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News (Economic Calendar) and B.Options Chart?

yourfriendyourfriend Posts: 7
edited April 2017 in General
Hi,

After failing all the time with existing indicators, I gave up trying a luck and fail and lose 100% of investment into opened position all the time. All my trades are loses. The strategies in binary options trading seem to be completely different than in other financial instruments such as forex or stocks. Since I don't want to test the luck anymore and since binary options are not lottery game where no rules apply but 100% random luck, I figured out addiitonal strategy involving economic calendar. However in order to try the strategy on demo account, I would need information from you, yes you who are reading this message.

Question: What is the best possible way to recognize when exactly has consequence of released (publically released online = result) news start to effect on the actual chart? Is timeframe important in seeing when report of news (expected news as known as ''Forecast Value'' VS. result of completed news as known as ''Actual Value'') has ''kicked in'' on the actual chart? Basically I am asking how to see, as soon as possible, when news started to effect on chart? I know I might be looking major changes of trend (explosion of volatility) but I am looking for more exact and accurate answer.

I was thinking about Bollinger Bands breakout strategy saying ''when breakout happens, news started to effect on chart'' but thats not good. I don't like indicators at all. Tried all of them and its like a lottery - hoping for pure luck.

The ''economic calendar'' strategy won't bring me much earnings at all but I expect that possibility of winning the trade comparing to how poor I am currently would increase for at least 90%.

The reason why I think this economic calendar strategy won't bring much profit is because High Impact news are very rare, very very rare, but success rate (loses vs. wins) should be thousands of times better.

Thank you in advance.

Comments

  • yourfriendyourfriend Posts: 7
    why is everyone ignoring me?
  • OkaneOkane Posts: 1,282 admin
    Hey sorry. Must have missed this post.

    You should not speculate on news outcome. The forecast is just what it is, a forecast and the actual number could be less or more than expected but it also depends on HOW MUCH it is bigger or smaller than the forecasted number.

    So just because the calendar says "if actual > forecast it's good for currency" it doesn't mean price is gonna go a certain direction. It could still do the opposite.
    1. One reason is that sometimes the news hype will act on the market BEFORE the release. Many institutions manage to get the news release earlier. Remember we are using free and delayed services online.
    2. Another reason is what I said before, the difference in numbers matter too.
    So what you should do is to study the pattern of multiple earlier outcomes on that certain news event.

    What I prefer is to just rely on my own price action analysis and don't just speculate on the numbers only.
    Normally, I prefer not to trade the news itself and let it play out. You will see many examples where price has jumped up by lots of pips but the next candle dropped by equally the same amount of pips or even more...
    So again, as I said, unless it's a very clear difference in number or events which the outcomes are pretty obvious then don't speculate on what you see on the calendar. Again, watch the previous data on your calendar, then watch the charts to find a pattern. Trading is much about patterns and history!
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