Documenting my thoughts, problems and success.

stubbtoe

Hey BO.net forum, my name is David and I'm a university student studying marketing.

You may have seen me post here recently, I am the epitome of a newbie!

I thought id share this since it has helped me in the past when I played poker, speaking your mind and getting various points of view on your actions/decisions/thoughts have proved so useful. Hence my spamming of the forum trying to get information. Truly grateful I've found this place.

Anyway I am using a demo account at the moment, and I hope to use this to ground fundamentals relatively cheap when starting out a new trade. I was brought into binary options through a potential scam that Okane managed to make me aware of before I made any decisions. Who isn't scamming it seems?

I will post probably 1/2 currency pairs and analyse each day on different time frames and post my analysis, it will be very patchy and I will not consider all factors so please forgive some shoddy analysis on charts etc. I need all the critics I can get!

I will place trades on the analysis each morning and then justify or reason why it went wrong or ended ITM. I think posting ITM options is even more important as the reasoning behind your decision may be hidden under result bias.

If you would like to share your progress or trades or just discuss please comment, and wish me luck!

Stubbtoe

stubbtoe

Ok first post, studying EURJPY, seems volatile and I can seem to find a few more obvious support resistance compared to USD currency pairs.

I have already found conflicting information which I never knew how to process. On Weekly time frame you will see both MAs indicating a downward trend, with the last chunk coming above, possibly a breakout.

However I went into daily and made support resistance bars, with an example shown in picture!

When I move to h4, the MAs now say it is in an uptrend, which I agree on compared to the chart, and I can see that's because of that attempt to break the MAs, but given the whole picture id say this is a trial at the moment. God knows how I would trade this with a 15 minute strategy as that chart looks so different. Hope you guys can help as this is where I get stuck.

FWIW I would probably put a call option looking at the 5 minute chart as it seems to be on a support line whilst in a short term uptrend. However I think the short term uptrend is purely a trial and will meet resistance shown in my weekly chart.

Thanks for any feedback!

stubbtoe

Also to be noted I would call because 1H to 5 min stochastic is oversold and the short term trend is bullish, however I still am conflicted with timeframe difference in trends and analysis.

Okane

Ok I promised I would give some feedback, so I hope you are ready

I wrote on the charts (the explanations). This is an example of the things/techniques I teach during private lessons.

So here is a taste - analysis from weekly charts down to M5 (skipped Monthly, M30 and M15 this time)!

From left, Weekly, daily, H4, H1 and M5. (see on the chart frame, the TF is displayed there just FYI)

Okane

Just woke up and checked the chart! As you can see our analysis was pretty accurate. I didn't mention that there could be a gap (usually on Monday's opening prices there is a gap before price (often) gets right back to where it was and continues what it was doing before - which is exactly what happened.

So a post-forecast analysis:
Price did break our channel and as I mentioned it did go for our second target, the line from hourly charts.
Then it broke that and again, as we concluded, it would be a sign of bullish continuation if it did. As you can see now, it
did indeed move up! Hope now you see how multi-timeframe analysis can help you pick trades. This time we both slept through those
signals but you get the point

stubbtoe

Ok so today I took a couple trades, both ITM (luckily). First one is GBPUSD, the 5 min -> H4 charts showed uptrend, but there was overall a downtrend

I had looked at weekly daily and 4H and just did some SR lines, looked at 5 min chart and saw that it had repeatedly tested this area and saw sellers were in the market
I'm not sure whether i was on the red or the dojo candle, but my question is, am I wrong to trade against the 4 hour and below trend?

I didn't even check the stochastic or RSI, it was a default template I made before trying to learn price action, this was literally me seeing the previous 10 hours trend and then making a decision based on it being a ranging market (seemed to me in this TF) and made a put option on the SR line.

http://prnt.sc/dfppf5

Second trade was far more dubious and was ITM but looking back I shouldn't have taken it. I took it at the end of the engulfing candle near my short term trendlines. My thinking here was that If it touched the flatter trendline it would use it as support and retrace back up to the steeper line. Also it being a call option in a bullish move seemed appealing at first. However after talking through it, the engulfing candle is something of bearish power and the candle had not even touched my resistance trendline. I was kinda hasty as this was my first trade after being given advice.

http://prnt.sc/dfl22a

That's all for today. Will be back tomorrow after learning some more and studying my two currencies a little more.

stubbtoe

Two morning trades, both ITM, although I think the EURJPY expiry time was a mistake, definitely something to look out for!

http://prntscr.com/dfynjz

http://prntscr.com/dfyp7l

Okane

Got you some new comments:

http://prntscr.com/dg1y5a

stubbtoe

Thank you okane, 3 more for today and I'm finished! 5/5 ITM, trading IS EASY.... Said no consistent trader ever haha!

last one today : http://prntscr.com/dg2aih

Two from earlier: http://prntscr.com/dg1ynp http://prntscr.com/dg1uft

stubbtoe

Just lost 3 in a row silly trades, very embarrassing given ive been trying very hard today. Will make sure to not be this inadequate when trading again.

http://prntscr.com/dg4429

Okane

Well, you clearly jumped in after a SUPPORT just got broken and did so twice, in a bearish market too.
But hey, those losses taught you something and they were only demo.

Closingbell

stubbtoe said:

Just lost 3 in a row silly trades, very embarrassing given ive been trying very hard today. Will make sure to not be this inadequate when trading again.

http://prntscr.com/dg4429

Greed just kicked in I guess

It was a clear short after the support got broken. It looks like you completely ignored the trend and what goes on in Italy. Happends but try not to commit the same mistake again.

stubbtoe

Closingbell said:

stubbtoe said:

Just lost 3 in a row silly trades, very embarrassing given ive been trying very hard today. Will make sure to not be this inadequate when trading again.

http://prntscr.com/dg4429

Greed just kicked in I guess

It was a clear short after the support got broken. It looks like you completely ignored the trend and what goes on in Italy. Happends but try not to commit the same mistake again.

Agree here, maybe a sense of invincibility too misshaped my reasoning skills. I will learn to take each trade by its own and not care about results. Earning money should be a product of good trading. I will make good decisions and watch results come after. Also youre right when you say I didn't consider big news, regardless though, the trend breaking support and the candlesticks showing no signs of the trend changing, no hammers or even a dojo to consider that. Shameful but I will grind these mistakes out early and be consistent!

Thanks for feedback guys

stubbtoe

10 min trade only 1 today, struggling to make anything of the markets, luckily this one made sense at the time and I went for it. ITM.

http://prntscr.com/dgh1un

stubbtoe

1 more ITM today. Will study and get back at it tomorrow.

http://prntscr.com/dgjgbo

http://prntscr.com/dgjeei

stubbtoe

No winning trades today, cant seem to find anything I can heavily rely on. Have studied instead! Only using one market which is EURUSD and I think I will study this only until I learn price action and become better at charting.

Also tried turbo time frames, and I get a little carried away when I lose one trade. Sometimes they go what I think, and when they don't, I try it again just in case it does. Very bad, think ill stay away from 1m expiries. 15 minute minimum expiry I think for now until I really improve.

Closingbell

stubbtoe said:

No winning trades today, cant seem to find anything I can heavily rely on. Have studied instead! Only using one market which is EURUSD and I think I will study this only until I learn price action and become better at charting.

Also tried turbo time frames, and I get a little carried away when I lose one trade. Sometimes they go what I think, and when they don't, I try it again just in case it does. Very bad, think ill stay away from 1m expiries. 15 minute minimum expiry I think for now until I really improve.

You'll get there mate. There was a big trade opportunity today at 1.085 (short). I managed to short it with 5 lots

stubbtoe

Thanks Closing Bell, I'm hoping I will!

Some analysis here just using PA and a little Fib, pretty sure I did it correctly, but please tell me I'm wrong and show me what I did wrong so I can correct it!

GBPUSD analysis through timeframes and no trading done these past few days, just studying.

http://prnt.sc/dhmty7
http://prntscr.com/dhmvqh
http://prntscr.com/dhmx99
http://prntscr.com/dhnc7c

stubbtoe

All in all, I'm expecting price to rise to my Dark blue short term trend line, resist and test my light blue SR line again, and go from there. However if the chart breaks my Dark blue line, ill be focussing first on my Green SR line and my upper channel line, where I would assume a good amount of resistance will be met. If this also breaks, then I will reassess the situation haha!

Good Luck all you traders

Gihon

Okane said:

Ok I promised I would give some feedback, so I hope you are ready

I wrote on the charts (the explanations). This is an example of the things/techniques I teach during private lessons.

So here is a taste - analysis from weekly charts down to M5 (skipped Monthly, M30 and M15 this time)!

From left, Weekly, daily, H4, H1 and M5. (see on the chart frame, the TF is displayed there just FYI)

Hello Guys, pls help. I tried to see these posted images and could not. Saved it, opened it but the quality is so low can't read the words.
Is there a way you could help me have it in better, readable quality?

(Great topic and great job from you, thank you very much. Hope there will be something useful I can add sometimes...)

Okane

Gihon said:

Okane said:

Ok I promised I would give some feedback, so I hope you are ready

I wrote on the charts (the explanations). This is an example of the things/techniques I teach during private lessons.

So here is a taste - analysis from weekly charts down to M5 (skipped Monthly, M30 and M15 this time)!

From left, Weekly, daily, H4, H1 and M5. (see on the chart frame, the TF is displayed there just FYI)

Hello Guys, pls help. I tried to see these posted images and could not. Saved it, opened it but the quality is so low can't read the words.
Is there a way you could help me have it in better, readable quality?

(Great topic and great job from you, thank you very much. Hope there will be something useful I can add sometimes...)

Which images? You need to click the ones I shared and it will open large in a new window easy to view!