Back testing

gelderen

I have 2 questions that I hope someone can help me with.
1: I'm trying to backtest several technical analysis techniques and strategies on binary options with changing results. Has anyone else tried to do this?
2: I;m having trouble calculating accurate resistance and support levels. Does anyone have a good formula for that?

Thanks for your help!
Eelco

thebotarmor

Hi Eelco,

Do you have existing S/R indicators which you want to back test and see how those perform in history or you want to make new S/R based indicators/strategy?

gelderen

Hi,
Thanks for the quick reply!
I want to use existing technical indicators like the MACD, various trendlines, Bollinger Bands, several types of candle signals etc and back test them in history to see how they perform.

thebotarmor

You can do it in MT4 Strategy tester but you will have to actually watch the screen / chart and see what's going on there with these indicators.

Perhaps, if code an EA based on your idea then you can back test it and see actual results, this might be more beneficial then watching the indicators in the whole history, but I can't say for sure how EA-zable your strategy, thats coder might tell better.

gelderen

I'm not using Mt4. I'm trying to back test in Excel initially and when the volumes get too large I have a database in which I can associate very large volumes of data. That gives me the opportunity to back test several years of data and any number of indicators very rapidly.

The downside is that I haven't found an accurate way of determining support and resistance levels because the ones I know of require human interpretation before calculation. I'm trying to find a way to find support and resistance levels purely based on math.

Do you know any?

thebotarmor

Personally not but developers over here might know a thing!

lotzofbotz

it literally hurts my brain repeating this, but alas I shall. Markets are non-linear in nature you are trying to apply linear logic to them = you will FAIL. When you accept they are probabilistic in nature and then put the work to learn PA and getting into FLOW of price. Then maybe you have a chance.. "The LAW of Observation" clearly states that if we perceive it we change its state through the observation alone. All of you indicator/system guys chasing one after another looking for the HOLY grail that is going to always work and make you money and worse lie to yourselves with logic saying that you are not looking for the HOLY GRAIL, are wasting your time... See how do I know this? Its not what you are saying that tells me its where you FOCUS your attention, duh! LoL

By the way if you want a very small glimpse into some of the ALGO trading logic I use I will point to this article, forget the indicator or crap they say focus on Leonhard Euler (1707-1783) <-- Read about him and learn about inequalities and Eulerian equations of motion/boundaries.

http://www.thecrosshairstrader.com/2011/02/new-stock-trading-indicator-is-100-accurate/

thebotarmor

lotzofbotz said:

it literally hurts my brain repeating this, but alas I shall. Markets are non-linear in nature you are trying to apply linear logic to them = you will FAIL. When you accept they are probabilistic in nature and then put the work to learn PA and getting into FLOW of price. Then maybe you have a chance.. "The LAW of Observation" clearly states that if we perceive it we change its state through the observation alone.

1. Market is not linear - ok, agreed.
2. But isn't indicators meant to be used with PA? Otherwise we can call all the indicators as waste of time by whoever made them....
3. So maybe the OP want use it as help, not as entry maker....and if he want use the indicators as help, then it doesnt conflict the no linear approach.

thebotarmor

By the way,

Let's say that many people does follow Stochastic and many indeed do. So isn't it makes stochastic into more-accurate indicator to use versus some indicator that barely used? Because the market moves by what majority does and if majority uses stochastic, we can consider this as one indicator to use with our PA confirmation.

Just as an example, where indicator can be actually more usable then another. Indicator as indication to see what others potentially can do, not as an entry while entry is our price action, reading the chart and feel the price movement.

Thoughts?

lotzofbotz

You poor poor monkey. The sad thing is you can't get out of your own way. You have no real ability to listen to others, you always THINK you are right, the posing questions when there are already answers is a prime example of this. Basically I am stating that you don't listen... Try going back to what I wrote and read it a few times then actually say "Ok let me do that instead of posing rhetorical babble that only serves to further take me away from my goal of being profitable as a trader." Your brain is WIRED the wrong way and you might want to change that or else you will get the same results... I will take the time to make a video that explains this in detail and how to correct such... Now that is a challenge because people like you are HARD CASES...

thebotarmor

lotzofbotz said:

You poor poor monkey. The sad thing is you can't get out of your own way. You have no real ability to listen to others, you always THINK you are right, the posing questions when there are already answers is a prime example of this. Basically I am stating that you don't listen... Try going back to what I wrote and read it a few times then actually say "Ok let me do that instead of posing rhetorical babble that only serves to further take me away from my goal of being profitable as a trader." Your brain is WIRED the wrong way and you might want to change that or else you will get the same results... I will take the time to make a video that explains this in detail and how to correct such... Now that is a challenge because people like you are HARD CASES...

I want to see that video. It's not a secret, what most of the traders see when they start trading? all this indicators and strategies WITH indicators. So wonder most of us hard locked in the mind set of indicators? perhaps we need good tutorials, videos and support to read the price in the way you do, without this indicators. Use it only as addition / support not as our reason to make or not make a trade.

lotzofbotz

Done will be up soon...

gelderen

Understood.

But that leaves my questions open:
1: I'm trying to backtest several technical analysis techniques and strategies on binary options with changing results. Has anyone else tried to do this?
2: I'm having trouble calculating accurate resistance and support levels. Does anyone have a good formula for that?

Does anyone know of any?
Eelco

thebotarmor

gelderen said:

Understood.

But that leaves my questions open:
1: I'm trying to backtest several technical analysis techniques and strategies on binary options with changing results. Has anyone else tried to do this?
2: I'm having trouble calculating accurate resistance and support levels. Does anyone have a good formula for that?

Does anyone know of any?
Eelco

Maybe after Lot'z video...you will understand...you dont need all that

lotzofbotz

Simply answered you will not find anything outside of a coin flip even with extracted large number factoring/crunching with just simple S/R.. Because what variables will you quantify for S/R as this goes right back to the law of observation being relative to the observer. You likely are not having any trouble at all you just are not getting results and that goes back to the first sentence = a coin flip... S/R just is, there is no accuracy to it as it is a state of a high/low in a given period of time...

thebotarmor

lotzofbotz said:

Simply answered you will not find anything outside of a coin flip even with extracted large number factoring/crunching with just simple S/R.. Because what variables will you quantify for S/R as this goes right back to the law of observation being relative to the observer. You likely are not having any trouble at all you just are not getting results and that goes back to the first sentence = a coin flip... S/R just is, there is no accuracy to it as it is a state of a high/low in a given period of time...

Where's the video? coming? Thanks!

lotzofbotz

Its coming... It takes time to make these you know.. Here is the one I just did showing how these hu$tlers are everywhere trying to sell you the latest greatest indicators/software and think you are just "Stupid Suckers" these marketers pin point most of you as "INDICATOR CRACKHEADS" which in a way most people are unfortunately. Watch this one in the mean time lol..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O3NMifE2-I

Gihon

lotzofbotz said:

Its coming... It takes time to make these you know.. Here is the one I just did showing how these hu$tlers are everywhere trying to sell you the latest greatest indicators/software and think you are just "Stupid Suckers" these marketers pin point most of you as "INDICATOR CRACKHEADS" which in a way most people are unfortunately. Watch this one in the mean time lol..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O3NMifE2-I

Hi Lotzofbotz,

I could not see this video.
How can I? Pls help!

Thanks in advance,
Gihon

The_Geek_MH

I think that video was unposted.

Gihon

How sad is that!?