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What is trading expectancy?
sevenstarfx
Posts: 33 ✭
Posts: 33 ✭
in General
Trading expectancy is a statistical measure used to assess the effectiveness of a trading strategy over a series of trades. It quantifies the average amount a trader can expect to win or lose per unit of risk on each trade placed according to the strategy.
The formula for trading expectancy is:
Expectancy=(AverageGainperTrade×WinRate)−(AverageLossperTrade×LossRate)
Where:
Average Gain per Trade: The average profit earned per winning trade.
Win Rate: The percentage of trades that result in a profit.
Average Loss per Trade: The average loss incurred per losing trade.
Loss Rate: The percentage of trades that result in a loss.
A positive expectancy indicates that, on average, the trading strategy is expected to generate profits over the long run. Conversely, a negative expectancy suggests that the strategy is likely to incur losses over time.
Traders use expectancy to evaluate the viability of their trading strategies and to compare different strategies. A high expectancy indicates a more robust and profitable strategy, while a low or negative expectancy may indicate the need for adjustments or a reassessment of the strategy's effectiveness.
It's important to note that while trading expectancy provides valuable insights into the profitability of a trading strategy, it does not guarantee future performance. Traders should consider other factors such as risk management, market conditions, and psychological factors when evaluating and implementing trading strategies.
The formula for trading expectancy is:
Expectancy=(AverageGainperTrade×WinRate)−(AverageLossperTrade×LossRate)
Where:
Average Gain per Trade: The average profit earned per winning trade.
Win Rate: The percentage of trades that result in a profit.
Average Loss per Trade: The average loss incurred per losing trade.
Loss Rate: The percentage of trades that result in a loss.
A positive expectancy indicates that, on average, the trading strategy is expected to generate profits over the long run. Conversely, a negative expectancy suggests that the strategy is likely to incur losses over time.
Traders use expectancy to evaluate the viability of their trading strategies and to compare different strategies. A high expectancy indicates a more robust and profitable strategy, while a low or negative expectancy may indicate the need for adjustments or a reassessment of the strategy's effectiveness.
It's important to note that while trading expectancy provides valuable insights into the profitability of a trading strategy, it does not guarantee future performance. Traders should consider other factors such as risk management, market conditions, and psychological factors when evaluating and implementing trading strategies.
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