European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are higher in early trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.7% as of 7:28GMT, the 2-year up 0.4 bp at -0.576%, leaving the curve steeper once again as European stock futures move higher, with the DAX future leading the way and up 0.86% after a late rally on Wall Street yesterday. Asian markets also tried to recovered, but the rally started to fizzle out later in the session as rate hike concerns resurfaced and while the Nikkei managed a small gain of 0.16%, the CSI 300 closed with a loss of -2.37%. The relationship between bond and stock markets remains ambiguous but for now improving risk appetite is underpinning stocks and the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral bond markets, versus Bunds. Released at the start of the session, German industrial production corrected -0.6% m/m in December, broadly in line with expectations after a 3.1% m/m rise in November.. Still to come are U.K. house price numbers and a German 10-year auction.
FX Update: The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Wall Street staged a solid rebound yesterday, and Eurostoxx futures are pointing to a positive open on European bourses, though S&P futures have shed 0.8% in overnight trade and Asian markets turned lower, giving back intraday gains and turning negative in some cases. Japan’s Nikke 225 closed with a fractional 0.2% gain, while the Shanghai Composite is showing a loss of 1.8%, and South Korea’s KOSPI a 2.3% loss. This backdrop saw USDJPY and yen crosses grind lower, giving back some of the rebound gains seen yesterday during Wall Street’s rebound. Volatility is likely to remain high in the coming sessions, and we expect to see further dollar and yen outperformance relative to most other currencies.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting Crude Oil Inventories Canadian Building Permits – projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November. RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – The 1.75% policy setting expected to be left in place. RBNZ Press Conference at 21:00 GMT Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Senior Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with the CSI 300 underperforming once again and heading south, while the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.13%, the ASX 200 moved up a further 0.24% and the Hang Seng 0.58% as of 6:35GMT. The yuan dropped after trade figures missed estimates and amid speculation that policy makers will move to rein in gains. Overnight, RBNZ held steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Spencer remained dovish, saying “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly. NZDUSD has fallen to 0.7209 from 0.7258 ahead of the Bank’s announcement. Meanwhile today,German trade surplus narrowed as export growth slowed. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.5 bln in December, down from EUR 22.3 bln in the previous month. Exports rose just 0.3% m/m, after jumping 4.1% m/m in December, while import growth slowed to 1.4% m/m from 2.2% m/m. The December number left the total for Q4 at EUR 63.7 bln, up from EUR 62.4 bln in the third quarter of the year, which points to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the last quarter, even if this is nominal data, impacted by exchange rate developments.
FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold, albeit a fragile looking one. USDJPY logged a peak at 109.78, extending the rebound from Monday’s low at 108.45. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been seeing a similar price action, including AUDJPY. Japanese data showed the current account data for December at a surplus of Y797.2 bln, down from Y1,347.3 bln in the month prior. BoJ Suzuki said that there is no need for further monetary easing, contrasting in tone to Governor Kuroda, who earlier in the week said that there is no need to think about taking monetary stimulus away with inflation remaining below 1% and well off the BoJ’s 2% target. China January trade data came in much stronger than expected, though a near 40% export survey drove a sharp narrowing in the surplus, prompting the PBoC to guid the CNY lower today after the currency hit a two-year high yesterday. EURUSD lifted back toward 1.2300, reversing some of the losses seen yesterday after ECB’s Nowotny accused the U.S. Treasury of talking the dollar down.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe Speech BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting & Inflation Report – The BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages. Canadian Housing Starts – projected to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December. US Unemployment Claims – expected to rise to 232k from 230k in the week-ended January 27. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are oscillating around the 0.76% mark in opening trade, little changed from yesterday, the 2-year Schatz yield is steady at -0.56%, and while at the short end peripherals are outperforming, at the long end spreads are little changed. With the stock correction ongoing there remains hope that it will prompt a rethink at central banks, although the BoE’s hawkish statement yesterday highlighted that this may not be the case and officials elsewhere have so far also remained pretty calm. UK100 and CAC 40 futures are in the red after a negative session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed down more than 2%, but GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Stocks continued to sell off in Asia, after Wall Street plunged. China’s push for deleveraging and broader concerns about rising interest rates has seen markets correcting more than 10% so far with no real sign of intervention from authorities.
FX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USDJPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss on Wall Street, before rebounding. The marked widening in the U.S. 10-year Treasury over JGB yield spread this week has gotten mention in market narratives as being behind the rebound in USDJPY, although the pair remains nearly 1% down on the week. The U.S. Senate passed the budget and stopgap funding bill, although too late to prevent a government shutdown, which, assuming the House follows suits and passes the bill before midday, will make the shutdown a very short-lived affair. The episode didn’t appear to have had much bearing on the dollar. Sterling, which corrected sharply following its post-BoE gains of yesterday, rallied after remarks by MPC member Broadbent in a BBC radio interview earlier, where he said that a couple of 25 bp rate hikes this year wouldn’t be a great shock to the economy. Cable hit an intraday high of 1.3978, but has remained well off the post-BoE peak at 1.4067. AUDUSD hit a six-week low at 0.7759 following the release of the RBA’s latest SOMP, which took aim at the Australian dollar while trimming employment forecasts.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today
UK Manufacturing Production – Production data for December anticipated at 0.9% m/m decline in the industrial output reading after a 0.4% gain in the month prior, and a 0.3% gain in the narrower manufacturing production measure, which is seen a better gauge of underlying production trends, after an outsized 2.5% m/m in the month prior.
UK Goods Trade Balance – is expected to narrow to £-11.6B bln in December from £-12.2 bln in November.
Canadian Employment Change – expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 64.8k surge in December and 81.2k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.8%. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Volatility had mostly expired under the boot of the Federal Reserve QE policy stance and that of its central banking brethren. But as central bankers have begun to take their foot pedal by undertaking quantitative tapering and tightening, vol has proven that it’s “not dead yet,” but merely dormant until the appropriate moment.Looking ahead, input from around the globe should be mixed this week, with stock markets overseas taking their cue from a suddenly reflexive Wall Street.
United States: U.S. economic calendar starts out at a snail’s pace, with the Treasury budget (Monday) forecast to post a $51 bln surplus (median $47 bln) for January vs -$23.2 bln. The NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) will provide the main entertainment. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) are due, along with a potentially key update on January CPI, and January retail sales. The calendar really loads up (Thursday) with PPI, Philly Fed, Empire, claims, production, NAHB housing market index, and TIC data. The week will round out (Friday) with an update on January housing starts, which are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.20 mln unit pace. Fedspeak will be unusually limited this week, with just Cleveland Fed hawk Mester on tap (Tuesday) to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce from 8 ET.
Canada: In Canada, the data and events docket is sparse. The December manufacturing report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 0.5% gain in shipment values after the 3.4% surge in November. The Teranet/National HPI for January is due Wednesday, while January existing home sales (Thursday)are on tap. ADP publishes its payrolls report for January (Thursday). BoC Deputy Governor Schembri (Thursday) speaks to the Manitoba Association for Business Economics in Winnipeg. His remarks will be available on the BoC’s website at 13:30 ET.
Europe: Market volatility seems to be here to stay as investors adjust to the prospect of higher yields and less central bank support, and so far at least officials seem to be viewing developments with calm. Bundesbank President Weidmann played down both the strength of the EUR as well as the sell-off in stocks. Meanwhile data releases this week including Q4 GDP numbers and some final January inflation numbers, though they are unlikely to challenge the ECB’s baseline assumption of robust economic expansion amid a sanguine inflation environment that only gradually starts to move toward the ECB’s target. Eurozone GDP growth (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. The German Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is expected at 0.7%, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter and Italy GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (median 0.5%). German HICP inflation (Wednesday) meanwhile is expected to be confirmed at just -0.7% y/y and the Spanish headline reading also at just 0.7% y/y, both far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, recent German wage deals suggest a gradual build in domestic price pressures going ahead as the labor market continues to tighten. The data calendar also has Eurozone production (Wednesday), and trade numbers (Thursday), as well as ECB speakers including Weidmann and Mersch. Supply comes from Spain and France on Thursday, while Germany auctions 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.
UK: The BoE last week upgraded its assessment for economic growth while at the same time acknowledging that productivity has been lackluster, the sum of which led to an unexpected ratchet in hawkish guidance, leading to a possible rate hike from November to May. However, Brexit-related concerns — an area of emphasized contingency for the BoE — were soon to resurface. Brexit negotiations have entered a crucial phase, with both the EU and UK seeking to make a tentative accord on both a post-Brexit transition period and the form of a post-Brexit trading relationship, all in time for the EU leaders’ summit in late March. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of January inflation data (Tuesday), along with retail sales figures for the same month (Friday). The headline CPI expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.
Japan: Japan will be closed Monday from National Foundation Day. The markets will reopen Tuesday to he January PPI report, for which a 2.8% y/y reading is expected, slowing from the 3.1% pace previously. Preliminary Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen rising 1.1%, versus the previous 2.5% clip. December machinery orders (Thursday) are pencilled in posting a 2.0% m/m decline after climbing 5.7% in November. Revised December industrial production is also on deck Thursday.
Australia: the employment report (Thursday) is the focus. The total employment is expected at 20.0k gain during January after the 34.7k gain in December. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks from Sydney (Tuesday). Governor Lowe appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics (Friday).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher. Japanese markets returned from yesterday’s holiday’s in a good mood, but pared gains as the yen strengthened and Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.65%, the Topix was down -0.88%. In Europe, 10-year Bund yields are down -0.7 bp at 0.744% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.591%, leaving the curve flatter. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.848% while JGBs underperformed in Asia and the 10-year nudged slightly higher despite a stronger yen. European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures setting up European equities for a correction from yesterday’s gains. Markets remain nervous as long yields continue to trend higher. The focus in Europe today will be on U.K. inflation data, with CPI expected to fall below 3% for the first time since August.
FX Update:The dollar traded mostly softer as the global equity rebound extended in Asia after Wall Street yesterday completed its biggest two-day rebound in just over two years. The U.S. currency has been correlating inversely with global stock market direction of late on the causation that risk-on phases have seen investors divest of dollars and dollar assets in favour of higher yielding opportunities, and vice versa. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has declined 0.3% to 89.94, earlier clocking a four-session low at 89.88. Cable and USDCAD have remained within their respective ranges from yesterday, while USDJPY and yen crosses have traded lower in Tokyo, where markets have reopened after a long weekend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has bucked the global equity rebound, closing with a 0.8% loss, while U.S. equity index futures are also lower. AUDUSD saw a four-day high at 0.7874, aided by data showing Australian January business conditions rising to 19 from 13, with overall confidence lifting to a reading of 12, up from 11. The rand took a hit after the South African Congress ordered President Zuma to resign. News out of Japan today include remarks from Japan Economy Minister Motegi, who argued that Abe’s stance on monetary policy (i.e. ultra dovish) must be maintained. Japan January PPI came in at 0.3% m/m, as expected, after 2.7% y/y in the month prior.
Main Macro Events Today
UK CPI – expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.
UK PPI – PPI core Input expected to rise to 0.7% in January from 0.1% seen in December.
FOMC Member Mester Speech Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Chinese stock markets continued to recover, while Japanese stocks remained under pressure and the ASX 200, also closed in the red today, after gains yesterday. Wall Street managed to close with modest gains yesterday after recovering early losses, but the stronger yen hit Japanese stocks as investors prepare for U.S. CPI, which is judged to be the next directional signal for markets. Long yields declined across the board in Asia, with the 10-year JGB down -0.4 bp, the 10-year Treasury down -1.3 bp. U.S. stock futures and U.K. futures are higher, oil prices little changed at USD 59.17 per barrel.Japanese growth data today disappointed, with Q4 GDP falling to 0.5% q/q growth in they seasonally adjusted annualized figure, off the median forecast of 0.9% growth.
German GDP growth slowed to 0.6% q/q in Q4, from 0.8% q/q in the third quarter of the year. German Jan HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y in line with the preliminary number and versus 1.6% y/y in December. the national CPI rate was confirmed at 1.6% y/y versus 1.7% y/y in December. Energy price inflation continued to decelerate, which contributed to the decline in the headline rate and compensated for higher food prices. Food price inflation has been running at 3% and higher since August last year. Rent prices are also picking up. All in all a lower headline rate than initially expected and an HICP rate that is clearly below the ECB’s target, but with wage growth set to pick up after recent wage agreements and with an ever tighter labour market German inflation is likely to continue to trend higher, despite the set back at the start of the year.
Eurozone Prelim. GDP – the overall growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. Anything less than major surprises won’t change the overall picture of a growth trajectory that is looking stronger than previously thought with confidence indicators remaining robust leaving the hawks at the ECB increasingly convinced that the Eurozone won’t need further net asset purchases beyond September.
US Retail Sales – January retail sales forecast to rise 0.2% headline and 0.5% ex-auto.
US CPI – expected to increase 0.3% headline and just 0.1% core, leaving core y/y at 1.7%, down from 1.8%
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to get slowly used to the idea of further U.S. tightening and a trend higher in global yields, but set backs on the way are still likely. The Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.47%, despite a stronger yen. The ASX 200 gained 1.16% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 1.97% and 0.80% respectively. Bund yields continue to rise in opening trade, peripherals are outperforming as risk appetite continues to improve and European stock futures move higher in tandem with U.S. futures, after a strong session in Asia and following on from yesterday’s gains. US and UK100 futures are moving up, suggesting that the recovery in stocks continues and oil prices are higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.83 per barrel. Today’s European calendar is unlikely to shake things up significantly with Eurozone trade numbers for December the main highlight.
FX Update: The dollar has declined for a fourth-straight session versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently at a two-week low of 88.80, showing a 0.3% decline on the day and now racking up a 1.8% loss on the week so far. EURUSD lifted to a two-week peak of 1.2487, and AUDUSD also posted a two-week high, while Cable logged a one-week high. USDJPY continued to lead the dollar lower, with the pair showing over a 0.6% loss on the day as the London interbank community take to their desks. This is despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to four-year highs during the Asia session, which extended the move seen since yesterday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data. The revived risk appetite evident in global markets has been putting U.S. held assets out of favour as investors seek out higher yields, which is weighing on the greenback. With regard to USDJPY specifically, also in the mix were remarks by Japan’s finance minister, Aso, who said that recent yen strength was not sufficient to “require intervention.”
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today ECB’s Mersch, Praet and Lautenschlager Speech US PPI – PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in January, while core may increase 0.2%, though core y/y at 2.0% would be below 2.3% previously. US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 230k for the week ended February 10. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – may ease slightly to 20.0 in February vs 22.2 and the Empire State index is set to tick up to 18.0 in February vs 17.7. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets mostly moved higher in Asia, after another positive close on Wall Street. China and Hong Kong alongside other markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, which muted trading, but the Nikkei gained 1.19%, while the ASX lost early gains and closed with a marginal loss of -0.08%. The yen continued to advance and 10-year JGB’s dipped -0.8 bp to 0.049%, as Kuroda was nominated to lead the BoJ for another five year term. 10-year Treasury yields declined -0.5 to 2.904% and oil prices picked up slightly, with the March Nymex future trading at USD 61.51 per barrel.Kuroda officially nominated for second term as BoJ governor. As widely expected Abe nominated Kuroda to stay another five years and reports that Waseda University professor Wakatabe, along with BoJ Executive Director Amamiya, will take the deputy governor roles were also confirmed. The nominations were sent to the steering committee of parliament’s lower house and will have to be confirmed by both houses of parliament. Wakatabe is known for advocating “bolder monetary easing” and Amamiya has worked closely with Kuroda. The move should ensure another five years of monetary stimulus from the BoJ and is likely to have underpinned the dip in 10-year BoJ yields today.
FX Update: Another day, another decline in the dollar, which logged a new 38-month low versus the euro, at 1.2554, and a 15-month low against the yen, at 105.54. The USD index (DXY) is down by 0.3%, 88.37, earlier clocking a 37-month low at 88.33. The greenback has also seen fresh lows against most newly developed and developing world currencies. Continued gains in global stock markets have continued to inspire dollar selling, as investors seek out higher yielding opportunities. USDJPY declines came despite the nomination of Kuroda for another term at the helm of the BoJ, along with nominations for the two deputy governor positions of inflationist candidates, Amamiya and Wakatabe.
UK Retail Sales – a 0.5% m/m rebound is anticipated after the sharp, and at the time much weaker than expected, 1.5% contraction in December.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales– shipment values, are expected to reveal a 0.2% gain in December after the 3.4% surge in November. The projection is driven by 0.6% rise in export values during December that came on the heels of a 3.6% surge in November.
US Building Permits and housing Starts – January housing starts are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.23 mln unit pace, while Building Permits are seen at 1.30mln.
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – is forecast to rise to 95.5 in February from 95.7.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian markets headed south in tandem with U.S. futures, after sentiment turned sour once again during the European session yesterday and yields resumed their uptrend. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.7265, after gaining more than 2% yesterday. The Hang Seng was down -0.23% as of 6:40GMT, while mainland China remained closed for a holiday. EGB yields moved broadly higher at the start of the week, with core markets outperforming and stock markets correcting as risk aversion picked up again. Trading was quieter than usual with U.S. and Canada on holiday and Hong Kong and China among others closed during the Asian session. Japanese stocks still managed to rally, but while European markets opened slightly higher, they quickly pared gains and as of 15:44GMT the GER30 was down -0.40%, the UK100 down -0.51%. Italian stock and bond markets underperformed as the election casts is shadows. The 10-year Bund gained 2.8 bp today and is at 0.73%, the Gilt is up 1.6 bp at 1.597%, while the Italian 10-year is up 6.8 bp at 2.044%. The short end outperformed and 2-year yields are down -0.1 bp in Germany and up a mere 0.7 bp in the U.K., leaving the curve steeper. Traders are looking to U.S. auctions and FOMC minutes for the Jan meeting for direction, as markets remain volatile amid the gradual withdrawal of central bank support. European finance ministers gathered for Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings but with Ireland withdrawing of central bank head Lane for Constancio’s position as vice president the way is free for Spanish economy minister Guindos to take over.
FX Update: The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. The USD index (DXY) posted a four-session high of 89.44, extending the rebound from Friday’s 37-monnth low to 1.4%. EURUSD remained heavy after logging four-session low at 1.2369 yesterday. USDJPY lifted for a third straight session, this time logging a four-session high of 106.95, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY with a broader bid in the dollar also been at play. The yen’s past inverse correlation with stock market direction has remained absent, with equity markets in Asia turning lower today, following the souring in sentiment that was seen during the PM session on European bourses yesterday. The dollar also traded firmer versus the likes of the baht, Singapore dollar and rand, along with most other newly developed and developing-world currencies. One exception was the Australian dollar ,which outperformed today, posting a 0.4% gain versus the yen, and a 0.2% rise against the U.S. buck.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today German ZEW Economic Sentiment – a dip in the German ZEW Investor Sentiment expected to 16.2 from 20.4 in January. EU Consumer Confidence – is expected to correct to 1.0 from 1.3 in January. NZ GDT Price Index Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.1 bp at 0.717%, following on from broad corrections in Asian long yields overnight, while the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 bp at 2.891%. The 2-year Schatz yield is down -0.6 bp at -0.522%, leaving the curve flatter from the long end, but amid the temporary set backs, the longer uptrend in long yields continues. European stock futures meanwhile are heading south, while U.S. futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight, where the Hang Seng outperformed.Japanese equity markets fluctuated between gains and losses after Wall Street closed in the red and the Topix closed with a loss of -0.05%, while the Nikkei managed a gain of 0.21% as a weaker yen bolstered exporters. European data releases today include Eurozone preliminary PMI readings for February as well as U.K. labour market data and public finance numbers.
FX Update: The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USDJPY, which lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY, as a broader bid in the dollar has also been at play. EURUSD posted a four-session low at 1.2317. Data out of Asia today included Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for February, which ebbed to a 54.0 headline reading form 54.8 in January, and mixed figures out of Australia. Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs (the power position regarding forex intervention decisions), Asakawa, said that “I cannot help but assess the [yen] movements as one-sided,” and noted that surging U.S. Treasury yields is the “beginning of a sea change.”
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Eurozone February’s PMIs – The February Eurozone manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 59.3 from 59.6, while the services reading slips to 57.6 from 58.0. Those should leave the composite at 58.5, down from January’s 58.8. UK Labour Market data – isWe expect the CBI surveys to show a modest abatement in the headline total orders reading for industrial trends, to 11 (median same) from 14, and a slightly increased in the headline realized sales figure for the distributive sales survey, to 14 (median same) from 12. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.3% (median same), in addition to an unchanged average income reading of 2.5% y/y for the with-bonus figure (which would still lag inflation, which stands at 3.0%). US Markit PMI – The February manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 55.4 from 55.5, while the services reading rises to 54.0 from 53.3. Those should leave the composite at 54.4, up from January’s 53.8. FOMC Minutes Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields moved higher across Asia, after yesterday’s correction, thus putting fresh pressure on stock markets. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.1 bp at 0.046%, other markets under-performed, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.1 bp at 2.939%. Investors fretted over the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the economy as the FOMC minutes saw risks roughly balanced, but mentioned increased upside risks to the near term. U.S. futures are heading south, after a mixed session in Asia. Mainland China bourses rallied in catch up trade and the CSI 300 is up 1.99%, while Nikkei and Hang Seng corrected markedly and the ASX closed with a modest gain of 0.12%. The Topix meanwhile lost -0.88%, the Nikkei -1.07% and the Hang Seng also nearly 1%. The yen strengthened against the dollar and oil prices slipped back with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.07 per barrel.
FX Update: FOMC minutes showed a majority saw stronger growth in the economy and agreed a gradual rate hike approach was still appropriate. Indeed, a number of policymakers raised their growth forecasts since the December meeting and saw upside risks to growth. However, officials noted “few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth.” And “almost all” do expect inflation to reach to the 2% goal. Several members did caution about financial market imbalances. The report supports expectations for a 25 bp tightening in March, but of course doesn’t settle the issue of 2 or 4 rate hikes this year, which is dependent on the data reflecting the economy and inflation. Fed funds futures are little changed after the FOMC minutes, but are paring small losses earlier, in tandem with the slide in nominal yields. The minutes didn’t really tell us anything new. But the futures were primed for a slightly more hawkish tone.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today German IFO – expected to correct to 117.0 from 117.6 in January, with the risk to the downside after the sharper than expected corrections in PMI readings. UK GDP Data – unrevised GDP data for Q4 last year, anticipated at 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – will be scrutinised for indications of how far the ECB’s discussions about the expected change in guidance have progressed. It is widely anticipated that a growing number of council members will be arguing for a change in language as the ECB heads toward the March meeting, which will also include updated staff projections. Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to dip 0.3% m/m in December on the heels of the tepid 0.2% gain in November. US Unemployment Claims and Oil Inventories – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to hold at 230k in the BLS survey week, versus the week-ended February 10. Continuing claims are expected to fall 12k to 1,930k Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Yields dipped in Asia. 10-year rates are down -1.0 bp in South Korea after the central bank left policy on hold. 10-year JGBs are down -0.5 bp at 0.032%, 10-year Treasury yields fell back -0.4 bp to 2.859%, after initially trying to move higher. Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming and European stock futures are higher, after a mixed session in Asia, where markets in Hong Kong and mainland China sold off, while Topix and Nikkei closed with solid gains. U.S. futures are heading south, however, and the stock rally that was fuelled by hopes that central banks will slow the withdrawal of support, is starting to stutter ahead of Powell’s testimony that is hoped to give a clearer guidance on the outlook. Draghi continued to sit on the fence yesterday and we expect Powell’s comments to be also rather balanced. Today’s local calendar focuses on German inflation numbers and Eurozone ESI economic confidence.
FX Update: The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today as many market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USDJPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EURUSD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.2342 before settling around 1.2330, leaving yesterday’s high at 1.2355 unchallenged. Regarding Powell, most Fed watchers, including ourselves, expect he will signal a gradualist approach to tightening, maintaining continuity in approach from his predecessor, Yellen. This expectation was cited in equity market summaries yesterday as justifying the strong close on Wall Street, though U.S. equity index futures have come off the boil in overnight trading, and stocks have been mixed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed with a 1% gain but Chinese and some other markets have posted losses. The New Zealand dollar came under pressure after NZ trade data showed an unexpected deficit in January of NZ$ 566 mln. NZDUSD logged a two-session low of 0.7273.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today Eurozone ESI – rounds up the February confidence numbers and a dip to 114.3 is expected from 114.7 after preliminary consumer confidence already dipped sharply. Unlike other confidence readings the ESI already dipped in January, but overall readings remain at high levels and consistent with ongoing robust growth with PMI readings suggesting that job creation remains strong, which backs expectations for gradually rising wages going forward. US CB Consumer Confidence- The Consumer confidence should remain buoyant at 126.7 in February and the Richmond Fed index is sent to rise to 16.0 in February from 14. US Core Durable Goods – seen sinking 2.5% in January from 2.8%, while advanced indicators goods trade gap may widened to -$73.4 bln in January from -$72.3 bln. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index, seen rising 0.4% to 257.0, while Case-Shiller home prices may be flat in December. Fed Chair Powell Testifies Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: : Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, as yields moved higher in the wake of Powell’s testimony yesterday and weaker than expected data out of China and Japan added to pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield is down from earlier highs, but remains up 0.7 bp on the day and sightly above the 2.9% mark. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.9 bp at 0.042%. Stock markets meanwhile got stung by the reminder that central banks are still on course to take out stimulus and Powell’s reference to the risk of overheating and the Nikkei closed with a loss of 1.44%, the Topix was down -1.23% at the close. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.46% and -0.62% respectively, as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 from 51.3 and Japan industrial production dropped -6.6% m/m. U.S. stock futures are also heading south as are UK100 futures and the front end WTI future is down on the day at USD 62.72 per barrel. The very busy data calendar today include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone inflation numbers, the Swiss KOF and a German 10-year auction.
German GfK consumer confidence dipped to 10.8 with March numbers from 11.0 in February. An unexpected correction after the surprisingly strong February numbers. The full details for February, show economic expectations falling back in tandem with income expectations and the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save turned even more negative. Overall readings remains at very high levels, like business confidence surveys, but suggest some levelling off which will back the arguments of the ECB doves for caution with regard to any changes in guidance.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today German Labour Data – Confidence readings may have fallen back more than expected in February, but preliminary PMI reports still suggested that companies remain sufficiently optimistic about the recovery to take on more staff and German jobless numbers expected to dip -15K in February, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at just 5.4%. Eurozone Inflation – The Eurozone HICP for February was expected to show a headline rate of 1.2% y/y, but has a bias to the downside after yesterday’s preliminary readings from Spain and Germany. The former may have come in higher than expected, but the latter fell back more than anticipated. Still, the German numbers also suggested that much of the dip was due to base effects from energy and food prices, so the real focus will be on core inflation, rather than the headline rate and even German numbers suggest that could remain steady. US Prelim GDP – a second release of Q4 GDP likely trimmed to 2.5% from 2.6%. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: :Asian bond yields mostly dropped, with the 10-year JGB down -0.8 bp at 0.035%, after dovish BoJ comments. The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilised, after yesterday’s slide and is trading at 2.86%. The dip in yields yesterday did nothing to boost stock market confidence and Wall Street closed with broad losses. The negative sentiment spilled over into Asian markets and Nikkei and Topix closed with losses of 1.56% and 1.59% respectively, and stocks were also under pressure in Hong Kong and Australia with materials and health care stocks leading the way. Mainland China bourses outperformed after a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and the CSI 300 is up 0.42%. Markets remain nervous ahead of Powell’s hearing, after the Fed Chairman’s comments hit markets earlier in the week. Reports that Trump plans a 25% tariff on steel imports is adding to pressure. U.S. futures are mostly down, while oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.70 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland. the U.K. also has lending data, the Eurozone jobless numbers and there are bond auctions in Spain and France.
FX Update: The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.74 and pushing EURUSD to a six-week low of 1.2183. AUDUSD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the Australian dollar underperforming amid reports that Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on U.S. steel imports. Australian is the world’s biggest export of iron ore, which is the base metal of steel. AUDUSD logged a two-month low at 0.7717, and AUDJPY, a cross that many consider is a forex market barometer of global investor risk appetite, has forayed into nine-month low terrain. USDJPY, while having recouped to the upper 106.0s, edged out a two-day low of 106.53 earlier in Tokyo trade, and EURJPY posted its lowest level since last mid September, at 129.85. The yen’s outperformance has come amid a backdrop of falling equity markets amid a backdrop of Fed tightening expectations and concerns about Trump starting trade wars.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today UK & Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – The February Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, is seen unchanged at at 58.5. US Core PCE and Jobless claims – Initial jobless claims for the February 17 week will be scrutinized at it coincides with the BLS survey week. It is expected to released at 226K from 222K last week. Personal income is expected to grow 0.2% in January, while consumption should rise 0.2% as well. Fed Chair Powell Testifies US ISM Manufacturing PMI – ISM is expected to drop to 58.7 in February from 59.1.
Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields are mixed in Asia. 10-year JGBs trailed Treasuries and sold off, with the yield up 0.8 bp at 0.055%, while the 10-year Treasury yields jumped 2 bp to 2.83%. Yields headed south in Australia and New Zealand. The global stock market sell off meanwhile continued in Asia overnight, Nikkei and Topix lost 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, undermined by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in imported steel and aluminium, which together with a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The rise in long yields moved amid a drop in the jobless rate and a rise in Tokyo inflation added to pressure. U.S. futures are starting to stabilise, however, oil prices remain under pressure, with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.92 per barrel. In Europe,the 10-year Bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 0.616% as of 7:25GMT, extending opening losses after weaker than expected German retail sales and a dip in import price inflation at the start of the session. European stock futures are deeply in the red, after a sell off in Asia overnight. The local calendar still has the U.K. CIPS construction PMI as well as Eurozone producer price inflation.
Fed Chairman Powell had been largely bullish, Fed’s Dudley later seemed at ease with 4 hikes and that didn’t help along with the tariff/trade concerns. Powell’s testimony included a lot of discussion was on the labor market, wages, and inflation. He did note at Tuesday’s hearing that there was still some slack in the system, but was the markets instead focused on his comments about keeping a gradual tightening posture in place to prevent the economy from “overheating,” as well as on his optimism on growth following tax legislation. He stressed several times that wage inflation isn’t at a point of acceleration and isn’t expected to push up inflation. He does expect wages and prices to be moving up, but he didn’t suggest inflation is on the brink or a breakout. The PCE deflator data supports that conclusion. It’s still the case the Fed will increase the funds rate another 25 bps at the end of the month.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today
UK Prime Minister May Speech UK Construction PMI – the construction PMI expected to come in at 50.5 from 50.2, which would affirm a sector barely limping along. BOE Gov Carney Speaks in London, for the evolution of money and the emergence of Crypto-currencies. Canadian GDP – December GDP is seen flat (0.0%) after the 0.4% jump in November. The separate GDP report is projected to reveal a 2.0% real growth pace (q/q, saar) following the 1.7% growth rate in Q3. US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Final Michigan sentiment for February may tick up to 99.5 from 99.9 prelim.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.3 bp at 0.651% as of 7:20GMT, French 10-year yields are also up amid a wider rise in long yields, with 10-year JGBs up 0.046% and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2 bp. Stock markets continued to bounce back in Asia as investor fears of a global trade war receded and the RBA left the cash rate unchanged and sounded slightly less optimistic on its growth projections. Italian 10-year yields are slightly down and below the 2% mark and it seems the messy Italian election result won’t lead to a wider crisis in Eurozone bond markets. Stocks meanwhile continue to recover and European stock futures are moving higher with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.79%, ASX 200 rose 1.14% and the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 2.26% and 1.21% respectively. Meanwhile, Oil prices are also higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 62.68 per barrel. Trump said he’s not backing down on tariffs in the steel and aluminum sectors, though Mexico and Canada want to talk about them in the context of NAFTA. Trump suggested that if the U.S. can make a good deal on NAFTA, then the tariffs can be addressed for Canada and Mexico. He said the biggest problem on trade is China and he doesn’t think there will be a trade war inspired by the steel and aluminum tariffs.
FX Update: The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode. with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, along with the main crosses, including EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDCAD, trading at near net unchanged levels as the London interbank market takes to its collective desk. This has come amid a backdrop of recovering global stock markets. EURUSD has traded on either side of 1.2350, drifting lower in the latest phase, to around 1.2335. The pair has held below the 13-day high seen yesterday at 1.2365. USDJPY settled lower, back around 105.20 after scaling to a three-session high in the wake of the Tokyo fixing. EURJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action, posting fresh highs before turning lower.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today Swiss CPI – expected to rise at 0.2% from decline seen on January. FOMC Member Dudley Speech – takes part in a round-table on the U.S. Virgin Islands recovery effort. Canadian Ivey PMI- Canada’s Ivey PMI expected to rise to 56.3 after falling to 55.2 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.4 in December. The Ivey remains consistent with an expanding economy. MPC Member Haldane and RBA Gov Lowe Speaks Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.3 bp at 0.655% in early trade, the 2-year down -1.4 bp at 0.58%. The correction comes amid a wider decline in long yields globally, led by Treasuries. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures and after a sell off in equities during the Asian session as concerns about a global trade war pick up again. S&P 500 futures are down over 1% on Cohn resignation, the head of the National Economic Council, and who had been key figure in Trump’s administration. Many White House watchers say Cohn his departure is over Trump’s sudden push toward trade protectionism. The news broke after the close of the regular session on Wall Street yesterday, and the losses in index futures foreshadow to a sharp decline at the open later today. The narrative is that Cohn’s departure effectively signals that the protectionist cohort of advisers in the administration, led by the head of the Office of Trade, Navarro, have won out, leaving the White House without a heavyweight advocate of globalization sentiment, suggesting that Trump will go the distance with his trade protectionist campaign pledge, risking a trade war that most economists, see as negative for the U.S. and global economies. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP as well as U.K. house price data from the Halifa
FX Update: The yen has rallied on a safe haven bid following the resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of the National Economic Council, which many onlookers are taking as effectively signalling that the Trump administration will go the distance in trade protectionism. The biggest movers out of the main yen crosses have been CADJPY and AUDJPY, with the Canadian and Australian economies seen as being exposed to a global trade war. The confirmation hearings of the new BoJ deputy governors today produced more dovish rhetoric, with Amamiya, for instance, saying that it is “very regrettable” that inflation hasn’t hit target yet, though to little impact on the yen.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today Eurozone GDP – Q4 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q, and 2.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary reading. This leaves the focus on the full breakdown, which will be released for the first time and is likely to show ongoing investment and a pick up in exports, with the latter helping to underpin growth at the end of last year. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , Trade Balance – The January trade deficit should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$54.1 bln from December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 should be unrevised at -0.1%, while Unit labor costs are expected to be bumped up to 2.1%. Tthe February ADP private payroll survey, expected to reveal 195K jobs excluding the farming industry and government, from 234K last month. Canadian Trade Balance – The January trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.5 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3. BOC Rate Statement & Interest rate Decision – The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement , which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. In January, strong recent data, an economy operating close to capacity and inflation close to target was cited alongside the decision to reduce accommodation. Economic data since the January announcement have been somewhat disappointing, with the 1.7% gain in Q4 GDP undershooting the BoC’s 2.5% estimateUncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The BoC will not hold a press conference, while the next MPR is in April, leaving a short and sweet announcement for the market to mull. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Concerns about a global trade war are receding and after European stocks bounced back during the PM session yesterday, Asian markets followed and rebounded from the lows of the previous session, despite a tepid close on Wall Street. Nikkei and Topix rose 0.54% and -.35% respectively, the ASX was up 0.69% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 gained 1.40% and 0.76% so far. The slew of data releases helped to shrug off trade concerns. Japan GDP came in higher than expected and showed an annualised quarterly rate of 1.6%, versus Bloomberg expectations of 1.0%. Japan’s economy has grown for eight straight quarters, as global growth has underpinned export demand, supporting business investment and corporate profits. However, we have yet to see robust wage gains or consumer spending. Inflation has accelerated but remains well short of the BoJ’s 2% target. China’s trade surplus also came in better than expected, with exports growth accelerating sharply. The positive sentiment also seems to be spilling over with U.S. futures moving higher.
FX Update: USDJPY has remained within yesterday’s range so far in Asian trading today, posting a range so far of 105.92-106.20. Market participants are still fathoming Trump’s tariffs, which will reportedly be signed off on today, and become effective in two weeks time, but which will include temporary exceptions on Mexico and Canada (subject to how the Trump administration deems NAFTA negotiations go). Bitcoin has slumped 10.3% to the $9600 area compared to 24-hour highs of $10,911 and lows of $9,450, breaking back below $10k after a period of consolidation and recovery after its downdraft earlier in the year. Coincidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that the bankruptcy attorney, Nobuaki Kobayashi, for creditors of the failed Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange has sold some $400 mln in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash since September and has another $1.9 bln to go. His aim is reportedly to get the highest price possible and has been averaging as sale price of $10,015. That’s certainly one whale of a headwind for gains from here, along with SEC crackdown on rogue digital exchanges and other potential regulation.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today ECB Rates Decision – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged and confirm the current QE schedule that runs until the end of September, leaving the focus on the forward guidance. ECB officials are increasingly split on the question of the guidance on the QE program, with a growing number of council members arguing for a commitment to an end date for net asset purchases as the economy strengthens. Data since the last meeting backed the dovish camp as are political headwinds with trade war fears and Brexit still hanging over markets and underpinning volatility. The Italian election had only temporary impact, however, and Germany’s Merkel was finally confirmed as Chancellor so the hawks also have something to argue with. Canadian Building Permits & NHPI – Housing starts are seen edging lower to a 216.6k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December. ECB Press Conference – BOC Gov Poloz and Gov council Member Lane Speeches Support and Resistance Levels [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets rose in Asia, amid news that President Trump agreed to an unprecedented summit with North Korea’s leader, thus easing concerns of an escalation of tensions. Nikkei and Topix closed with gains of 0.32% and 0.47% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.07% and 0.79%. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, however, so far not suggesting that the news will light a fireworks on U.S. markets. Long bond yields are mixed. 10-year JGB’s came down from earlier highs and is now down -0.2 bp on the day at 0.040%, as the BoJ remained on hold as expected. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.23 per barrel. Gold prices are heading for a third weekly drop amid easing geopolitical tensions higher.
FX Update: The yen weakened on political news, specifically Trump’s agreeing to Kim Jong Un’s request for a meeting and a declaration from North Korea that it is suspending ICBM testing, which was tonic for stock markets in Asia. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, and left its outlook unaltered (the statement noting that the economy is “expanding moderately”), as expected. BoJ Governor Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly, where he is likely to maintain that an exit from stimulus remains in the distance. USDJPY rallied to an eight-day high of 106.94, up over 60 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level. BoJ Governor Kuroda stuck to a dovish script at his post-meeting press conference, saying that further easing measures must be considered in the event that momentum towards achieving the 2% inflation target wanes and that there are presently no plans to exit from stimulative policy settings. He also stressed that the BoJ will “patiently continue with aggressive stimulus.” He said that stimulus could be taken away before the inflation target is seem, but weakened this verbalization by adding “in theory.” The BoJ earlier announced unchanged policy. Japan’s economy is amid its longest growth phase in decades, but inflation has remained chronically anem
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today UK Industrial Production – January industrial output to rise 1.5% m/m rebounding from the -1.3% figure seen in December Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – projected to show a 20.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9% US Non-Farm Payrolls – February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k from 200K last month. US Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from a 4.1% rate since October. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.3 bp in early trade at 0.624%, the 2-year is down -0.2 bp at -0.590%. Peripherals are outperforming at the long end, but the picture is more mixed in the 2-year area. Eurozone stock futures are moving higher, in tandem with U.S. futures, UK100 futures are in the red, after a mixed session in Asia. Data releases remain thin on the ground and investors are looking to US inflation data for guidance on the pace of Fed tightening. In Europe, Brexit speculation ahead of the March 22-23 summit, ECB speak and the SNB’s policy review remain in focus.
FX Update:The yen back out of early-Tokyo highs and is showing an average 0.4% decline versus the dollar and euro heading into the London interbank open. USDJPY logging a high of 106.90 after posting a three-session low at 106.25. EURJPY also lifted out of a two-session low to make a two-session high of 131.77. AUDJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The dollar, meanwhile, traded with a steady-to-firmer tilt with markets eyeing today’s release of the U.S. CPI, a data series that has been having a relatively heightened influence on markets as the participants look to fine tune their Fed policy expectation. EURUSD has ebbed to the 1.2325 area, moderately lower from a 1.2345 two-session high that was seen in early Tokyo. As for the yen’s weakness, this has come despite a flagging bullish sentiment in global equity market, though in the bigger view the Japanese currency yen has been trading in a relatively narrow sideways pattern over the last week, and USDJPY is near to the midway point of the range that’s been seen over the last month. Japan’s finance minister Aso is likely to skip next week’s G20 meeting due to the alleged embroilment of the Ministry of Finance with a state land sale scandal. In data, Japan’s tertiary index contracted by 0.6 % m/m, worse than the -0.3% median forecast.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Budget Report
US CPI and Core CPI – It is set to increase by just 0.1% for both headline and core, which should keep the core y/y pace unchanged at 1.8%.
BOC Gov Poloz Speech – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on “Today’s labor market and the future of work.” The text of his prepared speech is available 10:15 ET on Tuesday.
RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.
FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt. ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place. US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year. Crude Oil Inventories Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.
FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.
Charts of the Day
[IMG] Main Macro Events Today SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty. US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export pricesrise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72. ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.
FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today
EU Labour cost
EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.
US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously. Support and Resistance levels
[IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.
United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.
Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).
Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.
Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.
The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.
UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).
Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.
Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.
FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures. German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected. Support and Resistance levels [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.
FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4. FOMC Press Conference RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Support and Resistance levels [IMG]
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.
FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
* Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.
* UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.
* BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.
* US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.
FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today
* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.
* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.
* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.
Support and Resistance levels
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.
FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.
Charts of the Day [IMG] Main Macro Events Today Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September. CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February. Support and Resistance level [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year yields are down in opening trade, in tandem with global trends, as long bonds are underpinned by a fresh bout of risk aversion and a sell off in stocks. Fresh selling of tech stocks sparked a sharp decline on Wall Street yesterday, that was followed by a broad correction in Asia and European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures. The GER30 future lost more than -0.9% in opening trade. The 10-year Bund yield has dipped back below the 0.5% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated below 2.8% during the Asian session after declining sharply during U.S. hours, the 10-year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.027%. Month and quarter end cash flows, redemptions and sizeable index extensions in Europe will continue to underpin peripherals in particular and could help to keep Eurozone spreads narrow despite the flare up in risk aversion. Meanwhile German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the U.K. has the CBI distributive trade survey as well as BoE Agent reports of business conditions and Italian orders and sales numbers for the industrial sector.
FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses have settled lower versus yesterday’s highs, with the Japanese currency finding renewed safe haven demand as Wall Street, specifically the tech-sector, led a fresh global stock market wobble. News that the Trump trade team may be planning to use emergency laws via CFIUS to clamp down on China investment into the U.S. also set a negative tone. Investors will remain focused on developments in the tech sector and on Trump’s protectionist policies, which in turn will have a bearing on the yen. The visit to Beijing by North Korea’s Kim has been greeted as a positive in terms of further allaying geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsular, though evidently hasn’t been sufficient tonic to quell the risk-off vibe in markets. BoJ’s Kuroda repeated, for the umpteenth time, that the central bank will persist with “powerful” monetary stimulus, while Japanese PM Abe said that a delay in the planned sales tax hike would be considered in the scenario of a financial shock. The Nikkei 225 equity index finished 2% for the worse. USDJPY, which has been trending lower since early January, and technically remains in this downtrend, has resistance at 105.94-95.
Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today US Final GDP & Good Trade Balance – MBA mortgage applicationsis due today as well, followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$72.5 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.7% vs 2.5%. Crude Oil Inventories – Support and Resistance level [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Comments
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th February 2017.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are higher in early trade, with the 10-year up 1.4 bp at 0.7% as of 7:28GMT, the 2-year up 0.4 bp at -0.576%, leaving the curve steeper once again as European stock futures move higher, with the DAX future leading the way and up 0.86% after a late rally on Wall Street yesterday. Asian markets also tried to recovered, but the rally started to fizzle out later in the session as rate hike concerns resurfaced and while the Nikkei managed a small gain of 0.16%, the CSI 300 closed with a loss of -2.37%. The relationship between bond and stock markets remains ambiguous but for now improving risk appetite is underpinning stocks and the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral bond markets, versus Bunds. Released at the start of the session, German industrial production corrected -0.6% m/m in December, broadly in line with expectations after a 3.1% m/m rise in November.. Still to come are U.K. house price numbers and a German 10-year auction.
FX Update: The dollar traded mixed versus its major peers and developing world currencies, losing ground to the yen, euro, and sterling, among others, while gaining versus the Australian dollar and some other currencies, including the New Zealand dollar after a short-lived rally the antipodean currency in the wake of an above-forecast Q4 employment report. Wall Street staged a solid rebound yesterday, and Eurostoxx futures are pointing to a positive open on European bourses, though S&P futures have shed 0.8% in overnight trade and Asian markets turned lower, giving back intraday gains and turning negative in some cases. Japan’s Nikke 225 closed with a fractional 0.2% gain, while the Shanghai Composite is showing a loss of 1.8%, and South Korea’s KOSPI a 2.3% loss. This backdrop saw USDJPY and yen crosses grind lower, giving back some of the rebound gains seen yesterday during Wall Street’s rebound. Volatility is likely to remain high in the coming sessions, and we expect to see further dollar and yen outperformance relative to most other currencies.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Non-monetary policy’s ECB meeting
Crude Oil Inventories
Canadian Building Permits – projected to expand 2.0% in December after the 7.7% tumble in November.
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement – The 1.75% policy setting expected to be left in place.
RBNZ Press Conference at 21:00 GMT
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher, with the CSI 300 underperforming once again and heading south, while the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.13%, the ASX 200 moved up a further 0.24% and the Hang Seng 0.58% as of 6:35GMT. The yuan dropped after trade figures missed estimates and amid speculation that policy makers will move to rein in gains. Overnight, RBNZ held steady at 1.75%, matching widespread expectations. Governor Spencer remained dovish, saying “Monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period. Numerous uncertainties remain and policy may need to adjust accordingly. NZDUSD has fallen to 0.7209 from 0.7258 ahead of the Bank’s announcement. Meanwhile today,German trade surplus narrowed as export growth slowed. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.5 bln in December, down from EUR 22.3 bln in the previous month. Exports rose just 0.3% m/m, after jumping 4.1% m/m in December, while import growth slowed to 1.4% m/m from 2.2% m/m. The December number left the total for Q4 at EUR 63.7 bln, up from EUR 62.4 bln in the third quarter of the year, which points to a positive contribution from net exports to overall growth in the last quarter, even if this is nominal data, impacted by exchange rate developments.
FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed today, gaining moderately versus the euro, sterling, Australian dollar, among other currencies, but holding steady versus the Canadian dollar while gaining for a third straight day versus the yen. The Japanese currency has been coming under pressure as market participants trim safe haven trades as global markets find a toehold, albeit a fragile looking one. USDJPY logged a peak at 109.78, extending the rebound from Monday’s low at 108.45. EURJPY and other yen crosses have been seeing a similar price action, including AUDJPY. Japanese data showed the current account data for December at a surplus of Y797.2 bln, down from Y1,347.3 bln in the month prior. BoJ Suzuki said that there is no need for further monetary easing, contrasting in tone to Governor Kuroda, who earlier in the week said that there is no need to think about taking monetary stimulus away with inflation remaining below 1% and well off the BoJ’s 2% target. China January trade data came in much stronger than expected, though a near 40% export survey drove a sharp narrowing in the surplus, prompting the PBoC to guid the CNY lower today after the currency hit a two-year high yesterday. EURUSD lifted back toward 1.2300, reversing some of the losses seen yesterday after ECB’s Nowotny accused the U.S. Treasury of talking the dollar down.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
RBA’s Governor Philip Lowe Speech
BoE’s Monetary Policy Meeting & Inflation Report – The BoE is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.5% and QE totals unchanged, the meeting is likely to mark a sea change in approach after BoE Governor Carney last week forewarned that the central bank is beginning to turn its focus to a more conventional stance of limiting inflation. The inflation report is likely see the BoE upgrade its growth assessment, particularly the scope for self-sustaining private sector growth while highlighting a tightening labour market and rising wages.
Canadian Housing Starts – projected to slow further to a 210.0k unit pace in January from 217.0k in December.
US Unemployment Claims – expected to rise to 232k from 230k in the week-ended January 27.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are oscillating around the 0.76% mark in opening trade, little changed from yesterday, the 2-year Schatz yield is steady at -0.56%, and while at the short end peripherals are outperforming, at the long end spreads are little changed. With the stock correction ongoing there remains hope that it will prompt a rethink at central banks, although the BoE’s hawkish statement yesterday highlighted that this may not be the case and officials elsewhere have so far also remained pretty calm. UK100 and CAC 40 futures are in the red after a negative session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed down more than 2%, but GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Stocks continued to sell off in Asia, after Wall Street plunged. China’s push for deleveraging and broader concerns about rising interest rates has seen markets correcting more than 10% so far with no real sign of intervention from authorities.
FX Update: The dollar has been trading mixed, losing ground to the euro, sterling, among other currencies, while gaining on the yen and Australian dollar . USDJPY clocked a four-day low of 108.49 in the early Tokyo session before rebounding above 109.0, dropping amid a phase of yen buying after the Dow clocked a 4%-plus closing loss on Wall Street, before rebounding. The marked widening in the U.S. 10-year Treasury over JGB yield spread this week has gotten mention in market narratives as being behind the rebound in USDJPY, although the pair remains nearly 1% down on the week. The U.S. Senate passed the budget and stopgap funding bill, although too late to prevent a government shutdown, which, assuming the House follows suits and passes the bill before midday, will make the shutdown a very short-lived affair. The episode didn’t appear to have had much bearing on the dollar. Sterling, which corrected sharply following its post-BoE gains of yesterday, rallied after remarks by MPC member Broadbent in a BBC radio interview earlier, where he said that a couple of 25 bp rate hikes this year wouldn’t be a great shock to the economy. Cable hit an intraday high of 1.3978, but has remained well off the post-BoE peak at 1.4067. AUDUSD hit a six-week low at 0.7759 following the release of the RBA’s latest SOMP, which took aim at the Australian dollar while trimming employment forecasts.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Manufacturing Production – Production data for December anticipated at 0.9% m/m decline in the industrial output reading after a 0.4% gain in the month prior, and a 0.3% gain in the narrower manufacturing production measure, which is seen a better gauge of underlying production trends, after an outsized 2.5% m/m in the month prior.
UK Goods Trade Balance – is expected to narrow to £-11.6B bln in December from £-12.2 bln in November.
Canadian Employment Change – expected to show a 20.0k gain after the 64.8k surge in December and 81.2k rise in November. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.8%. Wages will again be in the spotlight, with the average hourly wage projected to accelerate to 3.6% y/y from 2.7% y/y in December.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Volatility had mostly expired under the boot of the Federal Reserve QE policy stance and that of its central banking brethren. But as central bankers have begun to take their foot pedal by undertaking quantitative tapering and tightening, vol has proven that it’s “not dead yet,” but merely dormant until the appropriate moment.Looking ahead, input from around the globe should be mixed this week, with stock markets overseas taking their cue from a suddenly reflexive Wall Street.
United States: U.S. economic calendar starts out at a snail’s pace, with the Treasury budget (Monday) forecast to post a $51 bln surplus (median $47 bln) for January vs -$23.2 bln. The NFIB small business optimism index (Tuesday) will provide the main entertainment. MBA mortgage market indices (Wednesday) are due, along with a potentially key update on January CPI, and January retail sales. The calendar really loads up (Thursday) with PPI, Philly Fed, Empire, claims, production, NAHB housing market index, and TIC data. The week will round out (Friday) with an update on January housing starts, which are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.20 mln unit pace. Fedspeak will be unusually limited this week, with just Cleveland Fed hawk Mester on tap (Tuesday) to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Dayton Area Chamber of Commerce from 8 ET.
Canada: In Canada, the data and events docket is sparse. The December manufacturing report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 0.5% gain in shipment values after the 3.4% surge in November. The Teranet/National HPI for January is due Wednesday, while January existing home sales (Thursday)are on tap. ADP publishes its payrolls report for January (Thursday). BoC Deputy Governor Schembri (Thursday) speaks to the Manitoba Association for Business Economics in Winnipeg. His remarks will be available on the BoC’s website at 13:30 ET.
Europe: Market volatility seems to be here to stay as investors adjust to the prospect of higher yields and less central bank support, and so far at least officials seem to be viewing developments with calm. Bundesbank President Weidmann played down both the strength of the EUR as well as the sell-off in stocks. Meanwhile data releases this week including Q4 GDP numbers and some final January inflation numbers, though they are unlikely to challenge the ECB’s baseline assumption of robust economic expansion amid a sanguine inflation environment that only gradually starts to move toward the ECB’s target. Eurozone GDP growth (Wednesday) is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. The German Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is expected at 0.7%, down from 0.8% in the previous quarter and Italy GDP growth at 0.6% q/q (median 0.5%). German HICP inflation (Wednesday) meanwhile is expected to be confirmed at just -0.7% y/y and the Spanish headline reading also at just 0.7% y/y, both far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. However, recent German wage deals suggest a gradual build in domestic price pressures going ahead as the labor market continues to tighten. The data calendar also has Eurozone production (Wednesday), and trade numbers (Thursday), as well as ECB speakers including Weidmann and Mersch. Supply comes from Spain and France on Thursday, while Germany auctions 30 year Bunds on Wednesday.
UK: The BoE last week upgraded its assessment for economic growth while at the same time acknowledging that productivity has been lackluster, the sum of which led to an unexpected ratchet in hawkish guidance, leading to a possible rate hike from November to May. However, Brexit-related concerns — an area of emphasized contingency for the BoE — were soon to resurface. Brexit negotiations have entered a crucial phase, with both the EU and UK seeking to make a tentative accord on both a post-Brexit transition period and the form of a post-Brexit trading relationship, all in time for the EU leaders’ summit in late March. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the release of January inflation data (Tuesday), along with retail sales figures for the same month (Friday). The headline CPI expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.
Japan: Japan will be closed Monday from National Foundation Day. The markets will reopen Tuesday to he January PPI report, for which a 2.8% y/y reading is expected, slowing from the 3.1% pace previously. Preliminary Q4 GDP (Tuesday) is seen rising 1.1%, versus the previous 2.5% clip. December machinery orders (Thursday) are pencilled in posting a 2.0% m/m decline after climbing 5.7% in November. Revised December industrial production is also on deck Thursday.
Australia: the employment report (Thursday) is the focus. The total employment is expected at 20.0k gain during January after the 34.7k gain in December. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.5%. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor (Economic) Ellis speaks from Sydney (Tuesday). Governor Lowe appears before the House of Representatives’ Standing Committee on Economics (Friday).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2018.
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly moved higher. Japanese markets returned from yesterday’s holiday’s in a good mood, but pared gains as the yen strengthened and Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.65%, the Topix was down -0.88%. In Europe, 10-year Bund yields are down -0.7 bp at 0.744% in opening trade, the 2-year is up 0.3 bp at -0.591%, leaving the curve flatter. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.848% while JGBs underperformed in Asia and the 10-year nudged slightly higher despite a stronger yen. European stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures setting up European equities for a correction from yesterday’s gains. Markets remain nervous as long yields continue to trend higher. The focus in Europe today will be on U.K. inflation data, with CPI expected to fall below 3% for the first time since August.
FX Update:The dollar traded mostly softer as the global equity rebound extended in Asia after Wall Street yesterday completed its biggest two-day rebound in just over two years. The U.S. currency has been correlating inversely with global stock market direction of late on the causation that risk-on phases have seen investors divest of dollars and dollar assets in favour of higher yielding opportunities, and vice versa. The narrow trade-weighted USD index has declined 0.3% to 89.94, earlier clocking a four-session low at 89.88. Cable and USDCAD have remained within their respective ranges from yesterday, while USDJPY and yen crosses have traded lower in Tokyo, where markets have reopened after a long weekend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has bucked the global equity rebound, closing with a 0.8% loss, while U.S. equity index futures are also lower. AUDUSD saw a four-day high at 0.7874, aided by data showing Australian January business conditions rising to 19 from 13, with overall confidence lifting to a reading of 12, up from 11. The rand took a hit after the South African Congress ordered President Zuma to resign. News out of Japan today include remarks from Japan Economy Minister Motegi, who argued that Abe’s stance on monetary policy (i.e. ultra dovish) must be maintained. Japan January PPI came in at 0.3% m/m, as expected, after 2.7% y/y in the month prior.
Main Macro Events Today
UK CPI – expected to dip to 2.9% y/y after 3.0% in December, which would continue a modest climb down from the 3.1% cycle peak that was seen in November. An as-expected outcome would comfortably fit BoE projections, with the central bank forecasting CPI to have retreated to 2.2% at the two-year forecasting horizon in Q1 2020.
UK PPI – PPI core Input expected to rise to 0.7% in January from 0.1% seen in December.
FOMC Member Mester Speech
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th February 2018.[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-14_9-14-15.png[/IMG]
[B]FX News Today[/B]
European Fixed Income Outlook: Chinese stock markets continued to recover, while Japanese stocks remained under pressure and the ASX 200, also closed in the red today, after gains yesterday. Wall Street managed to close with modest gains yesterday after recovering early losses, but the stronger yen hit Japanese stocks as investors prepare for U.S. CPI, which is judged to be the next directional signal for markets. Long yields declined across the board in Asia, with the 10-year JGB down -0.4 bp, the 10-year Treasury down -1.3 bp. U.S. stock futures and U.K. futures are higher, oil prices little changed at USD 59.17 per barrel.Japanese growth data today disappointed, with Q4 GDP falling to 0.5% q/q growth in they seasonally adjusted annualized figure, off the median forecast of 0.9% growth.
German GDP growth slowed to 0.6% q/q in Q4, from 0.8% q/q in the third quarter of the year. German Jan HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.4% y/y in line with the preliminary number and versus 1.6% y/y in December. the national CPI rate was confirmed at 1.6% y/y versus 1.7% y/y in December. Energy price inflation continued to decelerate, which contributed to the decline in the headline rate and compensated for higher food prices. Food price inflation has been running at 3% and higher since August last year. Rent prices are also picking up. All in all a lower headline rate than initially expected and an HICP rate that is clearly below the ECB’s target, but with wage growth set to pick up after recent wage agreements and with an ever tighter labour market German inflation is likely to continue to trend higher, despite the set back at the start of the year.
[B]Charts of the Day[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-14_9-13-37-1024x715.png[/IMG]
[B]Main Macro Events Today[/B]
Eurozone Prelim. GDP – the overall growth rate for the Eurozone is expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q , in line with the preliminary number. Anything less than major surprises won’t change the overall picture of a growth trajectory that is looking stronger than previously thought with confidence indicators remaining robust leaving the hawks at the ECB increasingly convinced that the Eurozone won’t need further net asset purchases beyond September.
US Retail Sales – January retail sales forecast to rise 0.2% headline and 0.5% ex-auto.
US CPI – expected to increase 0.3% headline and just 0.1% core, leaving core y/y at 1.7%, down from 1.8%
[B]Support and Resistance levels[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-14_9-37-09.png[/IMG]
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]
[B]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian stock markets moved broadly higher, after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. Investors seem to get slowly used to the idea of further U.S. tightening and a trend higher in global yields, but set backs on the way are still likely. The Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.47%, despite a stronger yen. The ASX 200 gained 1.16% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 1.97% and 0.80% respectively. Bund yields continue to rise in opening trade, peripherals are outperforming as risk appetite continues to improve and European stock futures move higher in tandem with U.S. futures, after a strong session in Asia and following on from yesterday’s gains. US and UK100 futures are moving up, suggesting that the recovery in stocks continues and oil prices are higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.83 per barrel. Today’s European calendar is unlikely to shake things up significantly with Eurozone trade numbers for December the main highlight.
FX Update: The dollar has declined for a fourth-straight session versus the euro and other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) is presently at a two-week low of 88.80, showing a 0.3% decline on the day and now racking up a 1.8% loss on the week so far. EURUSD lifted to a two-week peak of 1.2487, and AUDUSD also posted a two-week high, while Cable logged a one-week high. USDJPY continued to lead the dollar lower, with the pair showing over a 0.6% loss on the day as the London interbank community take to their desks. This is despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to four-year highs during the Asia session, which extended the move seen since yesterday’s hotter than expected U.S. CPI data. The revived risk appetite evident in global markets has been putting U.S. held assets out of favour as investors seek out higher yields, which is weighing on the greenback. With regard to USDJPY specifically, also in the mix were remarks by Japan’s finance minister, Aso, who said that recent yen strength was not sufficient to “require intervention.”
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
ECB’s Mersch, Praet and Lautenschlager Speech
US PPI – PPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in January, while core may increase 0.2%, though core y/y at 2.0% would be below 2.3% previously.
US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may rebound 9k to 230k for the week ended February 10.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – may ease slightly to 20.0 in February vs 22.2 and the Empire State index is set to tick up to 18.0 in February vs 17.7.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2018.[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-16_9-25-37.png[/IMG]
[B]FX News Today[/B]
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets mostly moved higher in Asia, after another positive close on Wall Street. China and Hong Kong alongside other markets were closed for Lunar New Year holidays, which muted trading, but the Nikkei gained 1.19%, while the ASX lost early gains and closed with a marginal loss of -0.08%. The yen continued to advance and 10-year JGB’s dipped -0.8 bp to 0.049%, as Kuroda was nominated to lead the BoJ for another five year term. 10-year Treasury yields declined -0.5 to 2.904% and oil prices picked up slightly, with the March Nymex future trading at USD 61.51 per barrel.Kuroda officially nominated for second term as BoJ governor. As widely expected Abe nominated Kuroda to stay another five years and reports that Waseda University professor Wakatabe, along with BoJ Executive Director Amamiya, will take the deputy governor roles were also confirmed. The nominations were sent to the steering committee of parliament’s lower house and will have to be confirmed by both houses of parliament. Wakatabe is known for advocating “bolder monetary easing” and Amamiya has worked closely with Kuroda. The move should ensure another five years of monetary stimulus from the BoJ and is likely to have underpinned the dip in 10-year BoJ yields today.
FX Update: Another day, another decline in the dollar, which logged a new 38-month low versus the euro, at 1.2554, and a 15-month low against the yen, at 105.54. The USD index (DXY) is down by 0.3%, 88.37, earlier clocking a 37-month low at 88.33. The greenback has also seen fresh lows against most newly developed and developing world currencies. Continued gains in global stock markets have continued to inspire dollar selling, as investors seek out higher yielding opportunities. USDJPY declines came despite the nomination of Kuroda for another term at the helm of the BoJ, along with nominations for the two deputy governor positions of inflationist candidates, Amamiya and Wakatabe.
[B]Charts of the Day[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/2018-02-16_9-24-06-1024x712.png[/IMG]
[B]Main Macro Events Today[/B]
UK Retail Sales – a 0.5% m/m rebound is anticipated after the sharp, and at the time much weaker than expected, 1.5% contraction in December.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales– shipment values, are expected to reveal a 0.2% gain in December after the 3.4% surge in November. The projection is driven by 0.6% rise in export values during December that came on the heels of a 3.6% surge in November.
US Building Permits and housing Starts – January housing starts are expected to rise 0.6% to a 1.23 mln unit pace, while Building Permits are seen at 1.30mln.
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment – is forecast to rise to 95.5 in February from 95.7.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]
[B]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Asian markets headed south in tandem with U.S. futures, after sentiment turned sour once again during the European session yesterday and yields resumed their uptrend. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.7265, after gaining more than 2% yesterday. The Hang Seng was down -0.23% as of 6:40GMT, while mainland China remained closed for a holiday. EGB yields moved broadly higher at the start of the week, with core markets outperforming and stock markets correcting as risk aversion picked up again. Trading was quieter than usual with U.S. and Canada on holiday and Hong Kong and China among others closed during the Asian session. Japanese stocks still managed to rally, but while European markets opened slightly higher, they quickly pared gains and as of 15:44GMT the GER30 was down -0.40%, the UK100 down -0.51%. Italian stock and bond markets underperformed as the election casts is shadows. The 10-year Bund gained 2.8 bp today and is at 0.73%, the Gilt is up 1.6 bp at 1.597%, while the Italian 10-year is up 6.8 bp at 2.044%. The short end outperformed and 2-year yields are down -0.1 bp in Germany and up a mere 0.7 bp in the U.K., leaving the curve steeper. Traders are looking to U.S. auctions and FOMC minutes for the Jan meeting for direction, as markets remain volatile amid the gradual withdrawal of central bank support. European finance ministers gathered for Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings but with Ireland withdrawing of central bank head Lane for Constancio’s position as vice president the way is free for Spanish economy minister Guindos to take over.
FX Update: The dollar continued to hold firm, extending the same theme for a second day. This came with 2-year U.S. Treasury yields rising to a near 10-year high in Asia today, and with stock market sentiment having soured somewhat following a week-long rebound. The USD index (DXY) posted a four-session high of 89.44, extending the rebound from Friday’s 37-monnth low to 1.4%. EURUSD remained heavy after logging four-session low at 1.2369 yesterday. USDJPY lifted for a third straight session, this time logging a four-session high of 106.95, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY with a broader bid in the dollar also been at play. The yen’s past inverse correlation with stock market direction has remained absent, with equity markets in Asia turning lower today, following the souring in sentiment that was seen during the PM session on European bourses yesterday. The dollar also traded firmer versus the likes of the baht, Singapore dollar and rand, along with most other newly developed and developing-world currencies. One exception was the Australian dollar ,which outperformed today, posting a 0.4% gain versus the yen, and a 0.2% rise against the U.S. buck.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – a dip in the German ZEW Investor Sentiment expected to 16.2 from 20.4 in January.
EU Consumer Confidence – is expected to correct to 1.0 from 1.3 in January.
NZ GDT Price Index
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.1 bp at 0.717%, following on from broad corrections in Asian long yields overnight, while the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 bp at 2.891%. The 2-year Schatz yield is down -0.6 bp at -0.522%, leaving the curve flatter from the long end, but amid the temporary set backs, the longer uptrend in long yields continues. European stock futures meanwhile are heading south, while U.S. futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight, where the Hang Seng outperformed.Japanese equity markets fluctuated between gains and losses after Wall Street closed in the red and the Topix closed with a loss of -0.05%, while the Nikkei managed a gain of 0.21% as a weaker yen bolstered exporters. European data releases today include Eurozone preliminary PMI readings for February as well as U.K. labour market data and public finance numbers.
FX Update: The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USDJPY, which lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EURJPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USDJPY, as a broader bid in the dollar has also been at play. EURUSD posted a four-session low at 1.2317. Data out of Asia today included Japan’s flash manufacturing PMI for February, which ebbed to a 54.0 headline reading form 54.8 in January, and mixed figures out of Australia. Chinese markets remained closed for the Lunar New Year. Japan’s vice minister of finance for international affairs (the power position regarding forex intervention decisions), Asakawa, said that “I cannot help but assess the [yen] movements as one-sided,” and noted that surging U.S. Treasury yields is the “beginning of a sea change.”
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone February’s PMIs – The February Eurozone manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 59.3 from 59.6, while the services reading slips to 57.6 from 58.0. Those should leave the composite at 58.5, down from January’s 58.8.
UK Labour Market data – isWe expect the CBI surveys to show a modest abatement in the headline total orders reading for industrial trends, to 11 (median same) from 14, and a slightly increased in the headline realized sales figure for the distributive sales survey, to 14 (median same) from 12. We expect unemployment to remain at 4.3% (median same), in addition to an unchanged average income reading of 2.5% y/y for the with-bonus figure (which would still lag inflation, which stands at 3.0%).
US Markit PMI – The February manufacturing PMI, is seen falling to 55.4 from 55.5, while the services reading rises to 54.0 from 53.3. Those should leave the composite at 54.4, up from January’s 53.8.
FOMC Minutes
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields moved higher across Asia, after yesterday’s correction, thus putting fresh pressure on stock markets. The 10-year JGB yield is up 0.1 bp at 0.046%, other markets under-performed, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.1 bp at 2.939%. Investors fretted over the Fed’s upbeat assessment of the economy as the FOMC minutes saw risks roughly balanced, but mentioned increased upside risks to the near term. U.S. futures are heading south, after a mixed session in Asia. Mainland China bourses rallied in catch up trade and the CSI 300 is up 1.99%, while Nikkei and Hang Seng corrected markedly and the ASX closed with a modest gain of 0.12%. The Topix meanwhile lost -0.88%, the Nikkei -1.07% and the Hang Seng also nearly 1%. The yen strengthened against the dollar and oil prices slipped back with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.07 per barrel.
FX Update: FOMC minutes showed a majority saw stronger growth in the economy and agreed a gradual rate hike approach was still appropriate. Indeed, a number of policymakers raised their growth forecasts since the December meeting and saw upside risks to growth. However, officials noted “few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth.” And “almost all” do expect inflation to reach to the 2% goal. Several members did caution about financial market imbalances. The report supports expectations for a 25 bp tightening in March, but of course doesn’t settle the issue of 2 or 4 rate hikes this year, which is dependent on the data reflecting the economy and inflation. Fed funds futures are little changed after the FOMC minutes, but are paring small losses earlier, in tandem with the slide in nominal yields. The minutes didn’t really tell us anything new. But the futures were primed for a slightly more hawkish tone.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
German IFO – expected to correct to 117.0 from 117.6 in January, with the risk to the downside after the sharper than expected corrections in PMI readings.
UK GDP Data – unrevised GDP data for Q4 last year, anticipated at 0.5% q/q and 1.5% y/y.
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – will be scrutinised for indications of how far the ECB’s discussions about the expected change in guidance have progressed. It is widely anticipated that a growing number of council members will be arguing for a change in language as the ECB heads toward the March meeting, which will also include updated staff projections.
Canadian Retail Sales – Retail sales are expected to dip 0.3% m/m in December on the heels of the tepid 0.2% gain in November.
US Unemployment Claims and Oil Inventories – U.S. initial jobless claims are expected to hold at 230k in the BLS survey week, versus the week-ended February 10. Continuing claims are expected to fall 12k to 1,930k
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Yields dipped in Asia. 10-year rates are down -1.0 bp in South Korea after the central bank left policy on hold. 10-year JGBs are down -0.5 bp at 0.032%, 10-year Treasury yields fell back -0.4 bp to 2.859%, after initially trying to move higher. Eurozone peripheral markets are outperforming and European stock futures are higher, after a mixed session in Asia, where markets in Hong Kong and mainland China sold off, while Topix and Nikkei closed with solid gains. U.S. futures are heading south, however, and the stock rally that was fuelled by hopes that central banks will slow the withdrawal of support, is starting to stutter ahead of Powell’s testimony that is hoped to give a clearer guidance on the outlook. Draghi continued to sit on the fence yesterday and we expect Powell’s comments to be also rather balanced. Today’s local calendar focuses on German inflation numbers and Eurozone ESI economic confidence.
FX Update: The dollar majors have posted narrow ranges so far today as many market participants sit on their hands into the Congressional testimony of the new Fed chairman, Powell. USDJPY has held a narrow range, logging a high of 107.10 before settling in the upper 106.00s, holding comfortably within yesterday’s range. EURUSD lifted to an intraday peak of 1.2342 before settling around 1.2330, leaving yesterday’s high at 1.2355 unchallenged. Regarding Powell, most Fed watchers, including ourselves, expect he will signal a gradualist approach to tightening, maintaining continuity in approach from his predecessor, Yellen. This expectation was cited in equity market summaries yesterday as justifying the strong close on Wall Street, though U.S. equity index futures have come off the boil in overnight trading, and stocks have been mixed in Asia, where Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed with a 1% gain but Chinese and some other markets have posted losses. The New Zealand dollar came under pressure after NZ trade data showed an unexpected deficit in January of NZ$ 566 mln. NZDUSD logged a two-session low of 0.7273.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone ESI – rounds up the February confidence numbers and a dip to 114.3 is expected from 114.7 after preliminary consumer confidence already dipped sharply. Unlike other confidence readings the ESI already dipped in January, but overall readings remain at high levels and consistent with ongoing robust growth with PMI readings suggesting that job creation remains strong, which backs expectations for gradually rising wages going forward.
US CB Consumer Confidence- The Consumer confidence should remain buoyant at 126.7 in February and the Richmond Fed index is sent to rise to 16.0 in February from 14.
US Core Durable Goods – seen sinking 2.5% in January from 2.8%, while advanced indicators goods trade gap may widened to -$73.4 bln in January from -$72.3 bln. Also on tap is the FHFA home price index, seen rising 0.4% to 257.0, while Case-Shiller home prices may be flat in December.
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: : Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, as yields moved higher in the wake of Powell’s testimony yesterday and weaker than expected data out of China and Japan added to pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield is down from earlier highs, but remains up 0.7 bp on the day and sightly above the 2.9% mark. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.9 bp at 0.042%. Stock markets meanwhile got stung by the reminder that central banks are still on course to take out stimulus and Powell’s reference to the risk of overheating and the Nikkei closed with a loss of 1.44%, the Topix was down -1.23% at the close. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.46% and -0.62% respectively, as China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 from 51.3 and Japan industrial production dropped -6.6% m/m. U.S. stock futures are also heading south as are UK100 futures and the front end WTI future is down on the day at USD 62.72 per barrel. The very busy data calendar today include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone inflation numbers, the Swiss KOF and a German 10-year auction.
German GfK consumer confidence dipped to 10.8 with March numbers from 11.0 in February. An unexpected correction after the surprisingly strong February numbers. The full details for February, show economic expectations falling back in tandem with income expectations and the willingness to buy, although the willingness to save turned even more negative. Overall readings remains at very high levels, like business confidence surveys, but suggest some levelling off which will back the arguments of the ECB doves for caution with regard to any changes in guidance.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
German Labour Data – Confidence readings may have fallen back more than expected in February, but preliminary PMI reports still suggested that companies remain sufficiently optimistic about the recovery to take on more staff and German jobless numbers expected to dip -15K in February, leaving the jobless rate unchanged at just 5.4%.
Eurozone Inflation – The Eurozone HICP for February was expected to show a headline rate of 1.2% y/y, but has a bias to the downside after yesterday’s preliminary readings from Spain and Germany. The former may have come in higher than expected, but the latter fell back more than anticipated. Still, the German numbers also suggested that much of the dip was due to base effects from energy and food prices, so the real focus will be on core inflation, rather than the headline rate and even German numbers suggest that could remain steady.
US Prelim GDP – a second release of Q4 GDP likely trimmed to 2.5% from 2.6%.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: :Asian bond yields mostly dropped, with the 10-year JGB down -0.8 bp at 0.035%, after dovish BoJ comments. The 10-year Treasury yield has stabilised, after yesterday’s slide and is trading at 2.86%. The dip in yields yesterday did nothing to boost stock market confidence and Wall Street closed with broad losses. The negative sentiment spilled over into Asian markets and Nikkei and Topix closed with losses of 1.56% and 1.59% respectively, and stocks were also under pressure in Hong Kong and Australia with materials and health care stocks leading the way. Mainland China bourses outperformed after a better than expected Caixin manufacturing PMI and the CSI 300 is up 0.42%. Markets remain nervous ahead of Powell’s hearing, after the Fed Chairman’s comments hit markets earlier in the week. Reports that Trump plans a 25% tariff on steel imports is adding to pressure. U.S. futures are mostly down, while oil prices are marginally higher on the day with the front end WTI future trading at USD 61.70 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland. the U.K. also has lending data, the Eurozone jobless numbers and there are bond auctions in Spain and France.
FX Update: The dollar has remained underpinned versus most currencies, bolstering to the USD index (DXY) to a five-week high of 90.74 and pushing EURUSD to a six-week low of 1.2183. AUDUSD has registered the biggest move in trade so far on the calendar day out of the currencies we track, showing a 0.4% decline, with the Australian dollar underperforming amid reports that Trump is set to announce a 25% tariff on U.S. steel imports. Australian is the world’s biggest export of iron ore, which is the base metal of steel. AUDUSD logged a two-month low at 0.7717, and AUDJPY, a cross that many consider is a forex market barometer of global investor risk appetite, has forayed into nine-month low terrain. USDJPY, while having recouped to the upper 106.0s, edged out a two-day low of 106.53 earlier in Tokyo trade, and EURJPY posted its lowest level since last mid September, at 129.85. The yen’s outperformance has come amid a backdrop of falling equity markets amid a backdrop of Fed tightening expectations and concerns about Trump starting trade wars.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK & Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – The February Eurozone Markit manufacturing PMI, is seen unchanged at at 58.5.
US Core PCE and Jobless claims – Initial jobless claims for the February 17 week will be scrutinized at it coincides with the BLS survey week. It is expected to released at 226K from 222K last week. Personal income is expected to grow 0.2% in January, while consumption should rise 0.2% as well.
Fed Chair Powell Testifies
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – ISM is expected to drop to 58.7 in February from 59.1.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields are mixed in Asia. 10-year JGBs trailed Treasuries and sold off, with the yield up 0.8 bp at 0.055%, while the 10-year Treasury yields jumped 2 bp to 2.83%. Yields headed south in Australia and New Zealand. The global stock market sell off meanwhile continued in Asia overnight, Nikkei and Topix lost 2.5% and 1.8% respectively, undermined by U.S. President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs in imported steel and aluminium, which together with a stronger yen weighed on exporters. The rise in long yields moved amid a drop in the jobless rate and a rise in Tokyo inflation added to pressure. U.S. futures are starting to stabilise, however, oil prices remain under pressure, with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.92 per barrel. In Europe,the 10-year Bund yield is down -2.1 bp at 0.616% as of 7:25GMT, extending opening losses after weaker than expected German retail sales and a dip in import price inflation at the start of the session. European stock futures are deeply in the red, after a sell off in Asia overnight. The local calendar still has the U.K. CIPS construction PMI as well as Eurozone producer price inflation.
Fed Chairman Powell had been largely bullish, Fed’s Dudley later seemed at ease with 4 hikes and that didn’t help along with the tariff/trade concerns. Powell’s testimony included a lot of discussion was on the labor market, wages, and inflation. He did note at Tuesday’s hearing that there was still some slack in the system, but was the markets instead focused on his comments about keeping a gradual tightening posture in place to prevent the economy from “overheating,” as well as on his optimism on growth following tax legislation. He stressed several times that wage inflation isn’t at a point of acceleration and isn’t expected to push up inflation. He does expect wages and prices to be moving up, but he didn’t suggest inflation is on the brink or a breakout. The PCE deflator data supports that conclusion. It’s still the case the Fed will increase the funds rate another 25 bps at the end of the month.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Prime Minister May Speech
UK Construction PMI – the construction PMI expected to come in at 50.5 from 50.2, which would affirm a sector barely limping along.
BOE Gov Carney Speaks in London, for the evolution of money and the emergence of Crypto-currencies.
Canadian GDP – December GDP is seen flat (0.0%) after the 0.4% jump in November. The separate GDP report is projected to reveal a 2.0% real growth pace (q/q, saar) following the 1.7% growth rate in Q3.
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment – Final Michigan sentiment for February may tick up to 99.5 from 99.9 prelim.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.3 bp at 0.651% as of 7:20GMT, French 10-year yields are also up amid a wider rise in long yields, with 10-year JGBs up 0.046% and 10-year Treasury yields up 0.2 bp. Stock markets continued to bounce back in Asia as investor fears of a global trade war receded and the RBA left the cash rate unchanged and sounded slightly less optimistic on its growth projections. Italian 10-year yields are slightly down and below the 2% mark and it seems the messy Italian election result won’t lead to a wider crisis in Eurozone bond markets. Stocks meanwhile continue to recover and European stock futures are moving higher with U.S. futures after a positive session in Asia, where the Nikkei closed with a gain of 1.79%, ASX 200 rose 1.14% and the Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 2.26% and 1.21% respectively. Meanwhile, Oil prices are also higher with the front end WTI future trading at USD 62.68 per barrel. Trump said he’s not backing down on tariffs in the steel and aluminum sectors, though Mexico and Canada want to talk about them in the context of NAFTA. Trump suggested that if the U.S. can make a good deal on NAFTA, then the tariffs can be addressed for Canada and Mexico. He said the biggest problem on trade is China and he doesn’t think there will be a trade war inspired by the steel and aluminum tariffs.
FX Update: The dollar majors have been in consolidation mode. with EURUSD, USDJPY, Cable, AUDUSD, along with the main crosses, including EURJPY, GBPJPY and AUDCAD, trading at near net unchanged levels as the London interbank market takes to its collective desk. This has come amid a backdrop of recovering global stock markets. EURUSD has traded on either side of 1.2350, drifting lower in the latest phase, to around 1.2335. The pair has held below the 13-day high seen yesterday at 1.2365. USDJPY settled lower, back around 105.20 after scaling to a three-session high in the wake of the Tokyo fixing. EURJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action, posting fresh highs before turning lower.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Swiss CPI – expected to rise at 0.2% from decline seen on January.
FOMC Member Dudley Speech – takes part in a round-table on the U.S. Virgin Islands recovery effort.
Canadian Ivey PMI- Canada’s Ivey PMI expected to rise to 56.3 after falling to 55.2 in January on a seasonally adjusted basis from 60.4 in December. The Ivey remains consistent with an expanding economy.
MPC Member Haldane and RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.3 bp at 0.655% in early trade, the 2-year down -1.4 bp at 0.58%. The correction comes amid a wider decline in long yields globally, led by Treasuries. European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures and after a sell off in equities during the Asian session as concerns about a global trade war pick up again. S&P 500 futures are down over 1% on Cohn resignation, the head of the National Economic Council, and who had been key figure in Trump’s administration. Many White House watchers say Cohn his departure is over Trump’s sudden push toward trade protectionism. The news broke after the close of the regular session on Wall Street yesterday, and the losses in index futures foreshadow to a sharp decline at the open later today. The narrative is that Cohn’s departure effectively signals that the protectionist cohort of advisers in the administration, led by the head of the Office of Trade, Navarro, have won out, leaving the White House without a heavyweight advocate of globalization sentiment, suggesting that Trump will go the distance with his trade protectionist campaign pledge, risking a trade war that most economists, see as negative for the U.S. and global economies. Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone Q4 GDP as well as U.K. house price data from the Halifa
FX Update: The yen has rallied on a safe haven bid following the resignation of Gary Cohn, the head of the National Economic Council, which many onlookers are taking as effectively signalling that the Trump administration will go the distance in trade protectionism. The biggest movers out of the main yen crosses have been CADJPY and AUDJPY, with the Canadian and Australian economies seen as being exposed to a global trade war. The confirmation hearings of the new BoJ deputy governors today produced more dovish rhetoric, with Amamiya, for instance, saying that it is “very regrettable” that inflation hasn’t hit target yet, though to little impact on the yen.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone GDP – Q4 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.6% q/q, and 2.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary reading. This leaves the focus on the full breakdown, which will be released for the first time and is likely to show ongoing investment and a pick up in exports, with the latter helping to underpin growth at the end of last year.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change , Trade Balance – The January trade deficit should post its 5th consecutive month of widening, to -$54.1 bln from December’s -$53.1 bln, amid declines in imports and exports. Q4 Productivity in Q4 should be unrevised at -0.1%, while Unit labor costs are expected to be bumped up to 2.1%. Tthe February ADP private payroll survey, expected to reveal 195K jobs excluding the farming industry and government, from 234K last month.
Canadian Trade Balance – The January trade deficit is seen narrowing to -C$2.5 bln from -C$3.2 bln in December. Productivity is expected to edge 0.1% higher in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.6% drop in Q3.
BOC Rate Statement & Interest rate Decision – The main event is the BoC’s rate announcement , which is expected to result in no change to the current 1.25% rate setting. In January, strong recent data, an economy operating close to capacity and inflation close to target was cited alongside the decision to reduce accommodation. Economic data since the January announcement have been somewhat disappointing, with the 1.7% gain in Q4 GDP undershooting the BoC’s 2.5% estimateUncertainties remain elevated, especially after the proposed steel and aluminum tariffs from President Trump raised the specter of a trade war while lending a bit of pessimism to the ongoing NAFTA talks. The BoC will not hold a press conference, while the next MPR is in April, leaving a short and sweet announcement for the market to mull.
Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Concerns about a global trade war are receding and after European stocks bounced back during the PM session yesterday, Asian markets followed and rebounded from the lows of the previous session, despite a tepid close on Wall Street. Nikkei and Topix rose 0.54% and -.35% respectively, the ASX was up 0.69% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 gained 1.40% and 0.76% so far. The slew of data releases helped to shrug off trade concerns. Japan GDP came in higher than expected and showed an annualised quarterly rate of 1.6%, versus Bloomberg expectations of 1.0%. Japan’s economy has grown for eight straight quarters, as global growth has underpinned export demand, supporting business investment and corporate profits. However, we have yet to see robust wage gains or consumer spending. Inflation has accelerated but remains well short of the BoJ’s 2% target. China’s trade surplus also came in better than expected, with exports growth accelerating sharply. The positive sentiment also seems to be spilling over with U.S. futures moving higher.
FX Update: USDJPY has remained within yesterday’s range so far in Asian trading today, posting a range so far of 105.92-106.20. Market participants are still fathoming Trump’s tariffs, which will reportedly be signed off on today, and become effective in two weeks time, but which will include temporary exceptions on Mexico and Canada (subject to how the Trump administration deems NAFTA negotiations go). Bitcoin has slumped 10.3% to the $9600 area compared to 24-hour highs of $10,911 and lows of $9,450, breaking back below $10k after a period of consolidation and recovery after its downdraft earlier in the year. Coincidentally, Bloomberg is reporting that the bankruptcy attorney, Nobuaki Kobayashi, for creditors of the failed Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange has sold some $400 mln in Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash since September and has another $1.9 bln to go. His aim is reportedly to get the highest price possible and has been averaging as sale price of $10,015. That’s certainly one whale of a headwind for gains from here, along with SEC crackdown on rogue digital exchanges and other potential regulation.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
ECB Rates Decision – The ECB is widely expected to keep rates unchanged and confirm the current QE schedule that runs until the end of September, leaving the focus on the forward guidance. ECB officials are increasingly split on the question of the guidance on the QE program, with a growing number of council members arguing for a commitment to an end date for net asset purchases as the economy strengthens. Data since the last meeting backed the dovish camp as are political headwinds with trade war fears and Brexit still hanging over markets and underpinning volatility. The Italian election had only temporary impact, however, and Germany’s Merkel was finally confirmed as Chancellor so the hawks also have something to argue with.
Canadian Building Permits & NHPI – Housing starts are seen edging lower to a 216.6k pace in February from 216.2k in January. Building permits are anticipated to slip 1.0% in January after the 4.8% gain in values during December.
ECB Press Conference –
BOC Gov Poloz and Gov council Member Lane Speeches
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets rose in Asia, amid news that President Trump agreed to an unprecedented summit with North Korea’s leader, thus easing concerns of an escalation of tensions. Nikkei and Topix closed with gains of 0.32% and 0.47% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently up 1.07% and 0.79%. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, however, so far not suggesting that the news will light a fireworks on U.S. markets. Long bond yields are mixed. 10-year JGB’s came down from earlier highs and is now down -0.2 bp on the day at 0.040%, as the BoJ remained on hold as expected. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future trading at USD 60.23 per barrel. Gold prices are heading for a third weekly drop amid easing geopolitical tensions higher.
FX Update: The yen weakened on political news, specifically Trump’s agreeing to Kim Jong Un’s request for a meeting and a declaration from North Korea that it is suspending ICBM testing, which was tonic for stock markets in Asia. The BoJ left policy settings unchanged, and left its outlook unaltered (the statement noting that the economy is “expanding moderately”), as expected. BoJ Governor Kuroda will be holding a press conference shortly, where he is likely to maintain that an exit from stimulus remains in the distance. USDJPY rallied to an eight-day high of 106.94, up over 60 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level. BoJ Governor Kuroda stuck to a dovish script at his post-meeting press conference, saying that further easing measures must be considered in the event that momentum towards achieving the 2% inflation target wanes and that there are presently no plans to exit from stimulative policy settings. He also stressed that the BoJ will “patiently continue with aggressive stimulus.” He said that stimulus could be taken away before the inflation target is seem, but weakened this verbalization by adding “in theory.” The BoJ earlier announced unchanged policy. Japan’s economy is amid its longest growth phase in decades, but inflation has remained chronically anem
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Industrial Production – January industrial output to rise 1.5% m/m rebounding from the -1.3% figure seen in December
Canadian Employment Change & Unemployment Rate – projected to show a 20.0k gain in February after the 88.0k tumble in January. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 5.9%
US Non-Farm Payrolls – February nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 205k from 200K last month.
US Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady from a 4.1% rate since October.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2018.
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FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.3 bp in early trade at 0.624%, the 2-year is down -0.2 bp at -0.590%. Peripherals are outperforming at the long end, but the picture is more mixed in the 2-year area. Eurozone stock futures are moving higher, in tandem with U.S. futures, UK100 futures are in the red, after a mixed session in Asia. Data releases remain thin on the ground and investors are looking to US inflation data for guidance on the pace of Fed tightening. In Europe, Brexit speculation ahead of the March 22-23 summit, ECB speak and the SNB’s policy review remain in focus.
FX Update:The yen back out of early-Tokyo highs and is showing an average 0.4% decline versus the dollar and euro heading into the London interbank open. USDJPY logging a high of 106.90 after posting a three-session low at 106.25. EURJPY also lifted out of a two-session low to make a two-session high of 131.77. AUDJPY and other yen crosses saw a similar price action. The dollar, meanwhile, traded with a steady-to-firmer tilt with markets eyeing today’s release of the U.S. CPI, a data series that has been having a relatively heightened influence on markets as the participants look to fine tune their Fed policy expectation. EURUSD has ebbed to the 1.2325 area, moderately lower from a 1.2345 two-session high that was seen in early Tokyo. As for the yen’s weakness, this has come despite a flagging bullish sentiment in global equity market, though in the bigger view the Japanese currency yen has been trading in a relatively narrow sideways pattern over the last week, and USDJPY is near to the midway point of the range that’s been seen over the last month. Japan’s finance minister Aso is likely to skip next week’s G20 meeting due to the alleged embroilment of the Ministry of Finance with a state land sale scandal. In data, Japan’s tertiary index contracted by 0.6 % m/m, worse than the -0.3% median forecast.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Budget Report
US CPI and Core CPI – It is set to increase by just 0.1% for both headline and core, which should keep the core y/y pace unchanged at 1.8%.
BOC Gov Poloz Speech – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks on “Today’s labor market and the future of work.” The text of his prepared speech is available 10:15 ET on Tuesday.
RBA Assist Gov Kent Speech
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2018.
[IMG]
European Fixed Income Outlook: Long yields traded mostly steady to lower as stock markets headed south. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.043%, the Chinese 10-year underperformed and yields are up 0.9 bp, but the 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.3 bp at 2.839%. A fresh shakeup in the Trump administration rekindled trade war concerns and worries about geopolitical risks and weighed on stock markets, which headed broadly south in Asia, after already retreating on Wall Street and in Europe yesterday. The Topix closed with a loss of -0.45%, the Nikkei was down -0.87% at the close, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are down -1.32% and -0.225 respectively and the ASX 200 lost -0.66%. U.S. stock futures are also heading south and oil prices are little changed at USD 60.69 per barrel. In Europe today, German Feb HICP inflation confirmed at 1.2% y/y as expected, with prices up 0.4% m/m. The breakdown confirmed that the dip from 1.4% y/y in January was mainly due to lower energy and food price inflation. This ties in with the steady core inflation reading in the preliminary Eurozone HICP rate and backs views that despite these monthly variations inflation is continuing to trend higher, especially with wage deals looking quite strong in Germany.
FX Update:: USDJPY has remained heavy, settling around 106.50 after a short-lived lift to an intraday high at 106.74 ahead of the Tokyo fixing earlier. Broader dollar softness is at play, with market narratives pointing to political uncertainty following Trump’s dual sackings of his foreign secretary, Tillerson, and an aide, John McEntee — the latter over alleged “serious financial crimes.” The yen has been trading mixed in narrow ranges versus other currencies. BoJ Governor Kuroda maintained his recent re-commitment to a dovish script, saying earlier that a withdrawal from stimulus is not being considered as the 2% inflation target remains far from being achieved. The BoJ released the minutes from the January policy meeting, though to little market impact given their rear view nature (given that the central bank releases a summary sheet a week after policy meetings, and given the timeliness of recent BoJ member testimonies and communications). In data, Japan’s core machinery orders rebound by 8.2% m/m in January after a 9.3% contraction in the month prior. The data is volatile month-to-month and tends not to carry much market-impacting potential, as proved the case today.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
ECB President Draghi Speech – Due to speak at the ECB conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability, in Frankfurt.
ECB’s Praet and Constancio Speeches – Constancio and Praet is scheduled will have further opportunity to play down the importance of the change in guidance that took out the option to lift monthly purchase levels, while keeping the possibility of a program extension in place.
US PPI and Retail Sales – PPI is forecast sinking 0.1% in February, with core seen rising 0.2%. Here though, the 12-month pace should pick up to 2.5% y/y from 2.2%. While not as important as the consumer price data, it could raise eyebrows. Retail sales are seen returning a healthy 0.3% or 0.4% ex-auto after sluggishness around the turn of the year.
Crude Oil Inventories
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are marginally higher in opening trade, European stock futures are mostly higher, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a cautiously positive session in Japan. Concerns about the risk of an escalating trade war continue to linger, but markets are taking time for a breather and assess the situation after the latest reshuffle in the U.S. administration. Investors evaluate the impact of the latest reshuffle of the U.S. administration that saw free-trader Larry Kudlow accepting the NEC directorship in a move that counterbalanced some of the latest rhetoric on tariffs. Volatility is likely to remain elevated amid growing uncertainty about the outlook for the global economy amid risks to trade. Against that background, central banks are pledging caution and gradualism and the SNB is unlikely to rock the boat today and expected to keep policy settings on hold. the European calendar is pretty quiet otherwise, with only final inflation readings from Italy and France.
FX Update: The dollar has traded mixed to far today, losing ground to the yen but moderately gaining versus most of the other main currencies, including the euro, sterling and Australian dollar. The biggest loser was the Kiwi dollar following an underwhelming GDP figure out of New Zealand, with the antipodean currency showing a decline of 0.3% heading into the London interbank open, although off its lows. USDJPY fell to a six-session low of 105.78, while EURJPY, AUDJPY, and other yen crosses, also declined, though the downside progress was crimped as Asia stock markets lifted out of intraday lows, and the principal U.S. and European equity indexes posted gains. The Nikkei closed with a fractional 0.12% gain. BoJ Governor Kuroda was again talking up prevailing monetary stimulus, arguing it is helping improve the productivity in the non-manufacturing parts of the economy, which he said is essential for Japan’s economic outlook, and that the BoJ will continue with “powerful” monetary easing. How Trump’s trade was evolves will remain a principal focus for market participants.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
SNB Monetary Policy Assessment – SNB expected to keep monetary policy settings on hold, highlight uncertainty.
US Data – Empire State – seen rising to 15.0 in March vs 13.1, while the Philly Fed index may slide to 23.0 in March from 25.8 and initial jobless claims may mean revert 5k lower to 226k for the March-10 week. Import prices are projected to gain 0.3% in February, while export pricesrise 0.3%, down from 0.8% and the NAHB housing market index is also seen rising to 73 in March from 72.
ECB’s Lautenschläger Speech
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The Eurex trading system is experiencing serious issues according to their website and quotes are missing, but French 10-year yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.814%, French and Spanish stock futures are down, in tandem with UK100 futures after a weak session in Asia. Risk appetite has taken another hit as investors eye wearily the succession of personnel changes in Washington and Trump’s tariff plans, with fears of a global trade war intensifying. Geopolitics will likely to continue to trump data today with only final Eurozone inflation data of note in the European calendar.
FX Update: The yen has maintained a firming bias amid a mixture of geopolitical news and fresh drama at the White House in the U.S.. USDJPY dipped back under 106.00, while EURJPY and other yen cross have also been trading with a heavy tone. News that Trump has removed his national security advisor, H.R. McMaster has been a worry for some on the view that it might mean Trump will become more hawkish on foreign policy. Some market narratives also pin some of the yen’s gains on news that U.S. special council Mueller has subpoenaed the Trump Organisation for business, some of which are related to Russia. This backdrop has fed a mixed path in global equity markets. Investors are additionally trying to fathom the risk of a Trumpian trade war, how extensive it might and what consequences it might have on global growth. The joint response to Russia by key NATO allies following the attempted hit on an ex Russian double agent is also in the mix. The greater risks is seen for USDJPY declining to 100.00 than climbing to 110.00. Elsewhere, EURUSD recouped above 1.2300 after dipping yesterday to a four-day low at 1.2295. AUDUSD hit a 10-day low at 0.7770 before recouping to 0.7800
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
EU Labour cost
EU CPI – February HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at just 1.2% y/y down from 1.3% y/y in January. The breakdown is likely to confirm that the dip in the headline rate was mainly due to base effects from energy and in particular food prices and that core inflation actually held steady. Even the doves at the council are now more confident that underlying inflation is picking up. Indeed, across Europe central banks are turning the focus away from headline inflation to closing output gaps, and if uncertainty about global developments prevents companies from investing into expanding production capacity the ECB will remain on course to take out stimulus even if growth slows down.
US Industian Production, Housing Starts & Consumer Sentiment – The back end of the week winds down with February housing starts forecast to shrink 5% to a 1.29 mln pace from 1.326 mln in January. Industrial production should rise 0.3% in February from -0.1%, while capacity use increases to 77.6% from 77.5%. Preliminary Michigan sentiment may top 99.5 for March from 99.7 previously.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2018.[/B]
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[B]Main Macro Events This Week[/B]
It’s been a tense and contentious March for the markets, as economic and political uncertainties play tug-o-war with prices. Signs of rising global growth, but still tame inflation, are helping underpin confidence, though worries over U.S. tariffs and fears of a deleterious trade war, along with concerns over a more hawkish FOMC stance, have left equities heavy on the month, while longer dated bond yields are mostly lower.
United States: U.S. markets will focus on the FOMC meeting (Tuesday, Wednesday), Chairman Powell’s debut. There shouldn’t be any surprise with respect to the rate decision. A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. Meanwhile, the potential for another government shutdown looms on Friday as the House and Senate debate a spending bill. Fedspeak will mostly be crowded out by the FOMC meeting and the accompanying blackout period.
Data is on the thin side. Housing and manufacturing reports dominate the light calendar. February existing home sales (Wednesday) are expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.480 mln pace, recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln. Sales were as high as 5.720 mln in November, the highest in a decade. Risk is to the downside, however, giving lean inventories and rising mortgage rates. New home sales (Friday) are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.610 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. The January FHFA home price index is on tap (Thursday). Durable goods orders (Friday) for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop. Other data this week includes the Q4 current account (Wednesday), the Markit manufacturing and services PMIs (Thursday), and February leading indicators (Thursday).
Canada: the week brings the final inputs to the January GDP projection and an appearance by a BoC official. January wholesale trade (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.1% after the 0.5% decline in December. January retail sales (Friday) are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge. The CPI (Friday) is expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins speaks (Thursday) at the Rotman School of Management in Toronto.
Europe: it’s a busy and important week for the Eurozone with an almost full round of confidence numbers taking center stage on the data front, while the European Council on March 22/23 is expected to set out the EU’s guidelines for the future relationship with the U.K., but also address Trump’s tariff plans. Confidence readings are expected to come down further, but will still remain at high levels, and are unlikely to deter the ECB from moving slowly but steadily toward the exit from its still very accommodative stance. Geopolitical risks could slow an already cautious move further, and on that front, the EU leader summit at the end of the week will be watched very carefully as the EU is expected to agree on draft guidelines for Brexit negotiations and both sides are hoped to finalize a transition agreement, while Trump’s tariffs plans are also on the agenda.
The highlights of the data calendar, meanwhile, are ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings, which expected to correct further from recent highs. German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday) is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of the bunch. The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo (Thursday) is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number. Indeed, with PMIs surveys showing for a while now that companies are running into capacity constraints, a slowdown in growth momentum is inevitable at some point, but does not necessarily mean that the ECB has to keep pumping cash into the economy.
UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers for its March meeting (announcing Thursday). It is likely to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. Data this week includes February inflation data (Tuesday), monthly labor market figures (Wednesday), monthly government borrowing, the March CBI industrial trends survey (Wednesday) and official retail sales for February (Thursday).
Japan: The markets will be on holiday Wednesday for Vernal Equinox Day. The January all industry index (Thursday) should fall 1.5% m/m from the previous 0.5% increase, breaking a string of three monthly gains. A lot of the focus will be on the National February CPI numbers (Friday). CPI is penciled in at an unchanged 1.4% y/y pace overall, while the core should rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.9%.
Australia: the minutes to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March meeting are due (Tuesday). The February employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 15.0k gain after the 16.0k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.5%. The housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to contract 0.7% in Q4 (q/q, sa) after the 0.2% dip in Q3. RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock appears in a panel at the ASIC Annual Forum 2018 in Sydney.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
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[B]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The global stock market sell off that was led by tech stocks started to ease in Asia, although, Nikkei and Topix still closed with losses of -0.47% and -0.21% respectively and the ASX was down -0.39% at the close. Markets started to pare losses though in the later part of the session and Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up -0.04% and 0.02%. Long yields declined across Asia, but are mostly up from earlier lows and while the 10 year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.032%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.863%. U.s. stock futures are also up from lows and Dow Jones mini and S&P mini are moving higher in tandem with the FTSE 100 future. Risks of growing protectionism and the Fed meeting continue to hang over markets, although it seems after the week session yesterday investors are taking a breather. Oil prices are also higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 62.57 per barrel. Fed and BoE meetings continue to hang over markets, but the calendar is also picking up today, with German ZEW investor confidence and U.K. inflation numbers both able to move markets.
FX Update: The yen has traded softer so far today. USD-JPY has lifted to a three-session high of 106.86, and EUR-JPY and other yen crosses have similarly lifted. Good yen selling was seen at the Tokyo fix (today is a “gotobi” day, date multiple of 5, which is netted out Japanese importers’ demand for foreign currencies), and the currency subsequently maintained a modest downside ebb. Asian stock markets have been mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei closing 0.6% for the worse, but Chinese indexes and U.S. equity futures managing gains. On the trade war front Chinese premier, Li, pledged that it will lower import tariffs and better protect intellectual property rights, and also noted that the WTO has already ruled against tariffs directed at itself. Japan’s trade minister said that there was a “high possibility” that Japan would be exempted from the U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium. Bloomberg reported a Japanese MoF official complaining that recent yen movements have been too volatile and trading too strongly. Japanese data today included the March Tankan business survey, which fell 1.0% m/m for large manufacturers while rising 2.0% for services.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK CPI – headline CPI expected to ebb to 2.8% y/y from 3.0% , and core CPI to also decline by 0.2 of a percentage point, to 2.5%. A steadying in the pound’s trade-weighted value on the year-on-year comparison should have imparted an abatement in sterling-induced price pressures.
German ZEW – is the most forward looking, but also least reliable of Eurozone confidence indicators. And with stock market sentiment remaining shaky amid concerns of a global trade war, a dip to 13.0 from 17.8 is expected.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session. Japan was closed for a holiday, which meant thinner trade, but elsewhere energy related stocks helped markets to recover from the slump in tech stocks that hit global markets at the beginning of the week. Oil prices lifted to a high of USD 63.85 overnight, on news that the OPEC led alliance of oil producers accelerated plans to curb the worldwide supply glut. The ASX closed with a gain of 0.23% and the Hang Seng is up 0.61%, after a positive close on Wall Street, although, U.S. futures are struggling to move higher as the focus shifts to the Fed announcement and markets remain split on whether the Fed will lift its rate hike schedule for this year. The holiday in Japan meant Treasuries were not traded overnight and elsewhere long yields were mixed across Asia, with slightly lower 10-year rates in China and Australia, while New Zealand’s 10-year moved higher.
FX Update: The dollar majors have plied narrow ranges to far today. EURUSD lifted to the north of 1.2250 after logging a three-week low yesterday at 1.2239, which capped a recent down move driven by a widening in the U.S. Treasury over Bund yield spread. USDJPY has settled to a consolidation with a modest downward drift after a two-day run higher. The pair drifted back under 106.50 after yesterday printing a one-week high at 106.60. Japanese markets were closed today for a public holiday in Japan, exacerbating thin market conditions with many market participants sitting on their hands into the Fed policy announcement and SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) today. Market’s median expectation are forecasting a 25 bp rate hike, to boost the funds band to 1.50% to 1.75%. It is widely expected that the Committee will leave the dot plot medians at 3 hikes this year and next, though policymakers are likely to upgrade their forecasts on growth and lower their view on the unemployment rate. USDCAD dipped to a four-session low of 1.3010 on news of progress on the NAFTA front, with the U.S. dropping its contentious auto-content proposal.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Labour Market Data- Labor data expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4%, and with average earnings in the three-months to January to rise by 2.6% y/y
Existing Home Sales – expected to rebound 1.9% to a 5.415 mln pace , recovering somewhat from the 3.2% January drop to 5.380 mln and December’s 2.8% decline to 5.560 mln.
FOMC Statement and Funds Rate decision – A 25 bp tightening in the funds rate band to 1.50% to 1.75% is as sure a bet as there can be. But there’s considerable uncertainty over the trajectory of rate hikes and whether the FOMC will opt to maintain the outlook for 3 tightenings this year, or revise up to 4.
FOMC Press Conference
RBNZ Rate Statement – RBNZ expected to hold the policy rate steady at 1.75% and maintain that monetary policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.5 bp at 0.572% in opening trade, following Treasury yields, which have lost a further -2.2 bp during the Asian session after already dipping in the wake of yesterday’s Fed announcement, with Powell’s lack of urgency on rates helping to counterbalance the steeper rate hike trajectory in the dot plots further out. European stock market futures are heading south, U.S. stock futures are now also in the red, as tariff threats and concern of an escalating trade war hang over markets as central banks advance towards less expansionary policies. The BoE is expected to keep policy settings unchanged today, but the guidance should keep a May rate hike in play. Data releases are expected to be bond friendly, with EMU PMIs and the German Ifo seen correcting further. The ECB’s economic bulletin and Eurozone current account data are also on the agenda.
FX Update: The dollar has come under pressure since the Fed’s policy announcement, with the central bank having been perceived as sticking to a gradualist approach to tightening following an expected 25 bp hike, even though growth forecasts were upwardly revised and the rate path steepened. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) extended to a fresh two-week low in pre-European trading in Asia, posting a low of 89.45. EURUSD rallied into eight-day high terrain above 1.2360, and USD-JPY logged a two-week low at 105.58. The Australian dollar’s gains versus its U.S. counterpart were constrained by a miss in Australian jobs data, which showed employment rising by 17.5k, below the median forecast for a 20.0k gain. AUDUSD pulled back under 0.7750 after earlier logging a six-day high at 0.7785.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
* Eurozone PMI/Ifo Preview – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is seen slipping back to 58.2 from 58.6 and the services reading to 56.0 from 56.2, which should leave the composite at 56.9, down from 57.1 in February, but still pointing to a healthy pace of expansion across both sectors. Similarly, the German Ifo is expected to correct to 114.9 in from 115.4, but taking a longer perspective that would still be a strong number.
* UK Retail Sales – 0.3% m/m rise is anticipated after the 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior, though there is downside rise given snow-bound weather conditions during the month.
* BoE – After the excitement of the Fed meeting, the BoE announcement could well prove to be a non-event for markets following the February meeting and quarterly Inflation Report update, with the repo rate widely expected to be left unchanged at 0.50%, and with QE totals also more than likely to remained unaltered. February’s guidance, which has prepped markets for a possible hike in May (market odds having been running at about 80% for a 25 bp hike), is also likely to remain in play.
* US Jobless Claims – expected to fall 3k to 225k from 226k in the week-ended March 10.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund futures continue to rally in opening trade, the 10-year yield is down -1.0 bp at 0.515%, amid a wider tumble in global yields as the stock market sell off intensifies. Curves flatten as the long end outperforms and investors see global central banks delaying the withdrawal of stimulus as the escalating trade war is threatening world growth. The EU got a temporary exemption from Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium, but Japan didn’t and China quickly retaliated with its own tariff plans for imports from the U.S. Asian stock markets posted 2-4.5% losses, European stock futures are also heading south in opening trade. The local data calendar is pretty empty today, leaving the focus on the EU summit, which was also set to discuss Trump’s tariff plans, but the main focus today is on the expected signing off on a U.K. transition deal and the guidelines for the EU’s negotiating position on a future trade deal with the U.K. Amid the threat of a global trade war, the pressure to at least minimise the disruption to trade across Europe is intensifying.
FX Update: Japan’s core CPI improved to a 1.0% y/y pace in February from the 0.9% rate of annual increase in January. Total CPI climbed to a 1.5% y/y clip from 1.4% in January. The core rate is the fastest pace since the 2.2% y/y gain in March of 2015, which gave way to -0.5% rates of decline from July to September of 2016. The BoJ’s target is a 2% core rate, so they are now half way there. However, the beating drums of global trade war threaten Japan’s export oriented growth engine, while the appreciating yen is a headwind to exports and inflation. The yen is holding just below 105.00 — it was as high as 114.09 in early November.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
* US Durable Goods & New Home Sales – New home sales are estimated increasing 2.9% to 0.620 mln in February, after dropping 7.8% to 0.593 mln. Risk is also to the downside here given weak secondary market measures. Durable goods orders for February are projected bouncing 1.5%, unwinding some of the 3.6% January drop.
* CAD Retail Sales – January retail sales are seen rebounding 1.0% in January after the 0.8% drop in December. The ex-autos retail sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.8% after a 1.8% plunge.
* CAD CPI – expected to grow 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.7% jump in January. A 1.8% y/y growth pace is projected for the CPI during February following the 1.7% y/y growth rate in January.
Support and Resistance levels
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is up 1.0 bp at 0.528% in early trade, vs a 1.5 bp gain in 10-year JGB yields. Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp, but have also lifted from the lows seen during the Asian session, as stock markets bounced back in Asia. Peripheral bonds are outperforming as risk appetite improves and European stock futures are also rallying. The GER30 future is up more than 1.8% as risk appetite strengthens amid hopes that U.S. posturing on tariffs is primarily a tool to gain trade concessions and won’t trigger and all out trade war. Still, volatility is likely to remain high and sentiment fragile which is underpinning volatility on markets. The data calendar picks up today. Released at the start of the session German import price inflation came in weaker than expected. Spanish HICP numbers will also be watched closely and Eurozone ESI economic sentiment is expected to dip again.
FX Update: The yen posted fresh lows today, losing ground for a second straight day amid a backdrop of reviving risk appetite and associated gains in global stock markets. USDJPY clocked a three-session high of 105.75 in Tokyo, about a 35 pip gain on the New York closing levels, putting in some further distance from the 16-month low seen on Friday at 104.64. EURJPY and other yen crosses have seen a similar price action. There was no data or other news of market-moving note today. A belief in market narratives that Trump’s protectionism push will be more bluff than buster, with initial grandiose threats giving way to watering down, exemptions and negotiation, have been underpinning stock markets this week, and seeing the yen’s safe haven premium unwind. Elsewhere, the dollar has largely consolidated near lows posted yesterday against the euro and many other currencies. EURUSD has been settled near 1.2450 after yesterday seeing a six-week high at 1.2461. Cable has seen a similar action. AUDUSD and NZDUSD managed fresh highs before backing off. USDCAD edged out a two-session low at 1.2828.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone ESI – is expected to fall back to 113.4 from 114.1, thus backing the ECB’s cautious stance on the phasing out of QE. Bundesbank President Weidmann may be pushing for a firm commitment to the end of net asset purchases, but Draghi and Praet seem less in a hurry and with markets still jittery officials could well wait until July before clarifying the future of QE beyond September.
CB Consumer Confidence – is expected to hold up near 130.40 in March from 130.8 in February.
Support and Resistance level
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year yields are down in opening trade, in tandem with global trends, as long bonds are underpinned by a fresh bout of risk aversion and a sell off in stocks. Fresh selling of tech stocks sparked a sharp decline on Wall Street yesterday, that was followed by a broad correction in Asia and European stock futures are heading south in tandem with U.S. futures. The GER30 future lost more than -0.9% in opening trade. The 10-year Bund yield has dipped back below the 0.5% mark, the 10-year Treasury yield consolidated below 2.8% during the Asian session after declining sharply during U.S. hours, the 10-year JGB yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.027%. Month and quarter end cash flows, redemptions and sizeable index extensions in Europe will continue to underpin peripherals in particular and could help to keep Eurozone spreads narrow despite the flare up in risk aversion. Meanwhile German GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly improved. Still to come, the U.K. has the CBI distributive trade survey as well as BoE Agent reports of business conditions and Italian orders and sales numbers for the industrial sector.
FX Update: USDJPY and yen crosses have settled lower versus yesterday’s highs, with the Japanese currency finding renewed safe haven demand as Wall Street, specifically the tech-sector, led a fresh global stock market wobble. News that the Trump trade team may be planning to use emergency laws via CFIUS to clamp down on China investment into the U.S. also set a negative tone. Investors will remain focused on developments in the tech sector and on Trump’s protectionist policies, which in turn will have a bearing on the yen. The visit to Beijing by North Korea’s Kim has been greeted as a positive in terms of further allaying geopolitical tensions on the Korean peninsular, though evidently hasn’t been sufficient tonic to quell the risk-off vibe in markets. BoJ’s Kuroda repeated, for the umpteenth time, that the central bank will persist with “powerful” monetary stimulus, while Japanese PM Abe said that a delay in the planned sales tax hike would be considered in the scenario of a financial shock. The Nikkei 225 equity index finished 2% for the worse. USDJPY, which has been trending lower since early January, and technically remains in this downtrend, has resistance at 105.94-95.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
US Final GDP & Good Trade Balance – MBA mortgage applicationsis due today as well, followed by the advanced trade in goods deficit, seen narrowing to -$72.5 bln from -$75.3 bln. The third report on Q4 GDP may rise to 2.7% vs 2.5%.
Crude Oil Inventories –
Support and Resistance level
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.