Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMC’s gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables — the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspan’s risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.
United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And what’s more important, he doesn’t see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.
Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMC’s favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.
Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Bank’s views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.
Europe: ECB’s unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkey’s troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.
The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday)and the European Commission’s ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.
UK: UK markets are closed today for the UK’s latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with October’s EU leaders’ summit being the agreed on deadline. A “known unknown” wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This week’s data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).
Japan: The calendar doesn’t get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.
China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.
Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.
New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterday’s gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.
FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yen’s overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesn’t so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that “it’s just not the right time to talk right now.” USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – Expectations – expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June. US Consumer confidence – Expectations – Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. US Goods Trade Balance – Expectations – The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June. Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer overall, although it has continued to hold steady in a narrow range against the Yen. USDCAD dropped to its lowest level since June 6, at 1.2887, driven by reports that Canada is ready to make significant concessions on diary to secure a trade deal with the US. This is potentially good news as it raises the chances for Congress to approve the White House agreement with Mexico in the context of a revamped NAFTA deal. Elsewhere, EURUSD extended yesterday’s correction from the four-week peak at 1.1733, posting a 1.1674 low. AUDUSD fell to a two-day low at 0.7308, and Cable has seen a two-day low at 1.2854, with the Pound so far unaffected by news reports that the UK and the EU are likely to further push the deadline for a Brexit agreement to mid-November rather than October’s EU summit. USDJPY, in contrast to other Dollar pairs, has posted less than a 20 pip range so far in the Tokyo trading, defined by 111.13 and 111.31, which continues a phase of tight consolidative price action into a fourth consecutive session. EURJPY and other Yen crosses, meanwhile, have declined moderately. PBoC set the USDCNH reference at 6.8072, fractionally up on yesterday’s 6.8052.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp at 2.871%, pulling back from highs slightly over 2.85% yesterday. JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp at 0.089%, but also off earlier highs. Wall Street closed with marginal gains yesterday after the US500 pulled back from record highs over the 2900 mark, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.13% respectively amid optimism over U.S. growth after an improvement in consumer sentiment. Mainland China bourses are in the red, however, with investors remaining cautious despite reports that Canada is willing to make considerable concessions to secure a trade deal amid ongoing concerns over China-US trade prospects. As treasury yields are approaching 2.9% rate-sensitive shares start to feel the pressure. The Hang Seng moved sideways, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.47% and -0.33% respectively. US futures are moving higher, though while oil prices are down.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today US Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter. Canadian Current Account Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian current account balance for Q2 is expected, on the basis of consensus forecasts, to improve significantly from -19.5 bln to -15.2 bln. Usually, the more positive the better for the currency. Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%. Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: Treasury and JGB yields are little changed at 2.86% and 0.10% respectively, as stocks drifted during the Asian session after yesterday’s holiday in the US. Trade concerns and emerging market jitters remain in focus, with the difficult Canada and US talks, and Trump’s latest round of China tariffs high on the agenda. The latter could be announced as early as Thursday. Argentina and Turkey meanwhile are still struggling to regain investor confidence. Turkey’s central bank yesterday vowed to take action, as inflation hit 18%, sparking hopes that the long awaited rate hike will finally come. Argentina, meanwhile, launched fresh measures to stem the crisis. RBA left rates unchanged as expected, but estimated that the economy grew above trend in the first six months of the year and suggested inflation will pick up from 2019.
FX Update: The Dollar has traded generally firmer. EURUSD has dipped back under 1.1600, while the Cable has fallen to a one-week low of 1.2843, extending the Pound-driven losses of yesterday after the EU’s Brexit negotiator Barnier all-but rejected the British government’s proposed plan for a new trading deal. The Sterling has also posted fresh lows against the Euro and other currencies. USDJPY has lifted to a three-session high of 111.37, flipping back above the midway mark of the recent range, while AUDJPY, which was a big loser yesterday, has bounced back amid a 1%-plus rally in Chinese equity markets. The Australian Dollar, which has been correlating strongly with Chinese stocks, outperformed the US Dollar, posting a two-session high at 0.7235. Overall, market conditions have been calm today, though there a feeling that a storm is bearing down. Concerns remain about vulnerable foreign-currency indebted emerging market countries, while President Trump looks set to make a big ratchet up in the Sino-US trade war with the imposition of tariff hikes on a further $200 bln of Chinese imports, which, unless he has a sudden change of heart, could happen as soon as Thursday. Canada-US talks on trade will resume tomorrow.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Construction PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to dip to 55.0, following July’s 55.8. UK Inflation Report Hearings – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. RBA Gov Lowe Speech US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – It is estimated to slip to 58.0 in August, from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, with trade woes and as the EM crisis saw market pressure shifting from currencies to stocks. IMF reported progress in talks with Argentina but contagion fears continue to weigh on sentiment also in developed markets. Treasury yields still backed up from overnight lows and are up 0.3 bp on the day at 2.909%, while 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to 0.104%. Australia’s 10-year yields jumped more than 4 bp after higher than expected GDP numbers. US stock futures are moving down Oil prices are also slightly lower and the WTI future is trading at USD 69.38 per barrel.
FX Update: The Dollar majors are near net unchanged on the day so far, into the arrival of the London interbank market, while emerging market currencies have enjoyed some reprieve. EURUSD has been holding near to 1.1600 after recouping from the 2-week low that was seen yesterday at 1.1530, with reports of good selling interest above 1.1600 helping cap the pairing. The Yen underwent a bout of weakness before firming back. USDJPY lifted to a 111.71 high earlier in Tokyo, before ebbing back under 111.50. In news out of Japan today, BoJ is reportedly happy with its recent tweaks to its yield curve control policy, which allows for greater flexibility, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. AUDJPY, a cross which came under heavy pressure last week, correlating with Chinese stock markets, lifted to a three-session high today, aided by strong Q2 GDP data out of Australia (which showed the best annual growth rate, at 3.4% y/y, since Q3 2012). The cross, like USDJPY, has fallen back from the highs as the Yen picked up some support amid a backdrop of fragile stock market sentiment in Asia and globally. The threat of a marked escalation in the Sino-US trade war continues to hang over markets, while most expect more unravelling in the nascent emerging market currency crisis.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Services PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to rise to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading. Eurozone Services PMI – Expectations – They are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4. Canadian Trade Balance & Labor Productivity – Expectations – The July trade report is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1. BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – No change to the current 1.50% rate setting, is expected, as BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.” Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields are little changed at 2.902%, JGB yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.100%. BoJ boosted buying five 10-year bonds in a bid to offset a cut in frequency of operations this month, which ties in with the bank’s intention not to make major changes after the last policy tweak and dampen speculation that it wants to taper at a faster pace. BoJ Board member Kataoka criticized the forward guidance and suggested the bank should have specified inflation rates, the output gap or inflation expectations. At the same time, he took fault with the added flexibility on the 10-year yield as it made the zero percent target unclear. Stock markets meanwhile remained under pressure amid ongoing emerging market concerns. A stronger Yen and a powerful earthquake added pressure on Japanese markets, as did a tumble in US tech stocks. Some markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, managed modest gains, but most markets are firmly in negative territory. US Futures are also down, as are oil prices, with the WTI future trading at USD 68.59 per barrel.
FX Action:USDJPY and especially Yen crosses are softer, amid a risk-off themed session in pre-Europe trading in Asia and concerns about emerging market fragility and the next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Tech sector underperformance and reports of a powerful earthquake in Japan have also been in the mix. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.17, down from a peak at 111.75, and subsequently settling above 111.30. The biggest mover, once again, has been the AUDJPY cross, which lost nearly 0.5% in making a 79.81 low and returning focus on the 22-month low that was seen on Monday at 79.52. BoJ ultra-dove Kataoka criticized the recent policy tweak by the central bank, to allow greater flexibility in its yield curve control, arguing that it made the zero percent target unclear while calling for additional monetary stimulus. His remarks had little impact on the Yen.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Expectations – It is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Jobless claims – Expectations – ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.0 in August, after dipping to 55.7 in July. Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 2k to 215k in the week ended September 1, following a 213k reading in the week of August 25. Canadian Building permits – Expectations – Building permits values are projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June. Crude Oil Inventories Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.875%, slightly down from overnight heights, 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.098%. Asian stocks headed further south on route for the worst week since March. Tech stock earnings, trade jitters and emerging market risks remain in focus and continue to weigh on confidence although at least emerging market stocks seemed somewhat steadier albeit in a bearish market. Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.59% and -0.93% respectively, the Hang Seng lost -0.78% and the CSI 300 is down -0.105, after shedding early gains. US futures are heading south and oil prices are little changed with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 67.83 per barrel.
FX Action: USDJPY and AUDJPY have dropped further today, the former clipping a 16-day low at 110.38 and the latter falling by over 0.5% on route to posting fresh 22-month lows. The story remains the same, with the Yen being underpinned by safe haven demand and the Aussie Dollar underperforming due to Australia’s exposure to China, which looks set to find the US hiking tariff rates on another $200 bln worth of its exports. There are also reports that Trump is thinking of opening up a new front in his trade war with Japan. The general view seems to be that the US will proceed with ratcheting-up the trade war, with the Trump administration firmly in the belief that it is winning. Emerging market stress and tech sector weakness are also in the mix, while today’s US jobs report, on a brighter note, is expected to be strong.
* Euro area real GDP – Expectations – Consensus forecast is that it will be the same as the preliminary figure.
* US Average Hourly Earnings & Nonfarm Payrolls– Expectations – Hourly earnings is an indicator of labor cost inflation and labor market tightness. Consensus forecast for August expects it to remain at 2.7%, same as last month. Nonfarm payrolls measures the number of new jobs created and is expected to grow by 191k compared to 157k last month.
* Canadian Unemployment and Employment – Expectations – A small net change in employment is expected for August, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased by 0.1%, to 5.9% in August.
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B] Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex [/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Tariff concerns continued to rattle equity markets, especially after President Trump surprised with an announcement he was readying an additional $267 bln in levies on Chinese goods. Many key stock indexes had their worst week in months and are likely to remain unsettled. Stocks and bonds around the world will remain sensitive to trade tensions, along with ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Also, economic data will be closely monitored for signs of growth and price impacts. Central bank meetings include the ECB, BoE, and Turkey. No surprises are expected from ECB and BoE. There will be a lot of interest in Turkey’s decision and whether it will hike rates.
United States: US markets posted some hefty losses last week. As for this week’s data, CPI and retail sales are the highlight. The stronger than expected 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings in the August jobs report, and the concomitant acceleration in the pace of growth to 2.9% y/y, a new cycle high and the fastest since May 2009, will put the focus on August CPI. Looking ahead, y/y gains are expected in headline inflation moderating and stabilising at lower levels over coming months while gains in core prices should remain around 2.4% over the remainder of the year. That should keep the Fed on a gradual trajectory. August retail sales are forecast rising 0.4%, with a 0.6% gain in ex-auto sales. Other data this week includes the preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading, which should move up to 97.0, from a 7-month low of 96.2 in August. The August drop reflected a decline in the current conditions index and the expectations component, and in September both components are likely to get improved. In spite of the August drop, the measure continues to oscillate just below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March. August trade prices will be of interest. Tariffs will likely depress trade prices going forward despite upward domestic price pressure, as producers absorb some of the tax impact. Meanwhile, headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%.
Fedspeak will be of interest. Several voting Committee members will take to the podium. And while all will support the likelihood for a tightening later this month, their outlooks on the economy down the road will be scrutinized.
Canada: The ongoing NAFTA talks this week, will be in focus. Stronger than expected reports could add to some angst over BoC, after Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins said in her economic update last Thursday that the Governing Council discussed whether the “gradual approach” remains appropriate. As for the data, August housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to 220.0k from 206.3k in July. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is seen climbing to 87.0% in Q2 from 86.1% in Q1, as real GDP surged 2.9% in Q2 (q/q, saar) after running at a tame 1.4% in Q1. The national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report for Q2 (Friday) will provide the Q2 household debt ratio. The July new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June, joining other evidence that Canada’s housing market has stabilized after contracting early this year. The Teranet HPI for August is due Wednesday.
Europe: The main focus this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting. Official rates are likely to be left untouched and Draghi is expected to confirm the guidance on rates, which foresees no change through the summer of next year. That leaves the focus on QE and the future of net asset purchases. The data calendar is highlighted by German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), were a slight improvement to -12.5 is expected with the September number, versus -13.7 in August. This would still mean that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, and confirm the prevailing view that downside risks are becoming more visible even if current growth trends remain robust. The rest of the week’s calendar features mainly final readings for August inflation numbers, which are not expected to bring major surprises. The Spanish HICP (Wednesday) should be confirmed at 2.2% y/y, German and French readings (Thursday) at 2.0% and 2.6% respectively and the Italian number (Friday) at 1.7% y/y. The Italian number is still held back by positive base effects from changes to education charges last year, but these will fall out of the equation soon.
The Eurozone also has July trade (Friday) and production (Wednesday) data, and after the mixed German and French numbers, we are looking for a small change of 0.1% m/m in industrial production and a narrowing in the trade surplus. The latter remains very high compared to periods ahead of the financial crisis, and leaves the EU and Germany, in particular, vulnerable to charges of imbalances and an undue focus on exports.
UK: Attention will remain on Brexit negotiations, along with the September BoE MPC meeting (to be announced Thursday) and a slew of data releases that are highlighted by the second estimate Q2 GDP, July production and trade figures (all due Monday), and the latest labor market report covering July and August (Tuesday). The BoE’s policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.
As for the data, Q2 GDP is expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, and both July industrial and manufacturing production to expand by 0.4% m/m, which would match the respective growth rates of the month prior. The labor report is anticipated to show a slight tick higher in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from the multi-decade low rate of 4.0%, with average earnings unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.7% y/y in the respective with-bonus and ex-bonus figures in the three months to July.
Japan: The July tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is seen posting a 0.2% rebound after falling 0.5% in June. The Q3 BSI large all industry index (Wednesday) is predicted rising 1.0 after tumbling 5.3 points to -2.0 in Q2. July machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to rise 5.0% m/m versus the prior 8.8% decline. August PPI (Thursday) likely edged up to a 3.2% y/y pace from 3.1%. Revised July industrial production is due Friday.
China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.
Australia: A thin docket is highlighted by August employment (Thursday) which is expected to rise 10.0k after the 3.9k decline in July. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.3% in August.
FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields have corrected some of yesterday’s gains that saw the 2-year hitting a decade high with investors increasingly pricing in 2 more rate hikes by year end. A fresh bout of risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions added support to core bond markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp at 2.968%, while 10-year JGB yields declined -1.0 bp to 0.095%. Stocks meanwhile are heading for their 10th day of losses in Asia, as China told WTO that it wants to impose USD 7 bln a year in sanctions on the US in retaliation for the US non-compliance with a ruling on US dumping duties. Trump, on the other end, stressed again that the US will be taking a tough stance on China. The MSCIs index of emerging market shares meanwhile has fallen to the lowest levels since May 2017, indicating that EM risks also continue to linger, with tomorrow’s central bank decision in Turkey in view. Across Asia, stocks are mostly lower, with Topix and Nikkei losing -0.55% and -0.39%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -0.45% and -0.62% respectively. The ASX lost -0.12% and US Futures are also lower, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday, as Apple led technology stocks and a surge in Oil prices underpinned energy producers. Oil prices are slightly below overnight highs over USD 70 per barrel, as hurricane Florence threatened east coast gasoline markets and in the midst of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
FX Update: Both the Dollar and the Yen have firmed up against most other currencies amid a backdrop of risk aversion in Asia, with the Japanese currency marginally outperforming the US currency, seeing USDJPY nudge lower, after initially posting a 1-week high in early Asia Pacific dealings at 111.65, with the pair then ebbing to the 111.45-50 area. The price was matched by EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses, reflecting a modest pick-up in safe demand for the Japanese currency. Moreover, stock markets in Asia headed south amid ratcheting verbal threats between the US and China on trade and sanctions (US threatening sanctions over treatment of Uighur people, Beijing threatening sanctions on US over trade dumping duties). This situation has offset a signal from Canada that it is ready to make concessions to the US that may lead to a breakthrough in the NAFTA renegotiation (which helped lift the USA500 to a closing gain of 0.4% yesterday on Wall Street).
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today US PPI and Core – Expectations – The headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%. The y/y gain in the headline index should be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in July, while the core index should hold steady at 2.7% y/y. Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – The crude oil inventories expected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels. Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund future opened at 159.71, versus a close of 159.63 on Wednesday. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.402%, while Treasury and JGB yields are still up 0.2 bp, but down from earlier highs. A rebound in Asian stock markets, on hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks, put pressure on core bonds, but the Chinese markets quickly erased much of their early gains, and in Europe fresh Italy jitters, amid reports that Finance Minister Tria threatens to resign over budget talks, are adding support to Bunds in opening trade. US futures are heading south after a closing narrowly mixed on Wednesday. There is some speculation that Trump may be changing gears with increased efforts behind the scenes to reach deals in orders to win support, but investors remain cautious. EM markets also remain in focus, as Turkey’s central bank meets, amid ongoing political pressure not to hike rates too much, if not at all. Oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 70 per barrel and are trading at USD 69.86. Released at the start of the session, German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y as expected, but the focus is on ECB and BOE meetings today. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, but Draghi is also likely to confirm the planned phasing out of QE, while downward revisions to growth projections and unchanged cautious guidance on rates will offer an opportunity to wrap the changes in a dovish leaning presser.
FX Update: Yen weakness has been the dominant theme, albeit moderate, during the pre-London open session in Asia, while the Dollar has consolidated losses seen yesterday. USDJPY lifted, as the Japanese currency saw some more of its safe haven premium unwind, following yesterday’s news of the US invitation to senior Chinese officials to restart trade talks. This comes, in true Trumpian fashion, with the US having loaded the gun with tariff hikes on a further $200 bln worth of Chinese imports and threatening to hike tariffs on the remaining $267 bln of imports. USDJPY has lifted back to the mid-111.0s, while EURJPY, AUDJPY and other Yen crosses have concurrently firmed up. Most stock markets in Asia have rallied. EURUSD, after printing a one-week high yesterday at 1.1650 (following news of the US invitation), has drifted to around the 1.1620 mark. The biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates has been AUDJPY and CHFJPY, with both showing 0.3% gains.
* BOE Monetary Policy & Bank Rate – Expectations – BoE’s September policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.
* ECB Press Conference & Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is widely expected to leave the guidance on rates untouched and confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. Back in June, Draghi said that ECB anticipates to cut back net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and phase out purchases in December. Focus will also be on the details on planned tweaks to the re-investment strategy, which will likely bring more flexibility for ECB as redemptions start to become more important.
* US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is forecast rising to 0.2% m/m for both overall and core prices.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B] Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex [/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Update: The Dollar has been holding mostly narrow ranges against most other currencies, though USDJPY showed a fresh six-week high at 112.07 during early the Tokyo session before settling around the 111.80 mark. Other Yen crosses also registered new highs, before settling, with the Japanese currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market direction. The USD index (DXY) has remained broadly unchanged on the day, at 94.50, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the US CPI release. EURUSD is also near net unchanged heading into the London interbank open, at 1.1695, holding just below yesterday’s two-week peak of 1.1701. Cable has similarly held steady near yesterday’s highs. US data releases are up today, including retail sales and industrial production, with risks to the upside.
Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.968%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.2 bp at 0.103%, while stock markets moved broadly higher during the Asian session, after a technology-led rise in US markets yesterday. Cautious central banks in Europe, hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks and a larger-than-expected rate hike in Turkey all make for a positive backdrop to sentiment as the week draws to a close. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.91% and -0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.87% and the CSI 300 is up 0.15%, Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are down -0.04% and -0.41% though after Trump cast some doubts over reports of a new round of talks with China and the investment slowdown worsened according to latest data, indicating that policies intended to boost investment growth have not made and impact yet. U.S. futures are moving higher in tandem with FTSE 100 futures and oil prices are slightly higher with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.83 per barrel.
* US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.
* US Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production Indices – Expectations – Both indices are expected to show the improvement in US macroeconomic developments over the past weeks, with Capacity Utilisation expected to stand at 78.2%, compared to 78.1% in July. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.3%, * compared to 0.1% last month. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Sentiment is expected to increase, again given the improvement in US macroeconomic conditions, to 96.6 compared to 96.2 in July.
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL] [B] Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex [/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The trade war appears to be ratcheting up once again amid contradictory signals from the Trump administration. Last week a WSJ story suggested that the Chinese had been invited back to the negotiating table by a trade team headed by the more moderate Mnuchin, though Trump later tweeted that there wasn’t any pressure to make a deal with China. Wall Street responded bullishly to the apparent olive branch and shrugged off the tweet on balance, even after Trump indicated his advisors would be instructed to proceed with the $200 bln in tariffs. This has “increased tail risk” according to JP Morgan analysis in terms of the range of possible outcomes, which will dictate just how much growth may slow, if implemented, and inflation may increase – from nominal changes to significant swings. Fed policy is seen remaining on track in the meantime, as the two effects tend to cancel each other out and US employment and inflation mandates continue to punch in roughly on target.
United States: The US economy remains firm hurtling toward the end of Q3 after a strong 4.2% GDP growth pace in Q2. All survey participants are forecasting another quarter-point tightening in December, too, and most recent Fedspeak has been comfortable with quarterly hikes heading into 2019 as well.
The US economic calendar kicks off with an update on the Empire State index, seen declining to 22.0 in September (Monday), from a 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The NAHB housing market index is forecast (Tuesday) to rise to 68 in September from 67 in August. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), and along with housing starts are expected to rise 4.5% in August, to a 1.220 mln rate, after a 0.9% gain to 1.168 mln in July. August building permits are estimated to rise 0.9% to 1.315 mln, following a similar gain in July. The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -$103.3 bln in Q2 (Wednesday), from -$124.1 bln in Q1 reflecting strength in exports but a flat import figure. The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September (Thursday), from a 2-year low of 11.9 and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 8k to 212k in the week ended September 15, following a 204k reading in the week of September 8-lowest since December 1969. Existing home sales are anticipated to rebound 1.1% in August to a 5.40 mln pace (Thursday), after declines in the prior four months. Sales declined 6.6% in Q2, after a 6.1% drop in Q1, amid lopsided hurricane rebuilding comparisons the year prior. And the leading economic index is expected to rise 0.5% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.5% increase in June.
Canada: Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to expand 1.0% in July after the 1.1% gain in June. CPI (Friday) is projected to be flat (0.0%) in August (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% surge in July, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.9% in August from 3.0% y/y in July. The three core measures are expected to remain near a 2.0% annual growth pace in August. Retail sales (Friday)are seen rising 0.5% in July after the 0.2% decline in June. Retail sales excluding autos are projected to expand 0.6% in July following the 0.1% dip in June. Existing homes sales for August are expected on Monday. The ADP employment survey is due Thursday. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland is expected to return to Washington to resume high level NAFTA talks, which could reach a provisional framework.
Europe: Last week, ECB confirmed the tapering of net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and still intends to phase out QE by year end, but with ECB maintaining its stock for now and redemptions becoming more important, comments from ECB President Draghi on Wednesday are likely to stress again that the central bank is still maintaining a still very expansionary policy. Meanwhile, the data calendar focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for September (Friday). The German ZEW came in a tad higher than expected, but German orders numbers were pretty dismal and the geopolitical risk backdrop has not improved significantly. Against that background Eurozone readings are expected to slightly change from the August round with growth and job creation ongoing but slowing down as respondents increasingly note the uncertainties surrounding the longer term outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and the services reading is expected to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Final August Eurozone HICP (Monday) inflation meanwhile is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.0% y/y, but comes with a slight bias to the downside, after some downward revisions to national data.
UK: Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue, and will also no doubt continue to be a source of turbulence for sterling markets. Talks will continue this week. The EU’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Brexit at a summit in Salzburg this Thursday, where they are expected to agree to hold an extraordinary meeting in November to sign off on a deal on future relations. Another key event to watch will be the Conservative Party conference, which will take place from September 20 to October 3. The data calendar will be highlighted by August inflation data (Wednesday) and August retail sales numbers (Thursday). The headline CPI is anticipated to ebb back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, with core prices seen similarly nudging lower, to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. As for retail sales, a 0.2% m/m contraction in August should be reported, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.
Japan: BoJ announces policy on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. The Bank will likely leave its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and leave YCC (yield curve control), which guides the 10-year JGB around 0%, in place. The data calendar doesn’t kick off until Wednesday, when the August trade report is due. August national CPI (Friday) is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% overall, and at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% on a core basis. The July all-industry index is also due Friday.
China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.
Australia: Another sparse docket is highlighted by the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent discusses “Money Creation” at the Reserve Bank’s Topical Talk Event for Educators. The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to decline 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% drop in Q1.
New Zealand: GDP (Thursday) is projected to expand at a 0.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q1. The current account (Wednesday) is seen moving to a -NZ$1.0 bln deficit in Q2 from the NZ$0.2 bln surplus in Q1.
FX News Today FX Update: Forex and stock markets are taking the as-expected news of Trump’s trade war escalation in their stride. The tariffs will start at 10% from next Monday before rising to 25% on January 1. Trump has also threatened to tariff the remaining $267 bln worth of Chinese imports into the US if Beijing retaliates, which looks likely to be the case. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.66, the lowest level seen since last Thursday, before recouping to the 112.00 level, putting the pair at net firmer levels on the day. Even the AUDJPY cross, which has proven to be sensitive to the worsening Sino-US trade war, rebounded out of a three-session low to net higher levels on the day.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.994%, after pulling back from levels above 3% yesterday. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.1 bp at 0.107% after coming back from yesterday’s holiday. Japanese markets rallied in catch up trade and Topix and Nikkei gained 1.90% and 1.63% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.76%, and while Chinese equities initially seemed to shrug off the confirmation of additional Trump tariffs worth USD 200 bln, they have now pared early gains and are little changed – the Hang Seng up 0.01%, and the Shanghai Comp down -0.04%. PBOC’s alarm bells are clearly ringing louder and the bank has injected 200 bln Yuan with reverse repos today, on top of MLF operations that added 265 bln of new one year loans. Bloomberg highlighted looming challenges in the form of quarter end cash demand, and huge maturities in Q4 for MLF loans and corporate debt. At the same time, some feel that after the sharp correction in Chinese equities and with mid-term elections looming for Trump, a sustained recovery for Chinese stocks may be on the horizon, especially since markets do not appear to have priced in much of a risk-fallout for US equities. US stock futures are heading south today and oil prices are down with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.54 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Japan Merchandise Trade Balance – Expectations – This important figure for the Japanese economy usually has a large impact on the currency. August’s trade balance is expected to deteriorate to YEN-468Bln, compared to YEN-231.9Bln in July, despite an expected increase in exports. Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Expectations – Sales in Canada are expected to have slowed to 1.0% m/m in July, from 1.1% in June. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today European Outlook: Global yields continue to trend higher as stock markets shrug off the latest escalation of the US-Sino trade spat. 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.480% in early trade, the 2-year is up 0.4 bp at -0.531%. 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from yesterday’s highs, but remains above the 3% mark at 3.0465% and 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.112% as stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a strong close in Asia overnight. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher with US futures ahead of key inflation data for the UK today, which is expected to show the headline rate falling back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. The data calendar also has Eurozone current account data and a German 10-year Bund auction.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp, but are still holding above the 3% mark at 3.05%. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.112%, despite the BoJ decision that, as expected, left policy unchanged. Yields remain elevated as stock markets extend their rally and investors look past the latest round of the US-Sino trade spat that saw Beijing announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 60 bln of US goods and Trump threatening duties on virtually all imports. China’s Premier Li Keqiang said he won’t let the currency devalue to stimulate exports. With traders buying into the belief that a negotiated solution will be found eventually, Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.53% and 1.33% respectively despite the uptick in yields. The CSI 300 is up 1.54%, after already rising more than 2% yesterday, and the Hang Seng gained 1.25%. US stock futures are narrowly mixed, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading just under USD 70 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today UK Core Consumer Price Index – Expectations –Inflationary pressures are expected to have eased a bit in the UK and consensus forecasts estimate inflation to stand at 1.8% y/y, versus 1.9% y/y. US Housing Starts and Building Permits- Expectations – Housing starts should continue to move upwards according to consensus forecasts, while building permits are expected to remain at the same level as last month. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 3.061% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.110%. Yields have come quite a way over the past week and Treasury yields are still holding above the 3% mark, but the stock market rally started to stutter during the Asian session with indices turning mixed. The Dow Jones still managed a solid gain yesterday, but the NASDAQ closed slightly lower and in Asia stocks drifted. Japanese indices traded near three-month highs, but at these levels it seems investors are getting cautious as trade concerns continue to cloud over the outlook. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.045 and -0.12% respectively. It would not be the first time that Chinese indices rebound late in session, but it seems for now markets are consolidating and waiting for further news. US futures are also narrowly mixed, oil prices are higher and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel.
FX Action: USDJPY has drifted lower, posting a two-day low at 112.07 in a moderate move driven by a softer Dollar. Risk appetite has continued to hold up with Asian stock markets gaining, albeit modestly, for the most part, and the main Chinese indexes lifting out of negative territory in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. Japanese PM Abe won a leadership challenge by a landslide, as expected, which puts him on track to becoming Japan’s longest serving prime minister. In the bigger view, USDJPY is currently trading in the upper reaches of a broadly sideways range that’s been unfolding for some 10 weeks now. Great odds have been placed for a sustained move downward rather than a sustained move upward as China looks to be digging for trade war escalation (at least until after the midterm elections in the US), which could lead to an increased safe haven premium being put on the Yen. USDJPY has resistance at 112.44-45, and support at 111.77-80.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today SNB Rate & Monetary Policy – Expectations – The SNB is widely expected to maintain its expansionary policy, with the deposit rate to be left -0.75% and the 3-month Libor range Libor at -1.25% to -0.25%. The central bank is also expected to reiterate that it will “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”. UK Retail Sales – Expectations – The Retail sales are anticipated a 0.2% m/m contraction in August, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September, from a 2-year low of 11.9. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a record close on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is back after robust US data yesterday added to hopes that the fallout from the latest round of US-China tariffs can be contained and that there will eventually be deals on trade and Brexit, despite little progress at the informal EU summit yesterday. Improvements in emerging market assets have also helped to underpin confidence with investors buying back into the rout. 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.3 bp to 3.076%, 10 year JGB yields jumped 1.6 bp to 0.125% and 30-year yields rose 4.4 bp as BoJ cut bond purchases. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.01% and 1.06% respectively underpinned by a weaker Yen, the Hang Seng has gained 1.13% so far and the CSI 300 is up 1.80%. US stock futures are equally broadly higher, Oil prices are slightly lower and the November WTI future is trading at USD 70.25 per barrel. Today’s calendar includes Eurozone PMI readings as well as public finance data for the UK.
FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to a fresh two-month high at 112.80 amid a backdrop of a coursing risk-on theme in global markets. The USA30 and USA500 hit record highs yesterday, and Asian stocks have rallied robustly across the board. JP225 hit a 4-month high, and the Shanghai Composite a two-week high, with both showing gains of 1% or more. Expectations for China to turn the fiscal stimulus tap, among other measures, have been helping underpin sentiment in Asia, while the unexpectedly low starting tariff rate of 10% in Trump’s latest move on Chinese imports this week, along with tech sector exemptions, have helped buoy sentiment Global fundamentals are otherwise solid, despite the threat from the trade war escalation (with Beijing not expected to negotiate until after the mid-term elections in the US).
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Sep. PMI – Expectations – The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and expect the services reading to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Canada CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to hold steady in August after the 0.5% surge in July. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.9% y/y pace in August, easing slightly from the 3.0% pace in July that was the top of BoC’s 1-3% target range. Canada retail sales values are expected to rise 0.5% in July after the 0.2% drop in June.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action: USDJPY posted a two-month high of 112.98 during the Tokyo morning session, which was the product of a bout of general Yen selling capped out in the face of Japanese exporter offers. The release of the minutes of the recent BoJ meeting had little impact, nor did a speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda, who said it will take longer than expected to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. China said talks with the US cannot take place under threats and pressure, while the US approved of a $330 mln arms sale to Taiwan, which is sure to ruffle feathers in Beijing.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields climbed 0.8 bp to 2.096%, and JGB yields picked up 0.4 bp to 0.123%, after returning from holiday. There were no real surprises in the BoJ minutes from the July meeting and the JGB curve continues to steepen. Australia’s 10-year bond jumped 5.1 bp amid stop selling after the 10-year future broke contract lows and following a pick up in Treasury yields yesterday. Chinese 10-year rates meanwhile declined. Stock markets also traded mixed, as Japan and China returned from holiday. Trade concerns remained high on the agenda as China warned that it won’t agree to trade talks unless the US stops threatening additional tariffs. US political developments also clouded over confidence. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.15% respectively and CSI lost -1.08%, while US futures are marginally lower. Oil prices rose further above the USD 72 per barrel mark.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today US Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The level of consumer confidence is usually a leading indicator of consumer spending. Expectations are that the Confidence Index will be less than last month’s but will remain high nonetheless. S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index – Expectations – Housing prices are an important indicator given that rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. Expectations are that the Index will grow by 6.2% y/y compared to 6.3% last month Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action: USDJPY traded above 113.00 for the first time since mid July, posting a high at 113.02, before settling to a narrow range just under the figure. AUDJPY concurrently posted a three-session high and while EURJPY also lifted, the cross remained just off recent five-month highs. Buoyant stock markets have kept the Yen on a softening path. China equities recorded gains, with the Shanghai Composite showing a 1.3% gain in the first hour of trading in the PM session, posting an eight-week high earlier on the day. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) index is showing a 0.4% advance, although also off its highs. Chinese equities were lifted by news that MSCI is considering quadrupling the weighting of Chinese big-caps in its global benchmarks.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 3.093%, 10-year JGB yields pulled back -0.6 bp to 0.117%. Yields remain at high level ahead of the Fed decision today and as global central banks continue to reign in stimulus. Asian stock markets meanwhile moved mostly higher, although Japanese indices traded mixed with the Topix retreating from its highest level in almost eight months. Hong Kong returned from holiday and rallied in catch up trade, while Chinese markets got a boost from reports that MSCI is considering to lift the weight of shares in its global indexes. US President Trump told the UN that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable”. Meanwhile the Asian Development Bank warned that the US-China trade war is dimming Asia’s growth outlook for next year. The Topix is down -0.26%, against a 0.30% gain in the Nikkei. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.83% and 1.84% respectively, the ASX is little changed at +0.02%. U.S. futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are slightly lower, but the front end Nymex future continues to trade above USD 72 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – monetary policy decisions are much awaited as they impact all aspects of the monetary section of the economy. Today, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25%. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action: Both the Dollar and the Yen have risen against most other currencies, with the Japanese currency outperforming its North American counterpart. This comes amid a risk-off backdrop, with Asian stock markets having come under pressure following a firm start. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1% at its close, while the Shanghai Composite reversed out of an AM-session gain, and is presently at its lows and showing a 0.6% loss in the second hour of the PM session. EURUSD and EURJPY have ebbed to respective one-week lows of 1.1691 and 131.67. USDJPY edged out a three-day low at 112.60, while EURJPY posted a one-week low at 131.77. AUDJPY, which has been the biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates, also traded at one-week lows with a loss of 0.5%. Focus will now fall on Italy. There have been reports that a Cabinet meeting is scheduled today to finalize the Economic and Financial Document after being postponed “due to new complications” as the coalition government struggles to find common ground over the budget. This issue, if unresolved, has the potential to send the Euro sharply lower.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields lost earlier gains and are down 0.9 bp at 3.039%, 10-year JGB yields declined -0.3 bp to 0.110% and bonds were generally sought as stock markets declined. Wall Street turned negative late in the session following the FOMC meeting, which hiked rates as expected and removed the “accommodative” language. At the same time the “neutral” rate was lifted and Fed continues to pencil in another move this year, and three more for 2019, with Powell saying that Fed could raise rates past the neutral level. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.81% and -0.54% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -0.27% and -0.32% and the ASX lost -0.19% so far. US stock futures are trying to move higher though, indicating that investors will quickly recover from the Fed statement that is, in some ways, ambiguous for the markets. Oil prices are higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 72.34 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today US Jobless Claims – Expectations – Jobless claims are expected to increase, with consensus forecasts putting the number of new claimants at 210,000 compared to 201,000 last month. GDP Price Index – Expectations – The GDP Price Index is a broader index than the CPI, with different weights, and also provides a different view of price developments in the economy. Consensus Forecasts suggest that prices will have increased by 3.0% in Q2, compared to 3.2% in Q1. Personal Consumption Expenditures – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation index is expected to increase by 1.9% in Q2, same as last quarter, with the core index expected to increase by 2%. Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation – Expectations – Durable Goods orders are expected to have increased by 0.5% in August, compared to 0.2% in July. ECB Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt. Fed Powell Speech – The Fed President is set to speak at the Business Leader’s day in Washington. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action:USDJPY has settled around 113.00, above the eight-session low printed yesterday at 112.82. Ranges have been narrow in currency markets, despite risk appetite remaining firmly on the negative side of the dial. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) Index hit a 17-month low. The IMF cut its growth forecasts for both this year and next, including downgrades of the outlooks for the US, Europe and China. PBoC set the USD-CNY reference rate at 6.9019. Often times, such a backdrop would see the Yen appreciate, though the rise in US over Japan yield differential appears to be providing offsetting support for USDJPY. The 10-year US Treasury yield has today lifted to a fresh 7-year highs above 3.25%.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 3.239%, Treasury yields climbed 0.1 bp to 0.146%, while stocks traded mixed during the Asian session. Chinese and Hong Kong markets stabilized after yesterday’s sharp correction in Chinese stocks that were partly driven by catch up trades. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on Japanese equities. IMF warnings on the global growth outlook meanwhile lifted pressure on bonds, although the IMF referred mainly to growth outside the US and tax cut fuelled expansion in the US will continue to keep the Fed on a tightening path. Still, some are expecting BoJ to act more aggressively to curb the uptick in long yields. Topix and Nikkei are currently down -1.84% and -1.30% respectively. The ASX fell -0.97% though, and U.S. stock futures are also down while oil prices climbed higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 74.67 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – The September starts are expected to improve to a 210k pace in September from 201.0k in August. MPC Member Broadbent Speech – BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is due to testify on the use of the Retail Price Index before the Economic Affairs Committee, in London. Gov Council Member Wilkins Speech – Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appears in a panel at the Empowering Women in the Workplace Seminar at an IMF event in Bali Indonesia. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after sliding yesterday with Trump suggesting he would prefer the Fed to slow down the tightening cycle. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.144%, and bond markets were generally supported during the Asian session, while stocks traded mixed. Mainland China bourses were under pressure and the CSI 300 has lost -0.47% so far. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are also down -0.185 and -0.26% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.49% though and Topix and Nikkei gained 0.24% and 0.10% as tech stocks stabilized after a three day rout. The Kospi lost -0.87% as Trump suggested he will not meet with North Korea’s leader until after the midterm elections on November 6. US futures are trading narrowly mixed and oil prices are slightly lower on the day, trading at USD 74.71 per barrel.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.4 bp at 0.532% in opening trade. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after falling back yesterday and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.145%. The global rise in long rates seems to have halted for now and Bunds got an additional boost from a fresh wave of save haven flows as Italian bonds are once again under pressure this morning, with 10-year BTP rates up 4.4 bp at 3.512%. Stock futures are mostly lower in Europe and marginally higher in the US after a mixed session in Asia. Italian fiscal jitters and Brexit developments remain in focus, while the data calendar also livens up today with production numbers out of France and the UK.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, with Manufacturing Production expected to have increased to the same extent. UK Real GDP – Expectations – UK GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, compared to 0.3% in July, where the World Cup effect took place. US Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy – The US PPI is expected to have increased by 2.5% in September, compared to 2.3% in August, on account of higher inflation in the country. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -5.5 bp at 0.495% in opening trade, French yields down -4.6 bp and most peripheral yields are also down as the stock market rout deepened during the Asian session. Italian BTPs are once again the exception and the 10-year yield backed up 2.3 bp to 3.523% amid ongoing fiscal concerns. Elsewhere bond markets are being supported though as investors dump equities amid growing concerns about earnings and the global outlook as trade tensions increasingly show up in earnings reports. European stock futures are down 1.4-1.9% in early trade, underperforming versus US futures, which are down 0.7-0.8% at the moment. Italy and Brexit developments will remain in focus today, while the data calendar focuses on inflation data out of France, Spain, Sweden. Released overnight, the UK RICS house price balance fell back to 2% from 1% in the previous month.
FX Action: USDJPY has posted a 3-week low at 111.97, and EURJPY and AUDJPY have both seen 1-month lows. Yen outperformance, although relatively moderate, drove the moves amid a backdrop of plunging stock markets, which has seen the Japanese currency pick up safe haven demand. Wall Street saw its worst day in over eight months yesterday, with the USA500 closing with a 3.3% loss, and USA500 futures have extended lower by a further 1% in overnight trading with Asian markets hit hard. Japan’s Nikkei is down 4.4% heading into the Tokyo close while the Shanghai Composite is off by 4.6% in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. The rise in US and global yields over the last week, which has come amid signs that inflation is making a return, is getting principal blame in market narratives (while Trump blamed the “crazy” Fed), in what seems like a post-financial crises watershed. The consequences of trade protectionism is also in the mix.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today BOE’s Governor Carney & MPC Member Vlieghe speeches ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – In-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced ECB’s decision on regarding the interest rates. US Consumer Price Index and Core – Expectations –September CPI is expected to post increases of 0.2% for both the headline and core, after respective gains of 0.2% and 0.1% in August. Canadian New housing Price Index – Expectations – The new housing price index is projected to improve 0.1% in August after the 0.1% gain in July.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the 112.30-40 area after posting a 25-day low at 111.83 during the late New York PM session yesterday. The low was followed by broad Dollar declines in the wake of the softer than expected US CPI data yesterday, which has taken the edge out of Fed tightening expectations. Gains in USDJPY in Tokyo, however, have reflected broader Yen weakness, which has seen safe-haven premium unwind as stocks in Asia stabilize, with S&P 500 futures managing gains of more than 1.2%, after the cash index closed on Wall Street with a 2.1% decline. EURJPY and most other Yen crosses have also lifted. In the news today, a 5.3 earthquake hit Japan’s Kanto region, which is reportedly manageable for Japan. No tsunami warning has been issued. A senior official from the IMF, which today started its annual meeting in Bali, said that it was “too early” for Japan to talk about normalizing monetary policy while encouraging Tokyo to make structural reforms to accompany the stimulus.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and gained 2.9 bp to reach 3.178%. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.136%, as stock markets bounced back in Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index moved up from the lowest level since May 2017, led by bourses in Hong Kong and South Korea. As of 05:24GMT Topix and Nikkei were still down -0.35% and -0.34% respectively, but the Hang Seng bounced 1.67% and the CSI 300 was up 1.30%. Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp still declined at the start of the session, but are now at 0.53% and -0.06% respectively after a better than expected trade surplus. Kospi and Kosdaq are up 1.98% and 3.06% and the ASX gained 0.20%. Sentiment remains fragile, but US stock futures are posting gains of more than 1% so it seems markets are closing a very volatile week on a less pessimistic note. With central banks on course to end stimulus and Fed Chairman Powell stressing last week that the central bank is a “long way” from neutral rates, concerns remain that the Fed may tighten too much and the IMF warning about the impact of a tightening of financing conditions markets will be struggling to find a new equilibrium, with overreactions also likely as a result of heightened uncertainties. This leaves a wide range of possible outcomes for the world economy.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro Area Industrial Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, compared to a reduction of 0.8% in July. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Expectations – The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to pose slight gains in October, moving to 100.4, compared to 100.1 in September. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Divergence had been the name of the game so far this year as the trade war played out and the US outperformed the globe in the growth and equity sweepstakes. But the US yield breakout in October seems to be leveling the field again. The majority of equity indices around the world are negative on the month, while the US and Japan double-digit returns on the year have been cut in half. Looking ahead this week for fundamental signals, US retail sales should improve, though housing data may start to register a hit from Hurricane Florence.
United States: The week of October 15 will be a busy one in the US with several economic indicators as well as minutes from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting on the calendar. In terms of economic indicators, retail activity will be the focus, and a healthy gain is expected in retail sales in September. The Empire State and Philly Fed indexes should be mixed, but will remain at strong levels. Another solid gain is anticipated in industrial production while housing starts will likely decline and existing home sales should post a small gain. Finally, business inventories are expected to rise as is the leading economic index.
The economic calendar includes retail sales seen rising 0.5% in September (Monday) in headline sales and an ex-auto gain of 0.3%, after disappointing August data. Empire State index is estimated to rise to 21.0 in October (Monday), from a 5-month low of 19.0 in September. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in September (Tuesday), following 0.4% gains in August and July, Also on tap are the NAHB housing market index (Tuesday), seen rising to 68 in October from 67, along with JOLTS job openings. September housing starts (Wednesday) are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too (Wednesday). The Philly Fed index should moderate to 21.0 in October (Thursday) from 22.9 in September and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 6k to 220k in the week ended October 13 (Thursday), following a 214k reading in the week of October 6, as we may see a boost from Hurricane Michael. The leading economic index should post a 0.5% rise in September, a 12th straight monthly increase. The week rounds out with existing home sales that may post a lean 0.2% increase in September (Friday), to 5.35 mln, following a flat reading of 5.34 mln in August.
Canada: Canada’stop tier releases book-end this week’s docket, with the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey due Monday and the September CPI due Friday. The Bank’s Business Outlook Survey for autumn will likely show increased worry over trade. In the data calendar, CPI is seen holding steady in September on a month comparable basis (0.0%) after the 0.1% rise in August. Annual CPI growth is projected to slow to a 2.6% y/y pace in September from 2.8% in August and the lofty 3.0% growth rate in July, adding further support to the Bank’s view that the run-up in CPI through July was due to temporary factors that are now unwinding. Manufacturing sales values (Wednesday) are projected to fall 0.5% in August after the 0.9% improvement in July. August retail sales (Wednesday) are expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.3% gain in July.
Europe: The tensions between Rome and Brussels are likely to continue and the European Council meeting this week may also not bring the hoped for Brexit breakthrough. EU-27 leaders will hold a working dinner on Wednesday, before the official summit on Thursday and while there were signs that UK Chancellor May’s team are closer than ever to a deal with the EU’s Brexit negotiators, it is already clear that Brexiteers as well as Northern Ireland’s DUP, which May relies on in parliament, will be putting up a fight. Meanwhile the time for a deal that also has to pass national parliaments is truly running out.
Data releases focus on German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday), where slight dip should be posted in the October reading to -10.9 from -10.6 in September, although with the large volatility in markets this past week, uncertainty is higher than usual and much may depend on the timing of the answers. The final reading of September Eurozone HICP inflation (Tuesday) is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation. Core inflation remains at just 0.9%, giving Draghi room to ignore high headline rates for now. Other data releases include Eurozone trade (Tuesday),as well as BoP and current account data (Friday).
UK: Brexit negotiations are coming to a head into this week’s Brussel’s summit. The data calendar is busy this week, highlighted by monthly labor data (Tuesday), inflation figures (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday). The labor market report is expected to show unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.0% in August, and average household pay to also hold unchanged from the previous month, at 2.6% y/y in the three months to August (medians same). As for inflation, the headline CPI should dip to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure seen ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August. For September retail sales, a 0.3% m/m contraction could be released, after 0.3% growth in the month prior, with the y/y rate seen lifting to 3.7% y/y from 3.3%
Japan: The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a narrowed deficit to JPY 100.0 bln from the prior 438.4 bln shortfall when imports rose to a 15.3% y/y gain, while exports climbed to 6.6% y/y. September national CPI (Friday) likely cooled to 1.2% y/y from 1.3% overall, and to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. That won’t be good news for the BoJ.
China: The September CPI (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while September PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in slowing to 3.5% y/y from 4.1%. All eyes will be on Q3 GDP (Friday).Growth is seen decelerating modestly to 6.5% y/y from 6.7%, though that nevertheless could add to rising concerns over the bearish impact on growth from the US trade imbroglio. September industrial production (Friday) should pull back to a 5.9% y/y pace from 6.1%. September retail sales and fixed investment are also due (Friday), with the former forecast at 8.9% y/y from 9.0%, and the latter at an unchanged 5.3% y/y.
Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the October meeting (Tuesday).Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Wednesday) at the 2018 Citi Conference, Sydney. Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 25.0k in September after the 44.0k gain in October. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.3%, matching September.
New Zealand: The calendar has CPI (Tuesday), expected to expand 0.8% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.4% gain in Q2. The annual growth rates is projected to accelerate to a 1.8% pace from 1.5% in Q2. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8. No change is expected to the 1.75% policy setting next month and through 2019.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.171% and JGB yields rose 1.0 bp to 0.142%. Bond yields are resuming their uptrend as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session, although Oil prices are rising as Saudi tensions spike limited gains. There are also concerns over China’s GDP data later in the week, which markets fear will show the impact of US-Sino trade tensions. Japanese markets managed to bounce back from the 19-months low yesterday as Topix and Nikkei are up 0.13% and 0.41% respectively. The ASX is up 0.56% but the Hang Seng has lost -0.09% so far and the CSI -0.13% and Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp are down -0.14% and -0.21% respectively. US futures are moving higher though, in line with the overall improving trend in Asia. The front end Nymex future is trading slightly under USD 72 per barrel.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund future opened at 158.49, down from a close of 158.59 on Monday. The 10-year cash yield is also down -0.3 bp at 0.497% in the opening session after an unexpected dip in German import price inflation at the start of the session. Generally, global bonds are back under pressure as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session and 10-year Treasury rates are up 1.1 bp at 3.1675. The stalled Brexit talks, as well increased spending targets in Italy and now Spain remain in focus as does the fallout from the Bavarian election on the central government in Berlin. The data calendar focuses on UK labour market data as well as German ZEW investor confidence, with the latter expected to fall slightly.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today UK Labour Market Data – Expectations – The UK Unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4%, while Average Earnings should increase by 2.8% in August, compared to 2.9% in July. US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.3% in September, and Capacity Utilization to have increased to 78.2% compared to 78.1% in August. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields gained 0.2 bp each and are trading at 3.165% and 0142% respectively, but despite broad gains on Asian stock markets, Treasuries are down from earlier highs and most government bonds in Asia managed to move higher.Japanese bourses continued to bounce in the wake of the tech stock recovery in the US yesterday, and with earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Netflix adding support. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.35% and 1.05%. The ASX also managed a strong 1.12% gain, but Chinese bourses are underperforming. Hong Kong was closed today. US stock futures are actually posting slight losses, highlighting not only that stocks still have a way to go before they have recouped last week’s losses, but also that sentiment is still fragile as investors struggle with the sharp rise in yields. Markets are now looking ahead to today’s release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. The local calendar was quiet and Oil prices are trading around the USD 72 per barrel mark, after the unexpected drop in American crude stockpiles and as investors keep a nervous eye on simmering tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia over the missing journalist. For now, Trump seems to be giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt.
FX Action: USDJPY posted a 3-session high at 112.42 before settling around 112.14. AUDJPY posted a 1-week high before ebbing back, while the likes of EURJPY and GBPJPY have remained below their respective highs from yesterday, although also running higher during the Tokyo AM session. The weakness of the Yen has been concomitant with an improvement in risk appetite, with Wall Street closing solidly higher following a tech-led rally founded on encouraging earnings reports and stock markets in Asian, outside of China, following suit. The Nikkei 225 is showing a 1.3% gain, while China’s SSE index is down by 0.7% on nagging concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war. USDJPY has been in a choppy range rooted on the 112.00 level for nearly a week now, consolidating after dropping back from levels near 114.50 in the week before. Fundamentals (yield differentials and the associated contrast between Fed and BoJ policy paths) remain supportive, but the spectre of risk aversion has been an offsetting bearish force.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today UK Sep CPI – Expectations – The UK inflation is anticipated to headline CPI dipping to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August. EU 27-Summit on Brexit – European Union leaders are expected to meet in Brussels to discuss a possible Brexit deal with Britain, over dinner. Eurozone Sept. HICP – Expectations –The final reading of September Eurozone HICP is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation. US Sept. Housing starts, Permits & EIA inventories – Expectations – They are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. Also slated are MBA mortgage stats. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too. FOMC Meeting Minutes – The FOMC minutes will provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.0 bp at 0.416% in opening trade, versus losses in Treasury and JGB yields, although the US 10-year is up from yesterday’s lows and an early rebound in BTPs is adding pressure on Bunds at the open. Stock market sentiment also started to stabilise during the Asian session, although Chinese markets have already started to erase early gains and while CSI 300 and SSE are still hanging on to gains of 0.42% and 0.51% respectively, the Shenzhen is already back into negative territory. Market sentiment remains cautious then and likely prone to setbacks amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about the impact of tightening financial conditions. Italy’s budget spat with the Commission and Brexit talks will remain in focus. The European data releases today include preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone, with the manufacturing PMI seen dipping to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7. The Eurozone also has M3 money supply growth and the UK releases data on mortgage approvals.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today Eurozone manufacturing PMI – Expectations – EMU PMIs are expected to decline to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 (median 54.4) from 54.7. US New home sales – Expectations – September new home sales are estimated rising 0.5% to 632k, after bouncing 3.5% in August from declines in the previous two months. BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – A 25 bp hike to 1.75% is widely expected. Also, Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will hold a press conference from 15:15 GMT. For the whole story read our article. Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.7 bp at 0.376% in opening trade, Treasury yields have fallen back to just over 3.1% in the wake of the ongoing market rout, while 10-year JGBs are down -1.6 bp at 0.105%. US markets wiped out this year’s gains yesterday, Asian stocks markets are also sharply lower, while US futures are stabilising and UK futures are pointing to further losses in Europe. In this environment Draghi is likely to sound cautious at today’s press conference even as the ECB is set to confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. The rate guidance will likely remain unchanged, with no hike planned until after the summer of 2019 at the earliest. Norges Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged today, while data releases including the German Ifo survey and the UK CBI retailing survey come with the risk to the downside.
Asian Market Wrap: US Treasury yields have moved up slightly from lows and are up 0.4 bp on the day at 3.107%, still considerably below recent highs after yesterday’s tech stock driven rout on US markets was followed by further losses in Asia. JGB yields corrected -1.4 bp and are at 0.107%, after the NASDAQ closed down -4.4% yesterday and U.S. stocks wiped out this year’s gains after mixed earnings reports from the likes of AT&T and Texas Instruments. In Asia Topix and Nikkei dropped -2.8% and -3.5% respectively. The Hang Seng lost nearly 2% so far and Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses wiped out -1.385 and -1.92%, while the ASX declined -2.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was pushed deeper into a bear market. Concerns that the earnings momentum is levelling off and that tighter financial conditions, coupled with ongoing trade tensions are hitting the global growth outlook are prompting investors to rethink lofty equity valuations. There are plenty of geopolitical risks from the Kashoggi fallout to the prospect of a fresh arms race between the US and Russia. US futures are marginally higher, leaving some chance that US markets will at least try to stabilise today.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today ECB Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is not expected to change its interest rate, as per the guidance it has offered in the latest ECB Report. US Durable Goods Orders- Expectations – US Durable Goods Orders excl. Transportation are expected to continue their increase by 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.1% last month. Pending Home Sales – Expectations – Pending home sales are expected to have decreased by 0.1% compared to a 1.8% decrease last month. Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer:This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX Update: The Yen has traded with a firming bias while the Australian Dollar and other Dollar bloc currencies have underperformed amid fresh risk aversion in global markets. USDJPY has drifted to the lower 112.0s, approaching the 11-day low seen on Wednesday at 111.82, while EURJPY ebbed to a two-month low and AUDJPY to a fresh six-week low, reflecting renewed safe haven demand for the Japanese currency as stock markets in Asia, and U.S. equity index futures, flagged soft revenue and guidance from Amazon and Google. USA500 futures were showing a 0.9% loss, nearly halving the regular-session gain the cash USA00 index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The JPN225, meanwhile, closed 0.4% for the worse. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.9510, the highest fixing since 2016 and up from 6.9492 yesterday. In data, the October Tokyo CPI figure met expectations at 1.5% y/y. EURUSD has found a toehold after printing a two-month low late yesterday at 1.1356 following ECB President Draghi’s dialing down of hawkishness at yesterday’s post-policy meeting press conference.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -2.1 bp at 3.096%, 10-year JGB yields lost a further -0.3 bp and are at 0.102%. Stock markets started mostly higher during the Asian session after a strong close on Wall Street, but many indices struggled to hang on to gains. U.S. futures are also heading south again as Amazon and Alphabet results dented optimism for tech stocks once again. As of 5:20GMT Topix and Nikkei were down -0.05% and -0.16% respectively. The Hang Seng Was down -0.88%, Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses lost -0.46% and -0.21% while the ASX managed a marginal 0.02% gain. Volatility seems to remain the order of the day amid the multitude of geopolitical risks and amid concerns that earnings have peaked and will increasingly reflect the impact of trade tensions.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today US Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure on the US is expected to come out at 3.3% at an annualized rate, down from 4.2% last quarter, also on account of the Fed rate hikes and the hurricane season. US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to remain stable at 2%, right on the Fed target. Draghi Speech – Expectations – The ECB President is expected to speak at the National Bank of Belgium. Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The hand-off to November may not be a smooth one judging by the recent swings in sentiment and determination by the Fed to continue tightening. US employment data will take top billing with a week to go until the FOMC meeting, though it is expected to bounce back from hurricane-depressed levels. The earnings calendar remains a full one, with potential tricks or treats hiding in the weeds of the corporate reports. And there are midterm elections lurking just ahead. Asia will digest a heavy dose of month-end data from Japan, along with the BoJ meeting, though no change is expected there. China PMIs could highlight slowdown risks in the region as well. Budget struggles in Italy and rising tension with the EU remain in the spotlight, along with the potential for leadership showdowns in Germany and the UK, as Brexit negotiations, terms and approval remain far from certain. Similar to the more cautious tone from ECB’s Draghi, who is facing a lorry load of political risks, BoE MPC is expected to hold its repo and QE settings intact.
United States: The markets will absorb a slew of top tier US releases just ahead of the November 7-8 FOMC meeting. Top of the economic calendar will be the October Payrolls report (Friday),estimated to rise 200k, after a hurricane-depressed 134k reading in September. Personal income is expected to reach a 0.3% gain in September (Monday) after a similar pace in the prior two months and in line with the implied gain in wages from the September employment report. Case-Shiller home prices for August are due (Tuesday), along with consumer confidence. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday) is due, the ADP Employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern (Wednesday) near 60.5 in October.
Initial jobless claims are estimated to slip 2k to 213k in the week ended October 27 (Thursday),following a 5k rise to 215k in the week of October 20, while nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to a 2.4% pace in Q3, following a firm 2.9% gain in Q2 that should be revised up to 3.0%. The ISM index is estimated to slip to 59.4 in October (Thursday), from 59.8 in September and a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Vehicle sales are forecast to slow to a still-strong 17.2 mln pace in October (Thursday), after a 4.5% surge to 17.4 mln in September. Rounding out the week will be trade deficit (Friday), forecast to widen to -$54.1 bln in September from -$53.2 bln and factory orders, expected to rise 0.5% in September, after a 2.4% jump in August.
Canada: August GDP (Wednesday) is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July, which would keep growth on track for the 2.0% pace. October employment (Friday) is projected to expand 25.0k after the 63.3k surge in September. The Trade Balance (Friday) is expected at C$0.4 bln from the C$0.5 bln surplus in August. The Industrial Product Price Index for October is due on Wednesday. The Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for October is scheduled for release on Thursday. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appear at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Tuesday). Poloz and Wilkins address the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce (Wednesday).
Europe: The data calendar is very busy. Despite the mixed confidence data the flash reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP growth (Tuesday) is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2, largely thanks to a recovery in France. Widespread strike action had cut French GDP growth to just 0.2% q/q in Q2, and with peace restored the economic expansion is expected at 0.4% q/q in Q3, which should help to compensate for the likely weaker number out of Germany, which will be released later in the month. Looking ahead, PMI and Ifo surveys are pointing to weaker conditions in Q4 and against that background, the European Commission’s October ESI Economic Confidence Indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 110.3 from 110.9 in September.
Growth momentum may be slowing, but against that background a further decline is expected in the seasonally adjusted German jobless number of -10K, which should leave the October jobless rate at a record low of 5.1%. The overall Eurozone rate for September (Wednesday) meanwhile is seen falling back to 8.0% (8.1%) from 8.1% in the previous month. Wage growth is also finally picking up, thanks to higher negotiated wages. The preliminary reading of October German HICP (Tuesday) is anticipated to come in at 2.3% y/y, a little faster than September’s 2.2% y/y clip, while overall Eurozone HICP (Wednesday) seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number.
UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers this week for its November meeting (announcing Thursday), where no changes to either the repo rate or QE settings are widely expected. The central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report will provide updated projections on inflation and growth, which are expected to be little changed from the previous report in August.
The data calendar this week is busy, featuring September reports from the BoE on lending and money supply (Monday), the October CBI’s distributive sales survey (Tuesday), October Gfk consumer confidence (Wednesday), Markit’s October surveys for Manufacturing and Construction (due Thursday and Friday, respectively). The data carries little market-impacting potential at the current juncture with sentiment formation hinging on Brexit and global events.
Japan: BoJ concludes its 2-day meeting on Wednesday, and is expected to keep policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda’s press conference will be monitored for his outlooks and guidance. As for data, September unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.4%, while the job offerers /seekers should be unchanged at 1.63. September industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast contracting to a -1.5% y/y clip from 0.2%. October Consumer Confidence, September Housing Starts, and September Construction Orders (Wednesday) round out the month’s reports. The October manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, along with October auto sales.
Australia: Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rebound 6.0% in September after the 9.4% drop in August. CPI (Wednesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace in Q3 (q/q) after the 0.4% rise in Q2. CPI is projected at a 2.0% y/y growth rate in Q3, slowing slightly from the 2.1% clip in Q2. The trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, both measures of “core” inflation, are expected to repeat the 1.9% y/y growth rates seen in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is projected to narrow to A$1,400 mln in September from the A$1,604 mln surplus in August. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.4% in September (m/m) after the 0.3% rise in August. The import and export price indexes for Q3 are due Thursday, while Q3 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks at the 10th Annual Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney (Tuesday).
New Zealand: The calendar has September building permits (Wednesday). There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Comments
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th August 2018.
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Main Macro Events This Week
Fed Chairman Powell justified the FOMC’s gradualist approach to monetary policy in his Jackson Hole speech. He emphasized the uncertain nature of the two key policy variables — the natural rate of unemployment and the neutral real rate of interest. And in noting the difficulty in using them as navigational tools, he also solidified Greenspan’s risk management strategy still in effect today around the world as central bankers attempt to balance the risks of moving too quickly and choking off growth, or too slowly and allowing a destabilizing overheating.
United States: US markets rallied to end the week on a positive note after Chairman Powell showed no willingness to take on a more hawkish stance, even in the face of sustained strength in economic activity. And what’s more important, he doesn’t see signs of any overheating and suggested it might be prudent to look beyond inflation for signs of excesses. That means the FOMC need not become more hawkish but can maintain its gradualism policy stance. The USA500 and NASDAQ hit fresh all-time highs in the process.
Though the US economy continues to diverge from the rest of the world, its strength can help support Asian and European strength in the US, along with an ongoing accommodative posture from ECB and BoJ, remain supportive meanwhile, continuing to support global gains. There are several data releases of interest this week, including the second look at GDP, along with income and PCE, but none will alter the general outlook. Also highlighting this week is July personal income and consumption (Thursday), which will help fine tune GDP forecasts. It also includes the FOMC’s favoured inflation guide, the PCE deflator. Consumer confidence (Tuesday) should rise to 128.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and this trend is expected to continue over coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics. Preliminary August Michigan sentiment (Friday) is likely to slip down.
Canada: In Canada, GDP is the highlight, with data out for June and Q2. June GDP (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% (m/m, sa) after the 0.5% surge in May. Q2 real GDP (Thursday) is anticipated to grow 3.2% (q/q, saar), accelerating from the 1.3% rate of expansion in Q1. A pick-up in consumption spending and a positive contribution from net exports should drive Q2 GDP growth. A 3.2% Q2 GDP gain would overshoot BoC’s 2.8% estimate. Yet growth looks to moderate in Q3 and the details of the Q2 GDP report should align with the Bank’s views, suggesting that the report will not threaten policy gradualism. The current account (Wednesday) is seen running a -C$15.0 bln deficit in Q2 from -C$19.5 bln in Q1 as the goods trade deficit narrowed. The July industrial product price index (Friday) and the CFIB’s Business Barometer sentiment index (Thursday) round out the docket. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.
Europe: ECB’s unofficial summer break is slowly coming to an end and on their return officials will face an increasingly uncertain world that is bound to fuel diversions of opinion at the council. Trade jitters, Brexit risks and the potential fallout from Turkey’s troubles are only part of the multitude of risks that have underpinned volatility on peripheral bond markets and seen Italian officials in particular calling on ECB to scrap the planned phasing out of net asset purchases.
The lack of reform will further undermine competitiveness and growth potential going forward at a time, when external risks are mounting. Indeed, despite still positive growth rates, the Eurozone is not well equipped to deal with another major crisis, as ECB has much less room to maneuver this time around. Data releases this week are likely to confirm the overall picture of ongoing economic expansion and a gradual pick up in underlying inflation. French Q2 GDP (Wednesday), is likely to be confirmed at just 0.2% q/q and the Italian reading (Friday) also at just 0.2% q/q leaving the focus on the more forward looking confidence indicators, which come in the form of the German Ifo (Monday)and the European Commission’s ESI economic confidence indicator (Thursday). Against that background, the German official unemployment numbers (Thursday) are expected to drop a further -3K in August, which should leave the adjusted jobless rate at a very low 5.2%. The Eurozone unemployment rate remains considerably higher, but has been falling steadily and we expect a further decline to 8.2% with the July reading (Thursday), from 8.3% in June. Preliminary German HICP (Thursday) is seen steady at 2.1% y/y and French HICP (Friday) is expected to fall back marginally to 2.5% ) from 2.6%.
UK: UK markets are closed today for the UK’s latest August public holiday. Political and associated Brexit-related risks remain in play, manifested mostly in the forex market by keeping the Pound in a lower trading band than it would be otherwise. The UK government last week issued advice for individuals and businesses in the event of a no-deal Brexit, which, while apparently aiming to put to rest some of the scare stories that have been circulating in the populace, served to bring home the level of disruption this scenario would have on businesses. Time is running out for negotiations to avoid the no-deal scenario, with October’s EU leaders’ summit being the agreed on deadline. A “known unknown” wildcard is the risk that Prime Minister May will face as a leadership challenge in coming weeks. This week’s data calendar is fairly quiet, highlighted by the publication of monthly lending and money supply figures by BoE (Thursday) and the latest Gfk consumer sentiment survey (Friday).
Japan: The calendar doesn’t get underway until Thursday, when July retail sales are due. Sales are expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y pace of contraction from 1.5% for large retailers, but accelerate slightly to a 1.8% y/y clip overall, from 1.7% previously. The remainder of data come on Friday. Tokyo August CPI should tick up to 1.1% y/y from 0.9% overall, and remain steady at 0.8% y/y on a core basis. July unemployment is expected steady at 2.4%, with the job offers/seekers ratio a touch higher at 1.63 from 1.62. July industrial production is penciled in rebounding 0.5% m/m versus the prior 2.1% decline. July housing starts and July construction orders are also due.
China: China reveals the official August CFLP manufacturing PMI (Friday), which is expected to slip to 51.0 from 51.2 in July, and is down from 51.9 in May. The markets will keep a close eye on the data as signs of slowing in manufacturing have been a worrying development in the last couple of months and especially as the tariff frictions have escalated.
Australia: A sparse slate has private capital expenditures and building permits on Friday. Private capital expenditures are expected to grow 0.5% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.4% rise in Q1. Building permits are projected to fall 3.0% in July after the 6.4% gain in June. There is nothing scheduled from RBA this week. The next event is the September 4 policy meeting, where we expect no change to the current 1.50% policy setting.
New Zealand: Building permits for July (Thursday) are the lone highlight. RBNZ provided dovish forward guidance this month along with no change in rates, saying rates will be steady through to 2020.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th August 2018.
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Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields pared some of their earlier gains and are down -0.2 bp on the day at 2.844%, 10-year JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp but at 0.088% also down from earlier highs as the buoyant mood on equities starts to fade and the Yen strengthened against the Dollar. Asian stock markets still benefited from hopes for a bilateral trade deal between the US and Mexico and mostly extended yesterday’s gains after a strong close on Wall Street. Questions over where the deal will leave Canada seem to limit the room for further gains however, as investors clamour for detail. Topix and Nikkei are still up 0.26% and 0.19% respectively, but off highs. The Hang Seng managed to hang on to a modest 0.17% gain, while mainland China underperformed with CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp down -0.19% and -0.12% respectively. US futures are slightly higher, Oil prices fell back from highs above USD 69 per barrel.
FX Update: USDJPY flipped back above 111.00, continuing an oscillation of this level for a third consecutive session, holding below the three-week high that was printed on Friday at 111.48. Yen crosses have been more buoyant, with EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, posting respective 4- and 3-week highs during the Tokyo AM session, although both crosses have since come off by between 20 and 30 pips. The Yen’s overall weakness has been concomitant with the USA500 closing at a record high yesterday and generally upbeat tone in global equity markets. Yield differentials remains a fundamental bullish driver for USDJPY, but the risks being posed by the US-China trade war, which doesn’t so far show any signs of cooling in the wake of the US-Mexican agreement in principle, has been capping upside potential in recent months, which is expected to remain the case. Regarding the US-China trade situation, Trump in the wake of his stage-managed Mexico announcement) that “it’s just not the right time to talk right now.” USDJPY has resistance at 111.48-50 and 112.15, and support at 110.93-95.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices – Expectations – expected to remain unchanged at 6.5% y/y for June.
US Consumer confidence – Expectations – Consumer confidence should rise to 127.0 in August, from 127.4 in July. Confidence readings remain at elevated levels, close to the 17-year high of 130.0 registered in February and we expect this trend to continue over the coming months, despite the noise from trade and politics.
US Goods Trade Balance – Expectations – The advance indicators for July should show a deterioration in the Trade Balance for Goods to -$70.5 bln (-$68.5 bln) after widening for the first time in four months to -$67.9 bln in June.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th August 2018.
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FX News Today
FX Update: The Dollar has traded firmer overall, although it has continued to hold steady in a narrow range against the Yen. USDCAD dropped to its lowest level since June 6, at 1.2887, driven by reports that Canada is ready to make significant concessions on diary to secure a trade deal with the US. This is potentially good news as it raises the chances for Congress to approve the White House agreement with Mexico in the context of a revamped NAFTA deal. Elsewhere, EURUSD extended yesterday’s correction from the four-week peak at 1.1733, posting a 1.1674 low. AUDUSD fell to a two-day low at 0.7308, and Cable has seen a two-day low at 1.2854, with the Pound so far unaffected by news reports that the UK and the EU are likely to further push the deadline for a Brexit agreement to mid-November rather than October’s EU summit. USDJPY, in contrast to other Dollar pairs, has posted less than a 20 pip range so far in the Tokyo trading, defined by 111.13 and 111.31, which continues a phase of tight consolidative price action into a fourth consecutive session. EURJPY and other Yen crosses, meanwhile, have declined moderately. PBoC set the USDCNH reference at 6.8072, fractionally up on yesterday’s 6.8052.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp at 2.871%, pulling back from highs slightly over 2.85% yesterday. JGB yields are still up 0.1 bp at 0.089%, but also off earlier highs. Wall Street closed with marginal gains yesterday after the US500 pulled back from record highs over the 2900 mark, with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.13% respectively amid optimism over U.S. growth after an improvement in consumer sentiment. Mainland China bourses are in the red, however, with investors remaining cautious despite reports that Canada is willing to make considerable concessions to secure a trade deal amid ongoing concerns over China-US trade prospects. As treasury yields are approaching 2.9% rate-sensitive shares start to feel the pressure. The Hang Seng moved sideways, while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.47% and -0.33% respectively. US futures are moving higher, though while oil prices are down.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US Q2 GDP results (USD, GMT 12:30) – Event of the week. The Gross Domestic Product figure, is probably the most important economic data announcement for a country, closely followed by the unemployment rate. Usually, high growth or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative. GDP growth is expected to remain at the same levels as the previous quarter.
Canadian Current Account Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The Canadian current account balance for Q2 is expected, on the basis of consensus forecasts, to improve significantly from -19.5 bln to -15.2 bln. Usually, the more positive the better for the currency.
Retail trade for July (JPY, GMT 23:50) – The index captures the aggregate sales made for household or personal consumption. Consumer spending is a key important indicator for the Japanese economy, but consensus expectations is that July trade will decrease by 0.3%.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 04th September 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Treasury and JGB yields are little changed at 2.86% and 0.10% respectively, as stocks drifted during the Asian session after yesterday’s holiday in the US. Trade concerns and emerging market jitters remain in focus, with the difficult Canada and US talks, and Trump’s latest round of China tariffs high on the agenda. The latter could be announced as early as Thursday. Argentina and Turkey meanwhile are still struggling to regain investor confidence. Turkey’s central bank yesterday vowed to take action, as inflation hit 18%, sparking hopes that the long awaited rate hike will finally come. Argentina, meanwhile, launched fresh measures to stem the crisis. RBA left rates unchanged as expected, but estimated that the economy grew above trend in the first six months of the year and suggested inflation will pick up from 2019.
FX Update: The Dollar has traded generally firmer. EURUSD has dipped back under 1.1600, while the Cable has fallen to a one-week low of 1.2843, extending the Pound-driven losses of yesterday after the EU’s Brexit negotiator Barnier all-but rejected the British government’s proposed plan for a new trading deal. The Sterling has also posted fresh lows against the Euro and other currencies. USDJPY has lifted to a three-session high of 111.37, flipping back above the midway mark of the recent range, while AUDJPY, which was a big loser yesterday, has bounced back amid a 1%-plus rally in Chinese equity markets. The Australian Dollar, which has been correlating strongly with Chinese stocks, outperformed the US Dollar, posting a two-session high at 0.7235. Overall, market conditions have been calm today, though there a feeling that a storm is bearing down. Concerns remain about vulnerable foreign-currency indebted emerging market countries, while President Trump looks set to make a big ratchet up in the Sino-US trade war with the imposition of tariff hikes on a further $200 bln of Chinese imports, which, unless he has a sudden change of heart, could happen as soon as Thursday. Canada-US talks on trade will resume tomorrow.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Construction PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to dip to 55.0, following July’s 55.8.
UK Inflation Report Hearings – The BOE Governor and several MPC members testify on inflation and the economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee.
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – It is estimated to slip to 58.0 in August, from 58.1 in July, which will still leave the index close to a 14-year high of 60.8 in February.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 05th September 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian session, with trade woes and as the EM crisis saw market pressure shifting from currencies to stocks. IMF reported progress in talks with Argentina but contagion fears continue to weigh on sentiment also in developed markets. Treasury yields still backed up from overnight lows and are up 0.3 bp on the day at 2.909%, while 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to 0.104%. Australia’s 10-year yields jumped more than 4 bp after higher than expected GDP numbers. US stock futures are moving down Oil prices are also slightly lower and the WTI future is trading at USD 69.38 per barrel.
FX Update: The Dollar majors are near net unchanged on the day so far, into the arrival of the London interbank market, while emerging market currencies have enjoyed some reprieve. EURUSD has been holding near to 1.1600 after recouping from the 2-week low that was seen yesterday at 1.1530, with reports of good selling interest above 1.1600 helping cap the pairing. The Yen underwent a bout of weakness before firming back. USDJPY lifted to a 111.71 high earlier in Tokyo, before ebbing back under 111.50. In news out of Japan today, BoJ is reportedly happy with its recent tweaks to its yield curve control policy, which allows for greater flexibility, according to sources cited by Bloomberg. AUDJPY, a cross which came under heavy pressure last week, correlating with Chinese stock markets, lifted to a three-session high today, aided by strong Q2 GDP data out of Australia (which showed the best annual growth rate, at 3.4% y/y, since Q3 2012). The cross, like USDJPY, has fallen back from the highs as the Yen picked up some support amid a backdrop of fragile stock market sentiment in Asia and globally. The threat of a marked escalation in the Sino-US trade war continues to hang over markets, while most expect more unravelling in the nascent emerging market currency crisis.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Services PMI – Expectations – It is anticipated to rise to 53.8 from July’s 55.5 reading.
Eurozone Services PMI – Expectations – They are likely to confirm overall Eurozone readings at 54.6 and 54.4 respectively, leaving the Composite at 54.4.
Canadian Trade Balance & Labor Productivity – Expectations – The July trade report is anticipated to show a widening to -C$1.6 bln from -C$0.6 bln in June. Exports are seen falling 1.0% after the 4.1% surge in June. Productivity is expected to rise 0.3% in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.3% drop in Q1.
BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – No change to the current 1.50% rate setting, is expected, as BoC Governor Poloz was dovish on the pop to 3.0% y/y CPI growth in July, saying it was in line with their projection and due to “transitory factors.”
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 06th September 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields are little changed at 2.902%, JGB yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.100%. BoJ boosted buying five 10-year bonds in a bid to offset a cut in frequency of operations this month, which ties in with the bank’s intention not to make major changes after the last policy tweak and dampen speculation that it wants to taper at a faster pace. BoJ Board member Kataoka criticized the forward guidance and suggested the bank should have specified inflation rates, the output gap or inflation expectations. At the same time, he took fault with the added flexibility on the 10-year yield as it made the zero percent target unclear. Stock markets meanwhile remained under pressure amid ongoing emerging market concerns. A stronger Yen and a powerful earthquake added pressure on Japanese markets, as did a tumble in US tech stocks. Some markets, including Indonesia and Malaysia, managed modest gains, but most markets are firmly in negative territory. US Futures are also down, as are oil prices, with the WTI future trading at USD 68.59 per barrel.
FX Action:USDJPY and especially Yen crosses are softer, amid a risk-off themed session in pre-Europe trading in Asia and concerns about emerging market fragility and the next round of US tariffs on Chinese imports. Tech sector underperformance and reports of a powerful earthquake in Japan have also been in the mix. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.17, down from a peak at 111.75, and subsequently settling above 111.30. The biggest mover, once again, has been the AUDJPY cross, which lost nearly 0.5% in making a 79.81 low and returning focus on the 22-month low that was seen on Monday at 79.52. BoJ ultra-dove Kataoka criticized the recent policy tweak by the central bank, to allow greater flexibility in its yield curve control, arguing that it made the zero percent target unclear while calling for additional monetary stimulus. His remarks had little impact on the Yen.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – Expectations – It is forecast to rise 205k in August vs 219k in July.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI & Jobless claims – Expectations – ISM-NMI index should rise to 57.0 in August, after dipping to 55.7 in July. Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 2k to 215k in the week ended September 1, following a 213k reading in the week of August 25.
Canadian Building permits – Expectations – Building permits values are projected to gain 3.0% in July (m/m, sa) after the 2.3% drop in June.
Crude Oil Inventories
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 07th September 2018.[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/calendar-07-Sept-1.png[/IMG]
[B]FX News Today[/B]
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.875%, slightly down from overnight heights, 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.098%. Asian stocks headed further south on route for the worst week since March. Tech stock earnings, trade jitters and emerging market risks remain in focus and continue to weigh on confidence although at least emerging market stocks seemed somewhat steadier albeit in a bearish market. Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.59% and -0.93% respectively, the Hang Seng lost -0.78% and the CSI 300 is down -0.105, after shedding early gains. US futures are heading south and oil prices are little changed with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 67.83 per barrel.
FX Action: USDJPY and AUDJPY have dropped further today, the former clipping a 16-day low at 110.38 and the latter falling by over 0.5% on route to posting fresh 22-month lows. The story remains the same, with the Yen being underpinned by safe haven demand and the Aussie Dollar underperforming due to Australia’s exposure to China, which looks set to find the US hiking tariff rates on another $200 bln worth of its exports. There are also reports that Trump is thinking of opening up a new front in his trade war with Japan. The general view seems to be that the US will proceed with ratcheting-up the trade war, with the Trump administration firmly in the belief that it is winning. Emerging market stress and tech sector weakness are also in the mix, while today’s US jobs report, on a brighter note, is expected to be strong.
[B]Charts of the Day[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/charts-1024x447.png[/IMG]
[B]Main Macro Events Today[/B]
* Euro area real GDP – Expectations – Consensus forecast is that it will be the same as the preliminary figure.
* US Average Hourly Earnings & Nonfarm Payrolls– Expectations – Hourly earnings is an indicator of labor cost inflation and labor market tightness. Consensus forecast for August expects it to remain at 2.7%, same as last month. Nonfarm payrolls measures the number of new jobs created and is expected to grow by 191k compared to 157k last month.
* Canadian Unemployment and Employment – Expectations – A small net change in employment is expected for August, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased by 0.1%, to 5.9% in August.
[B]Support and Resistance Level[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/sucden.png[/IMG]
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]
[B]
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th September 2018.
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Main Macro Events This Week
Tariff concerns continued to rattle equity markets, especially after President Trump surprised with an announcement he was readying an additional $267 bln in levies on Chinese goods. Many key stock indexes had their worst week in months and are likely to remain unsettled. Stocks and bonds around the world will remain sensitive to trade tensions, along with ongoing Brexit uncertainties. Also, economic data will be closely monitored for signs of growth and price impacts. Central bank meetings include the ECB, BoE, and Turkey. No surprises are expected from ECB and BoE. There will be a lot of interest in Turkey’s decision and whether it will hike rates.
United States: US markets posted some hefty losses last week. As for this week’s data, CPI and retail sales are the highlight. The stronger than expected 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings in the August jobs report, and the concomitant acceleration in the pace of growth to 2.9% y/y, a new cycle high and the fastest since May 2009, will put the focus on August CPI. Looking ahead, y/y gains are expected in headline inflation moderating and stabilising at lower levels over coming months while gains in core prices should remain around 2.4% over the remainder of the year. That should keep the Fed on a gradual trajectory. August retail sales are forecast rising 0.4%, with a 0.6% gain in ex-auto sales. Other data this week includes the preliminary September Michigan sentiment reading, which should move up to 97.0, from a 7-month low of 96.2 in August. The August drop reflected a decline in the current conditions index and the expectations component, and in September both components are likely to get improved. In spite of the August drop, the measure continues to oscillate just below the 14-year high of 101.4 in March. August trade prices will be of interest. Tariffs will likely depress trade prices going forward despite upward domestic price pressure, as producers absorb some of the tax impact. Meanwhile, headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%.
Fedspeak will be of interest. Several voting Committee members will take to the podium. And while all will support the likelihood for a tightening later this month, their outlooks on the economy down the road will be scrutinized.
Canada: The ongoing NAFTA talks this week, will be in focus. Stronger than expected reports could add to some angst over BoC, after Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins said in her economic update last Thursday that the Governing Council discussed whether the “gradual approach” remains appropriate. As for the data, August housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to improve to 220.0k from 206.3k in July. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is seen climbing to 87.0% in Q2 from 86.1% in Q1, as real GDP surged 2.9% in Q2 (q/q, saar) after running at a tame 1.4% in Q1. The national balance sheet and financial flow accounts report for Q2 (Friday) will provide the Q2 household debt ratio. The July new home price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.1% rise in June, joining other evidence that Canada’s housing market has stabilized after contracting early this year. The Teranet HPI for August is due Wednesday.
Europe: The main focus this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting. Official rates are likely to be left untouched and Draghi is expected to confirm the guidance on rates, which foresees no change through the summer of next year. That leaves the focus on QE and the future of net asset purchases. The data calendar is highlighted by German ZEW investor confidence (Tuesday), were a slight improvement to -12.5 is expected with the September number, versus -13.7 in August. This would still mean that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, and confirm the prevailing view that downside risks are becoming more visible even if current growth trends remain robust. The rest of the week’s calendar features mainly final readings for August inflation numbers, which are not expected to bring major surprises. The Spanish HICP (Wednesday) should be confirmed at 2.2% y/y, German and French readings (Thursday) at 2.0% and 2.6% respectively and the Italian number (Friday) at 1.7% y/y. The Italian number is still held back by positive base effects from changes to education charges last year, but these will fall out of the equation soon.
The Eurozone also has July trade (Friday) and production (Wednesday) data, and after the mixed German and French numbers, we are looking for a small change of 0.1% m/m in industrial production and a narrowing in the trade surplus. The latter remains very high compared to periods ahead of the financial crisis, and leaves the EU and Germany, in particular, vulnerable to charges of imbalances and an undue focus on exports.
UK: Attention will remain on Brexit negotiations, along with the September BoE MPC meeting (to be announced Thursday) and a slew of data releases that are highlighted by the second estimate Q2 GDP, July production and trade figures (all due Monday), and the latest labor market report covering July and August (Tuesday). The BoE’s policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.
As for the data, Q2 GDP is expected to come in unrevised at 0.3% q/q and 1.3% y/y, and both July industrial and manufacturing production to expand by 0.4% m/m, which would match the respective growth rates of the month prior. The labor report is anticipated to show a slight tick higher in the unemployment rate, to 4.1% from the multi-decade low rate of 4.0%, with average earnings unchanged at 2.4% y/y and 2.7% y/y in the respective with-bonus and ex-bonus figures in the three months to July.
Japan: The July tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is seen posting a 0.2% rebound after falling 0.5% in June. The Q3 BSI large all industry index (Wednesday) is predicted rising 1.0 after tumbling 5.3 points to -2.0 in Q2. July machine orders (Thursday) are forecast to rise 5.0% m/m versus the prior 8.8% decline. August PPI (Thursday) likely edged up to a 3.2% y/y pace from 3.1%. Revised July industrial production is due Friday.
China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.
Australia: A thin docket is highlighted by August employment (Thursday) which is expected to rise 10.0k after the 3.9k decline in July. The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 5.3% in August.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th September 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields have corrected some of yesterday’s gains that saw the 2-year hitting a decade high with investors increasingly pricing in 2 more rate hikes by year end. A fresh bout of risk aversion amid escalating trade tensions added support to core bond markets and 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp at 2.968%, while 10-year JGB yields declined -1.0 bp to 0.095%. Stocks meanwhile are heading for their 10th day of losses in Asia, as China told WTO that it wants to impose USD 7 bln a year in sanctions on the US in retaliation for the US non-compliance with a ruling on US dumping duties. Trump, on the other end, stressed again that the US will be taking a tough stance on China. The MSCIs index of emerging market shares meanwhile has fallen to the lowest levels since May 2017, indicating that EM risks also continue to linger, with tomorrow’s central bank decision in Turkey in view. Across Asia, stocks are mostly lower, with Topix and Nikkei losing -0.55% and -0.39%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -0.45% and -0.62% respectively. The ASX lost -0.12% and US Futures are also lower, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday, as Apple led technology stocks and a surge in Oil prices underpinned energy producers. Oil prices are slightly below overnight highs over USD 70 per barrel, as hurricane Florence threatened east coast gasoline markets and in the midst of sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
FX Update: Both the Dollar and the Yen have firmed up against most other currencies amid a backdrop of risk aversion in Asia, with the Japanese currency marginally outperforming the US currency, seeing USDJPY nudge lower, after initially posting a 1-week high in early Asia Pacific dealings at 111.65, with the pair then ebbing to the 111.45-50 area. The price was matched by EURJPY, AUDJPY and most other Yen crosses, reflecting a modest pick-up in safe demand for the Japanese currency. Moreover, stock markets in Asia headed south amid ratcheting verbal threats between the US and China on trade and sanctions (US threatening sanctions over treatment of Uighur people, Beijing threatening sanctions on US over trade dumping duties). This situation has offset a signal from Canada that it is ready to make concessions to the US that may lead to a breakthrough in the NAFTA renegotiation (which helped lift the USA500 to a closing gain of 0.4% yesterday on Wall Street).
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
US PPI and Core – Expectations – The headline and core PPI measures are seen rising 0.2%. The y/y gain in the headline index should be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in July, while the core index should hold steady at 2.7% y/y.
Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – The crude oil inventories expected to decrease by 1.3 million barrels.
Support and Resistance levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th September 2018.[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-09-13_09-37-05.jpg[/IMG]
[B]FX News Today[/B]
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund future opened at 159.71, versus a close of 159.63 on Wednesday. The 10-year cash yield is down -0.5 bp at 0.402%, while Treasury and JGB yields are still up 0.2 bp, but down from earlier highs. A rebound in Asian stock markets, on hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks, put pressure on core bonds, but the Chinese markets quickly erased much of their early gains, and in Europe fresh Italy jitters, amid reports that Finance Minister Tria threatens to resign over budget talks, are adding support to Bunds in opening trade. US futures are heading south after a closing narrowly mixed on Wednesday. There is some speculation that Trump may be changing gears with increased efforts behind the scenes to reach deals in orders to win support, but investors remain cautious. EM markets also remain in focus, as Turkey’s central bank meets, amid ongoing political pressure not to hike rates too much, if not at all. Oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 70 per barrel and are trading at USD 69.86. Released at the start of the session, German HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y as expected, but the focus is on ECB and BOE meetings today. Both are expected to keep rates unchanged, but Draghi is also likely to confirm the planned phasing out of QE, while downward revisions to growth projections and unchanged cautious guidance on rates will offer an opportunity to wrap the changes in a dovish leaning presser.
FX Update: Yen weakness has been the dominant theme, albeit moderate, during the pre-London open session in Asia, while the Dollar has consolidated losses seen yesterday. USDJPY lifted, as the Japanese currency saw some more of its safe haven premium unwind, following yesterday’s news of the US invitation to senior Chinese officials to restart trade talks. This comes, in true Trumpian fashion, with the US having loaded the gun with tariff hikes on a further $200 bln worth of Chinese imports and threatening to hike tariffs on the remaining $267 bln of imports. USDJPY has lifted back to the mid-111.0s, while EURJPY, AUDJPY and other Yen crosses have concurrently firmed up. Most stock markets in Asia have rallied. EURUSD, after printing a one-week high yesterday at 1.1650 (following news of the US invitation), has drifted to around the 1.1620 mark. The biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates has been AUDJPY and CHFJPY, with both showing 0.3% gains.
[B]Charts of the Day[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-09-13_09-37-26-1024x568.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Main Macro Events Today[/B]
* BOE Monetary Policy & Bank Rate – Expectations – BoE’s September policy meeting should prove to be a non-event for markets with no changes expected to settings or guidance at this juncture. The “Old Lady” should reaffirm its commitment to a gradual tightening course, attaching the usual caveats about the risks stemming from enduring Brexit uncertainty and escalating global trade protectionism.
* ECB Press Conference & Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is widely expected to leave the guidance on rates untouched and confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. Back in June, Draghi said that ECB anticipates to cut back net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and phase out purchases in December. Focus will also be on the details on planned tweaks to the re-investment strategy, which will likely bring more flexibility for ECB as redemptions start to become more important.
* US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is forecast rising to 0.2% m/m for both overall and core prices.
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]
[B]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th September 2018.[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/calendar.jpg[/IMG]
[B]FX News Today[/B]
FX Update: The Dollar has been holding mostly narrow ranges against most other currencies, though USDJPY showed a fresh six-week high at 112.07 during early the Tokyo session before settling around the 111.80 mark. Other Yen crosses also registered new highs, before settling, with the Japanese currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market direction. The USD index (DXY) has remained broadly unchanged on the day, at 94.50, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the US CPI release. EURUSD is also near net unchanged heading into the London interbank open, at 1.1695, holding just below yesterday’s two-week peak of 1.1701. Cable has similarly held steady near yesterday’s highs. US data releases are up today, including retail sales and industrial production, with risks to the upside.
Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.968%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.2 bp at 0.103%, while stock markets moved broadly higher during the Asian session, after a technology-led rise in US markets yesterday. Cautious central banks in Europe, hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks and a larger-than-expected rate hike in Turkey all make for a positive backdrop to sentiment as the week draws to a close. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.91% and -0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.87% and the CSI 300 is up 0.15%, Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are down -0.04% and -0.41% though after Trump cast some doubts over reports of a new round of talks with China and the investment slowdown worsened according to latest data, indicating that policies intended to boost investment growth have not made and impact yet. U.S. futures are moving higher in tandem with FTSE 100 futures and oil prices are slightly higher with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.83 per barrel.
[B]Charts of the Day[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/market-news-1024x448.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Main Macro Events Today[/B]
* US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.
* US Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production Indices – Expectations – Both indices are expected to show the improvement in US macroeconomic developments over the past weeks, with Capacity Utilisation expected to stand at 78.2%, compared to 78.1% in July. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.3%,
* compared to 0.1% last month.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Sentiment is expected to increase, again given the improvement in US macroeconomic conditions, to 96.6 compared to 96.2 in July.
[B]Support and Resistance Levels[/B]
[IMG]https://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/sucden.jpg[/IMG]
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/hf/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click [URL=https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/trading-webinars.html][B]HERE[/B][/URL] to register for FREE!
[URL=https://analysis.hotforex.com/][B]Click HERE to READ more Market news.[/B][/URL]
[B]
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th September 2018.
[IMG]
Main Macro Events This Week
The trade war appears to be ratcheting up once again amid contradictory signals from the Trump administration. Last week a WSJ story suggested that the Chinese had been invited back to the negotiating table by a trade team headed by the more moderate Mnuchin, though Trump later tweeted that there wasn’t any pressure to make a deal with China. Wall Street responded bullishly to the apparent olive branch and shrugged off the tweet on balance, even after Trump indicated his advisors would be instructed to proceed with the $200 bln in tariffs. This has “increased tail risk” according to JP Morgan analysis in terms of the range of possible outcomes, which will dictate just how much growth may slow, if implemented, and inflation may increase – from nominal changes to significant swings. Fed policy is seen remaining on track in the meantime, as the two effects tend to cancel each other out and US employment and inflation mandates continue to punch in roughly on target.
United States: The US economy remains firm hurtling toward the end of Q3 after a strong 4.2% GDP growth pace in Q2. All survey participants are forecasting another quarter-point tightening in December, too, and most recent Fedspeak has been comfortable with quarterly hikes heading into 2019 as well.
The US economic calendar kicks off with an update on the Empire State index, seen declining to 22.0 in September (Monday), from a 10-month high of 25.6 in August. The NAHB housing market index is forecast (Tuesday) to rise to 68 in September from 67 in August. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), and along with housing starts are expected to rise 4.5% in August, to a 1.220 mln rate, after a 0.9% gain to 1.168 mln in July. August building permits are estimated to rise 0.9% to 1.315 mln, following a similar gain in July. The current account balance is forecast to narrow to -$103.3 bln in Q2 (Wednesday), from -$124.1 bln in Q1 reflecting strength in exports but a flat import figure. The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September (Thursday), from a 2-year low of 11.9 and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 8k to 212k in the week ended September 15, following a 204k reading in the week of September 8-lowest since December 1969. Existing home sales are anticipated to rebound 1.1% in August to a 5.40 mln pace (Thursday), after declines in the prior four months. Sales declined 6.6% in Q2, after a 6.1% drop in Q1, amid lopsided hurricane rebuilding comparisons the year prior. And the leading economic index is expected to rise 0.5% in August, after a 0.6% gain in July and a 0.5% increase in June.
Canada: Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to expand 1.0% in July after the 1.1% gain in June. CPI (Friday) is projected to be flat (0.0%) in August (m/m, nsa) after the 0.5% surge in July, slowing the annual growth rate to 2.9% in August from 3.0% y/y in July. The three core measures are expected to remain near a 2.0% annual growth pace in August. Retail sales (Friday)are seen rising 0.5% in July after the 0.2% decline in June. Retail sales excluding autos are projected to expand 0.6% in July following the 0.1% dip in June. Existing homes sales for August are expected on Monday. The ADP employment survey is due Thursday. Canada’s Foreign Affairs Minister Freeland is expected to return to Washington to resume high level NAFTA talks, which could reach a provisional framework.
Europe: Last week, ECB confirmed the tapering of net asset purchases to EUR 15 bln from October and still intends to phase out QE by year end, but with ECB maintaining its stock for now and redemptions becoming more important, comments from ECB President Draghi on Wednesday are likely to stress again that the central bank is still maintaining a still very expansionary policy. Meanwhile, the data calendar focuses on preliminary PMI numbers for September (Friday). The German ZEW came in a tad higher than expected, but German orders numbers were pretty dismal and the geopolitical risk backdrop has not improved significantly. Against that background Eurozone readings are expected to slightly change from the August round with growth and job creation ongoing but slowing down as respondents increasingly note the uncertainties surrounding the longer term outlook. The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and the services reading is expected to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend. Final August Eurozone HICP (Monday) inflation meanwhile is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 2.0% y/y, but comes with a slight bias to the downside, after some downward revisions to national data.
UK: Brexit negotiations, now very much at the sharp end, will continue, and will also no doubt continue to be a source of turbulence for sterling markets. Talks will continue this week. The EU’s 28 leaders are due to discuss Brexit at a summit in Salzburg this Thursday, where they are expected to agree to hold an extraordinary meeting in November to sign off on a deal on future relations. Another key event to watch will be the Conservative Party conference, which will take place from September 20 to October 3. The data calendar will be highlighted by August inflation data (Wednesday) and August retail sales numbers (Thursday). The headline CPI is anticipated to ebb back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, with core prices seen similarly nudging lower, to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% y/y. As for retail sales, a 0.2% m/m contraction in August should be reported, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.
Japan: BoJ announces policy on Wednesday after its two-day meeting. The Bank will likely leave its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and leave YCC (yield curve control), which guides the 10-year JGB around 0%, in place. The data calendar doesn’t kick off until Wednesday, when the August trade report is due. August national CPI (Friday) is seen at 1.0% y/y from 0.9% overall, and at 0.9% y/y from 0.8% on a core basis. The July all-industry index is also due Friday.
China:The August trade report was released Saturday and showed a new record surplus of $31.1 bln with the US as exports slowed to a 9.8% y/y clip from 12.2%, and imports slipping to 20.0% from 27.3%. That might not sit well with President Trump and could be the catalyst for the $267 bln in increased levies he’s debating. This week, August industrial production (Friday) should remain steady at a 6.0% y/y clip, while August fixed investment (Friday) is penciled in at an unchanged 5.5% y/y pace. August retail sales (Friday) are estimated at an 8.7% y/y rate from 8.8%.
Australia: Another sparse docket is highlighted by the minutes of Reserve Bank of Australia’s September meeting (Tuesday). RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent discusses “Money Creation” at the Reserve Bank’s Topical Talk Event for Educators. The Q2 housing price index (Tuesday) is expected to decline 0.6% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% drop in Q1.
New Zealand: GDP (Thursday) is projected to expand at a 0.6% pace in Q2 (q/q, sa) after the 0.5% rise in Q1. The current account (Wednesday) is seen moving to a -NZ$1.0 bln deficit in Q2 from the NZ$0.2 bln surplus in Q1.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th September 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
FX News Today
FX Update: Forex and stock markets are taking the as-expected news of Trump’s trade war escalation in their stride. The tariffs will start at 10% from next Monday before rising to 25% on January 1. Trump has also threatened to tariff the remaining $267 bln worth of Chinese imports into the US if Beijing retaliates, which looks likely to be the case. USDJPY dipped to a low of 111.66, the lowest level seen since last Thursday, before recouping to the 112.00 level, putting the pair at net firmer levels on the day. Even the AUDJPY cross, which has proven to be sensitive to the worsening Sino-US trade war, rebounded out of a three-session low to net higher levels on the day.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.994%, after pulling back from levels above 3% yesterday. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.1 bp at 0.107% after coming back from yesterday’s holiday. Japanese markets rallied in catch up trade and Topix and Nikkei gained 1.90% and 1.63% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is down -0.76%, and while Chinese equities initially seemed to shrug off the confirmation of additional Trump tariffs worth USD 200 bln, they have now pared early gains and are little changed – the Hang Seng up 0.01%, and the Shanghai Comp down -0.04%. PBOC’s alarm bells are clearly ringing louder and the bank has injected 200 bln Yuan with reverse repos today, on top of MLF operations that added 265 bln of new one year loans. Bloomberg highlighted looming challenges in the form of quarter end cash demand, and huge maturities in Q4 for MLF loans and corporate debt. At the same time, some feel that after the sharp correction in Chinese equities and with mid-term elections looming for Trump, a sustained recovery for Chinese stocks may be on the horizon, especially since markets do not appear to have priced in much of a risk-fallout for US equities. US stock futures are heading south today and oil prices are down with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.54 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance – Expectations – This important figure for the Japanese economy usually has a large impact on the currency. August’s trade balance is expected to deteriorate to YEN-468Bln, compared to YEN-231.9Bln in July, despite an expected increase in exports.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Expectations – Sales in Canada are expected to have slowed to 1.0% m/m in July, from 1.1% in June.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th September 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Outlook: Global yields continue to trend higher as stock markets shrug off the latest escalation of the US-Sino trade spat. 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.480% in early trade, the 2-year is up 0.4 bp at -0.531%. 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from yesterday’s highs, but remains above the 3% mark at 3.0465% and 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.112% as stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a strong close in Asia overnight. FTSE 100 futures are moving higher with US futures ahead of key inflation data for the UK today, which is expected to show the headline rate falling back to 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the previous month. The data calendar also has Eurozone current account data and a German 10-year Bund auction.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.7 bp, but are still holding above the 3% mark at 3.05%. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.112%, despite the BoJ decision that, as expected, left policy unchanged. Yields remain elevated as stock markets extend their rally and investors look past the latest round of the US-Sino trade spat that saw Beijing announcing retaliatory tariffs on USD 60 bln of US goods and Trump threatening duties on virtually all imports. China’s Premier Li Keqiang said he won’t let the currency devalue to stimulate exports. With traders buying into the belief that a negotiated solution will be found eventually, Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 1.53% and 1.33% respectively despite the uptick in yields. The CSI 300 is up 1.54%, after already rising more than 2% yesterday, and the Hang Seng gained 1.25%. US stock futures are narrowly mixed, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading just under USD 70 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Core Consumer Price Index – Expectations –Inflationary pressures are expected to have eased a bit in the UK and consensus forecasts estimate inflation to stand at 1.8% y/y, versus 1.9% y/y.
US Housing Starts and Building Permits- Expectations – Housing starts should continue to move upwards according to consensus forecasts, while building permits are expected to remain at the same level as last month.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th September 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 3.061% and 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.110%. Yields have come quite a way over the past week and Treasury yields are still holding above the 3% mark, but the stock market rally started to stutter during the Asian session with indices turning mixed. The Dow Jones still managed a solid gain yesterday, but the NASDAQ closed slightly lower and in Asia stocks drifted. Japanese indices traded near three-month highs, but at these levels it seems investors are getting cautious as trade concerns continue to cloud over the outlook. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.045 and -0.12% respectively. It would not be the first time that Chinese indices rebound late in session, but it seems for now markets are consolidating and waiting for further news. US futures are also narrowly mixed, oil prices are higher and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel.
FX Action: USDJPY has drifted lower, posting a two-day low at 112.07 in a moderate move driven by a softer Dollar. Risk appetite has continued to hold up with Asian stock markets gaining, albeit modestly, for the most part, and the main Chinese indexes lifting out of negative territory in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. Japanese PM Abe won a leadership challenge by a landslide, as expected, which puts him on track to becoming Japan’s longest serving prime minister. In the bigger view, USDJPY is currently trading in the upper reaches of a broadly sideways range that’s been unfolding for some 10 weeks now. Great odds have been placed for a sustained move downward rather than a sustained move upward as China looks to be digging for trade war escalation (at least until after the midterm elections in the US), which could lead to an increased safe haven premium being put on the Yen. USDJPY has resistance at 112.44-45, and support at 111.77-80.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
SNB Rate & Monetary Policy – Expectations – The SNB is widely expected to maintain its expansionary policy, with the deposit rate to be left -0.75% and the 3-month Libor range Libor at -1.25% to -0.25%. The central bank is also expected to reiterate that it will “remain active in the foreign exchange market as necessary while taking the overall currency situation into consideration”.
UK Retail Sales – Expectations – The Retail sales are anticipated a 0.2% m/m contraction in August, correcting after rising 0.7% m/m in the month prior.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index should rise to 19.0 in September, from a 2-year low of 11.9.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st September 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to rally during the Asian session after a record close on Wall Street yesterday. Risk appetite is back after robust US data yesterday added to hopes that the fallout from the latest round of US-China tariffs can be contained and that there will eventually be deals on trade and Brexit, despite little progress at the informal EU summit yesterday. Improvements in emerging market assets have also helped to underpin confidence with investors buying back into the rout. 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.3 bp to 3.076%, 10 year JGB yields jumped 1.6 bp to 0.125% and 30-year yields rose 4.4 bp as BoJ cut bond purchases. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.01% and 1.06% respectively underpinned by a weaker Yen, the Hang Seng has gained 1.13% so far and the CSI 300 is up 1.80%. US stock futures are equally broadly higher, Oil prices are slightly lower and the November WTI future is trading at USD 70.25 per barrel. Today’s calendar includes Eurozone PMI readings as well as public finance data for the UK.
FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to a fresh two-month high at 112.80 amid a backdrop of a coursing risk-on theme in global markets. The USA30 and USA500 hit record highs yesterday, and Asian stocks have rallied robustly across the board. JP225 hit a 4-month high, and the Shanghai Composite a two-week high, with both showing gains of 1% or more. Expectations for China to turn the fiscal stimulus tap, among other measures, have been helping underpin sentiment in Asia, while the unexpectedly low starting tariff rate of 10% in Trump’s latest move on Chinese imports this week, along with tech sector exemptions, have helped buoy sentiment Global fundamentals are otherwise solid, despite the threat from the trade war escalation (with Beijing not expected to negotiate until after the mid-term elections in the US).
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone Sep. PMI – Expectations – The Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected at 54.5, down from 54.6 in the previous month, and expect the services reading to improve slightly to 54.5, which should leave the composite unchanged from August at 54.5. This still suggests ongoing expansion, but would also confirm the decelerating trend.
Canada CPI & Retail Sales – Expectations – CPI is expected to hold steady in August after the 0.5% surge in July. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.9% y/y pace in August, easing slightly from the 3.0% pace in July that was the top of BoC’s 1-3% target range. Canada retail sales values are expected to rise 0.5% in July after the 0.2% drop in June.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th September 2018.
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FX News Today
FX Action: USDJPY posted a two-month high of 112.98 during the Tokyo morning session, which was the product of a bout of general Yen selling capped out in the face of Japanese exporter offers. The release of the minutes of the recent BoJ meeting had little impact, nor did a speech by BoJ Governor Kuroda, who said it will take longer than expected to bring inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. China said talks with the US cannot take place under threats and pressure, while the US approved of a $330 mln arms sale to Taiwan, which is sure to ruffle feathers in Beijing.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields climbed 0.8 bp to 2.096%, and JGB yields picked up 0.4 bp to 0.123%, after returning from holiday. There were no real surprises in the BoJ minutes from the July meeting and the JGB curve continues to steepen. Australia’s 10-year bond jumped 5.1 bp amid stop selling after the 10-year future broke contract lows and following a pick up in Treasury yields yesterday. Chinese 10-year rates meanwhile declined. Stock markets also traded mixed, as Japan and China returned from holiday. Trade concerns remained high on the agenda as China warned that it won’t agree to trade talks unless the US stops threatening additional tariffs. US political developments also clouded over confidence. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.15% respectively and CSI lost -1.08%, while US futures are marginally lower. Oil prices rose further above the USD 72 per barrel mark.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The level of consumer confidence is usually a leading indicator of consumer spending. Expectations are that the Confidence Index will be less than last month’s but will remain high nonetheless.
S&P Case-Shiller House Price Index – Expectations – Housing prices are an important indicator given that rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity. Expectations are that the Index will grow by 6.2% y/y compared to 6.3% last month
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th September 2018.
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FX News Today
FX Action: USDJPY traded above 113.00 for the first time since mid July, posting a high at 113.02, before settling to a narrow range just under the figure. AUDJPY concurrently posted a three-session high and while EURJPY also lifted, the cross remained just off recent five-month highs. Buoyant stock markets have kept the Yen on a softening path. China equities recorded gains, with the Shanghai Composite showing a 1.3% gain in the first hour of trading in the PM session, posting an eight-week high earlier on the day. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) index is showing a 0.4% advance, although also off its highs. Chinese equities were lifted by news that MSCI is considering quadrupling the weighting of Chinese big-caps in its global benchmarks.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 3.093%, 10-year JGB yields pulled back -0.6 bp to 0.117%. Yields remain at high level ahead of the Fed decision today and as global central banks continue to reign in stimulus. Asian stock markets meanwhile moved mostly higher, although Japanese indices traded mixed with the Topix retreating from its highest level in almost eight months. Hong Kong returned from holiday and rallied in catch up trade, while Chinese markets got a boost from reports that MSCI is considering to lift the weight of shares in its global indexes. US President Trump told the UN that the trade deficit with China “is just not acceptable”. Meanwhile the Asian Development Bank warned that the US-China trade war is dimming Asia’s growth outlook for next year. The Topix is down -0.26%, against a 0.30% gain in the Nikkei. Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied 1.83% and 1.84% respectively, the ASX is little changed at +0.02%. U.S. futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are slightly lower, but the front end Nymex future continues to trade above USD 72 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – monetary policy decisions are much awaited as they impact all aspects of the monetary section of the economy. Today, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 2.25%.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th September 2018.
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FX News Today
FX Action: Both the Dollar and the Yen have risen against most other currencies, with the Japanese currency outperforming its North American counterpart. This comes amid a risk-off backdrop, with Asian stock markets having come under pressure following a firm start. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 1% at its close, while the Shanghai Composite reversed out of an AM-session gain, and is presently at its lows and showing a 0.6% loss in the second hour of the PM session. EURUSD and EURJPY have ebbed to respective one-week lows of 1.1691 and 131.67. USDJPY edged out a three-day low at 112.60, while EURJPY posted a one-week low at 131.77. AUDJPY, which has been the biggest mover out of the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates, also traded at one-week lows with a loss of 0.5%. Focus will now fall on Italy. There have been reports that a Cabinet meeting is scheduled today to finalize the Economic and Financial Document after being postponed “due to new complications” as the coalition government struggles to find common ground over the budget. This issue, if unresolved, has the potential to send the Euro sharply lower.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields lost earlier gains and are down 0.9 bp at 3.039%, 10-year JGB yields declined -0.3 bp to 0.110% and bonds were generally sought as stock markets declined. Wall Street turned negative late in the session following the FOMC meeting, which hiked rates as expected and removed the “accommodative” language. At the same time the “neutral” rate was lifted and Fed continues to pencil in another move this year, and three more for 2019, with Powell saying that Fed could raise rates past the neutral level. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.81% and -0.54% respectively, Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -0.27% and -0.32% and the ASX lost -0.19% so far. US stock futures are trying to move higher though, indicating that investors will quickly recover from the Fed statement that is, in some ways, ambiguous for the markets. Oil prices are higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 72.34 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US Jobless Claims – Expectations – Jobless claims are expected to increase, with consensus forecasts putting the number of new claimants at 210,000 compared to 201,000 last month.
GDP Price Index – Expectations – The GDP Price Index is a broader index than the CPI, with different weights, and also provides a different view of price developments in the economy. Consensus Forecasts suggest that prices will have increased by 3.0% in Q2, compared to 3.2% in Q1.
Personal Consumption Expenditures – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation index is expected to increase by 1.9% in Q2, same as last quarter, with the core index expected to increase by 2%.
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation – Expectations – Durable Goods orders are expected to have increased by 0.5% in August, compared to 0.2% in July.
ECB Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to deliver opening remarks at the European Systemic Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt.
Fed Powell Speech – The Fed President is set to speak at the Business Leader’s day in Washington.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 09th October 2018.
FX News Today
FX Action:USDJPY has settled around 113.00, above the eight-session low printed yesterday at 112.82. Ranges have been narrow in currency markets, despite risk appetite remaining firmly on the negative side of the dial. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex Japan) Index hit a 17-month low. The IMF cut its growth forecasts for both this year and next, including downgrades of the outlooks for the US, Europe and China. PBoC set the USD-CNY reference rate at 6.9019. Often times, such a backdrop would see the Yen appreciate, though the rise in US over Japan yield differential appears to be providing offsetting support for USDJPY. The 10-year US Treasury yield has today lifted to a fresh 7-year highs above 3.25%.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 3.239%, Treasury yields climbed 0.1 bp to 0.146%, while stocks traded mixed during the Asian session. Chinese and Hong Kong markets stabilized after yesterday’s sharp correction in Chinese stocks that were partly driven by catch up trades. A stronger Yen meanwhile weighed on Japanese equities. IMF warnings on the global growth outlook meanwhile lifted pressure on bonds, although the IMF referred mainly to growth outside the US and tax cut fuelled expansion in the US will continue to keep the Fed on a tightening path. Still, some are expecting BoJ to act more aggressively to curb the uptick in long yields. Topix and Nikkei are currently down -1.84% and -1.30% respectively. The ASX fell -0.97% though, and U.S. stock futures are also down while oil prices climbed higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 74.67 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – The September starts are expected to improve to a 210k pace in September from 201.0k in August.
MPC Member Broadbent Speech – BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent is due to testify on the use of the Retail Price Index before the Economic Affairs Committee, in London.
Gov Council Member Wilkins Speech – Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appears in a panel at the Empowering Women in the Workplace Seminar at an IMF event in Bali Indonesia.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after sliding yesterday with Trump suggesting he would prefer the Fed to slow down the tightening cycle. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.144%, and bond markets were generally supported during the Asian session, while stocks traded mixed. Mainland China bourses were under pressure and the CSI 300 has lost -0.47% so far. Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are also down -0.185 and -0.26% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.49% though and Topix and Nikkei gained 0.24% and 0.10% as tech stocks stabilized after a three day rout. The Kospi lost -0.87% as Trump suggested he will not meet with North Korea’s leader until after the midterm elections on November 6. US futures are trading narrowly mixed and oil prices are slightly lower on the day, trading at USD 74.71 per barrel.
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.4 bp at 0.532% in opening trade. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.4 bp at 3.210% after falling back yesterday and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.145%. The global rise in long rates seems to have halted for now and Bunds got an additional boost from a fresh wave of save haven flows as Italian bonds are once again under pressure this morning, with 10-year BTP rates up 4.4 bp at 3.512%. Stock futures are mostly lower in Europe and marginally higher in the US after a mixed session in Asia. Italian fiscal jitters and Brexit developments remain in focus, while the data calendar also livens up today with production numbers out of France and the UK.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, with Manufacturing Production expected to have increased to the same extent.
UK Real GDP – Expectations – UK GDP is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, compared to 0.3% in July, where the World Cup effect took place.
US Producer Price Index ex Food and Energy – The US PPI is expected to have increased by 2.5% in September, compared to 2.3% in August, on account of higher inflation in the country.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th October 2018.
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FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -5.5 bp at 0.495% in opening trade, French yields down -4.6 bp and most peripheral yields are also down as the stock market rout deepened during the Asian session. Italian BTPs are once again the exception and the 10-year yield backed up 2.3 bp to 3.523% amid ongoing fiscal concerns. Elsewhere bond markets are being supported though as investors dump equities amid growing concerns about earnings and the global outlook as trade tensions increasingly show up in earnings reports. European stock futures are down 1.4-1.9% in early trade, underperforming versus US futures, which are down 0.7-0.8% at the moment. Italy and Brexit developments will remain in focus today, while the data calendar focuses on inflation data out of France, Spain, Sweden. Released overnight, the UK RICS house price balance fell back to 2% from 1% in the previous month.
FX Action: USDJPY has posted a 3-week low at 111.97, and EURJPY and AUDJPY have both seen 1-month lows. Yen outperformance, although relatively moderate, drove the moves amid a backdrop of plunging stock markets, which has seen the Japanese currency pick up safe haven demand. Wall Street saw its worst day in over eight months yesterday, with the USA500 closing with a 3.3% loss, and USA500 futures have extended lower by a further 1% in overnight trading with Asian markets hit hard. Japan’s Nikkei is down 4.4% heading into the Tokyo close while the Shanghai Composite is off by 4.6% in the first hour of trading after the lunch break. The rise in US and global yields over the last week, which has come amid signs that inflation is making a return, is getting principal blame in market narratives (while Trump blamed the “crazy” Fed), in what seems like a post-financial crises watershed. The consequences of trade protectionism is also in the mix.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
BOE’s Governor Carney & MPC Member Vlieghe speeches
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – In-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced ECB’s decision on regarding the interest rates.
US Consumer Price Index and Core – Expectations –September CPI is expected to post increases of 0.2% for both the headline and core, after respective gains of 0.2% and 0.1% in August.
Canadian New housing Price Index – Expectations – The new housing price index is projected to improve 0.1% in August after the 0.1% gain in July.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th October 2018.
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FX News Today
FX Action: USDJPY has lifted to the 112.30-40 area after posting a 25-day low at 111.83 during the late New York PM session yesterday. The low was followed by broad Dollar declines in the wake of the softer than expected US CPI data yesterday, which has taken the edge out of Fed tightening expectations. Gains in USDJPY in Tokyo, however, have reflected broader Yen weakness, which has seen safe-haven premium unwind as stocks in Asia stabilize, with S&P 500 futures managing gains of more than 1.2%, after the cash index closed on Wall Street with a 2.1% decline. EURJPY and most other Yen crosses have also lifted. In the news today, a 5.3 earthquake hit Japan’s Kanto region, which is reportedly manageable for Japan. No tsunami warning has been issued. A senior official from the IMF, which today started its annual meeting in Bali, said that it was “too early” for Japan to talk about normalizing monetary policy while encouraging Tokyo to make structural reforms to accompany the stimulus.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and gained 2.9 bp to reach 3.178%. 10-year JGB yields are unchanged at 0.136%, as stock markets bounced back in Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index moved up from the lowest level since May 2017, led by bourses in Hong Kong and South Korea. As of 05:24GMT Topix and Nikkei were still down -0.35% and -0.34% respectively, but the Hang Seng bounced 1.67% and the CSI 300 was up 1.30%. Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp still declined at the start of the session, but are now at 0.53% and -0.06% respectively after a better than expected trade surplus. Kospi and Kosdaq are up 1.98% and 3.06% and the ASX gained 0.20%. Sentiment remains fragile, but US stock futures are posting gains of more than 1% so it seems markets are closing a very volatile week on a less pessimistic note. With central banks on course to end stimulus and Fed Chairman Powell stressing last week that the central bank is a “long way” from neutral rates, concerns remain that the Fed may tighten too much and the IMF warning about the impact of a tightening of financing conditions markets will be struggling to find a new equilibrium, with overreactions also likely as a result of heightened uncertainties. This leaves a wide range of possible outcomes for the world economy.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Euro Area Industrial Production – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, compared to a reduction of 0.8% in July.
US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Expectations – The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to pose slight gains in October, moving to 100.4, compared to 100.1 in September.
Support and Resistance Levels
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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th October 2018.
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Main Macro Events This Week
Divergence had been the name of the game so far this year as the trade war played out and the US outperformed the globe in the growth and equity sweepstakes. But the US yield breakout in October seems to be leveling the field again. The majority of equity indices around the world are negative on the month, while the US and Japan double-digit returns on the year have been cut in half. Looking ahead this week for fundamental signals, US retail sales should improve, though housing data may start to register a hit from Hurricane Florence.
United States: The week of October 15 will be a busy one in the US with several economic indicators as well as minutes from the September 25-26 FOMC meeting on the calendar. In terms of economic indicators, retail activity will be the focus, and a healthy gain is expected in retail sales in September. The Empire State and Philly Fed indexes should be mixed, but will remain at strong levels. Another solid gain is anticipated in industrial production while housing starts will likely decline and existing home sales should post a small gain. Finally, business inventories are expected to rise as is the leading economic index.
The economic calendar includes retail sales seen rising 0.5% in September (Monday) in headline sales and an ex-auto gain of 0.3%, after disappointing August data. Empire State index is estimated to rise to 21.0 in October (Monday), from a 5-month low of 19.0 in September. Industrial production is expected to rise 0.4% in September (Tuesday), following 0.4% gains in August and July, Also on tap are the NAHB housing market index (Tuesday), seen rising to 68 in October from 67, along with JOLTS job openings. September housing starts (Wednesday) are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too (Wednesday). The Philly Fed index should moderate to 21.0 in October (Thursday) from 22.9 in September and initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 6k to 220k in the week ended October 13 (Thursday), following a 214k reading in the week of October 6, as we may see a boost from Hurricane Michael. The leading economic index should post a 0.5% rise in September, a 12th straight monthly increase. The week rounds out with existing home sales that may post a lean 0.2% increase in September (Friday), to 5.35 mln, following a flat reading of 5.34 mln in August.
Canada: Canada’stop tier releases book-end this week’s docket, with the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey due Monday and the September CPI due Friday. The Bank’s Business Outlook Survey for autumn will likely show increased worry over trade. In the data calendar, CPI is seen holding steady in September on a month comparable basis (0.0%) after the 0.1% rise in August. Annual CPI growth is projected to slow to a 2.6% y/y pace in September from 2.8% in August and the lofty 3.0% growth rate in July, adding further support to the Bank’s view that the run-up in CPI through July was due to temporary factors that are now unwinding. Manufacturing sales values (Wednesday) are projected to fall 0.5% in August after the 0.9% improvement in July. August retail sales (Wednesday) are expected to improve 0.5% after the 0.3% gain in July.
Europe: The tensions between Rome and Brussels are likely to continue and the European Council meeting this week may also not bring the hoped for Brexit breakthrough. EU-27 leaders will hold a working dinner on Wednesday, before the official summit on Thursday and while there were signs that UK Chancellor May’s team are closer than ever to a deal with the EU’s Brexit negotiators, it is already clear that Brexiteers as well as Northern Ireland’s DUP, which May relies on in parliament, will be putting up a fight. Meanwhile the time for a deal that also has to pass national parliaments is truly running out.
Data releases focus on German ZEW Investor Sentiment (Tuesday), where slight dip should be posted in the October reading to -10.9 from -10.6 in September, although with the large volatility in markets this past week, uncertainty is higher than usual and much may depend on the timing of the answers. The final reading of September Eurozone HICP inflation (Tuesday) is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation. Core inflation remains at just 0.9%, giving Draghi room to ignore high headline rates for now. Other data releases include Eurozone trade (Tuesday),as well as BoP and current account data (Friday).
UK: Brexit negotiations are coming to a head into this week’s Brussel’s summit. The data calendar is busy this week, highlighted by monthly labor data (Tuesday), inflation figures (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday). The labor market report is expected to show unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.0% in August, and average household pay to also hold unchanged from the previous month, at 2.6% y/y in the three months to August (medians same). As for inflation, the headline CPI should dip to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure seen ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August. For September retail sales, a 0.3% m/m contraction could be released, after 0.3% growth in the month prior, with the y/y rate seen lifting to 3.7% y/y from 3.3%
Japan: The September trade report (Thursday) should reveal a narrowed deficit to JPY 100.0 bln from the prior 438.4 bln shortfall when imports rose to a 15.3% y/y gain, while exports climbed to 6.6% y/y. September national CPI (Friday) likely cooled to 1.2% y/y from 1.3% overall, and to 0.8% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis. That won’t be good news for the BoJ.
China: The September CPI (Tuesday) is expected to rise to 2.4% y/y from 2.3%, while September PPI (Tuesday) is penciled in slowing to 3.5% y/y from 4.1%. All eyes will be on Q3 GDP (Friday).Growth is seen decelerating modestly to 6.5% y/y from 6.7%, though that nevertheless could add to rising concerns over the bearish impact on growth from the US trade imbroglio. September industrial production (Friday) should pull back to a 5.9% y/y pace from 6.1%. September retail sales and fixed investment are also due (Friday), with the former forecast at 8.9% y/y from 9.0%, and the latter at an unchanged 5.3% y/y.
Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes to the October meeting (Tuesday).Deputy Governor Debelle speaks (Wednesday) at the 2018 Citi Conference, Sydney. Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 25.0k in September after the 44.0k gain in October. The unemployment rate is seen at 5.3%, matching September.
New Zealand: The calendar has CPI (Tuesday), expected to expand 0.8% (q/q, sa) in Q3 after the 0.4% gain in Q2. The annual growth rates is projected to accelerate to a 1.8% pace from 1.5% in Q2. There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8. No change is expected to the 1.75% policy setting next month and through 2019.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th October 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.171% and JGB yields rose 1.0 bp to 0.142%. Bond yields are resuming their uptrend as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session, although Oil prices are rising as Saudi tensions spike limited gains. There are also concerns over China’s GDP data later in the week, which markets fear will show the impact of US-Sino trade tensions. Japanese markets managed to bounce back from the 19-months low yesterday as Topix and Nikkei are up 0.13% and 0.41% respectively. The ASX is up 0.56% but the Hang Seng has lost -0.09% so far and the CSI -0.13% and Shanghai Comp and Shenzen Comp are down -0.14% and -0.21% respectively. US futures are moving higher though, in line with the overall improving trend in Asia. The front end Nymex future is trading slightly under USD 72 per barrel.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund future opened at 158.49, down from a close of 158.59 on Monday. The 10-year cash yield is also down -0.3 bp at 0.497% in the opening session after an unexpected dip in German import price inflation at the start of the session. Generally, global bonds are back under pressure as stock market sentiment stabilized during the Asian session and 10-year Treasury rates are up 1.1 bp at 3.1675. The stalled Brexit talks, as well increased spending targets in Italy and now Spain remain in focus as does the fallout from the Bavarian election on the central government in Berlin. The data calendar focuses on UK labour market data as well as German ZEW investor confidence, with the latter expected to fall slightly.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Labour Market Data – Expectations – The UK Unemployment rate is expected to remain flat at 4%, while Average Earnings should increase by 2.8% in August, compared to 2.9% in July.
US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization – Expectations – Industrial Production is expected to have increased by 0.3% in September, and Capacity Utilization to have increased to 78.2% compared to 78.1% in August.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th October 2018.
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FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury and JGB yields gained 0.2 bp each and are trading at 3.165% and 0142% respectively, but despite broad gains on Asian stock markets, Treasuries are down from earlier highs and most government bonds in Asia managed to move higher.Japanese bourses continued to bounce in the wake of the tech stock recovery in the US yesterday, and with earnings from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Netflix adding support. Topix and Nikkei are up 1.35% and 1.05%. The ASX also managed a strong 1.12% gain, but Chinese bourses are underperforming. Hong Kong was closed today. US stock futures are actually posting slight losses, highlighting not only that stocks still have a way to go before they have recouped last week’s losses, but also that sentiment is still fragile as investors struggle with the sharp rise in yields. Markets are now looking ahead to today’s release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. The local calendar was quiet and Oil prices are trading around the USD 72 per barrel mark, after the unexpected drop in American crude stockpiles and as investors keep a nervous eye on simmering tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia over the missing journalist. For now, Trump seems to be giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt.
FX Action: USDJPY posted a 3-session high at 112.42 before settling around 112.14. AUDJPY posted a 1-week high before ebbing back, while the likes of EURJPY and GBPJPY have remained below their respective highs from yesterday, although also running higher during the Tokyo AM session. The weakness of the Yen has been concomitant with an improvement in risk appetite, with Wall Street closing solidly higher following a tech-led rally founded on encouraging earnings reports and stock markets in Asian, outside of China, following suit. The Nikkei 225 is showing a 1.3% gain, while China’s SSE index is down by 0.7% on nagging concerns about the impact of the US-China trade war. USDJPY has been in a choppy range rooted on the 112.00 level for nearly a week now, consolidating after dropping back from levels near 114.50 in the week before. Fundamentals (yield differentials and the associated contrast between Fed and BoJ policy paths) remain supportive, but the spectre of risk aversion has been an offsetting bearish force.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Sep CPI – Expectations – The UK inflation is anticipated to headline CPI dipping to 2.6% y/y in September from 2.7% in the month prior, with the core CPI figure ebbing to a 2.0% y/y rate from 2.1% in August.
EU 27-Summit on Brexit – European Union leaders are expected to meet in Brussels to discuss a possible Brexit deal with Britain, over dinner.
Eurozone Sept. HICP – Expectations –The final reading of September Eurozone HICP is unlikely to hold any surprise and confirm the headline rate at 2.1% y/y, above the ECB’s 2% limit for price stability, but mainly due to higher energy and food price inflation.
US Sept. Housing starts, Permits & EIA inventories – Expectations – They are forecast to drop 2.5% to 1.250 mln, while permits should rise 2.5% to 1.280 mln. Also slated are MBA mortgage stats. All of the September housing data are at risk for a hit from hurricane Florence. EIA energy inventory data is on tap too.
FOMC Meeting Minutes – The FOMC minutes will provide an assessment as regards the views of the Fed’s policymakers about the interest-setter’s future stance.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th October 2018.
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FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.0 bp at 0.416% in opening trade, versus losses in Treasury and JGB yields, although the US 10-year is up from yesterday’s lows and an early rebound in BTPs is adding pressure on Bunds at the open. Stock market sentiment also started to stabilise during the Asian session, although Chinese markets have already started to erase early gains and while CSI 300 and SSE are still hanging on to gains of 0.42% and 0.51% respectively, the Shenzhen is already back into negative territory. Market sentiment remains cautious then and likely prone to setbacks amid geopolitical tensions and concerns about the impact of tightening financial conditions. Italy’s budget spat with the Commission and Brexit talks will remain in focus. The European data releases today include preliminary PMI readings for the Eurozone, with the manufacturing PMI seen dipping to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7. The Eurozone also has M3 money supply growth and the UK releases data on mortgage approvals.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone manufacturing PMI – Expectations – EMU PMIs are expected to decline to 53.0 from September’s 53.2, while the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 (median 54.4) from 54.7.
US New home sales – Expectations – September new home sales are estimated rising 0.5% to 632k, after bouncing 3.5% in August from declines in the previous two months.
BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – A 25 bp hike to 1.75% is widely expected. Also, Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins will hold a press conference from 15:15 GMT. For the whole story read our article.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information pThis material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th October 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -1.7 bp at 0.376% in opening trade, Treasury yields have fallen back to just over 3.1% in the wake of the ongoing market rout, while 10-year JGBs are down -1.6 bp at 0.105%. US markets wiped out this year’s gains yesterday, Asian stocks markets are also sharply lower, while US futures are stabilising and UK futures are pointing to further losses in Europe. In this environment Draghi is likely to sound cautious at today’s press conference even as the ECB is set to confirm the phasing out of net asset purchases by the end of the year. The rate guidance will likely remain unchanged, with no hike planned until after the summer of 2019 at the earliest. Norges Bank is also expected to keep rates unchanged today, while data releases including the German Ifo survey and the UK CBI retailing survey come with the risk to the downside.
Asian Market Wrap: US Treasury yields have moved up slightly from lows and are up 0.4 bp on the day at 3.107%, still considerably below recent highs after yesterday’s tech stock driven rout on US markets was followed by further losses in Asia. JGB yields corrected -1.4 bp and are at 0.107%, after the NASDAQ closed down -4.4% yesterday and U.S. stocks wiped out this year’s gains after mixed earnings reports from the likes of AT&T and Texas Instruments. In Asia Topix and Nikkei dropped -2.8% and -3.5% respectively. The Hang Seng lost nearly 2% so far and Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses wiped out -1.385 and -1.92%, while the ASX declined -2.8%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was pushed deeper into a bear market. Concerns that the earnings momentum is levelling off and that tighter financial conditions, coupled with ongoing trade tensions are hitting the global growth outlook are prompting investors to rethink lofty equity valuations. There are plenty of geopolitical risks from the Kashoggi fallout to the prospect of a fresh arms race between the US and Russia. US futures are marginally higher, leaving some chance that US markets will at least try to stabilise today.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
ECB Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – ECB is not expected to change its interest rate, as per the guidance it has offered in the latest ECB Report.
US Durable Goods Orders- Expectations – US Durable Goods Orders excl. Transportation are expected to continue their increase by 0.3%, compared to an increase of 0.1% last month.
Pending Home Sales – Expectations – Pending home sales are expected to have decreased by 0.1% compared to a 1.8% decrease last month.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer:This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th October 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
FX Update: The Yen has traded with a firming bias while the Australian Dollar and other Dollar bloc currencies have underperformed amid fresh risk aversion in global markets. USDJPY has drifted to the lower 112.0s, approaching the 11-day low seen on Wednesday at 111.82, while EURJPY ebbed to a two-month low and AUDJPY to a fresh six-week low, reflecting renewed safe haven demand for the Japanese currency as stock markets in Asia, and U.S. equity index futures, flagged soft revenue and guidance from Amazon and Google. USA500 futures were showing a 0.9% loss, nearly halving the regular-session gain the cash USA00 index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The JPN225, meanwhile, closed 0.4% for the worse. The PBoC set the USDCNY reference rate at 6.9510, the highest fixing since 2016 and up from 6.9492 yesterday. In data, the October Tokyo CPI figure met expectations at 1.5% y/y. EURUSD has found a toehold after printing a two-month low late yesterday at 1.1356 following ECB President Draghi’s dialing down of hawkishness at yesterday’s post-policy meeting press conference.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -2.1 bp at 3.096%, 10-year JGB yields lost a further -0.3 bp and are at 0.102%. Stock markets started mostly higher during the Asian session after a strong close on Wall Street, but many indices struggled to hang on to gains. U.S. futures are also heading south again as Amazon and Alphabet results dented optimism for tech stocks once again. As of 5:20GMT Topix and Nikkei were down -0.05% and -0.16% respectively. The Hang Seng Was down -0.88%, Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses lost -0.46% and -0.21% while the ASX managed a marginal 0.02% gain. Volatility seems to remain the order of the day amid the multitude of geopolitical risks and amid concerns that earnings have peaked and will increasingly reflect the impact of trade tensions.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
US Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure on the US is expected to come out at 3.3% at an annualized rate, down from 4.2% last quarter, also on account of the Fed rate hikes and the hurricane season.
US Personal Consumption Expenditures Prices – Expectations – The Fed’s favourite inflation measure is expected to remain stable at 2%, right on the Fed target.
Draghi Speech – Expectations – The ECB President is expected to speak at the National Bank of Belgium.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th October 2018.
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Main Macro Events This Week
The hand-off to November may not be a smooth one judging by the recent swings in sentiment and determination by the Fed to continue tightening. US employment data will take top billing with a week to go until the FOMC meeting, though it is expected to bounce back from hurricane-depressed levels. The earnings calendar remains a full one, with potential tricks or treats hiding in the weeds of the corporate reports. And there are midterm elections lurking just ahead. Asia will digest a heavy dose of month-end data from Japan, along with the BoJ meeting, though no change is expected there. China PMIs could highlight slowdown risks in the region as well. Budget struggles in Italy and rising tension with the EU remain in the spotlight, along with the potential for leadership showdowns in Germany and the UK, as Brexit negotiations, terms and approval remain far from certain. Similar to the more cautious tone from ECB’s Draghi, who is facing a lorry load of political risks, BoE MPC is expected to hold its repo and QE settings intact.
United States: The markets will absorb a slew of top tier US releases just ahead of the November 7-8 FOMC meeting. Top of the economic calendar will be the October Payrolls report (Friday),estimated to rise 200k, after a hurricane-depressed 134k reading in September. Personal income is expected to reach a 0.3% gain in September (Monday) after a similar pace in the prior two months and in line with the implied gain in wages from the September employment report. Case-Shiller home prices for August are due (Tuesday), along with consumer confidence. MBA mortgage market data (Wednesday) is due, the ADP Employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern (Wednesday) near 60.5 in October.
Initial jobless claims are estimated to slip 2k to 213k in the week ended October 27 (Thursday),following a 5k rise to 215k in the week of October 20, while nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to a 2.4% pace in Q3, following a firm 2.9% gain in Q2 that should be revised up to 3.0%. The ISM index is estimated to slip to 59.4 in October (Thursday), from 59.8 in September and a 14-year high of 61.4 in August. Vehicle sales are forecast to slow to a still-strong 17.2 mln pace in October (Thursday), after a 4.5% surge to 17.4 mln in September. Rounding out the week will be trade deficit (Friday), forecast to widen to -$54.1 bln in September from -$53.2 bln and factory orders, expected to rise 0.5% in September, after a 2.4% jump in August.
Canada: August GDP (Wednesday) is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July, which would keep growth on track for the 2.0% pace. October employment (Friday) is projected to expand 25.0k after the 63.3k surge in September. The Trade Balance (Friday) is expected at C$0.4 bln from the C$0.5 bln surplus in August. The Industrial Product Price Index for October is due on Wednesday. The Markit Canada manufacturing PMI for October is scheduled for release on Thursday. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins appear at the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Tuesday). Poloz and Wilkins address the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce (Wednesday).
Europe: The data calendar is very busy. Despite the mixed confidence data the flash reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP growth (Tuesday) is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2, largely thanks to a recovery in France. Widespread strike action had cut French GDP growth to just 0.2% q/q in Q2, and with peace restored the economic expansion is expected at 0.4% q/q in Q3, which should help to compensate for the likely weaker number out of Germany, which will be released later in the month. Looking ahead, PMI and Ifo surveys are pointing to weaker conditions in Q4 and against that background, the European Commission’s October ESI Economic Confidence Indicator (Tuesday) is expected to fall back to 110.3 from 110.9 in September.
Growth momentum may be slowing, but against that background a further decline is expected in the seasonally adjusted German jobless number of -10K, which should leave the October jobless rate at a record low of 5.1%. The overall Eurozone rate for September (Wednesday) meanwhile is seen falling back to 8.0% (8.1%) from 8.1% in the previous month. Wage growth is also finally picking up, thanks to higher negotiated wages. The preliminary reading of October German HICP (Tuesday) is anticipated to come in at 2.3% y/y, a little faster than September’s 2.2% y/y clip, while overall Eurozone HICP (Wednesday) seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number.
UK: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee gathers this week for its November meeting (announcing Thursday), where no changes to either the repo rate or QE settings are widely expected. The central bank’s quarterly Inflation Report will provide updated projections on inflation and growth, which are expected to be little changed from the previous report in August.
The data calendar this week is busy, featuring September reports from the BoE on lending and money supply (Monday), the October CBI’s distributive sales survey (Tuesday), October Gfk consumer confidence (Wednesday), Markit’s October surveys for Manufacturing and Construction (due Thursday and Friday, respectively). The data carries little market-impacting potential at the current juncture with sentiment formation hinging on Brexit and global events.
Japan: BoJ concludes its 2-day meeting on Wednesday, and is expected to keep policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda’s press conference will be monitored for his outlooks and guidance. As for data, September unemployment (Tuesday) is expected steady at 2.4%, while the job offerers /seekers should be unchanged at 1.63. September industrial production (Wednesday) is forecast contracting to a -1.5% y/y clip from 0.2%. October Consumer Confidence, September Housing Starts, and September Construction Orders (Wednesday) round out the month’s reports. The October manufacturing PMI will be released on Thursday, along with October auto sales.
Australia: Building approvals (Tuesday) are expected to rebound 6.0% in September after the 9.4% drop in August. CPI (Wednesday) is seen expanding at a 0.6% pace in Q3 (q/q) after the 0.4% rise in Q2. CPI is projected at a 2.0% y/y growth rate in Q3, slowing slightly from the 2.1% clip in Q2. The trimmed mean and weighted median CPI, both measures of “core” inflation, are expected to repeat the 1.9% y/y growth rates seen in Q2. The trade surplus (Thursday) is projected to narrow to A$1,400 mln in September from the A$1,604 mln surplus in August. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to grow 0.4% in September (m/m) after the 0.3% rise in August. The import and export price indexes for Q3 are due Thursday, while Q3 PPI is due Friday. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Michele Bullock speaks at the 10th Annual Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney (Tuesday).
New Zealand: The calendar has September building permits (Wednesday). There is nothing from the RBNZ this week. The next meeting is November 8.
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