Spin the Wheel or Trade the Probs?

False_Profit

Hello Everyone,

I have attached a spreadsheet that may illustrate the benefits of avoiding the folly (in my opinion) of betting on directional moves in the next few heart beats versus betting on higher probabilities based on more substantial trends over a longer, more realistic time horizon.

Re the spreadsheet: I hope it is helpful. The raw data is included so u can do your own thing. I left a few of the obvious calcs out to dissuade the lazy.

The strategy is weekly options, only in agreement with the prevailing daily trend, so trading on Monday and closing on or before Friday.

The main points I want to convey:

The power of the prevailing "significant trend" (pursuant to your time horizon).

The "real" options market is not that "expensive" to trade (notice the average cost/risk per trade).

The fallacious (imo) notion that huge, noisy markets are predictable at the nano second increments
that bino brokers offer.

I don't want to argue. If you're happy then I'm happy.

Best to all,
False_Profit

lotzofbotz

I don't know what your point is but it seems to be an obvious troll. You are using multiple IPs and now posting files.. Uhmmm no...

False_Profit

Sorry you took it that way. I thought (hoped) it might be helpful.
Best of luck in your trading. I won't intrude any more.

lotzofbotz

Hey don't get upset I just have to forewarn you to not try any trolling, other then that feel free to post useless crap or drunken voices you have as I do all the time... Everybody on the net wants to sell used underwear... I just want to phucking trade!

False_Profit

Thanks lotzofbotz.