cuts will limit EURUSD’s downside potential going forward, though the ECB’s dovish policy stance will limit the Euro’s advances. As a result, range trade mentality may be in the cards for the time being. Support comes at Friday’s 1.1252 bottom, with Resistance at Friday’s high of 1.1347, then the 200-day moving average at 1.1367.
Main Macro Events Today
ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 08:15)
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a 0.1% gain in headline CPI with a 0.2% increase in core prices, following respective April readings of 0.3% and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y gain of 1.9%, down from 2.0% in April, while core prices should rise 2.1%, a steady pace from April. Overall, the inflation outlook remains benign, though with an updraft into the end of Q1 and early Q2 from a petroleum price rebound that lost steam into May.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Treasury yields have fallen back -1.2 bp to 2.108%, as weaker than expected CPI numbers out of the U.S. yesterday adding to speculation of rate cuts in the US.
Fed funds futures price in about 80% chance for rate cut by by end of July.
Asian bond markets were mostly supported, although JGBs corrected and the 10-year yield moved up 0.5 bp to -0.118% as a stronger Yen curbed investor appetite for Japanese assets.
Stock markets mostly remained under pressure in Asia, with the Hang Seng declining -0.79% as large political demonstrations continue to unsettle investors.
In Europe German HICP for May was confirmed at just 1.3% y/y this morning, which together with the decline in market based indicators for inflation expectations will also keep easing speculation alive as stock markets remain weighed down by geopolitical trade jitters.
Oil prices continued to decline, with trade jitters continuing to weigh on sentiment and the WTI future is currently trading at USD 51.43 per barrel, up from yesterday’s lows, following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
WTI crude fell at $50.70 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 2.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 0.5 mln bbl decrease, though the API revealed a 4.9 mln bbl build after the close on Tuesday. Overall, a fairly bearish report, which added further pressure on the USOIL downtrend. In the near-term the outlook remains bearish as well, while only a break above 52.80 could suggest a short term reversal to the upside.
Main Macro Events Today
SNB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (CHF, GMT 07:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. However, the recent strengthening of the Swiss franc will have rekindled SNB concerns of its disinflationary impact.
Unemployment Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Initial jobless claims for the week of June 7 are estimated to fall to 217k, after holding at 218k in the week of June 1.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Tense geopolitical events in the Mid East injected some risk in the market, providing a boost to bonds after reports surfaced overnight that two oil tanker were damaged off the coast of Iran.
Stock markets traded mixed in Asia with Hong Kong and China bourses under-performing.
Australian yields marked new record lows amid concern that geopolitical trade tensions will hit global growth and prompt central banks to step up easing measures.
The FTSE 100 future is posting fractional gains as Brexit supporter Boris Johnson emerges as the clear favorite to win the leadership contest in the conservative party and succeed Teresa May.
Investors await data releases that are expected to show ongoing weakness in the economy.
The WTI future is at USD 52.16 per barrel after yesterday’s attacks.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD headed to 1-week lows of 1.1269 at mid-morning, and it is now traded higher at 1.1277 area. Trade this week has been centered on the 1.1300 mark, and further consolidation is expected ahead of next week’s FOMC policy announcement. There is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is expected to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters. Until then, EURUSD can be expected to remain between its 50-day moving average at 1.1219, and its 200-day moving average at 1.1363.
USDJPY has been rangebound,topping at 108.53 before later ebbing back to 108.23 lows. Treasury yields however, continue under pressure following benign CPI on Wednesday, and soft import prices early on Thursday, putting some pressure on the Dollar. As a result, USDJPY has been nearly static. Further consolidation is expected into next Week’s Fed policy announcement.
Main Macro Events Today
Retail Sales and Industrial Production (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.6% for May and 0.3% for ex-auto sales, following a -0.2% figure for the April headline and a 0.1% increase in ex-autos. Industrial production is projected at 0.6% in May, after a -0.5% reading in April.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary result of the Sentiment Index is expected to show a return to April’s number below 100, and more specifically to 98.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th June 2019.
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A policy-packed week, with monetary policy meetings in the world’s major economies (Fed, BoJ, BoE), and the potential for guidance regarding future interest rate actions, albeit cuts in the prevailing rates are expected. In the UK, the voting race begins for the next Prime Minister. On the data front, focus turns on inflation and Retail sales.
Monday – 17 June 2019
Inflation Report Hearings (GBP, GMT N/A) – The BoE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament Treasury Committee.
Tuesday – 18 June 2019
RBA Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA Minutes are expected to shed some light regarding an eventual rate hike (RBA is cautiously optimistic on growth and inflation).
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.
Wednesday – 19 June 2019
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Thursday – 20 June 2019
Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) –The BoJ should maintain its current extraordinary level of stimulus as they wait and see how global growth progresses this year. Hence policy is expected steady once again. Among the core central banks, the BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”.
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Friday – 21 June 2019
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively...
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Wall Street was managed modest gains, supported by a better than 1% rise in industrials which offset a drop in materials. The markets generally shrugged off a sharp drop in the Empire State manufacturing index and a weaker than expected NAHB housing market index.
Asia stock market gains were capped by caution ahead of the Fed meeting.
Topix and Nikkei lost -0.88% and -0.81% respectively as the Yen strengthened, the Hang Seng continued to recover and moved up 0.70% after being pressured by political protests last week.
The ASX gained 0.54% after getting cut a boost from RBA meeeting minutes signaling another rate cut could be underway.
GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed.
US futures are slightly in the red.
Speculation that the Fed will signal rate cuts is mounting and in Europe ECB officials seem to be readying further easing measures, while the BoE is widely expected to remain on hold amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
AUDUSD also fell to a 5-month low, at 0.6833. The underperformance of the Australian follow was catalyzed by the release of the RBA minutes to the June policy meeting, which saw the central bank cut its cash rate to a record low of 1.25%. The minutes showed that the RBA is of a mind to ease policy again, as soon as July, given prevailing concerns about unemployment and disinflation. AUDJPY pegged below 3-year lows at 74.50, hence next Support is at June 2016 low at 72.40 .
GBPJPY has hit fresh lows, and the yen has remained bid amid a backdrop of continued sputtering in global stock markets. GBPJPY daily volatility has fallen from 140 pips in February to less than 120 today. Key Support levels for both pairs sit at 133.80 and 132.30 respectively.
Main Macro Events Today
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to fall in May to just 0.3%m/m from 0.7%, whilst the overall inflation is expected to stand unchanged at 1.2%y/y.
ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for June is expected to rise slightly at -0.5 compared to -2.1 last month, however the negative reading means pessimists once again outnumber optimists and that escalation in US-Sino trade relations affects the outlook.
BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:00)
ECB’s President Draghi speech (EUR, GMT 14:00)
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Expectations that global central banks will add further stimulus to underpin the global economy and fresh hopes that global trade tensions will be resolved through talks after all underpinned stock markets during the Asian session.
US President Trump tweeted yesterday that he will meet China’s President Xi Jinping at the G-20 meeting, which helped to lift CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 1.96% and 1.50% respectively.
Bond markets closed below highs yesterday and the gains are likely to erode further today as the focus shifts to the FOMC announcement.
GER30 and UK100 futures are slightly in the red with profit taking and renewed caution capping the room for further gains.
German PPI data at the start of the session came in lower than anticipated.
The WTI future benefited from fresh trade talk hopes and is trading marginally above the USD 54 per barrel mark.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USDJPY has drifted moderately lower, to levels around 108.26. The dip reflects a pick up in demand for the Yen. Overall, directional impulse has been limited in forex markets with participants hunkered down ahead of the Fed policy announcement later on Wednesday. All eyes will be on the Fed, where there is risk of disappointment given the level of expectation for a strong dovish guidance. USDJPY is presently sitting near the midway of a choppy sideways range that’s been unfolding for nearly 3 weeks now. The range over this time has been 107.81 – 108.80. Support comes in at 108.00-06.
USDCAD – The Canadian dollar, buoyed by a 4.5%-plus rally in Oil prices over the last day, has seen some moderate outperformance, which has taken USDCAD to a 3-session low at 1.3365. Underpinning Oil prices (aside from Mideast geopolitics) and equity markets have been hopes for a strongly dovish signal from the Fed today, yesterday’s dovish shift by the ECB chief, and news that President Trump will be meeting with President Xi at the upcoming G20, and that ministerial-level trade negotiations will be recommencing. For the pair, Support holds at 1.3354 and 1.3336, while Resistance is at 1.3390-1.3400.
Main Macro Events Today
Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Prices are expected to move up in May, with overall inflation to increase at 2.2% y/y, compared to 2.1% y/y last month.
Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – May CPI is expected to run at a 2.0% y/y pace, matching the 2.0% clip in April and coming in just ahead of the 1.9% clip in March. Hence, the focus is on the “core” CPI figures.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (USD, GMT 18:00) –Fed easing expectations have plateaued (Fed funds futures now fully discounting a 25 bp rate cut by the July FOMC). Although, there is not much of a chance for a rate move next week, but the FOMC is anticipated to make an important change in its statement, removing the word “patient” and likely replacing it with language similar to Powell’s comment from June 4 where he said the Fed will be “closely monitoring the implications of these developments” on trade and other matters.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The Q1 GDP is expected to grow at 0.7% compared to 0.6% last quarter, while the annualised rate should fall to 1.8% from 2.3%.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock markets continued to rally in Asia, underpinned by hopes of further easing and progress on the trade front at the G-20 meeting and European stockfutures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.
The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, but highlighted downside risks, especially for overseas economies.
Hopes of further central bank stimulus and progress on the trade front at the G20 meeting meanwhile are keeping stock markets underpinned and Nikkei and Topix moved up 0.32% and 0.64% respectively.
The Dollar has rotated lower after the Fed.
FOMC held rates steady as expected, but shifted to an unambiguously dovish gear, noting that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased” while issuing a larger than expected downgrade in the dots as Chairman Powell refrained from using “transitory” to describe low inflation, marking a downshift in the inflation view.
Some follow-through Dollar selling looks likely even in the London interbank market though increasingly dovish arguments at the ECB and other major central banks should curtail the US currency’s downside potential.
The WTI future is 54.67 trading at USD 54.57 per barrel.
In Europe, the BoE is also widely expected to keep monetary policy settings unchanged, but markets will be looking for signs that the BoE will at least drop the tightening bias as the global backdrop deteriorates
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD printed 1.1283 highs, up from opening lows of 1.1225. The modest rally has been attributed to position adjustments ahead and post the FOMC announcement. Next Resistance for the asset holdws at 1.1288 and the round 1.1300. Support is set at 1.1245-1.1254.
USDCAD – The Canadian Dollar, was the biggest mover, dropping by nearly 1% in making a four-month low at 1.3223. A strong rally in oil prices has catalysed a strong bid for the Canadian dollar. The WTI crude prices are up by nearly 3% since the Fed’s announcement, and are up by 5.7% from week-ago levels. Hence since the pair has broke the Support at Friday’s low ,the strong bullish mix of developments for CAD, opens the doors towards February-March lows, between the 1.3060-1.3140 area. Immediate Support meanwhile, is set at the round 1.3200 level.
Main Macro Events Today
Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 08:30) – UK sales are expected to slip -0.5% in May, with a big yearly slip at 2.7%, following a 5.2% figure for the April.
Interest rate Decision and Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00) – BoE should remain on hold now until the Brexit D-day, while the Brexit process has essentially been frozen in motion as the Conservatives go about the business of selecting a new party leader/prime minister. If the transition runs smoothly we could see another 25 bp hike quickly thereafter. The consensus forecasts suggest no change in the policy rate in this meeting and an unchanged 9-0 MPC voting.
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to fall to 12.0 in June from 17.8 in May, versus a 2-year low of 3.7 in March. The Philly Fed index is seen falling to 11.0 in June from 16.6 in May, versus a 33-month low of -4.1 in February. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st June 2019.
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FX News Today
Thursday’s rally on Wall Street failed to boost Asian markets, which struggled as the impact of easing hopes following dovish comments from Fed, BoJ and ECB faded and trade angst returned.
US-Iran tensions also weighed on sentiment. The New York Times reported that US President Trump had actually approved military strikes after Iran shot down a US military drone, but pulled back from launching the attacks.
The Nikkei fell back -0.8%, although the Shanghai Comp still managed a gain of 0.5% amid lingering hopes of progress on US-Sino trade talks ahead of the leaders meeting at the sidelines of the G-20 meeting next week.
The USA500 managed a record high yesterday as markets position for rate cuts, but US futures are slightly in the red after a cautious session in Asia and GER30 futures are also down.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USOIL advanced as much as 6%, up over $3, at June highs of $57.37. The downing of a US drone in the Persian Gulf got the rally rolling, with gains since coming following a Trump tweet, which just said “Iran made a very big mistake!”Following the tweet, prices moved up from near $56.20 to session highs. Immediate Support today hold at $56.00, while on the break of it 55.20 could be retested. On the flipside, Resistance $58.50-59.00 as stated in our post yesterday.
Cable has lost upside traction, with the pair having settled 25-35 pips below the highs. The BoE trimmed its Q2 GDP growth estimate to 0.0% q/q from 0.2% while stating that inflation remains well anchored. Cable earlier printed an 8-day high at 1.2727. The Pound has fared less well against the Euro, losing ground today against the common currency. The UK currency has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016, and this is not expected to change. Cable has resistance at 1.2730 and Support at 1.2665.
Main Macro Events Today
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – The Preliminary Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and Eurozone are expected to increase in June, to 44.5 and 48.1 respectively.
Retail Sales and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to slip 1% in April, with a 0.9% gain excluding autos, following a 1.1% figure for the March headline and a 1.7% increase ex-autos.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to increase in June, to 52.5 and 53.2 respectively.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.
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Last week of June ahead, with a caution turning into Osaka G20 meeting and the coveted Trump-Xi meeting. Market attention is also honed in any trade escalations but also on next week’s inflation data which could have an impact on ECB’s next move.
Monday – 24 June 2019
German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – June German IFO business confidence is expected to hold fell at 97.3, after it unexpectedly fell back to 97.9 in May from 99.2.
Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 22:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $5.32 billion in May, compared to $5.48 billion in April.
Tuesday – 25 June 2019
OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)
Wednesday – 26 June 2019
Interest rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 02:00) – RBNZ held rates steady at 1.75% in May, and this is expected to remain the case again in next week’s meeting. As Orr stated “We expect to keep the OCR at this expansionary level for a considerable period of time.” So no change in the rate setting is anticipated into 2019.
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.
Thursday – 27 June 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.
US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.
Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grew at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.
Friday – 28 June 2019
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.
US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.
Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Treasury yields extended declines in a quiet and cautious Monday action.
The front end and belly of the curve mostly led the way on safe haven flows and as the FOMC’s more dovish than expected twist last Wednesday continued to support.
Equities were little changed after a narrow, range bound trade.
Tensions with Iran continued to drive cash into the safety of Treasuries, especially after President Trump announced he was placing more sanctions against its supreme leader and other top Iran officials has closed the path to a diplomatic solution (on the Ayatollah Khamenei, personally).
US futures are down -0.2-0.5% as traders await Powell’s speech today.
TheWTI future saw a high of $57.98 per barrel before pulling back slightly to now $57.45.
Wall Street was in a more wait-and-see mode on the geopolitical risks, and as global markets await the U.S.-China trade talks at the G20 later in the week.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD printed fresh 3-month highs just over 1.1411, up from 1.1380 lows at the open. The Euro moved to session highs after the weaker Dallas Fed index. The pairing ran into sellers at 1.1400, seeing a pullback to 1.1386 lows. Prospects for a July Fed rate cut continue to weigh on the Dollar, though soft EU data are likely to push the ECB toward further stimulus over the next few months, largely offsetting potential Fed policy easing. The March 20 high of 1.1448 is the next resistance level.
Gold has printed five-plus year highs of $1,439.11, up from opening lows of $1,418.17. US/Iran tensions, along with potential for a Fed rate cut in July, and a weaker Dollar have all combined to put a bid under gold prices. The contract can be expected to remain in buy-the-dip mode for the foreseeable future, and continue to benefit from safe-haven flows on any fresh clashes in the Mideast.
Main Macro Events Today
NO OPEC Meeting in June –The dates of the separate OPEC ministerial meeting and of OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, have been changed to July 1-2, from June 25-26.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Consumer Confidence is expected to slip to 133.5 in June from 134.1 in May, versus a 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high.
Fed’s Chair Powell speech (USD, GMT 17:00)
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th June 2019.
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FX News Today
A less than dovish comment from Fed dove Bullard, with the Chairman Powell soothed a bit, and along with the usual trade uncertainty and US-Iran concerns, all combined with softer US data to take Wall Street and Treasury yields lower overnight.
Hence in Asia session, the rally on bond markets run out of steam and stocks struggled as optimism on an immediate rate cut from the Fed and a breakthrough in US-Sino trade talk fades.
Fed Chair Powell repeated the phrase the Fed is “closely monitoring“. He highlighted downside risks to the economy again, but didn’t go beyond last week’s guidance on rates.
Presidents Trump and Xi are likely to meet on Saturday, where they may agree to reopen trade talks.
Source stories meanwhile suggest that the US is willing to suspend the next round of China tariffs if trade talks resume, but Trump and Xi Jinping are not expected to agree on a detailed trade deal at the G-20 meeting.
Against that background stock markets struggled during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei corrected -0.71% and -0.70% respectively
The RBNZ kept rates at record lows, but said further cuts may be needed.
The WTI future is trading at $59.10 per barrel amid US-Iran tensions.
German consumer confidence deteriorates. It fell back to 9.8 in the advance July reading. This is the lowest number since April 2017.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURCHF has found a footing into 1.10 area after coming under significant pressure last week, in the wake of ECB President Draghi’s eyebrow raising dovish shift, which has been the most notable of a growing chorus of dovish voices on the central bank’s governing council. Assuming the ECB remains on the path of further monetary policy easing ,the EURCHF is expected to retain a declining bias. The SNB’s -0.75% deposit rate and threat of tactical intervention hasn’t been sufficient to arrest recent appreciation of the Franc.
Main Macro Events Today
ECB’s Mersch speech (EUR, GMT 08:00)
BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 09:00)
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to be flat in May, after a -2.1% figure in April. Transportation orders should fall -0.5%. Boeing orders fell to just zero from a dismal 4 in April, with the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Treasuries were weaker Wednesday after a poorly subscribed 5-year auction, while aggressive Fed rate cut expectations continued to be priced out.
Also other bond markets in Asia, which were under pressure as stocks moved higher.
Markets are pinning their hopes on Saturday’s meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping at the side-lines of the G-20 meeting with reports that the U. is willing to hold off further tariffs for now helping to bolster confidence.
At the same time, President Trump threatened additional China tariffs if there is no agreement.
Still, without a firm and formal agreement in place risks of set backs remain high, especially as US.-Iran tensions and in Europe no-deal Brexit scenarios provide a risky backdrop.
European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after broad gains in Asia.
WTI crude surged to 4-week highs on API data showing big US inventory drop.
USD is trading mixed today after rallying Tuesday on Fed’s walk back of dovish guidance.
JPY down, Dollar bloc currencies up quite sharply on US-China optimism.
GBP is underperforming again on persisting Brexit related demand-supply imbalance.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD rallied to 1.1391 highs, after bouncing from the session low at 1.1348, which is also the 200-day moving average. The pairing has since run into sellers in front of the 1.1400 mark, settling in under 1.1360. Softer US data weighed on the Dollar, though Fed Chair Powell’s more neutral stance on policy may tone down market’s aggressive easing potential, likely to limit EUR gains going forward. In addition, increasing prospects for further ECB easing should also keep a cap on EURUSD.
AUDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising about 0.5% in printing a 16-day high at 75.62. The Yen weaken as markets opted for risk-on positioning ahead of the G20 summit. USDJPY posted an eight-day high at 108.13. This price action came as Chinese markets led broader gains across Asian stock markets, which propelled the MSCI Asia-Pacific index up by 0.6%. Meanwhile, as AUDJPY seems overbought outside from upper Bollinger Bands pattern, Some correction could be seen with immediate Support at 75.33. Resistance holds at 75.67 and 75.80.
Main Macro Events Today
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to be unchanged to 1.3% y/y.
US Final Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the Q1 GDP growth rate is expected unchanged from 3.1%, with downward revisions of -$6 bln for service consumption and -$1 bln for factory inventories.
Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have grown at 1.3% y/y in June, and at 1.2% y/y ex Fresh Food. Industrial Production should post a 2.6% decline y/y in May, compared to -1.1% in April.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th June 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock markets headed south during the Asian session.
Trade headlines continue to drive market sentiment and fresh doubts that there will be a breakthrough on the trade front at the highly anticipated meeting between US President Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping saw investors heading for cover again.
Trump repeated threats of more tariffs and with global equities still more than 5% higher on the month, the risk of disappointment is capping markets for now.
If there are at least further negotiations and central banks remain on course to add more stimulus, it should be a constructive start to the second half of the year.
Topix and JP225 lost -0.25% and -0.50% respectively so far.
US futures are trading narrowly mixed, with American lenders gaining overnight after announcing share buybacks in the wake of annual Fed stress tests.
The WTI future is at $59.19 per barrel after seeing a high of $59.54 overnight.
In Europe, peripheral markets are outperforming and Eurozone spreads narrowing as a sharp drop in German import price inflation at the start of the session added to pressure on the ECB to implement further easing.
Eurozone stock futures are narrowly mixed.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
BTCUSD retreated further overnight, with the contract bottoming at $10,228.24, down from Wednesday highs of $13,821. This sell off has been measured as a 25% plunged. The sell off started on the failure of Coinbase website. Technically, the decline came after the asset reached the 61.8% retracement level from year’s high, while it is currently retesting the 50% Fib. level. Hence as the asset was overbought such a correction is technically acceptable. If the pair manages to sustain a move above the 38.2% Fib level along with a move above the midpoint from this week’s decline (i.e. 12000.00), could spread hopes for another attempt higher again.
USDJPY fell briefly under 107.70. Word that China would require preconditions for the talks weighed the pairing down, though moved off its lows as NEC chief Kudlow said there were no pre-conditions to the talks. Wall Street gains limited the pairing’s losses, though soft Treasury yields put a cap on USDJPY. Resistance is now at the 20-day moving average of 108.08, with Support at the overnight low of 107.55.
Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Q1 GDP could be seen falling to 0.2%q/q from the preliminary reading seen in May at 0.5%q/q. The ONS stats office noted there was a “dramatic fall” in UK car production in April, which was pinned squarely on Brexit uncertainty.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The preliminary Euro Area CPI for June is anticipated to rise to 1.3% y/y from 1.2%y/y last month. The core inflation is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.8% y/y.
US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 0.3% gain is seen in personal income in May after a 0.5% increase in April, alongside a 0.3% rise in May consumption.
Chicago PMI and Michigan Index (USD, GMT 13:45-14:00) – The Chicago PMI should be 55.0 from 54.2 last month. Michigan Index is the main US consumer confidence index and it is expected to remain flat following the drop to 97.9 from an 8-month high of 100.0 in May.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th June 2019.
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An important week is coming up as we will have an outcome of the well anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, while finally the 1st and 2nd of July will see OPEC+ members meet in Vienna. In addition, NFPs will be out on Friday and a broad range of PMIs and other early indicators are expected during the week.
Monday – 01 July 2019
OPEC Meetings – OPEC meetings are usually held in Vienna and are attended by representatives from 15 oil-rich nations.
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to hold into the neutral zone in June.
Markit Manufacturing PMI (EUR and GBP, GMT 07:55-08:30) – In June, the German PMI is expected to remain unchanged in the negative region, while UK PMI is seen strengthening at 52.0 from 49.4 last month.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 51.5 in June from 52.1 in May, compared to a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Overall, we’ve seen a stabilization in sentiment since the late-2018 pullback.
Tuesday – 02 July 2019
Interest rate Decision and Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to cut its cash rate by 25 bp to 1.00%. The CPI y/y rate came in at 1.3% from 1.8%, as the RBA targets underlying CPI at 2%-3%. The RBA stated this month that a rate cut “would be appropriate” should inflation remain weak. Australian OIS pricing is fully discounting a cut in the cash rate. Nevertheless, the Australian economy remains the most exposed developed-nation economy to China.
Wednesday – 03 July 2019
United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Thursday – 04 July 2019
United States – Independence Day
Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 0.2% for May, after falling to -0.1% last month.
Friday – 05 July 2019
NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours-worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd July 2019.
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FX News Today
Australia’s 10-year rate fell -2.7 bp, as the RBA slashed the cash rate by 25 bps to a record low of 1.00%, citing the slowdown in global trade.
US President Trump may have signalled that talks with China have already restarted, but the US reportedly also expanded a list of European products that may get hit with tariffs, which highlights that the restart of US-Sino trade talks doesn’t mark the end of global trade tensions.
Stock markets already turned cautious again in Asian trade.
US futures are marginally higher and the WTI future is trading at $59.13 per barrel.
European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures after a lacklustre session in Asia.
Meanwhile weaker than expected German retail sales at the start of the session confirmed that the weakness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to the rest of the economy, which will keep the ECB on course for further easing.
EU leaders will meet again to resume discussion on the next president of the European Commission and other top posts that will become vacant this year, including the ECB presidency.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
AUDUSD jumped to 0.6985 at the Asia session amid the RBA announcement, after the decline seen yesterday on Dollar strength. The asset manage to held above 20- and 50-day SMA. A trade above 0.7000 which is the midpoint on yesterday’s decline could suggest further upside path for AUDUSD. Support comes at 2-day low, at 0.6955. A shift back to the latter could open the doors towards June’s values.
EURUSD faded to 7-session lows of 1.1275, down from the 1.1360 highs seen ahead of the NY open. Weaker European PMI data, along with more dovish ECBspeak, saw sentiment toward the Euro soured some. For the USD side of the equation, markets have toned down their Fed rate cut expectations, leaving the odds of a 50 bp cut in July a long shot. As a result, the Dollar has posted gains, helped by the trade truce agreed over the weekend. There are still likely to be further trade fireworks going forward, but as long as the US economy continues to outperform rivals, USD downside should be limited going forward.
Main Macro Events Today
Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 09:30) –The June construction PMI is seen rebounding to 49.4 after 48.6 in May.
Manufacturing PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Markit Manufacturing PMI in the Canada is expected to come out at about 49.0 in June,slightly below the 49.1 in May.
BoE’s Governor Carney speech (GBP, GMT 14:05)
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd July 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock market sentiment turned cautious again during the Asian session.
EU leaders formally nominate IMF head Lagarde to head the ECB and replace Mario Draghi. Lagarde, is clearly a much more dovish option in comparison to Weidmann, who has been the leader of the hawks on the council.
Lagarde’s nomination was enough for investors to price in even more easing and asset purchases, despite the fact that a Bloomberg report suggested that the majority of policy makers are not ready to make a more in July and prefer to wait for the updated forecasts in September. EGB futures have extended gains on the news.
BoE’s Carney flags downside risks from trade. The BoE head repeated that the central bank sees the need for rate hikes if Brexit is smooth, he added that markets are giving more weight to a no deal scenario and that the BoE will reassess Brexit and trade risks at the August meeting.
The US’ threat of additional tariffs on European goods highlighted that geopolitical trade tensions are far from over.
The private China services PMI slowed to a four month low in June, adding to signs that much of the damage has already been done.
Nikkei and Hang Seng lost -0.72% and -0.26% respectively and the Shanghai Comp is down -0.86%.
President Trump plans to nominate Christopher Waller and Judy Shelton to the Fed Board of Governors to fill the two vacancies.
GER30 and UK100 futures are currently posting slight gains, underpinned also by easing hopes, while U.S. futures are in the red, after a largely weaker close in Asia.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USDJPY has come under some pressure, dropping to 107.52. Modest risk-off conditions have weighed, while the sentiment boost seen after the US/China trade truce appears to have worn off, leaving the reality that it may well be quite some time before agreements are made, and tariffs come off. Until some progress is made, it appears USDJPY upside will be limited.
XAUUSD rallied to 1437.68 high,, underpinned by easing hopes and by geopolitical trade tensions which clearly are far from over. AMid EU open Gold reversed slightly lower to 1421 area and it is currently consolidating above it. Support holds at 1421, 1413 and 1407.55. Resistance levels come at 1428.55, 1431.80 and 1440.
Main Macro Events Today
United States – Independence Day – Early close at 13:00 GMT
Services PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) –The June Services PMI is seen stable at 51 m/m.
Trade Balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – It is expected to widen in May to -$54.6 bln (median -$53.5 bln) from -$50.8 bln in April.
ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – Employment change is seen spiking to 150k in the number of employed people in June, compared to the weak 27k reading seen last month.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 56.0 in June from 56.9 in May and a 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th July 2019.
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FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields closed at 1.950% and the Dow lifted to record highs ahead of today’s holiday in the US, as investors priced in deep central bank easing.
In Europe, Bund yields are holding steady around -0.39% in opening trade, and Italian yields in particular continue to slide, as investors buy into hopes that under Lagarde’s helm the ECB will take a more benign view on deficit spending and implement further easing to support struggling economies.
US President Trump once again accused China and Eurozone of currency manipulation and stock markets turned more cautious during the Asian session amid lingering trade concerns and with trading volumes below average as investors wait for the key US jobs report on Friday.
European stock futures are slightly higher, while US futures are marginally in the red.
The WTI future is trading at $56.85 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
USDJPY recovered from post-ADP lows of 107.58, bouncing to 107.82 highs, after failing to test the overnight 6-session low of 107.54. Soft Treasury yields (10-year at 1.95%) have limited upside for the pairing, though another Wall Street rally should contain losses. Activity is likely to wind down early today, as many make their way out the door on today’s Independence Day holiday.
AUDUSD: The Australian Dollar has outperformed for a second day, presently near highs with a 0.6% gain versus the US buck and a 0.8% advance against the pound, which is the weakest of the main currencies on the day so far. AUD-USD posted a 57-day at 0.7047, extending gains seen from yesterday’s at 0.6956, seen in the immediate wake of the RBA’s rate cut. Markets had mostly priced-in the move, with Aussie money markets having factored in 85% odds for it. Given this, along with some cautiously upbeat remarks on the outlook in RBA Governor Lowe’s statement, and the thawing in US-China tensions, the scene was set for a rally in the Australian Dollar. AUDUSD has support at 0.7017-20.
Main Macro Events Today
United States – Independence Day
Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Retail Sales are expected to climb to 1.6% for May, after the 1.5% last month.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th July 2019.
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FX News Today
Stock markets are little changed and awaiting today’s US jobs report.
Hopes of further central bank easing have underpinned the latest rally in bonds and helped stock markets to move past lingering trade tensions.
Today’s NFP report will be watched closely in the light of speculation for a move from the Fed this month. Anything but a much stronger than expected number will likely see markets continue to price in deep easing ahead.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.08% and 0.09% respectively, the Hang Seng lifted 0.12% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp 0.55% and 0.19%.
Oil prices meanwhile are trading at $56.65, clearly below recent highs, despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Italian rates fall further as weaker than expected German manufacturing orders added to hopes for additional easing measures from the ECB.
German manufacturing orders slumped -2.2 bp in the May reading, bringing the annual rate down to -8.6% y/y. Orders from within the Eurozone have now dropped for the second consecutive month while orders from outside the currency bloc fell back -5.7% m/m, after some strong months.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURUSD edged out a 1.1273, which is just 5 pips from yesterday’s low. Market narratives have been centering on the ECB’s further turn to the dovish side, which has tipped the Bund yield curve into negative right out to the 20-year maturity, while the 10-year yield has forayed below -0.40%, undershooting the deposit rate.
GBPUSD found a footing after three straight down days, which yesterday culminated in a 15-day low at 1.2557. The pair has since taken root around 1.2575-90. EURGBP similarly came to a directional halt below the six-day high seen yesterday at 0.8990, which is just 2 pips short of the six-month peak that was seen last week.
Main Macro Events Today
NFP and Labour Market Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 170k June nonfarm payroll rise is projected, following a 75k increase in May. The unemployment rate should remain steady at 3.6% from April, and hours worked are estimated to rise 0.2%. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.3% m/m, for a y/y gain of 3.2%, above the 3.1% pace of April but below the 3.4% cycle-high pace of February. The payroll gains are seen averaging 169k in 2019, down from a 223k average in 2018.
Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May from 5.7% in April as the participation rate eased to 65.7 from 65.9. Hence, this strong reading is expected to hold for June, while employment change is expected to grow slightly up to 8K from the 27.7K seen in May after the 106.6k surge in April.
Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2019.
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An interesting week is coming up, following a confirmation that the US and China will resume trade negotiations.Market attention is also honed in on central banks, as Fed Chair Powell testifies before Congress. In the UK, the focus turns to GDP.
Monday – 8 July 2019
Industrial Production and Trade Balance (EUR, GMT 06:00) – In Germany, the surplus is expected to increase to EUR 18.6 bln in May, from EUR 17 bln in the previous month. Overall exports clearly are impacted by geopolitical trade tensions and the risk of US tariffs on auto imports from the EU are still hanging over the manufacturing sector and spell further troubles ahead. Meanwhile, Industrial production expected to be corrected -0.4% m/m in May, from -1.9% last month.
Tuesday – 9 July 2019
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.
Wednesday – 10 July 2019
Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The June’s Chinese CPI is expected to drop to -0.1%. The overall reading is estimated to be unchanged.
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have rise to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remains for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement (removed patient) and the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing made for a dovish stance.
Thursday – 11 July 2019
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) –The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) –May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony (USD, GMT 14:00)
Friday – 12 July 2019
Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th July 2019.
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Stock markets remain cautious ahead of Powell’s testimony, after jobs data reduced hopes of big rate cuts from the Fed.
Tech stocks were hit by a slump in Apple Inc. after a broker downgrade.
Topix and Nikkei pared early gains in the course of the session and are currently down -0.22% and up 0.06% respectively.
Central bank expectations remain a major force for stock market moves, amid lingering geopolitical trade tensions, which are far from over despite the restart of US-Sino talks.
European futures as well as US futures are down -0.3-0.4% with the Nasdaq underperforming.
In Europe, BTPs are currently outperforming, but Greek bonds, which rallied yesterday on the election result, are paring some of the gains.
Released overnight, UK BRC retail sales came in weaker than expected and fell back -1.6% m/m in the same store measure. Still to come are Italian retail sales numbers and an I/L auction in Germany.
Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold in the USD 57-58 range, with the WTI future currently trading at USD 57.50.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
GBPUSD retests again the 6-month low into EU open, at 1.2483. EURGBP remained buoyant, but markets still lacked the muster for a test of the recent six-month high at 0.8992. A 0.3% m/m contraction in the Halifax measure of UK house prices (released Friday) was the latest in a series of data disappointments out of the UK. As for Brexit, the news flow has remains quiet in terms of substantive developments. That will change as soon as the new prime minister, most likely no-deal-Brexit-if-necessary Boris Johnson, takes up the reigns (which will be later in the month). Cable has resistance at 1.2510-20. Next Support at 1.2420.
Silver: Despite the decline seen the last 2 days, Silver manage to be held above the 20- and 50-week SMA, sustaining more than 50% of the gains seen in June. Breaching the uptrend Support at 14.90 and also the small bounce up to 15.10 suggest that the corrective pressure is growing again. The RSI is sloping to the upside again but still remains below 50 in the daily chart, while MACD remains within the positive area following a bear cross last week. The key level at $15.10 is now a Resistance whilst traction below the $14.90 would open $14.60 as the next Support. A break above Resistance couls retest the $15.25-$15.35 area.
Main Macro Events Today
Fed Chair Powell Speech on Boston (USD, GMT 12:45)
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not be filled on the last business day of the month. May’s JOLTS job openings is expected to rise slightly at 7.479M, following the 7.44M in April.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th July 2019.
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Markets take a defensive stance ahead of Powell’s testimony to Congress and the release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting.
Speaking overnight Atlanta Fed President Bostic said the central bank is debating the risks and benefits of letting the economy run a “little hotter” and while most are still expecting a 25 bp “insurance cut” this month, there are fears that Powell may close the door to rate cut hopes.
GER30 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed and US futures slightly in the red, after a mixed session in Asia overnight.
KOSPI and KOSDAQ recovered as Japan and South Korea said they are planning talks on the trade tensions. Japan’s new export restrictions on materials vital to South Korea’s tech industry, and hopes of thawing relations helped KOSDAQ to gain 1.6%, elsewhere moves were pretty muted.
Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming, but yields are also up across Italy, Spain and Portugal.
Trade risks, US-Iran tensions and in Europe the risk of a no-deal Brexit scenario keep markets looking to central banks for support.
The WTI future meanwhile surged to $58.76 per barrel, after US data showed another drop in stock piles, which dampened concerns about oversupply.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
EURGBP has forayed above 0.9000 for the first time since early January while Cable has descended into 27-month low territory. EURGBP has now made this the 8th week out of the last nine where a new higher high has been set. The Pound has been trading with a 10-15% trade-weighted Brexit discount since the vote to leave the EU in June 2016.
USDJPY was stopped in its tracks at 6-week highs of 108.96, the level coinciding with the 50-day Moving Average. Profit taking ensued, which took the pairing to 108.76 lows in early NY and Asia session. In addition to the noted technical resistance, Japanese exporter offers are reportedly parked from the 109.00 level, which should help cap gains going forward.
Main Macro Events Today
Gross Domestic Product, Manufacturing & Industrial Production (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The GDP is the economy’s most important figure. May’s GDP is expected to be lower at -0.7% m/m following the -0.4% reading from last month. Meanwhile, Industrial and Manufacturing Production will be out as well. These two indices are expected to have increased, with industrial output providing an upwards contribution of 1.5% m/m in February, while manufacturing is projected to have risen to 2.3% from its -3.9% last month.
Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00) –Last time, Bank of Canada held the policy rate setting steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations, while the statement was largely optimistic in terms of the growth outlook. The expectations remain for no change of the policy outlook from the BoC through year-end, with the next move expected to be a modest rate hike in late 2020.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) -The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on June 19, FOMC left rates unchanged but the statement, which removed the word “patient”, along with the inflation outlook, the dot-plot, and Bullard’s dissent in favor of easing, made for a dovish stance.
Support and Resistance levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th July 2019.
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FX News Today
FOMC minutes of the June meeting were a little anti-climactic following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. However, there were “many” indications that an easier policy stance was the more desired outcome.
10-year Treasury yields dropped -2.3 bp to 2.039% overnight, and reopened soft, stopped at 2.064% tailing out from 2.057%.
US stocks rise, yields drop, Powell’s testimony supported rate cut expectations.
The S&P 500 briefly topped the 3000 mark for the first time, but the index didn’t manage to hold these levels as stocks generally came off highs.
USD lower as Powell signals July FOMC rate cut.
The WTI future is trading at $60.57 per barrel, amid reports that Iranian boats attempted to “impede” the passage of a British tanker.
Charts of the Day
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Technician’s Corner
FX Update: The USD posted fresh lows during the pre-Europe session in Asia as markets continued to readjust Fed easing expectations in the wake of Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, which was consistent with a 25 bp rate cut at the end of this month with an addendum stipulating that the Fed has the tools needed and could use them “aggressively” if necessary. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has declined by about 0.6% over the last day, earlier printing a six-day low at 96.90, while EURUSD rose to a six-day high at 1.1280 and USDJPY posted a six-day low at 107.86. The US currency saw a similar magnitude of decline against other currencies. In the mix has been an unexpected upward revision to June German HICP, to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, while news that Iran tried to intercept a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (London claiming that its navel ship HMS Montrose saw off three Iranian vessels with “verbal warnings”) saw front-month WTI crude prices spike above $60.0, the first time above this level since late May.
Main Macro Events Today
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00)
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.