AUD JPY The AUD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 75.703.
1) Pair in a tight range. 2) Pair forms a Support @ 77.50. 3) keep in mind that AUD announces time rate Cut in 2019 and total 4 times till 2020. 4) So it makes no sense to waiting for resistance to be broker as we know JPY is safe heaven in this RISK Aversion state.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 75.517, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 75.330. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.919, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 76.134. AUD JPY Previous Day range was 4020 and Current Day Range is 2230.
Economic Events
1) RBNZ Financial Stability Report (It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future). 2) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Announcement. 3) GBP/USD: UK’s political uncertainty favors bears targeting 1.2600.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit our YouTube Channel.
Overview of Gold – Bearish Sentiment Seen in This Week
The XAU traded lower against the USD and closed at 1280.34.
What do we have in the shiny material? 1) Bearish ABCD Pattern. 2) "C" @ 50% Retracement. 3) "C" @ Monthly Pivot. 4) "C" @ the Value Area Low of - 2 Week. 5) "C" forms a Double Top in it - self, followed by 61.8% retracement. 6) Forms a support trendline from D1 Pivot Candles.
Scenarios: 1. Bulls need to break above Month Pivot. 2. Bears need to break below the D1 support trend line.
According to the Analysis, The XAU/USD pair is expected to find support at 1277.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1275.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1284.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1288.16.
XAU USD Previous Day range was 6.48 and Current Day Range is 31100.
Technical Overview of the Commodities Gold and Silver
Overview of Gold 1) It is expected, that the price for gold could continue to decline. A potential downside target is the support level at 1,273 & Stalls @ the monthly pivot. 2) As it has formed a Large Bullish High volume Candle, It represents that the aggressive news buying is over and if the Highs r not broken then we may see it to decline again. 3) It’s making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, Representing a declining position. 4) It’s in a formation of Gartley Pattern. 5) The D1 Price and Change in Candle Chart below For May 2019. We can see whenever the price and change in candle r in close proximity with each other they repell, triggering a change in trend.
Overview of Silver 1) It is expected, that the price for silver could continue to decline. 2) From the past 10 weeks, Silver is declining and making a series of Lower Lows and Higher Lows. 3) Now the Metal made a High Volume Candle. 4) At the Weekly Pivot. 5) Below the Last week Pivot. 6) At the previous and current Value Area High. 7) Test of 20 EMA from Daily 1 Chart. 8) A break below close below candle may trigger a selling bias again. 9) With Strong support @ SUP1 Week 1 = 14.38. 10) With Strong Support @ SUP2 Month 1 =14.36.
Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and AUD/CHF Currency Pair
AUD CAD
The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9174.
1-After making a down move of 406 pips, the pair begin ascending. 2 - It’s above the 60/80 ema. 3 - Its above the weekly and monthly Pivot. 4 - It formed a Double Top Pattern, A breakout above the 127 Extension may lead the pair to covet the space made by 406 Pip down Move. 5 - If we have a look at the Futures data then we may see that the slope of AUD is towards UP side and CAD is towards Down.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.93363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94012, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.94282. AUD CAD Previous Day range was 64.9 and Current Day Range is 30.3.
AUD CHF
The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.6941.
1 - The Pair formed a double top. 2 - It could not breach the Up extension off 127 hence it confirms a double top. 3 - The 60/80 ema is facing towards down. 4 - Fundamentally as we know market is in Risk Off Scenario so we can gain help from the strength of Safe Heaven CHF to support this trade. 5 - A space with many Open orders left to cover while going towards the down side remaining. 6 - Pair is below the Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly and weekly forming a Proper Sync formation of trend.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.69279, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69151. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69841. AUD CHF Previous Day range was 34.5 and Current Day Range is 37.1.
Weekly Briefing
On Sunday, the Chinese government published a paper in which it was announced that China will not back off in the US-China trade war despite recent tariffs. The Chinese securities and markets regulators announced that the impact of trade wars on financial markets can be controlled. This may Strengthen The CNY because a few days earlier the officials said that those who short the CNY will face many Losses.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority stated on Sunday steady slowdown of world economy growth could negatively affect oil market and, as a result, the country's economy temps of growth. It signals that when there will be instability then Who WILL BUY OIL? The Supply may exceed Demand.
The J.P. Morgan analytics department stated on Saturday that escalating trade tensions with China and other countries could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates two more times in 2019- High interest Rate = Strength of the Economy
A fundamental surge has occurred. Due to another Trump tariff announcement the USD dropped like a brick. As a result of that commodity prices have jumped. Gold touched the 1,300.00 level on Friday.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of USD/JPY and NZD/CAD Currency Pair
USD JPY
The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.055.
The pair formed an AB= CD pattern. It’s below Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivot. NO Price Action Signal. It broke the Pivot support trend line. But Fundamentally as we know that Safe Heaven is in demand and USD has announced a rate cut so we can assume to sell on the rallies. As we can see the VPOC level 108.22 is a good Value area to go short. This may be a purely fundamental trade if shorts take over the market.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 107.809, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.564. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.690. USD JPY Previous Day range was 5630 and Current Day Range is 3320.
NZD CAD
The NZD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 0.8864.
The main trend heads towards North. Pivot support trendline formed. Price successfully trading above the current and previous weekly pivot level. Price breached towards north the - 3 week Pivots. A Buy on the dips will be preferable. For now NZD is the strongest and USD and CAD are Weakest.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.87977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89111. NZD CAD Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 30.6.
Morning Briefing
The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon," given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation.
Hedge funds stepped up their negative bets on sterling.
While sterling edged further off five-month lows on Monday, rising 0.15% to $1.2645, short positions are slowly building up in the background, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors on the outlook for the British economy.
Short positions are at their highest level since March 17.
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday to a new record low of 1.25%. We expect a follow-up cut in August, with the risk of additional stimulus by early 2020.
ING discusses EUR/USD: We are still expecting a downside breakout below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115 in the coming weeks. This will trigger a serious Sell signal EUR/USD Bulls May Retreat If ECB Tilts Dovish On Thursday.
Squawk: Prefer to sell USD/JPY on rallies, while maintains a long NZD/CAD as its trade of this week targeting a move towards 0.8950.
Overview of Gold
From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that a reversal south could occur in the nearest future. In this case, the rate has to surpass the 1,309.31 level. If the given support level holds, it is likely, that gold could trade sideways between it and the upper channel line. It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,333.68 due to the resistance of the Q1 R1. Gold is above the yearly and Quarterly Pivots. Better to wait for the Metal to form a Double Top and Fill the space it made. Technically if we look at the Futures Data then we see that the data is making a formation of Double Top. If we break the neck line then we may have a down movement. On the other hand we can see downwards slope in the USD Futures a crossover may strengthen USD.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
The NZD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.8849.
Very Interesting pair for now. Main trend aka 60/80 Ema is towards south. The pair made a Pivot low candle support trend line. It formed a Mb/Ib. It’s above weekly Pivot and has formed a CUP Pattern. A break above/below 127 extension may form a breakout. Remember yesterday it was announced to stay long on NZDCAD. Keep in mind that NZD is the most Interest paying nation for now. The rate of change in Currency strength meter shows that NZD is the most strongest for now.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88361, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88235. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88672, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88857. NZD CAD Previous Day range was 31.1 and Current Day Range is 37.8.
Morning Briefing
USD: The U.S. dollar was modestly lower on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell alluded to the possibility of an interest rate cut in the face of economic risks, including the global trade war. EURGBP: Weakening of domestic data in UK combined with euro spread compression, the EUR/GBP could move towards 0.90. Believe tactical EUR/SEK short positions remain attract.. Also maintain our CAD/NOK short and EUR/GBP long exposure. Short USD/JPY than long EUR/USD. Short EUR/JPY still works. There’s a bit more AUD short-covering to come. AUD/USD Traders A Green Light To Sell.
News of the Day!
AUD GDP to be announced today. As we can see in the history we have a decline situation. Due to Weaker retail sales, weaker employment and ewages data, so it’s expected to have a weaker GDP for now. To have a better GDP, The AUD must have readings above 0.40%.
The EUR traded higher against the GBP and closed at 0.8841.
Overall the market may be in a range because of NFP scheduled for Friday. The pair stalls at the weekly Pivot. It has a major resistance at 0.9000 Level (Distribution level). We can expect a selling pressure if the pair breaks the VPOC of current month (in confluence with the - 3 week Value area high). We may target the ADR 5 day low as Take Profit zone.
No more big movements expected because of the NFP news scheduled for Friday According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88169. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88657, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88899. EUR GBP Previous Day range was 36.5 and Current Day Range is 12.6.
Morning Briefing
ADP National Employment Report states that U.S. private employers added 27K jobs in May, This reading is well below the forecast, This gain is the most Smallest gain in the Past 9 years Federal Reserve Chairman stated that FED considers to cut rates and soon. Key Points in the above statements are: 1-ADP report says that the added jobs are less than expected and is the lowest increase in 9 years(This can be a negative news for USD). 2- FED considers to cut rates soon is a clear signal for weakness in the $$$. So fundamentally staying Short on the $ may be more attractive than Long.
ECB will confirm economic risks remains to the downside and anticipate that ECB President Draghi will present a dovish tone to the monetary policy outlook; it means that we may have a Weaker EUR and its most strong competitor is JPY, so technically staying short on EUR pairs specially selling rallies EURJPY may be more handy.
YEN after strongly appreciating, there is a reduced risks of a reversal. Even if risk appetite gains interest and equity markets continue to north (STAY LONG ON JPY).
Technical Overview of AUD/CAD and EUR/GBP Currency Pair
AUD CAD
The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9291.
As mentioned earlier that AUDCAD has been in a Double Top Formation. Now we see that we have 1- Broke the neckline. 2 - Broke the previous Value Area Low and VPOC levels. 3 - Broke the Trendline. 4 - Broke below the Main trend. 5 - Its below the weekly monthly yearly and quarterly pivots. 6 - Formed a Morobozu candle on D1. 7 - Fundamentally AUD is weak due to rate cuts and CAD is strong due to 25k jobs added in CANADA. 8 - Broke the - 3 week VPOC resistance. 9 - Selling at the rally may be a good opportunity.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.92765, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92620. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.93154, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.93398. AUD CAD Previous Day range was 38.9 and Current Day Range is 37.6.
EUR GBP
The EUR traded lower against the GBP and closed at 0.8895.
1 - A bearish bias on GBP and AUD. 2 - A double top formed on the yearly pivot. 3 - The neckline is also the previous resistance. 4 - A break below the MSup1 will lead the pair to the latest resistance, triggering a buy limit situation. 5 - The pair forms a Pivot Support trend line and is supported by fundamentals. 6 - This is the first day after NFP so we will come to know the market wise by end of UK session.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88625, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.89143, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89334.
EUR GBP Previous Day range was 51.8 and Current Day Range is 24.9.
Technical Overview of USD/CHF and EUR/USD Currency Pair
USD CHF
The USD traded higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9897.
1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion. 2 - It stalls in between the previous week value area HIGH & LOW. 3 - The VPOC level is in confluence with Quarterly Pivot. 4 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother Bar Inside Bar Value Area High and Low. 5 - The pair has been in a series of LH and LL. 6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year. 7 - Its advised to trade the Value area High and Low as support/resistance until a market profile P/D/B shape is formed. According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.98808, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.98647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99164, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99359. USD CHF Previous Day range was 35.6 and Current Day Range is 13.5.
EUR USD
The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1311.
1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion. 2 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother bar Inside Bar. 3 - It’s in tight range of previous week Value area High and Quarter Pivot. 4 - The pair has been in a series of HH and HL. 5 - As we can see that the pair has shifted its direction to Higher Highs in the weekly Pivots. 6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12906, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12699. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.13515.
EUR USD Previous Day range was 40.8 and Current Day Range is 15.
Morning Briefing
1 - The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs. 2 - Euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow. 3 - RBA to cut rates in August meeting. 4 - BoC on hold for now with the next move in rates likely up. 5 - More EUR/USD Short Covering Likely Within 1.1280 - 1.1380 Ranges.
Here we see a very interesting scenario that 1 - USD Index is in a range, the range continues buy Pound Swissie and Euro. All the above mentioned pairs share the same formations. 2 - A Motherbar/Insidebar found @ D1 time frame. 3 - Stalls @ the Year Resistance 1. 4 - Already achieved the 200% Extensions. 5 - Stalls @ Pivot Quarter 1 as a Support 6 - The Motherbar/Insidebar @ the Pivot support and resistances 7 - The most important reason for this range is the mixed data from USD. Like rate cuts and positive economic data. 8 - The CPI data is expected today. Keep in mind that it’s correlated with PPI data. Detailed Historical data Analysis shows that the Moving average of Period 2 has a downwards slope in CPI and PPI.
According to the Analysis, The Dollar Index is expected to find support at 96.433, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 96.333. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 96.683, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.833.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.9286 G-20 Meeting Ahead on 28th June for US China Issues!
4 Possible outcomes at the coming G20 meeting: (1) President Xi does not show at the G20 and the US imposes more tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 fairly quickly. (2) Xi and Trump meet but talks do not go well and US threatens further tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 but more gradually. (3) Status quo scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to disagree, tariffs go up as planned but USDCNH likely tests 7.00 later in July. (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.
According to the Analysis, The USD/CNH is expected to find support at 6.92356, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.91848. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.93474, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.94084.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of AUD/USD, CHF/JPY, AUD/CAD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6869. 1 - 1 month long consolidation 0.6850-0.7000 threatens to be below because of the rate cut news. 2 - RBA will be cutting rates to 0.75% till November. 3 - On a daily chart we see a perfect resistance trend line indicating a downwards movement 4 - On daily chart the 1Month long support level can be seen 5 - The pair is below Yearly, Quarterly, Weekly and monthly pivots 6 - We can expect a bearish sentiment in the AUD till November as we know there may be massive rate cuts (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85. According to the Analysis, The AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.68478, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68260. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69046, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69396.
CHF JPY
CHF traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.654. As we already see that market is in a risk aversion state. There is more room for USDJPY to do down. China and Russia are shaking hands against USD, This may strengthen the CHY and devaluate the USD. Keep in mind that now a day’s its only fundamentals that are playing in the market. In my opinion The strong currencies are JPY CHF CNY and Weak are USD GBP AUD.
According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 108.384, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.113. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.020, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.385.
AUD CAD
AUD traded higher against CAD and closed at 0.9212. Fundamentally we know that AUD is weaker due to 2 rate cuts expected in 2019 and low to 0.75% basis points. Hence we can compare it with the strength of CAD. Here we see that the pair has found a support at the low from 01.03.2019. As this is a very major support and has been the low of last year, we may expect a short term bounce but the Fundamental bias is towards South.
According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 0.91924, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.91728. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.92257, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.92394.
EUR JPY
EUR traded higher against JPY and closed at 121.677. Risk Aversion is an open secret now. We all know that the investors are after the strength of CHF and JPY. Here in the EURJPY we see 5 bullish candles moving ahead to the 5-day ADR Monthly Pivot Weekly Pivot So, we can expect a breakout from the ADR high or A low volume test candle signaling a bearish continuation.
According to the Analysis, The EUR/JPY is expected to find support at 121.422, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.168. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 122.095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.514.
Fundamentals of the Day
BCC announced that it may see a slowed growth in the British Chamber of Commerce. As this announcement may have a negative impact on the GBP, Its advised to stay short on GBP.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced on Monday that the second phase of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio. This process is adapted by economies who want to stabilize their economy. Keep in mind that there is G-20 Meeting ahead, that’s why China is Stabilizing itself to face any sort of bad effect of the meeting.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1193. Long-term trend: Down EUR USD still moving within 8 years of falling trend channel.
Short-term trend: Neutral Breaking below solid support around 1.1220.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11686, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11442. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12301, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12672.
USD JPY
USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.442. Long-term trend: Down On the verge of completing a large triangle on the downside.
Short-term trend: Down Developing a bear flag formation, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.108, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.774. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.010.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.376. Long-term trend: Down A test of the solid horizontal support around 111.95 should be expected.
Short-term trend: Down The picture is weakening, waiting for a break below the crucial support around 120.90.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.003, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.629. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.808, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.239.
Key Fundamentals of the Day G10: Markets Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC; AUD/NZD: Downside FX market is likely to consolidate ahead of the Fed While flagging a scope for further downside in AUD/NZD In anticipation of another RBA cut. At the central bank coming policy meeting.
Trump comments on Trade War The US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the US and Chinese trade talk teams will restart talks ahead of the G20 summit. This could result in a down fall in the USD/CNH Pair
Facebook goes into cryptocurrencies On Tuesday, it was announced by Facebook that the company plans to launch its Cryptocurrency, which is named Libra. Moreover, the social network will offer crypto wallets named Calibra.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of GBP/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pair
GBP USD
GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2697. Sterling slips after BoE holds rates but cuts growth forecast
The BoE message was far less dovish than the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which this week opened the door to rate cuts. Sterling has rallied in recent days, pulling away from five-month lows, as investors dumped the dollar following the Fed’s dovish signaling.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.26437 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.25904. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27385, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.27800.
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6919. Black Rock Inc. is shorting the Australian dollar. The currency has been out of favor this year as the RBA turned dovish and cut rates for the first time in three years. The central bank trimmed its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on June 4, with Governor Philip saying the decision would help reduce unemployment and boost inflation.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.68858, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68523. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69441, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69689.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
FED has a next move, Opportunity to Sell Fed easing will eventually pull USD lower. It’s believed that any additional USD firmness over the next 1-2 weeks will set up for a sell opportunity. Suicide Rates among Young Americans Accelerates To Highest Level Since 2000.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of USD/JPY, EUR/USD and AUD/USD Currency Pair
USD JPY USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 107.29.
The Citigroup analysts make a case for buying the dips in the USD/JPY pair below 107.50 support area, as they believe the downside doesn’t look more compelling. USD: Weakness Likely To Extend As Key Technical Support Levels Are Broken. The dollar index finally broke below its 200-day moving average on Friday at 96.600 which opens the door to further weakness in the near-term. Flags a scope for further weakness in the future.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.179 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.468, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.646.
EUR USD EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1397.
Longs Super-Trade In The Month Heading To Fed's Cut. EUR/USD position as the second-best G-10 FX trade in months leading up to the first Fed cut, only outpaced by a long EUR/NZD position. ECB easing is also a done deal now, as Draghi hinted of easing unless the outlook improves (more QE and a rate cut). The outlook will not improve (before 2020), but the ECB usually delivers when projections are updated – i.e. in September (they will ease with a time-lag after the Fed.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.13742, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13511. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14120, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14267.
AUD USD AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6958.
RBA Maintains Call For Infrastructure Investment. Rate cuts at low yield levels may not be enough to boost economy. Quantitative Easing may be done.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69354, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69122. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69750, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69914.
Key Fundamentals of the Day Gold- Fed is seen cutting rates by a 50bp in July Analysts at Morgan Stanley raises their gold price forecast for the second half of this year and the year after, in the face of the dovish Fed rate expectations, broad dollar weakness, global economic slowdown and falling US rates. Real yields close to zero would reduce demand for yielding USD assets, could increase the demand for gold. The negative territory could generate considerable further upside for gold's price. Gold price forecast to average USD 1,435 in H2 of this year and USD 1,338 in 2020.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1365. EUR/USD position as the second-best G-10 FX trade in months leading up to the first Fed cut, only outpaced by a long EUR/NZD position. ECB easing is also a done deal now, as Draghi hinted of easing unless the outlook improves (more QE and a rate cut). The outlook will not improve (before 2020), but the ECB usually delivers when projections are updated – i.e. in September (they will ease with a time-lag after the Fed. Break of ADR Highs to further extensions or Break of Support to form a Double top.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.13353 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13059. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14030, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14413.
GBP USD
GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2675. Pair @ support from previous 3 week Pivot. Pair @ support from Pivot support candle. Preparing for Pre G-20 Meeting. Resistance @ Pivot resistance candle. Resistance @ Monthly Pivot.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.26366, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.25980. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27488, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28224.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday, hitting a three-month low against the euro. As expectations of multiple decreases of U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve have spurred selling of the U.S. currency. Growing tensions between Iran and the United States stoked fresh safe-haven buying of the yen. President Donald Trump believes the U.S. dollar is too strong, and the euro is.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/CHF, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY Currency Pair
EUR CHF
EUR traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.1116. Long-term trend: Neutral. The weekly close below support around 1.1130 suggests further selling pressure. Short-term trend: Down. The consolidation below the lower end trading of the trading range around 1.1150 is bearish.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.10864 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.10571. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.11345, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.11533.
EUR JPY
EUR traded higher against JPY and closed at 122.527. Long-term trend: Down. A test of the solid horizontal support around 111.95 should be expected. Short-term trend: Neutral. Higher prices are still possible, although the upside potential remains limited.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.983, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.440. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 122.848, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 123.170.
AUD JPY
AUD traded higher against JPY and closed at 75.271. Long-term trend: Down. Long-term solid horizontal support comes in around 72.15. Short-term trend: Neutral: Bottoming scenario confirmed by breaking upper end falling trend channel around 74.70.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 74.745, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 74.220. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.572, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 75.874.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of USD/CNH, USD/CHF and USD/CAD Currency Pair
USD CNH
USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.8679.
G20 Summit is over now, it’s expected that the weakness of the USD may continue. On the other hand we may see strength in the safe heaven and CNH. President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar to help boost exports, and is counting on the Federal Reserve to help make that happen. But the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, has made clear it’s not his job.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 6.85980 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.85170. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.87757, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.88724.
USD CHF
USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9764.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.97432, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.97225. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.97793, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.97947.
USD CAD
USD traded higher against CAD and closed at 1.3099.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30715, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30440. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31142, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31294.
Major Economic Events of the Day
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, released by Market, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6963.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as was widely expected, decided to cut interest rates for the second month in a row to a historic low level of 1.0% at its July monetary policy meeting held this Tuesday. The decision was on expected lines and hence, did little to prompt any fresh selling around the Australian Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair holding steady above mid-0.6900s.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69344 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70132, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70633.
Major Economic Events of the Day Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. His appointment as Governor was approved by Her Majesty the Queen on 26 November 2012. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013.
Philip Lowe replaced Glenn Stevens as governor of Australia’s central bank. Lowe was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position he held since February 2012.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of GBP/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair
GBP USD
GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2527. GBP/USD - Charts Suggest the 2019 Low Is Vulnerable. D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south. Broke D1 Ib towards the down side. Broke the Quarter Support and Month Support. Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.24759 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24252. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.25822, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.26378.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.779. EUR/JPY: Scope for Retesting 120.82. D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south. Broke D1 Ib towards the down side. It's in range but projects towards the down side.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.596 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.414. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.943, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.108.
Major Economic Events of the Day
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and AUD/USD and GBP/NZD Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1208. EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1190/1.1230 range. According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11943 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11810. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12320.
AUD USD
AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6926. AUD/USD - Edges Lower After Weak Consumer Confidence Bears Seem Confident Ahead Of Fed
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69059 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68858. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69948.
GBP NZD
GBP traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.8856. Overnight NZD was struck by a massive selling order. It was almost 34 pips in Asian session. UK Manufacturing Production today We can see that the expected 2.1 is way lot better than previous –3.9 if we have a positive tone from GBP then the Technical and fundamental bounce from the lows will be supported.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.88115 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.87673. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.88989, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.89421.
Major Economic Events of the Day CAD: BOC Tone On Wed Likely A Bit More Optimistic Than Markets Assuming – CIBC “While not a stunner for markets, the tone will tend to be a bit more optimistic than what markets are now assuming.” The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell's prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of USD/CAD and USD/JPY Currency Pair
USD CAD USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3069. Trades near the yearly-low (1.3037) even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate fails to break out of the monthly opening range.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30436 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30179. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31169.
USD JPY USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.487. USD/JPY to find support from yields may face resistance above 109.00. Its approaching resistance level and fundamentally the weakness of USD may drive the pair lower.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.053 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.964.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
When i make my money through iQ binary options, I never believed myself till I become who I am today. So join me now and trade with full assurance of making huge profits every four working days. No spammers, No scammers, No loosing %100 honest.Contact broker email.....daviddaniell366@gmail.com phone..+1 205-584-3978
Technical Overview of AUD/USD and USD/JPY Currency Pair
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7022.
Maintain a bullish data; Staying Long is more favorable as compared to short. Daily chart has a break above close above 10 EMA. Targets may be 0.73, Daily High and Weekly High has also been breached over night. Looking for a break meaningfully above resistance earlier this week at 0.7036 and remain long AUDUSD targeting 0.7300.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69868 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69515. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70409, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70597.
USD JPY
USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 107.885.
3 - Bearish Days for the Dollar, Expectations are the Rate cut by end of July. Bearish sentiment leads the currency against the basket of CHF and JPY. Selling rallies may be a positive approach in trading the safe-heaven. The basket trades below Quarterly and Yearly Pivots.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.589 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.292. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.902.
Major Events of the Day
NZD: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2) Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.
CNY: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of AUD/USD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7008.
Higher After Post-Aus Jobs Short-Covering AUD/NZD rallied from a 4-month low at 1.0404 to 1.0435. AUD/USD rally was short-covering as it doesn't change RBA expectations. Resistance at 0.7045 while 10-day MA at 0.6991 is support.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69948 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69811. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70233, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70381.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.15.
JPY breaking its lows on daily candle as well as weekly candle. The losers against the JPY are USD and EUR for now. Pretty decent Harmonic patterns found on H4 charts that are in confluence with the Fundamental expects.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.038 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.926. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.592.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY and GBP/AUD Currency Pair
EUR AUD
EUR traded higher against AUD and closed at 1.5936.
Below 200 and 50 EMA. Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. A Bearish/Resistance Trend line Formed. Better option is to trade the strength of AUD and Remain short. Alternatively Go long if the pair breaches the Resistance Trend Line.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.58949 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.58541. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.60044, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.60731.
AUD JPY
AUD traded higher against JPY and closed at 75.898.
The pair is in a Weekly MBIB formation. The pair slashed the Daily and Weekly Highs. Making a triangle formation as well on the H4. It’s above 50 and 200 EMA Breakout Levels Marked. Target the breakout of 127 Extension on either side.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 75.563 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 75.227. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 76.109, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 76.319.
GBP AUD
GBP traded higher against AUD and closed at 1.773.
Perfect Example of Currency Strength Analysis. Strength of AUD leads the pair to South. The recent bearish News on the Pound supports the movement. It has already breached through Weekly Lows and is below 200 and 50 EMA. For now it's in a Daily Chart Mother bar inside Bar. A break below will be trend continuation.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.76797 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.76296. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.77716, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.78134.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/NZD and EUR/JPY Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1220.
Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side. Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Stalling in the Weekly Inside bar Pattern. Break on either side may lead the trend. The most important factor is the Fed rate cut.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1214 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1207. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1226, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1231.
AUD NZD
AUD traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.0401.
Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side. Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Broke the Weekly inside Bar Pattern to the down side. Broke the low of Monthly candle, Any Selling opportunity may be good option.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.0383 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0376. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0396, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0402.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 120.77.
Bears in control as they broke the Weekly In sidebar and are to target the bearish ABCD Pattern, heading towards minimum 127 extension.
ECB steers the market towards more easing later in the year. Quantitative Easing and Further rate cut by 10 Basis Points will weaken the EURO. This rate cut may occur in September. Until then EURO may remain sideways.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 120.94 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.10, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.20.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/CHF Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1208.
EUR/USD - Bears get clear signals ahead of ECB Meet. We have break below close below of Daily Ib and Weekly Ib. Bollinger bands facing towards south. EUR/USD near-term downside limited to channel base 1.1158 Quiet Trading Expected Ahead Of Key Event Risks ECB meeting Thursday and FOMC next week likely be catalysts for breakout.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12013 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11941. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12204, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12323.
GBP CHF
GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.225.
The GBP/CHF continued to trade downwards, targeting the lower area located @1.2000. Given that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour moving averages and has breached low of Monthly candle currently located in the 1.2285/1.2325 range, it is expected, that the British Pound could continue to depreciate against the Swiss Franc.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.22173 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.21845. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.22931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.23361.
Fundamentals of the Day
1) Dollar rises as fears of a 50 point interest-rate cut fade The U.S. dollar rose in afternoon trade on Friday as fears of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July abated after the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president the prior day.
2) ECB Bank Lending Survey The bank lending survey (BLS) for the euro area was launched in 2003. Its main objective is to enhance the Eurosystem’s knowledge of financing conditions in the euro area. The BLS provides input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of monetary and economic developments, on which it bases its monetary policy decisions.
3) FPC Meeting Minutes Bank of England Financial Policy Committee Minutes is a detailed record of the FPC's most recent meeting. The report, which is released quarterly, provides in-depth insights into the financial conditions and decisions towards financial stability.
4) Tory Leadership Contest Result Announcement The UK Conservative Party is set to announce the results of the vote for its new leadership. UK tories have been voting for weeks and the race has been trimmed to two candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. The winner of the contest will become the new British Prime Minister, succeeding Theresa May at the Number 10 Downing Street office.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD and GBP/USD Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1121.
Staying Tactically Bearish For 1.1050; A 50bp Fed Cut Would Be A Game Changer.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11543. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14118, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14725.
GBP USD
GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2343.
To New 2019 Low As EU Affirms No Reopening Of Brexit Deal.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.25558 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24902. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28338.
COT Report for Different Currencies this week
COT Report for Swisse Swissie Net Commercials volume is above the 0 mark and in a positive side showing Net Long positions in strength. Its a wise decision to remain Long on swissie.
COT Report for Canadian Dollar Here In Canadian Dollar Net Commercials we see that from the 11th June- 18th June. The Canadian Dollar has weighted towards a Net Commercial Short Position. Means that Shorting Canadian Will be a wise decision, Alternatively Going Long on the retracements can also be entertained.
COT Report for US Dollar US Dollar Net Commercial Positions Weighs towards the Net Short side. It can be clearly seen that from the Year start , the commercials have been interested in shorting the US Dollar.
COT Report for GBP After facing turbulance from 19 March to almost a month ,GBP Net commercials weigh towards the Long Net Positions. GBP may show some reaction to the COT Report this week.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
Technical Overview of EUR/USD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD Currency Pair
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1107.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) today shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1121 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1130 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1135.
AUD USD
AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6799.
AUD/USD down 0.5% in sympathy with a weakening Yuan as China fights back. USD/CNY blasts through pivotal 7.00 as US-China trade tensions escalate. Leads to risk aversion in Asia as risk/EM assets sold across board. Havens JPY, XAU +0.5%, US-10 year yield hits 1.7890, lowest since Nov 9, 2016. Risk barometer AUD/JPY -1% to a new 2019 low; RBA to sound more dovish Tues?
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6776 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6768. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6794.
NZD USD
NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6540
A number of downward slopping trend lines indicate weakness of NZD/USD. 10-week old support-line grabs bears’ attention. In addition to a two-day long descending trend-line, the NZD/USD pair’s sustained trading below a resistance-line stretched since late-July also portrays its weakness as the quote seesaws near 0.6510 during early Monday.
The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, today a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6521 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6513. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6537.
Comments
AUD JPY
The AUD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 75.703.
1) Pair in a tight range.
2) Pair forms a Support @ 77.50.
3) keep in mind that AUD announces time rate Cut in 2019 and total 4 times till 2020.
4) So it makes no sense to waiting for resistance to be broker as we know JPY is safe heaven in this RISK Aversion state.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 75.517, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 75.330. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.919, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 76.134.
AUD JPY Previous Day range was 4020 and Current Day Range is 2230.
Economic Events
1) RBNZ Financial Stability Report (It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future).
2) Bank of Canada (BOC) Interest Rate Announcement.
3) GBP/USD: UK’s political uncertainty favors bears targeting 1.2600.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit our YouTube Channel.
The XAU traded lower against the USD and closed at 1280.34.
What do we have in the shiny material?
1) Bearish ABCD Pattern.
2) "C" @ 50% Retracement.
3) "C" @ Monthly Pivot.
4) "C" @ the Value Area Low of - 2 Week.
5) "C" forms a Double Top in it - self, followed by 61.8% retracement.
6) Forms a support trendline from D1 Pivot Candles.
Scenarios:
1. Bulls need to break above Month Pivot.
2. Bears need to break below the D1 support trend line.
According to the Analysis, The XAU/USD pair is expected to find support at 1277.77, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1275.20. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1284.25, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1288.16.
XAU USD Previous Day range was 6.48 and Current Day Range is 31100.
Overview of Gold
1) It is expected, that the price for gold could continue to decline. A potential downside target is the support level at 1,273 & Stalls @ the monthly pivot.
2) As it has formed a Large Bullish High volume Candle, It represents that the aggressive news buying is over and if the Highs r not broken then we may see it to decline again.
3) It’s making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows, Representing a declining position.
4) It’s in a formation of Gartley Pattern.
5) The D1 Price and Change in Candle Chart below For May 2019. We can see whenever the price and change in candle r in close proximity with each other they repell, triggering a change in trend.
Overview of Silver
1) It is expected, that the price for silver could continue to decline.
2) From the past 10 weeks, Silver is declining and making a series of Lower Lows and Higher Lows.
3) Now the Metal made a High Volume Candle.
4) At the Weekly Pivot.
5) Below the Last week Pivot.
6) At the previous and current Value Area High.
7) Test of 20 EMA from Daily 1 Chart.
8) A break below close below candle may trigger a selling bias again.
9) With Strong support @ SUP1 Week 1 = 14.38.
10) With Strong Support @ SUP2 Month 1 =14.36.
AUD CAD
The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9174.
1-After making a down move of 406 pips, the pair begin ascending.
2 - It’s above the 60/80 ema.
3 - Its above the weekly and monthly Pivot.
4 - It formed a Double Top Pattern, A breakout above the 127 Extension may lead the pair to covet the space made by 406 Pip down Move.
5 - If we have a look at the Futures data then we may see that the slope of AUD is towards UP side and CAD is towards Down.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.93363, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92984. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.94012, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.94282.
AUD CAD Previous Day range was 64.9 and Current Day Range is 30.3.
AUD CHF
The AUD traded lower against the CHF and closed at 0.6941.
1 - The Pair formed a double top.
2 - It could not breach the Up extension off 127 hence it confirms a double top.
3 - The 60/80 ema is facing towards down.
4 - Fundamentally as we know market is in Risk Off Scenario so we can gain help from the strength of Safe Heaven CHF to support this trade.
5 - A space with many Open orders left to cover while going towards the down side remaining.
6 - Pair is below the Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly and weekly forming a Proper Sync formation of trend.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.69279, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69151. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69624, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69841.
AUD CHF Previous Day range was 34.5 and Current Day Range is 37.1.
Weekly Briefing
On Sunday, the Chinese government published a paper in which it was announced that China will not back off in the US-China trade war despite recent tariffs.
The Chinese securities and markets regulators announced that the impact of trade wars on financial markets can be controlled.
This may Strengthen The CNY because a few days earlier the officials said that those who short the CNY will face many Losses.
The Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority stated on Sunday steady slowdown of world economy growth could negatively affect oil market and, as a result, the country's economy temps of growth. It signals that when there will be instability then Who WILL BUY OIL? The Supply may exceed Demand.
The J.P. Morgan analytics department stated on Saturday that escalating trade tensions with China and other countries could force the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates two more times in 2019- High interest Rate = Strength of the Economy
A fundamental surge has occurred. Due to another Trump tariff announcement the USD dropped like a brick. As a result of that commodity prices have jumped. Gold touched the 1,300.00 level on Friday.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD JPY
The USD traded higher against the JPY and closed at 108.055.
The pair formed an AB= CD pattern.
It’s below Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly pivot.
NO Price Action Signal.
It broke the Pivot support trend line.
But
Fundamentally as we know that Safe Heaven is in demand and USD has announced a rate cut so we can assume to sell on the rallies.
As we can see the VPOC level 108.22 is a good Value area to go short.
This may be a purely fundamental trade if shorts take over the market.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 107.809, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.564. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.372, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.690.
USD JPY Previous Day range was 5630 and Current Day Range is 3320.
NZD CAD
The NZD traded lower against the CAD and closed at 0.8864.
The main trend heads towards North.
Pivot support trendline formed.
Price successfully trading above the current and previous weekly pivot level.
Price breached towards north the - 3 week Pivots.
A Buy on the dips will be preferable.
For now
NZD is the strongest and USD and CAD are Weakest.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88309, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.87977. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88876, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89111.
NZD CAD Previous Day range was 56.7 and Current Day Range is 30.6.
Morning Briefing
The U.S. dollar fell on Monday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said an interest rate cut "may be warranted soon," given the rising economic risk posed by global trade tensions as well as weak U.S. inflation.
Hedge funds stepped up their negative bets on sterling.
While sterling edged further off five-month lows on Monday, rising 0.15% to $1.2645, short positions are slowly building up in the background, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors on the outlook for the British economy.
Short positions are at their highest level since March 17.
The RBA is expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday to a new record low of 1.25%. We expect a follow-up cut in August, with the risk of additional stimulus by early 2020.
ING discusses EUR/USD: We are still expecting a downside breakout below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115 in the coming weeks. This will trigger a serious Sell signal
EUR/USD Bulls May Retreat If ECB Tilts Dovish On Thursday.
Squawk: Prefer to sell USD/JPY on rallies, while maintains a long NZD/CAD as its trade of this week targeting a move towards 0.8950.
Overview of Gold
From a theoretical point of view, it is expected, that a reversal south could occur in the nearest future.
In this case, the rate has to surpass the 1,309.31 level.
If the given support level holds, it is likely, that gold could trade sideways between it and the upper channel line.
It is unlikely, that the price for gold could jump higher than 1,333.68 due to the resistance of the Q1 R1.
Gold is above the yearly and Quarterly Pivots.
Better to wait for the Metal to form a Double Top and Fill the space it made.
Technically if we look at the Futures Data then we see that the data is making a formation of Double Top. If we break the neck line then we may have a down movement.
On the other hand we can see downwards slope in the USD Futures a crossover may strengthen USD.
For Detailed Technical Analysis Visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
NZD CAD
The NZD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.8849.
Very Interesting pair for now.
Main trend aka 60/80 Ema is towards south.
The pair made a Pivot low candle support trend line.
It formed a Mb/Ib.
It’s above weekly Pivot and has formed a CUP Pattern.
A break above/below 127 extension may form a breakout.
Remember yesterday it was announced to stay long on NZDCAD.
Keep in mind that NZD is the most Interest paying nation for now.
The rate of change in Currency strength meter shows that NZD is the most strongest for now.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88361, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88235. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88672, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88857.
NZD CAD Previous Day range was 31.1 and Current Day Range is 37.8.
Morning Briefing
USD: The U.S. dollar was modestly lower on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell alluded to the possibility of an interest rate cut in the face of economic risks, including the global trade war.
EURGBP: Weakening of domestic data in UK combined with euro spread compression, the EUR/GBP could move towards 0.90.
Believe tactical EUR/SEK short positions remain attract.. Also maintain our CAD/NOK short and EUR/GBP long exposure.
Short USD/JPY than long EUR/USD. Short EUR/JPY still works.
There’s a bit more AUD short-covering to come.
AUD/USD Traders A Green Light To Sell.
News of the Day!
AUD GDP to be announced today.
As we can see in the history we have a decline situation. Due to Weaker retail sales, weaker employment and ewages data, so it’s expected to have a weaker GDP for now.
To have a better GDP, The AUD must have readings above 0.40%.
EUR GBP
The EUR traded higher against the GBP and closed at 0.8841.
Overall the market may be in a range because of NFP scheduled for Friday.
The pair stalls at the weekly Pivot.
It has a major resistance at 0.9000 Level (Distribution level).
We can expect a selling pressure if the pair breaks the VPOC of current month (in confluence with the - 3 week Value area high).
We may target the ADR 5 day low as Take Profit zone.
No more big movements expected because of the NFP news scheduled for Friday
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88292, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88169. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.88657, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.88899.
EUR GBP Previous Day range was 36.5 and Current Day Range is 12.6.
Morning Briefing
ADP National Employment Report states that U.S. private employers added 27K jobs in May, This reading is well below the forecast, This gain is the most Smallest gain in the Past 9 years
Federal Reserve Chairman stated that FED considers to cut rates and soon.
Key Points in the above statements are:
1-ADP report says that the added jobs are less than expected and is the lowest increase in 9 years(This can be a negative news for USD).
2- FED considers to cut rates soon is a clear signal for weakness in the $$$.
So fundamentally staying Short on the $ may be more attractive than Long.
ECB will confirm economic risks remains to the downside and anticipate that ECB President Draghi will present a dovish tone to the monetary policy outlook; it means that we may have a Weaker EUR and its most strong competitor is JPY, so technically staying short on EUR pairs specially selling rallies EURJPY may be more handy.
YEN after strongly appreciating, there is a reduced risks of a reversal. Even if risk appetite gains interest and equity markets continue to north (STAY LONG ON JPY).
AUD CAD
The AUD traded higher against the CAD and closed at 0.9291.
As mentioned earlier that AUDCAD has been in a Double Top Formation.
Now we see that we have
1- Broke the neckline.
2 - Broke the previous Value Area Low and VPOC levels.
3 - Broke the Trendline.
4 - Broke below the Main trend.
5 - Its below the weekly monthly yearly and quarterly pivots.
6 - Formed a Morobozu candle on D1.
7 - Fundamentally AUD is weak due to rate cuts and CAD is strong due to 25k jobs added in CANADA.
8 - Broke the - 3 week VPOC resistance.
9 - Selling at the rally may be a good opportunity.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.92765, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.92620. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.93154, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.93398.
AUD CAD Previous Day range was 38.9 and Current Day Range is 37.6.
EUR GBP
The EUR traded lower against the GBP and closed at 0.8895.
1 - A bearish bias on GBP and AUD.
2 - A double top formed on the yearly pivot.
3 - The neckline is also the previous resistance.
4 - A break below the MSup1 will lead the pair to the latest resistance, triggering a buy limit situation.
5 - The pair forms a Pivot Support trend line and is supported by fundamentals.
6 - This is the first day after NFP so we will come to know the market wise by end of UK session.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.88625, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.88298. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.89143, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.89334.
EUR GBP Previous Day range was 51.8 and Current Day Range is 24.9.
USD CHF
The USD traded higher against the CHF and closed at 0.9897.
1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
2 - It stalls in between the previous week value area HIGH & LOW.
3 - The VPOC level is in confluence with Quarterly Pivot.
4 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother Bar Inside Bar Value Area High and Low.
5 - The pair has been in a series of LH and LL.
6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.
7 - Its advised to trade the Value area High and Low as support/resistance until a market profile P/D/B shape is formed.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 0.98808, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.98647. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.99164, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.99359.
USD CHF Previous Day range was 35.6 and Current Day Range is 13.5.
EUR USD
The EUR traded higher against the USD and closed at 1.1311.
1 - Fundamentally the pair to follow Risk Aversion.
2 - The Pair formed a Motherbar Insidebar @ Previous Week Mother bar Inside Bar.
3 - It’s in tight range of previous week Value area High and Quarter Pivot.
4 - The pair has been in a series of HH and HL.
5 - As we can see that the pair has shifted its direction to Higher Highs in the weekly Pivots.
6 - Fundamentally USD has to be weak because of 2 rate cuts expected this year.
According to the Analysis, The pair is expected to find support at 1.12906, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.12699. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.13314, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.13515.
EUR USD Previous Day range was 40.8 and Current Day Range is 15.
Morning Briefing
1 - The dollar gained on Monday after the United States and Mexico reached a deal to avoid tariffs.
2 - Euro faltered after sources said European Central Bank policymakers were open to cutting interest rates should economic growth slow.
3 - RBA to cut rates in August meeting.
4 - BoC on hold for now with the next move in rates likely up.
5 - More EUR/USD Short Covering Likely Within 1.1280 - 1.1380 Ranges.
USD Dollar Index
Here we see a very interesting scenario that
1 - USD Index is in a range, the range continues buy Pound Swissie and Euro.
All the above mentioned pairs share the same formations.
2 - A Motherbar/Insidebar found @ D1 time frame.
3 - Stalls @ the Year Resistance 1.
4 - Already achieved the 200% Extensions.
5 - Stalls @ Pivot Quarter 1 as a Support
6 - The Motherbar/Insidebar @ the Pivot support and resistances
7 - The most important reason for this range is the mixed data from USD. Like rate cuts and positive economic data.
8 - The CPI data is expected today.
Keep in mind that it’s correlated with PPI data.
Detailed Historical data Analysis shows that the Moving average of Period 2 has a downwards slope in CPI and PPI.
According to the Analysis, The Dollar Index is expected to find support at 96.433, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 96.333. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 96.683, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 96.833.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD CNH
USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.9286
G-20 Meeting Ahead on 28th June for US China Issues!
4 Possible outcomes at the coming G20 meeting:
(1) President Xi does not show at the G20 and the US imposes more tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 fairly quickly.
(2) Xi and Trump meet but talks do not go well and US threatens further tariffs - USDCNH likely breaks 7.00 but more gradually.
(3) Status quo scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to disagree, tariffs go up as planned but USDCNH likely tests 7.00 later in July.
(4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.
According to the Analysis, The USD/CNH is expected to find support at 6.92356, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.91848. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.93474, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.94084.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6869.
1 - 1 month long consolidation 0.6850-0.7000 threatens to be below because of the rate cut news.
2 - RBA will be cutting rates to 0.75% till November.
3 - On a daily chart we see a perfect resistance trend line indicating a downwards movement
4 - On daily chart the 1Month long support level can be seen
5 - The pair is below Yearly, Quarterly, Weekly and monthly pivots
6 - We can expect a bearish sentiment in the AUD till November as we know there may be massive rate cuts (4) Max bull scenario: Xi and Trump meet, agree to re-start negotiations in coming weeks, risk bounces, USDCNH to 6.80-85.
According to the Analysis, The AUD/USD is expected to find support at 0.68478, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68260. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69046, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69396.
CHF JPY
CHF traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.654.
As we already see that market is in a risk aversion state. There is more room for USDJPY to do down. China and Russia are shaking hands against USD, This may strengthen the CHY and devaluate the USD.
Keep in mind that now a day’s its only fundamentals that are playing in the market. In my opinion The strong currencies are JPY CHF CNY and Weak are USD GBP AUD.
According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 108.384, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 108.113. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 109.020, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.385.
AUD CAD
AUD traded higher against CAD and closed at 0.9212.
Fundamentally we know that AUD is weaker due to 2 rate cuts expected in 2019 and low to 0.75% basis points. Hence we can compare it with the strength of CAD.
Here we see that the pair has found a support at the low from 01.03.2019.
As this is a very major support and has been the low of last year, we may expect a short term bounce but the Fundamental bias is towards South.
According to the Analysis, The CHF/JPY is expected to find support at 0.91924, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.91728. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.92257, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.92394.
EUR JPY
EUR traded higher against JPY and closed at 121.677.
Risk Aversion is an open secret now. We all know that the investors are after the strength of CHF and JPY. Here in the EURJPY we see 5 bullish candles moving ahead to the 5-day ADR
Monthly Pivot
Weekly Pivot
So, we can expect a breakout from the ADR high or
A low volume test candle signaling a bearish continuation.
According to the Analysis, The EUR/JPY is expected to find support at 121.422, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.168. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 122.095, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.514.
Fundamentals of the Day
BCC announced that it may see a slowed growth in the British Chamber of Commerce.
As this announcement may have a negative impact on the GBP, Its advised to stay short on GBP.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank, announced on Monday that the second phase of a cut in the reserve requirement ratio. This process is adapted by economies who want to stabilize their economy. Keep in mind that there is G-20 Meeting ahead, that’s why China is Stabilizing itself to face any sort of bad effect of the meeting.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1193.
Long-term trend: Down
EUR USD still moving within 8 years of falling trend channel.
Short-term trend: Neutral
Breaking below solid support around 1.1220.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11686, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11442. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12301, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12672.
USD JPY
USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.442.
Long-term trend: Down
On the verge of completing a large triangle on the downside.
Short-term trend: Down
Developing a bear flag formation, indicating a continuation of the downtrend.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.108, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.774. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 109.010.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.376.
Long-term trend: Down
A test of the solid horizontal support around 111.95 should be expected.
Short-term trend: Down
The picture is weakening, waiting for a break below the crucial support around 120.90.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.003, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.629. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.808, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.239.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
G10: Markets Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC; AUD/NZD: Downside
FX market is likely to consolidate ahead of the Fed
While flagging a scope for further downside in AUD/NZD
In anticipation of another RBA cut.
At the central bank coming policy meeting.
Trump comments on Trade War
The US President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the US and Chinese trade talk teams will restart talks ahead of the G20 summit.
This could result in a down fall in the USD/CNH Pair
Facebook goes into cryptocurrencies
On Tuesday, it was announced by Facebook that the company plans to launch its Cryptocurrency, which is named Libra.
Moreover, the social network will offer crypto wallets named Calibra.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
GBP USD
GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2697.
Sterling slips after BoE holds rates but cuts growth forecast
The BoE message was far less dovish than the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, which this week opened the door to rate cuts.
Sterling has rallied in recent days, pulling away from five-month lows, as investors dumped the dollar following the Fed’s dovish signaling.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.26437 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.25904. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27385, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.27800.
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6919.
Black Rock Inc. is shorting the Australian dollar.
The currency has been out of favor this year as the RBA turned dovish and cut rates for the first time in three years.
The central bank trimmed its cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on June 4, with Governor Philip saying the decision would help reduce unemployment and boost inflation.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.68858, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68523. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69441, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69689.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
FED has a next move, Opportunity to Sell
Fed easing will eventually pull USD lower.
It’s believed that any additional USD firmness over the next 1-2 weeks will set up for a sell opportunity.
Suicide Rates among Young Americans Accelerates To Highest Level Since 2000.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD JPY
USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 107.29.
The Citigroup analysts make a case for buying the dips in the USD/JPY pair below 107.50
support area, as they believe the downside doesn’t look more compelling.
USD: Weakness Likely To Extend As Key Technical Support Levels Are Broken.
The dollar index finally broke below its 200-day moving average on Friday at 96.600 which opens the door to further weakness in the near-term.
Flags a scope for further weakness in the future.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.179 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.068. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 107.468, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 107.646.
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1397.
Longs Super-Trade In The Month Heading To Fed's Cut.
EUR/USD position as the second-best G-10 FX trade in months leading up to the first Fed cut, only outpaced by a long EUR/NZD position.
ECB easing is also a done deal now, as Draghi hinted of easing unless the outlook improves (more QE and a rate cut).
The outlook will not improve (before 2020), but the ECB usually delivers when projections are updated – i.e. in September (they will ease with a time-lag after the Fed.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.13742, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13511. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14120, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14267.
AUD USD
AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6958.
RBA Maintains Call For Infrastructure Investment.
Rate cuts at low yield levels may not be enough to boost economy.
Quantitative Easing may be done.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69354, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69122. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69750, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69914.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
Gold- Fed is seen cutting rates by a 50bp in July
Analysts at Morgan Stanley raises their gold price forecast for the second half of this year and the year after, in the face of the dovish Fed rate expectations, broad dollar weakness, global economic slowdown and falling US rates.
Real yields close to zero would reduce demand for yielding USD assets, could increase the demand for gold.
The negative territory could generate considerable further upside for gold's price.
Gold price forecast to average USD 1,435 in H2 of this year and USD 1,338 in 2020.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1365.
EUR/USD position as the second-best G-10 FX trade in months leading up to the first Fed cut, only outpaced by a long EUR/NZD position.
ECB easing is also a done deal now, as Draghi hinted of easing unless the outlook improves (more QE and a rate cut).
The outlook will not improve (before 2020), but the ECB usually delivers when projections are updated – i.e. in September (they will ease with a time-lag after the Fed.
Break of ADR Highs to further extensions or Break of Support to form a Double top.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.13353 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.13059. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14030, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14413.
GBP USD
GBP traded lower against USD and closed at 1.2675.
Pair @ support from previous 3 week Pivot.
Pair @ support from Pivot support candle.
Preparing for Pre G-20 Meeting.
Resistance @ Pivot resistance candle.
Resistance @ Monthly Pivot.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.26366, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.25980. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27488, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28224.
Key Fundamentals of the Day
The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday, hitting a three-month low against the euro.
As expectations of multiple decreases of U.S. interest rates by the Federal Reserve have spurred selling of the U.S. currency.
Growing tensions between Iran and the United States stoked fresh safe-haven buying of the yen.
President Donald Trump believes the U.S. dollar is too strong, and the euro is.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR CHF
EUR traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.1116.
Long-term trend: Neutral. The weekly close below support around 1.1130 suggests further selling pressure.
Short-term trend: Down. The consolidation below the lower end trading of the trading range around 1.1150 is bearish.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.10864 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.10571. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.11345, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.11533.
EUR JPY
EUR traded higher against JPY and closed at 122.527.
Long-term trend: Down. A test of the solid horizontal support around 111.95 should be expected.
Short-term trend: Neutral. Higher prices are still possible, although the upside potential remains limited.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.983, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.440. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 122.848, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 123.170.
AUD JPY
AUD traded higher against JPY and closed at 75.271.
Long-term trend: Down. Long-term solid horizontal support comes in around 72.15.
Short-term trend: Neutral: Bottoming scenario confirmed by breaking upper end falling trend channel
around 74.70.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 74.745, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 74.220. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 75.572, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 75.874.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD CNH
USD traded higher against CNH and closed at 6.8679.
G20 Summit is over now, it’s expected that the weakness of the USD may continue.
On the other hand we may see strength in the safe heaven and CNH.
President Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar to help boost exports, and is counting on the Federal Reserve to help make that happen. But the central bank’s chairman, Jerome Powell, has made clear it’s not his job.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 6.85980 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 6.85170. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 6.87757, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 6.88724.
USD CHF
USD traded higher against CHF and closed at 0.9764.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.97432, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.97225. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.97793, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.97947.
USD CAD
USD traded higher against CAD and closed at 1.3099.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30715, and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30440. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.31142, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31294.
Major Economic Events of the Day
The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, released by Market, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private manufacturing sector companies.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.6963.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), as was widely expected, decided to cut interest rates for the second month in a row to a historic low level of 1.0% at its July monetary policy meeting held this Tuesday.
The decision was on expected lines and hence, did little to prompt any fresh selling around the Australian Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair holding steady above mid-0.6900s.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69344 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69057. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70132, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70633.
Major Economic Events of the Day
Mark Carney is Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Monetary Policy Committee, Financial Policy Committee and the Board of the Prudential Regulation Authority. His appointment as Governor was approved by Her Majesty the Queen on 26 November 2012. The Governor joined the Bank on 1 July 2013.
Philip Lowe replaced Glenn Stevens as governor of Australia’s central bank. Lowe was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, a position he held since February 2012.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
GBP USD
GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2527.
GBP/USD - Charts Suggest the 2019 Low Is Vulnerable.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
Broke the Quarter Support and Month Support.
Series of Lower Lows and Lower Highs.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.24759 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24252. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.25822, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.26378.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.779.
EUR/JPY: Scope for Retesting 120.82.
D1 and H4 200 EMA Heads to south.
Broke D1 Ib towards the down side.
It's in range but projects towards the down side.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.596 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 121.414. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.943, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 122.108.
Major Economic Events of the Day
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1208.
EUR is expected to trade sideways, likely within a 1.1190/1.1230 range.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.11943 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11810. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12198, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12320.
AUD USD
AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6926.
AUD/USD - Edges Lower After Weak Consumer Confidence
Bears Seem Confident Ahead Of Fed
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69059 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.68858. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.69604, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.69948.
GBP NZD
GBP traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.8856.
Overnight NZD was struck by a massive selling order. It was almost 34 pips in Asian session.
UK Manufacturing Production today
We can see that the expected 2.1 is way lot better than previous –3.9
if we have a positive tone from GBP then the Technical and fundamental bounce from the lows will be supported.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.88115 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.87673. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.88989, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.89421.
Major Economic Events of the Day
CAD: BOC Tone On Wed Likely A Bit More Optimistic Than Markets Assuming – CIBC
“While not a stunner for markets, the tone will tend to be a bit more optimistic than what markets are now assuming.”
The Consumer Price Index is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy. Powell's prepared remarks are published ahead of the appearance on Capitol Hill.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
USD CAD
USD traded lower against CAD and closed at 1.3069.
Trades near the yearly-low (1.3037) even though the Bank of Canada (BoC) endorses a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and recent price action keeps the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate fails to break out of the monthly opening range.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.30436 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.30179. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.30931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.31169.
USD JPY
USD traded lower against JPY and closed at 108.487.
USD/JPY to find support from yields may face resistance above 109.00.
Its approaching resistance level and fundamentally the weakness of USD may drive the pair lower.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 108.053 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.618. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.726, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.964.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
When i make my money through iQ binary options, I never believed myself till I become who I am today. So join me now and trade with full assurance of making huge profits every four working days. No spammers, No scammers, No loosing %100 honest.Contact broker email.....daviddaniell366@gmail.com phone..+1 205-584-3978
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7022.
Maintain a bullish data; Staying Long is more favorable as compared to short. Daily chart has a break above close above 10 EMA. Targets may be 0.73, Daily High and Weekly High has also been breached over night. Looking for a break meaningfully above resistance earlier this week at 0.7036 and remain long AUDUSD targeting 0.7300.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69868 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69515. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70409, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70597.
USD JPY
USD traded higher against JPY and closed at 107.885.
3 - Bearish Days for the Dollar, Expectations are the Rate cut by end of July.
Bearish sentiment leads the currency against the basket of CHF and JPY.
Selling rallies may be a positive approach in trading the safe-heaven. The basket trades below Quarterly and Yearly Pivots.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 107.589 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 107.292. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 108.394, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 108.902.
Major Events of the Day
NZD: Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2)
Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services . The purchase power of NZD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative.
CNY: Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China studies the gross value of all goods and services produced by China. The indicator presents the pace at which the Chinese economy is growing or decreasing. As the Chinese economy has influence on the global economy, this economic event would have an impact on the Forex market. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
AUD USD
AUD traded higher against USD and closed at 0.7008.
Higher After Post-Aus Jobs Short-Covering
AUD/NZD rallied from a 4-month low at 1.0404 to 1.0435.
AUD/USD rally was short-covering as it doesn't change RBA expectations.
Resistance at 0.7045 while 10-day MA at 0.6991 is support.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.69948 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.69811. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.70233, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.70381.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 121.15.
JPY breaking its lows on daily candle as well as weekly candle.
The losers against the JPY are USD and EUR for now.
Pretty decent Harmonic patterns found on H4 charts that are in confluence with the Fundamental expects.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 121.038 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.926. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.371, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.592.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR AUD
EUR traded higher against AUD and closed at 1.5936.
Below 200 and 50 EMA.
Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
A Bearish/Resistance Trend line Formed.
Better option is to trade the strength of AUD and Remain short.
Alternatively
Go long if the pair breaches the Resistance Trend Line.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.58949 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.58541. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.60044, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.60731.
AUD JPY
AUD traded higher against JPY and closed at 75.898.
The pair is in a Weekly MBIB formation.
The pair slashed the Daily and Weekly Highs.
Making a triangle formation as well on the H4.
It’s above 50 and 200 EMA Breakout Levels Marked.
Target the breakout of 127 Extension on either side.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 75.563 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 75.227. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 76.109, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 76.319.
GBP AUD
GBP traded higher against AUD and closed at 1.773.
Perfect Example of Currency Strength Analysis.
Strength of AUD leads the pair to South.
The recent bearish News on the Pound supports the movement.
It has already breached through Weekly Lows and is below 200 and 50 EMA.
For now it's in a Daily Chart Mother bar inside Bar.
A break below will be trend continuation.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.76797 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.76296. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.77716, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.78134.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1220.
Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side.
Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Stalling in the Weekly Inside bar Pattern.
Break on either side may lead the trend.
The most important factor is the Fed rate cut.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1214 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1207. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1226, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1231.
AUD NZD
AUD traded lower against NZD and closed at 1.0401.
Below 200 and 50 EMA with the trend towards the down side.
Making a series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Broke the Weekly inside Bar Pattern to the down side.
Broke the low of Monthly candle,
Any Selling opportunity may be good option.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.0383 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.0376. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.0396, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.0402.
EUR JPY
EUR traded lower against JPY and closed at 120.77.
Bears in control as they broke the Weekly In sidebar and are to target the bearish ABCD Pattern, heading towards minimum 127 extension.
ECB steers the market towards more easing later in the year.
Quantitative Easing and Further rate cut by 10 Basis Points will weaken the EURO.
This rate cut may occur in September.
Until then EURO may remain sideways.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 120.94 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 120.86. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 121.10, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 121.20.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1208.
EUR/USD - Bears get clear signals ahead of ECB Meet.
We have break below close below of Daily Ib and Weekly Ib.
Bollinger bands facing towards south.
EUR/USD near-term downside limited to channel base 1.1158
Quiet Trading Expected Ahead Of Key Event Risks
ECB meeting Thursday and FOMC next week likely be catalysts for breakout.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12013 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11941. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.12204, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.12323.
GBP CHF
GBP traded higher against CHF and closed at 1.225.
The GBP/CHF continued to trade downwards, targeting the lower area located @1.2000.
Given that the currency pair is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour moving averages and has breached low of Monthly candle currently located in the 1.2285/1.2325 range, it is expected, that the British Pound could continue to depreciate against the Swiss Franc.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.22173 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.21845. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.22931, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.23361.
Fundamentals of the Day
1) Dollar rises as fears of a 50 point interest-rate cut fade
The U.S. dollar rose in afternoon trade on Friday as fears of a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut in July abated after the New York Federal Reserve walked back dovish comments from its president the prior day.
2) ECB Bank Lending Survey
The bank lending survey (BLS) for the euro area was launched in 2003. Its main objective is to enhance the Eurosystem’s knowledge of financing conditions in the euro area. The BLS provides input to the ECB Governing Council’s assessment of monetary and economic developments, on which it bases its monetary policy decisions.
3) FPC Meeting Minutes
Bank of England Financial Policy Committee Minutes is a detailed record of the FPC's most recent meeting. The report, which is released quarterly, provides in-depth insights into the financial conditions and decisions towards financial stability.
4) Tory Leadership Contest Result Announcement
The UK Conservative Party is set to announce the results of the vote for its new leadership. UK tories have been voting for weeks and the race has been trimmed to two candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt. The winner of the contest will become the new British Prime Minister, succeeding Theresa May at the Number 10 Downing Street office.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded lower against USD and closed at 1.1121.
Staying Tactically Bearish For 1.1050; A 50bp Fed Cut Would Be A Game Changer.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.12150 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.11543. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.14118, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.14725.
GBP USD
GBP traded higher against USD and closed at 1.2343.
To New 2019 Low As EU Affirms No Reopening Of Brexit Deal.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.25558 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.24902. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.27682, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.28338.
COT Report for Different Currencies this week
COT Report for Swisse
Swissie Net Commercials volume is above the 0 mark and in a positive side showing Net Long positions in strength.
Its a wise decision to remain Long on swissie.
COT Report for Canadian Dollar
Here In Canadian Dollar Net Commercials we see that from the 11th June- 18th June.
The Canadian Dollar has weighted towards a Net Commercial Short Position.
Means that Shorting Canadian Will be a wise decision, Alternatively Going Long on the retracements can also be entertained.
COT Report for US Dollar
US Dollar Net Commercial Positions Weighs towards the Net Short side.
It can be clearly seen that from the Year start , the commercials have been interested in shorting the US Dollar.
COT Report for GBP
After facing turbulance from 19 March to almost a month ,GBP Net commercials weigh towards the Long Net Positions.
GBP may show some reaction to the COT Report this week.
For Detailed analysis visit XtreamForex YouTube Channel.
EUR USD
EUR traded higher against USD and closed at 1.1107.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) today shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 1.1121 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 1.1117. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 1.1130 and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 1.1135.
AUD USD
AUD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6799.
AUD/USD down 0.5% in sympathy with a weakening Yuan as China fights back.
USD/CNY blasts through pivotal 7.00 as US-China trade tensions escalate.
Leads to risk aversion in Asia as risk/EM assets sold across board.
Havens JPY, XAU +0.5%, US-10 year yield hits 1.7890, lowest since Nov 9, 2016.
Risk barometer AUD/JPY -1% to a new 2019 low; RBA to sound more dovish Tues?
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6776 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6768. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6789, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6794.
NZD USD
NZD traded lower against USD and closed at 0.6540
A number of downward slopping trend lines indicate weakness of NZD/USD.
10-week old support-line grabs bears’ attention.
In addition to a two-day long descending trend-line, the NZD/USD pair’s sustained trading below a resistance-line stretched since late-July also portrays its weakness as the quote seesaws near 0.6510 during early Monday.
The Employment Change released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in New Zealand. Generally speaking, today a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZ dollar, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
According to the Analysis, pair is expected to find support at 0.6521 and a fall through could take it to the next support level of 0.6513. The pair is expected to find its first resistance at 0.6533, and a rise through could take it to the next resistance level of 0.6537.