FX News Today Stock markets struggled after Wall Street closed lower on Monday. US equities slumped as trade optimism gave way to fresh economic concerns after the drop in construction spending. The US may lift tariffs on Chinese imports, will sign off on final deal later in the month (March 27). Bloomberg also reported that some $90 bln (3%) in VAT reductions is planned by China as well. China lowered its official goal for economic growth this year to 6.0% from 6.5%. RBA left official cash rates unchanged at 1.50%, as expected. WTI future is trading at USD 56.36 per barrel. Gold dipped under $1,284 on risk-on trade, before finding prop from stock slump. USDJPY off Friday’s 10-week high at 112.07. EURUSD hit 1-week lows into ECB. Charts of the Day [IMG]
EURUSD crossed the 20-day SMA. In the 1-hour chart, the bearish cross of 50- and 200-period EMA along with the negative configured indicators imply further declines. USDJPY moves for a 3rd day above an ascending triangle, the 200-DMA and on Friday broke the 11-day Resistance. This suggests the strengthening of the positive bias. GBPUSD held in an upwards channel in the daily chart despite 3 negative sessions. Intraday is below 3 MAs, while Support is at 1.3140 and 1.3110. XAUUSD is extended below BB. It found Support at 1,282.80 Next Support at 1,275 and Resistance at yesterday’s peak. Biggest Loser: NZDUSD forms 5 consecutive bearish daily candles, trading below the 20-day SMA, while the long low wings suggest an increasing bearish bias overall. Main Macro Events Today EU Markit PMI Composite – The final Services PMI is expected to be confirmed at 52.3 which should leave the composite reading at 51.4, but with a slight risk to the upside after the marginal revision to the manufacturing PMI. UK Service PMI – The Services PMI reading is expected to come in at 50.0, the dividing line between contraction and expansion. US Home Sales – New home sales are estimated falling 8.7% in December to 600k after a 16.9% surge in November. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – February ISM-NMI index is forecast to rebound to 57.3 after falling 1.3 points to 56.7 in January. BoE Governor Carney – BoE Carney is due to testify on Brexit, inflation, and the economy before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Bond yields declined after Fed’s Rosengren suggested the pause in the rate hike cycle may last several meetings, while Morgan Stanley is now predicting that Treasury yields will continue to drop by the end of the year, and traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of US jobs data on Friday. Australian bonds rallied and the AUD was under pressure as weaker than expected GDP numbers data added to speculation of rate cuts from the RBA, which in turn helped the ASX to gain 0.75%. Overall stock markets traded mixed across Asia with markets reluctant to push out valuations further without more concrete details on the possible US-Sino trade deal. Dovish-leaning BoJ comments failed to give Japanese markets a lift and Topix and Nikkei closed with losses of -0.25% and -0.60% respectively. China’s announcement of measures to boost domestic consumption further this year, helped Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp to gain 0.55% and 0.46% respectively. US stock futures are broadly lower, as are European futures, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.10 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD traded around 1.13, unable to break decisively in either direction, as the post-PMI rally eased. MACD and Stochastics point to an uptrend although MAs are still down. USDJPY managed to maintain its gains, as the short-term MA appear about to break through the longer-term MA and the mid-Bollinger level, supported by the indicators. GBPUSD moved slightly down on account of the Dollar strength, albeit not breaking through the 1.31 mark. Indicators are showing mixed signals. XAUUSD broke through the mid-Bollinger level and has been moving towards its 200HMA. Support level is at 1290, with Resistance at 1320. Biggest Winner: EURAUD gained significantly as RBA Governor Lowe tried to downplay the importance of the housing market slump, arguing that the probabilities are evenly balanced between rate hikes and rate decreases. Main Macro Events Today ADP Employment Change (GMT 13:15) – February’s labour market data are projected to have been improving at a lower rate, at 189K, compared to 213K in January. BoC Rate Statement (GMT 15:00) – BoC is not expected to raise interest rates, a result of weaker than expected Canadian data releases, as well as the overall “wait and see” stance of many Central Banks around the world. US Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 15:30) – The change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week affects both the price of Oil as well as Oil-dependent currencies such as the Loonie and the Aussie. Forecasts are that inventories will rise by 1.2M, compared to a reduction of 8.6M last week. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The Yen and the Swissy edged up as investors sought shelter in safe-haven currencies, and stock markets headed south during the Asian session amid fresh concerns about the global growth outlook, increased US-North Korea tensions, and as traders await more details on a possible US-Sino trade deal. The BoC added its name to the growing list of central banks that are taking a pause to assess current risks, maintaining rates at 1.75% and watering down its rate normalization. Yesterday’s data showed the US trade deficit widening to a 10-year high, which will only increase the risk of further protectionist measures at a time when global trade tensions increasingly weigh on growth prospects. The OECD cut forecasts for the global economy in 2019 and 2020, again yesterday, delivering a bleak assessment of the global economy. However, the prospect of further stimulus measures is keeping bond markets underpinned and the fallout in the stock market appears to be limited. Still, all Asian markets are trading in the red, with the only exception being the ASX which rose by 0.29%. US futures are heading south, however, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.26 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD is trading around 1.13 again, unable to break decisively in either direction, in anticipation of the ECB meeting and the NFP data tomorrow. USDJPY has declined as investors sought shelter in safe-haven currencies, reaching 111.68 and creating a downwards trend towards the 200-HMA at 111.30. GBPUSD moved slightly higher, albeit not breaking through and remaining above the 1.319 mark. MACD, Stochastics and MAs point downwards. XAUUSD broke through its Support level at 1290, and appears to have currently paused at 1284. Indicators are sending mixed signals. Biggest Winner: USDCAD gained significantly as BoC maintains its interest rates unchanged. The pair jumped 20 pips during the meeting and is currently trading at a 2-month high at 1.3442. Main Macro Events Today EU GDP (GMT 10:00) – The European Union’s GDP is expected to come out at 1.2% y/y, the same as the preliminary release in February. ECB Interest Rate Decision (GMT 12:45) – No changes are expected from the ECB meeting, although Mario Draghi’s speech could provide more insights with regards to the potential TLTRO implementation or other possible policy measures. Productivity, Labour Costs, Jobless Claims (GMT 13:30) – Productivity is expected to have slowed down to 1.6% in Q4, compared to 2.3% in the previous quarter, while Labour Costs are expected to have risen by 1.6%, compared to 0.9% in Q3. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have remained at the same level, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined to 1.775M. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Global sell off in stock markets continued during the Asian session. Chinese markets in particular sold off after much weaker than expected trade data and a rare “sell” rating from China’s largest brokerage was taken as a sign that the government wants to limit gains on equity markets. The ECB’s dovish turn and sharp growth revisions have fuelled concerns about the global outlook and sparked a fresh wave of risk aversion. German manufacturing orders slumped -2.6% m/m in February GER30 slumps at 11425.00 area on the EU open. EURUSD plunged below 1.1200 after ECB. USDJPY ebbed to 1-week low, AUDJPY saw 2-week low, amid risk-off backdrop The WTI future is trading at USD 56.38 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD has consolidated around 1.12 after post-ECB plunge into 21-low terrain. The weak bullish candles suggest a weak positive bias. GBPUSD in a ranging market with immediate Resistance at 1.3100 and Support at 1.3065. Overall remains in downtrend with Momentum indicators negatively configured intraday and daily as well. XAUUSD reached 1293 level but remains for 5th day above 1280 which stands a near term Support. It break outside hourly Bollinger Bands could follow by a pullback as it suggest an overextended move. Biggest Winner: USDJPY has dipped to 110.95 from 111.60. The pair broke the the 200-day moving averageand is currently retesting a cross into negative BB area. This along with a decline of positive bias in MACD and Stochastic suggest a possible turn of the outlook into negative one in the medium term. Main Macro Events Today US Housing starts – It should rise 11.3% to a 1.200 mln pace in January after an 11.2% drop to 1.078 mln in December. US NFP – A rather solid February nonfarm payroll report is seen, even if the headline 180k job gain significantly undershoots the 304k January surge and would be the smallest gain since September. Canadian Labor data – Employment is expect to reveal a 20.0k gain in jobs during February after January blasted through expectations with a 66.8k increase. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian session and many indices, first and foremost in China, managed to claw back some of Friday’s losses. Chinese indices led the way after moving past the disastrous trade number from last Friday. While dovish-leaning central banks in general and the additional action from the ECB in particular sparked fears that the global growth outlook is actually worse than anticipated, the fact that there is more support should also be constructive for stock markets in the medium term. BoJ is set to meet this week while it is believed that China and the US are in general agreement on many crucial issues and have held meaningful discussions on foreign exchange, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.57% and 0.47% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.68%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 1.47% and 1.35% respectively and the Shenzhen Comp outperformed with a 3% gain. The ASX meanwhile was among the few underperformers with a loss of -0.38%. US futures are narrowly mixed, with the Dow Jones futures underperforming and the front end WTI future trading at USD 56.32 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD has consolidated having risen after the NFP release, with 1.1256 standing as the next Resistance level, while Support is found at 1.1224. GBPUSD appears to be currently moving in anticipation of tomorrow’s Brexit developments, with immediate Resistance at 1.3050 and Support at 1.2961. XAUUSD moved past 1300 for a while before retracting, but remained above 1280 for a 6th day. Immediate support is at 1292 while Resistance remains at 1300. USDJPY is still trading at two week lows, with the immediate Support and Resistance levels standing at 111.05 and 111.25. Main Macro Events Today Retail Sales ex Auto (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, most likely a base effect from the previous 1.8% reduction in December. Eurogroup Meeting (EUR, Full Day) – The Finance Ministers of each Member State will meet in Brussels to discuss various financial issues, including fiscal policy. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The global stock market recovery continued during the Asian session. News came out at the last minute that a “legally binding” agreement has been reached between the EU and the UK, giving May an assurance that the dreaded Irish border backstop doesn’t become permanent underpinned. The pound strengthened, as well as stock markets across Asia after a positive close on Wall Street, where robust retail sales had helped to bolster confidence. The latter also helped tech stocks to break the losing streak amid news that Nvidia Corp. agreed to buy chipmaker Mellanox Technologies Ltd. Topix and Nikkei rose 1.52% and 1.79% respectively overnight. The Hang Seng is up 1.2% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rose 0.48% and 0.76% so far, with the Shenzen Comp up 0.88%. The ASX underperformed and closed with a loss of -0.09%, as Aussie loans data again came out negative. US futures are broadly higher, while the front end WTI future saw a high of USD 57.14 before falling back to now USD 56.91 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD has continued its rise after the positive Brexit news, trading around the 1.1256 Resistance level, far from both the next 1.1224 Support and 1.13 Resistance. GBPUSD gained on the positive Brexit developments, breaking through the 1.32 Resistance but the MACD suggests that this may be running out of steam. XAUUSD continues to fluctuate around the 1295 mark, with the MACD and Stochastics indicators pointing to the downside as price it hits its 200HMA. USDJPY continues to move upwards, with immediate Resistance at the 200HMA level at 111.54, while Stochastics and the MACD point downwards. Main Macro Events Today Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production are expected to have remained flat registering 0.0% m/m growth in January, compared to a 0.5% and 0.7% declines in December. Consumer Price Inflation (USD, 12:30) – US CPI is expected to stand at the same level as in January, both for the overall and the core index, at 2.2% and 1.6% respectively. Brexit Vote (EUR, USD, N/A) – The UK Parliament will vote on whether it will accept May’s amended deal, in light of today’s agreement on the backstop. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The dollar pulled ahead from a nine-day low on Thursday, largely helped by the pound snapping back after a sharp rally made on Brexit relief. MPs surprised the government and voted by 312 to 308 to reject a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. The vote is not binding – under current law the UK could still leave without a deal on 29 March. Another vote tonight, with British lawmakers widely expected to vote in favour of a Brexit delay. US grounded Boeing’s 737 Max 8 and 9 fleet as announced by the FAA, with Boeing itself recommending that the 737 Max should be taken out of service. More than 370 such planes are operated. Boeing saw its value decline by $26.6 billion this week. Data from China point to the negative as unemployment has risen, industrial production growth has slowed, even though retail sales continue to grow. Gold declined as the Dollar strengthened, still trading about 1300. Oil reaffirmed its gains and traded around $58. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD continued its rise after the rejection of the no-deal Brexit. The pair broke through its 200HMA, and the Resistance point at 1.13, but has not managed to stay above the 1.1330 Resistance. Indicators are showing mixed signals. GBPUSD gained after the rejection of the no-deal Brexit, breaking through the 200HMA yesterday, but bouncing off both the 1.3336 Resistance level and the 1.3245 Support. XAUUSD lost as the Dollar gained yesterday, coming down from the 1310 highs and currently trading at 1302. The MACD and Stochastics are issuing negative signals. USDJPY continues its slow upwards movement, breaking through the sideways channel as it is currently trading above its 200HMA level at 111.50, with immediate Resistance at 111.68. MACD and Stochastics are showing signs of saturation. Main Macro Events Today Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have risen last week, by 2K and 20K respectively, reaching 225K and 1.775K. New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) –New Home Sales are expected to have marginally declined in January, to 0.62M from 0.621M in December. Brexit Vote (EUR, GBP, N/A) – The UK Parliament will vote on whether a Brexit delay should be pursued. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Asian indices broadly higher amid fresh hopes on the US-Sino trade front. BoJ kept policy unchanged as expected, exports seen weighing on outlook. Trump-Xi summit pushed back to end of April, USTR cited “major issues”. Xinhua news agency reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a telephone conversation with US Secretary Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Lighthizer and that further substantive progress on trade talks has been made. UK lawmakers backed a delay to the Brexit process. PM May set to ask for a short term extension if her Brexit deal gets through by March 20, i.e. before the next EU summit, or a long term delay if not. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures. WTI future is trading at USD 58.76 per barrel. EURUSD softer after posting 9-day high at 1.1341 following soft US PPI USDJPY lifted to 1-week highs above 111.70; Yen wary of BoJ dovish tone. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD found a floor at 1.1310 after rebounding from 1.1290 and overall remains in an uptrend. The same positive bias held intraday as well, with MAs pointing upwards and RSI sloping above 50. GBPUSD is trading in a descending triangle. Support is held at 50-period SMA at 1.3225 and Resistance at 1.3265. A break of these barriers could suggest the near term direction for Pound. XAUUSD rebounded from 1297 and broke the 1300 barrier earlier. Upper Bollinger bands are extending higher while the asset has regained more than 60% of the losses seen yesterday, turning the negative near term outlook to a positive one. Main Macro Events Today BoJ Kuroda Speech – Due to speak at the B20 Tokyo Summit. EU Final CPI – The overall Eurozone HICP is anticipated at 1.5% y/y. Canadian Manufacturing Sales – the Manufacturing shipment values are expected to edge 0.5% higher in January after the 1.3% drop in December. Michigan Sentiment and Industrial Data– Industrial production is projected to rise 0.4% in February, after a 0.6% drop in January, while capacity utilization should rise to 78.4% from 78.2% in January. An early March Michigan Sentiment reading is expected of 96.0 , up from 93.8 in February, but well below the 14-year high of 101.4 last March. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets rallied in Asia with Chinese indices leading the advance as markets prepare for a cautious Fed meeting this week. China’s promise to support the economy via a cut in the VAT rate is adding support and helping markets to leave December lows far behind. US futures are also on the rise as are European futures. Japanese exports decline for a third consecutive month. Singapore non-oil exports swUng to surprise 4.9% rise in February after 3 months of decline North Korea may suspend nuclear talks with the US, according to Russia’s TASS. Brexit: May is still trying to get her Brexit deal over the line ahead of the March 21/22 EU summit, with an extension now needed even if the deal goes through. BCC published a report showing that UK business investment is on course to decline by 1.0% in 2019, which would be the worst in a decade. EURUSD above 1.1300, after marking 10-day peak near 1.1345 on tame Fed view. USDJPY tipped lower on N. Korea back-track after printing 9-day peak at 111.90. IEA warned of sharp Venezuela supply drop, but OPEC has spare capacity to offset. The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $58.40. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD found some ground on Friday’s closing. It is currently trading above its 10-day peak, in the upper BB pattern. Next Resistance 1.1360(50DMA) and Support at 1.1320 (20DMA). GBPUSD is consolidating in the upper 1.32 area. Overall it remains in an up channel. NZDUSD: Broke 3-day High and currently retesting the upper line of a descending triangle. Bullish inverse Head and Shoulders has also been identified in the hourly chart. Resistance holds at 0.6875-0.6900. XAUUSD rebounded from 1,298 the past hour up to 1,304 area. Any consecutive bullish candles could suggest a positive intraday outlook. Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Trade data – Eurozone trade data as well as current account data are likely to reflect the global pressure on exports. January’s trade balance is expected to fall to EUR 13.2 bln, vs EUR 15.6 bln in February. US NAHB Housing Market Index – The NAHB Housing Market Index for March kicks off the week, and it is expected to rise to 63 from 62 last time. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The main focus is the eagerly awaited Fed announcement tomorrow, with the US central bank expected to turn down the to just one rate hike this year, and the USD remains in “wait n see mode” ahead of FED tomorrow. Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand hold policy meetings this week and are expected to stay on hold as well. In the RBA minutes, the outlook for the Aussie economy was mentioned as having “significant uncertainties’, as house prices cooled significantly more than expected too. However, while the prospect of ongoing support from central banks and governments helped stock markets to move higher across Asia yesterday, today’s trading saw a broad correction, with Chinese indices, which outperformed Monday, underperforming today. The Shanghai Comp lost -0.63%, the CSI 300 was down -0.82%, while the Hang Seng had declined -0.23%. Topix and Nikkei closed with losses of -0.21% and -0.08% respectively and the ASX was down -0.09% in the end. US futures are posting fractional gains, while European futures are down. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 58.98 per barrel, after touching a high of USD 59.14 overnight. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD traded up and down yesterday, ranging around the 1.1345 Resistance level, breaking through it early today. Still below yesterday’s peak, MAs suggest the Euro will strengthen, supported by the MACD, while Stochastics suggest that it is overvalued. GBPUSD is consolidating in the upper 1.32 area, moving on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics are showing down signals. USDJPY has continued its downwards trend breaking through the 200HMA yesterday, reaching as low as 111.18, with Resistance standing at 111.40 and Support at 111.08. XAUUSD continues to trade above the $1300 mark, in a slight upwards trend, even though Stochastics and MACD show signs of regression. Data releases and any Brexit developments today could affect it. Main Macro Events Today Average Earnings ex Bonus and Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Average Earnings in the UK are expected to have stood at 3.4% in the three months to January, the same growth rate as the previous time. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%. Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – March’s economic sentiment index is expected to stand at -18.7, a decline from the -16.6 observed in February. Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – Factory orders are expected to have grown by 0.3% in January, compared to 0.1% in December. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Fed day today – will they be as dovish as the markets seem to think? No change on the rates is expected but their musings on the future path of monetary policy, both conventional as well as with regards to its balance sheet position will be key for the USD and bond yields. Ahead of today’s awaited Fed announcement the Asian session also experienced some profit taking as markets expected a dovish turn. In the Asian session stocks traded narrowly mixed, with Chinese markets underperforming amid reports that China is pushing back against some of the US demands in trade talks. Overall though traders see signs of eagerness to come to a deal among Chinese officials ahead of further trade talks as US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to China next week. Topix and Nikkei managed to close with gains of 0.26% and 0.20% respectively. The ASX, however, was down -0.31% at the close and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses are also in the red. US futures are little changed and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 58.97 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD traded mostly above the 1.1345 Resistance level, even though very close to it, in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Indicators are showing signs of consolidation. GBPUSD is moving in a similar way as the EURUSD consolidating in the upper 1.32 area, for the 5th consecutive day, moving on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics support consolidation. USDJPY moved slightly up on the leading indicator announcement, which showed worse than expected performance compared to the previous month. After etching to 111.60, the pair declined slightly, a move supported by both MACD and Stochastics. XAUUSD is still above the $1300 mark, while some downwards momentum exists despite indicators pointing upwards. The Fed decision is expected to have a strong effect on Gold. Main Macro Events Today Retail, Producer, and Consumer Price Indices (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Both the CPI and the RPI are expected to have registered the same growth as January, showing 2.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively. The PPI is expected to have grown by 4.3% y/y compared to 2.9% y/y last month. Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD, GMT 18:00) – The eagerly awaited Fed decision is expected to shed light as to whether the 2 rate hike policy is to be continued or whether one rate hike is to be expected. Furthermore, comments on its potential balance sheet actions could also affect the markets. Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand GDP is expected to have grown by 2.5% y/y in 2018Q4, compared to 2.6% in 2018Q3. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The EU summit starts today and while Brexit is not the only topic on the agenda, it will likely dominate discussions, after PM May yesterday officially asked for an extension until June 30 and ruled out that she as Prime Minister would ask for a long extension. EU council president Tusk in his official response made it clear that a short extension will only be possible if the Withdrawal Agreement has been backed by MPs in London. Tusk did not rule out a long extension but as May has made it clear that she as PM won’t ask for one, that is currently not on the table. After an interesting meeting yesterday, the Fed was even more dovish than expected, suggesting that no rate hikes would take place in 2019, although leaving the window open for some hikes in 2020. Overall, the Fed commented that a patient, semi-neutral approach was the best at this point, after the cooling in growth and inflation. Justification was sought in slower growth, static payrolls, weaker household spending and a decline in overall inflation. In addition, the Fed also confirmed plans to taper in May, and then end in September, the balance sheet runoff. Trump, following the Fed, tweeted that tariffs on Chinese goods could be in place for a “substantial period”. Equities dropped, after increasing as a result of the Fed dovishness. Dow closed down 0.55% and under its 20 SMA. Asian shares are less impacted, but Japan is closed today. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD pushed higher than the 1.14 level on the Fed dovishness, with expected Resistance at 1.1433, and then at 1.15. Indicators are supportive of a consolidation/downtrend mode this morning. GBPUSD is slightly regaining its losses, still moving around the 1.32 area, on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics can perhaps be interpreted as sending positive signals. USDJPY dropped heavily on the Fed announcement, crossing the 110.72 Support and its 200HMA. The next Support level is at 110.34, even though the MACD and Stochastics do not appear to agree with the downwards trend. XAUUSD gained significantly and is trading at $1319, while some downwards momentum continues to exist according to the indicators. The Fed decision did have a strong effect, as suggested yesterday, and the question is whether Gold can now break through the $1321 Resistance level, or will retrace to the $1313 Support. Main Macro Events Today European Council Meeting (EUR, GBP, Full Day) – One of the most important European Council Meetings for the year, given that Theresa May will likely aim to provide justification for a Brexit delay. Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February, employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 15K compared to 39K last month. SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%. Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have eased, growing by 0.2% on a m/m basis, compared to 1.2% in January. BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions. CPI inflation (JPY, GMT 23:30) – National Core CPI for Japan is expected to have declined to 0.3% m/m in February, compared to 0.4% in January. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Bund yields slightly higher in opening trade after cautious session on Asian stock markets. EU hands UK another 2 weeks to avoid no-deal Brexit, eyes May 22 exit if deal passes, otherwise PM May must come up with a Plan B. If the deal gets through, an extension until May 22 has already been backed by the EU-27. Japan’s nationwide core CPI undershot expectations at 0.7% y/y in February. The European calendar focuses on Eurozone prel. March Manufacturing PMI readings. Gold whipsawed back toward $1,300 by resurgent USD index near 96.5 EURUSD corrected back under 1.1400. USDJPY up from 5-week low of 110.28. WTI crude has settled slightly below $60.0 after posting a fresh 4-month high at $60.39 Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD is slightly below Pivot Point of the day and the 38.2% Fib from the week’s peak, at 1.1385. A decisive break could lead towards 1.1410 Resistance. However indicators are not supportive, as they remain negatively configured. GBPUSD topped at 1.3160, however the last 4 small body candles along with the latest doji candle suggest that upside movement might reach an end. Support at 1.3113 and 1.3000. USDJPY dropped further into London open, down to 110.70. Indicators retreated from neutral zone, with RSI looking lower. The next Support level is at 110.64, and 110.36. Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 49.5 from 49.3 and the services reading to ease slightly to a still strong 52.7 from 52.8, which should leave the composite slightly higher at 52.0, versus 51.9 in the previous month. Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to climb 0.5% in February (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in January, boosted by stronger gasoline prices and seasonal strength in February’s CPI. Canadian Retail Sales – The Retail sales are anticipated at 0.3% in January after the 0.1% dip in December. US Home Sales – Sales are estimated to grow 0.6% following a 1.0% December decline. The I/S(Inventory to Sales) ratio should edge down to 1.32, from 1.33. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
The Brexit saga continues next week with the Vote standing out as the event of the week, even though important data releases are scheduled across many currencies in the coming days.
Monday – 25 March 2019 _________________________________________________________________________
* All Industy Activity Index (JPY, GMT 04:30) – The Industry Index, known for its leading indicator abilities, is expected to have stood at 0.2% m/m in January, compared to -0.4% in December.
* German Business Climate (EUR, 09:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.
* Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $6.1 billion in February, compared to $6.4 billion in January.
Monday – 26 March 2019 _________________________________________________________________________
* Housing Data (USD, GMT 00:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency.
* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month.
Monday – 27 March 2019 _________________________________________________________________________
* Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 01:00) – No change is expected in the RBNZ meeting, with the Central Bank likely to also push forward a “wait-and-see” stance.
* Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.
Monday – 28 March 2019 _________________________________________________________________________
* German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month.
* US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%.
* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January.
Monday – 29 March 2019 _________________________________________________________________________
* UK Final GDP (GBP, GMT 09:00) – UK economic activity is expected to have remained at its preliminary level of 1.3% y/y in 2018Q4.
* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal Spending is expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m in January, compared to a 0.5% m/m reduction in the previous month.
* Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to have declined to 61.8 compared to 64.7 last month, however still showcasing growth.
* UK Parliament Vote (GBP, Tentative) – The UK Parliament is expected to convene in order to vote for a revised Theresa May plan or in favour of a no-deal Brexit.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
10-year Treasury yields are up 2.8 bp at 2.427%, JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.076% amid a mixed session on Asian stock markets. Japanese markets in particular rebounded from yesterday’s sell off after sentiment started to stabilize during the US session yesterday and Wall Street closed little changed. The sharp drop in US bond yields last week and the shape of the yield curve revived fears of a global recession last week, but while yields remain at low levels for now at least the mood seems to be slowly lifting. Markets will continue to keep a very close eye on the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and three months bills, which is judged to be a key recession indicator and inverted last Friday. This week’s US bond auctions will be closely watched. The UK Parliament takes control of the Brexit process after May’s defeat, with a new vote scheduled for tomorrow. Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 2.57% and 2.15% respectively. The ASX gained 0.07%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai comp are down -0.15% and -1.35%. US futures are higher as are the European ones. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 59.21 per barrel. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has been trading around the 1.13 level, breaking below but not maintaining it yesterday. Immediate Resistance at 1.1338, at the 200HMA. Indicators are also not registering any up or down signals. GBPUSD continues to trade around the 1.32 level, in a tight channel between this and the 1.3223 200HMA level. The MACD does not show much action, while Stochastics issue bullish signs. USDJPY dropped below the 110.34 level, trading around the 110 level, which appears to hold despite some breakouts below it. Resistance remains at 110.34 and Support, after the 110 immediate level, lies at 109.80. XAUUSD broke below the 1320 level early today, with the MACD registering bullish signs as the Stochastics indicator is moving in the oversold region. Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively. Main Macro Events Today
Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency. CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month. Support and Resistance
[IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Bund yields are coming down again and the 10-year Treasury rate is at 2.412%, down -1.1 bp on the day, underperforming versus bonds in Australia, New Zealand and China. The US 10-year rate remains below the 3-month rate, which continues to feed concerns about the growth outlook and the risk of recession, especially against the background of dovish shifts at major central banks, and is underpinning choppy trade in stocks. Japanese equities, which outperformed Tuesday, underperformed today and Topix and Nikkei lost -0.52% and -0.23% respectively. Chinese markets, meanwhile, outperformed after heading south yesterday, although mainland China indices are down from earlier highs. The Shanghai benchmark is still up 0.60%, the blue-chip CSI 300 1.00% higher on the day and the Hang Seng up 0.59%. US stock futures are also moving higher in tandem with European futures and the front end WTI future is at USD 60 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner EURUSD broke through the 1.13 level yesterday, and is currently trading around its 1.1256 Support level. Immediate Resistance is at 1.13. Indicators are issuing positive signals. GBPUSD pushed down from the 1.32 level, trading around the 1.318 Support level, while the indicators suggest a slightly upwards tendency. USDJPY gained yesterday, breaking through the 110.34 Resistance level and is now trading between it and the 110.73 Resistance. Indicators are showing bearish signs. XAUUSD same as yesterday, Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively, with Gold trading between those two bands. Biggest loser – NZDUSD: After the RBNZ’s comments that the next interest rate move is likely to be a reduction, the Kiwi lost 104 pips, pulling the AUD down along the way, albeit in a shorter movement. Resistance stands at 0.6807, while Support is at 0.6790. Main Macro Events Today Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The ECB President is due to speak at the “ECB and its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt, where many other ECB representatives are also expected to speak. US and Canada Trade Balance (USD / CAD, GMT 12:30) – Both trade deficits are expected to improve, with the US trade deficit expected to decrease to $57 billion from $59.8 billion last month. The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have declined to $3.5 billion from $4.6 billion in December. UK Brexit Vote (GBP, GMT 19:30) – Many options on the table for today’s vote, including a second referendum, customs union, revoking Article 50, and, of course, no-deal Brexit. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Slide in global bond yields continues. The flattening or outright inversion of yield curves meanwhile is fuelling recession fears and also turning into a self-sustained cycle. Bund yields drop below those of JGBs yesterday after ECB tiered depo story potentially pushing the timing of the first rate hike. US Equities dragged lower by deeper curve inversion, taken as global risk signal. WTI crude down 1% under $59.30 after mixed EIA – crude build, product draws. Brexit: May’s pledge to step down may not be enough to secure her deal. GBP steady as Brexit process reaches defining phase; no-deal exit now very unlikely. DUP still doesn’t back Withdrawal Agreement. MPs yesterday rejected a range of alternative options, but with the customs union proposal coming pretty close and losing by just 8 votes, so that seems to be the front runner in alternative scenarios to May’s deal. Charts of the Day
[IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD has formed a falling wedge since March 27. Indicators are issuing neutral to positive signals. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.1283 within the next 6 hours. GBPUSD rebounded from 1.3140 and is trading a breath below PP level at 1.3193. Support is set at 1.3118 as the indicators suggest a slightly downwards tendency. USDJPY bottomed at 110.05, with next Support at 109.70 level. Indicators are negatively configured suggesting further negative bias intraday. Main Macro Events Today German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month. US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.400% and JGB rates lifted 0.6 bp to -0.100% amid a broad move higher in long yields across Asia. Hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks helped to underpin confidence and stock market sentiment improved after Mnuchin said he had a “productive working dinner” in Beijing yesterday with the US Treasury Secretary and US Trade Representative in China to resume trade talks. Chinese markets in particular benefited and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 3.49% and 2.85% respectively. The Hang Seng has risen 0.97% so far, while Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 0.56% and 0.82% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.08%. US futures are also broadly higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 59.54 per barrel. The Brexit Vote today, which only includes the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political declaration, will likely fail, again. The day is largely symbolic as today was supposed to be Brexit Day. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD continued its downwards trend, breaking through the 1.1256 Support level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill as both the MACD and Stochastics point to the upside. GBPUSD keeps declining as fears of no-deal Brexit continue, currently fluctuating around the 1.30 Support. Indicators are registering mixed signals as the MACD is positive and the Stochastics are negative, while the short MA crossed the long MA a couple of hours ago. USDJPY gained some despite mixed Japanese data, as the country appears to have been able to maintain its inflation at stable levels. The pair broke through the 110.73 level and is currently trading just below the 200HMA at 110.62. Both MACD and Stochastics are pointing downwards. XAUUSD remained flat below the $1300 mark after the drop from the 1311 level yesterday. No particular movements observed from the indicators. Main Macro Events Today UK GDP (GBP, GMT 09:30) – 2018Q4 GDP is expected not to have seen any material changes from its preliminary estimate and remain at 1.3% y/y. PCE and PCE Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.3% in January, compared to a reduction of 0.5% last month. PCE inflation is expected to have remained at 1.9%, the same as in December. Canada GDP (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian GDP is expected to have registered no m/m growth in January, compared to a 0.1% contraction in December. UK Parliament Brexit Vote (GBP/EUR, GMT 13:30) – The final call for Brexit, with MPs having to vote on a deal that is essentially the same as before albeit not defining the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to register signs of weakness in March, reducing to 61.0 from 64.7. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Bond yields continue to recover from recent lows. Stock markets started the second quarter with renewed optimism. USA500 still posted the best quarter in a decade. Signs of progress in U.S.-Sino trade talks helped to underpin sentiment and saw mainland China bourses outperforming amid a general move higher in Asian stock markets. Both sides said there was progress in talks. An unexpected jump in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI to 50.8 revived hopes that government measures to boost the economy. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid sanctions, production cuts. USDJPY edged 8-day high at 111.17. EURUSD rebounded to 1.1240 overnight after printing 3-week low of 1.1207. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD rebounded, breaking through the 1.1240 R1 level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill for today as it is currently looking southwards with RSI sloping lower as well. GBPUSD keeps inclining so far today, but remains close to Pivot at 1.3048 as fears of no-deal Brexit continue. USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.18, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwind. USDJPY has support at 110.50-53, levels which encompasses the prevailing situation of the 100-day moving average. NZDUSD – top gainer so far along with Aussie – jumped at 0.6836, from Thursday’sFriday’s tweezer bottom. A confirmation of this formation and a move above the 20-day SMM at 0.6840, could turn the attention to last week’s highs around at 0.6900. Main Macro Events Today Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.5 in March. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to be confirmed at 1.5%y/y in March, with core inflation holding at 1%. Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February’s Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, from the 0.2% rise in January. ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 54.5 in March, compared to the 2-year low of 54.2 in February. BREXIT Vote on alternative plans Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Wall Street was higher overnight, followed by the better than expected US manufacturing ISM and construction spending reports (they offset disappointing retail sales). JGB yields still moved higher, in tandem with most Asian stock markets, but the buoyant mood in equities that dominated yesterday’s session turned a bit more muted, as the focus turned from revived hopes on a US-Sino trade deal and a recovery in the manufacturing sector to Brexit risks. RBA left monetary policy on hold amid increased downside risks, but seems to be awaiting the fiscal injection that is expected to be unveiled today. UK Parliament rejected all options on Brexit compromise, customs union close miss. GBP was under pressure due to revived concerns of a no-deal scenario. WTI crude rallied 2% to a fresh 5-mth high near $61.82, on supply side tightness. USDJPY lifted to 11-day highs amid risk-on; EURUSD hit 3-week low near 1.12. GOLD holds the key 1285 level – at 1287. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner GBPUSD is under pressure once again, trading southwards below its Pivot for the 10th consecutive hourly session. A breach and break of S1 at 1.3025 could suggest the retest of 26-day Support at 1.2970. USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.45, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwinds. USDJPY has support at 111.20. NZDUSD holds at 3-week lows. Support holds at 0.6770. The next support on the break of the latter is at 0.6750. If the asset rebounds however, Resistance has been set at 0.6800. Overall outlook remains negative due to the descending triangle formation and the decreasing momentum indicators in the daily chart. BTCUSD – biggest mover – Spiked to 5013 from 4216. However, intraday the asset looks overbought, with RSI at 81, and a doji closing the past hour. Main Macro Events Today UK Markit Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Construction PMI is expected to improve to a 50.0 reading after dropping sharply in February to 49.5, which was the lowest reading since July 2016 (the month after the vote to leave the EU). Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – February Durable Goods orders are expected to decline to 1.2%, following a 0.3% January gain. Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (USD, GMT 12:30)
Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Stock markets continued to recover during the Asian session, with concerns that the world economy is sliding into recession calmed by better data out of China and trade talk hopes. Sentiment was underpinned by a stronger than expected services PMI out of China. Further sign that economic growth is coming back. US as well as European equity futures are also moving higher. Brexit: UK PM May would sit down with Opposition leader Corbyn to try and break the deadlock. Meanwhile, new referendum in the UK on EU membership and a customs union now are both looking increasingly likely. A compromise needs to be found before the EU emergency summit on April 10 to secure another extension until May 22. GBP cleared $1.3100 after PM May talked up another deal, despite Commons failure. WTI crude surged over clear $62.87; Gold capped near $1,291 by USD index 1-month high. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner GBPUSD jumped in London open, above latest peak at 1.3150. Next Resistance levels are set at 1.3178 and 1.3230. Support holds at 200-period SMA at 1.3120, for 12 consecutive hourly sessions. EURUSD holds Support at 1.1216, which was the initial resistance. With momentum indicators though looking to turn southwards a break of this level could shift the asset back to PP level at 1.1200. USDJPY probed 111.45 highs amid risk-on, by breaking 2-day peak and R1 for the day. Currently it is retesting the 111.56, which is a breath above the upper BB level and coincides with FE161.80 extension (from March rebound) and the latest up fractal. This could be a retracement level for the asset. AUDUSD hit 50-day SMA at 0.7117. this area could provide some resistance to the asset, as the asset lacks of positive momentum based on the daily indicators. Abreak however of the latter but more precisely of yesterday’s high at 0.7128, might push Aussie to the next barrier at 0.7160. Main Macro Events Today Retail Sales and Services (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – Eurozone March Services reading expected to be confirmed at 51.3, while Retails sales could spike to 2.3% y/y in February. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 165k for March compared to the 183K in February. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM non-Manufacturing PMI in the US is expected to slip to 58.7 in March, compared to 59.7 in February, supporting the strong economic climate despite the small decrease in its value. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.513% and JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to -0.060%, as the stock rally stalled during the Asian session and the USD consolidated overnight. Big misses for ADP Jobs (50k) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (19-month low) pressed a pause on Equity rally. Parliament passed (by 1 vote) a bill to ask to extend Brexit Day beyond April 12, but it remains unclear whether there is time to get it through by May 22. A longer extension looks most likely while the odds of a full 2nd Referendum odds are also increased. Asian markets are mostly trading narrowly mixed, with traders waiting for another catalyst such as tangible progress on the US-Sino trade talks before pushing equity markets out further following the recent rally. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.11% and unchanged on the day respectively. The Hang Seng dropped -0.42%, while CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.80%, with hopes of government stimulus after the government said it plans to cut some airline fees adding support. The ASX meanwhile lost -0.83%. Oil futures are trading at USD 62.37 per barrel. German Factory Orders just in and is a big miss it is (-4.2% vs expectations of +0.3%), putting the German Industry in recession territory. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner GBPUSD reacted positively after the UK Parliament asked the government to ask for another extension of the Brexit deadline. Resistance level remains at 1.3184, with a strong one at 1.32, while Support is bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3137. EURUSD is trading close to but below its 200HMA at 1.1248, affected by the weaker than expected US data, with indicators not showing a clear direction. USDJPY paused its rise after the worsening in US data releases, stabilizing around the 111.40 level. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.73 and 111.68, although the former could change as the 200HMA could be binding. XAUUSD continues trading below 1300, fluctuating around the 1290 mark. Next Resistance point is at 1294.50 with indicators suggesting a mild upwards movement. Main Macro Events Today ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Accounts, similar to the FOMC Minutes, provide an insight with regards to the policymakers’ thinking about the European economy’s potential. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased over the last week of March, while Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to have increased. Canada PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Canadian PMI is expected to have risen to 51.1 in March, compared to 50.6 in February. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.528%, JGB yields down -0.7 bp at -0.0585 amid subdued trade on Asian stock markets. China was closed for a holiday and elsewhere markets traded mixed, with Topix and Nikkei managing gains of 0.23% and 0.28% respectively, while the ASX closed with a loss of 0.83%, although the latter was an exception, with most markets managing slight gains. There were some optimistic comments on the progress of the US-Sino trade deal from China, with Trump tweeting that he expects a deal “within 4 weeks” but after the recent run higher in equities traders will want to see more than words before pushing valuations higher. Markets will also be holding back ahead of key US payroll data today amid lingering concerns about the outlook for world growth. US futures are posting slight gains ahead of the key release, with the Dow Jones mini up 0.133%. GBP picked up (back over 1.3100) on a Brexit “Flexi-Extension” offer from the EU which suggests an extension of up to 12 months, but Britain could leave at any time if they signed an agreement. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 62.16 per barrel. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner GBPUSD reacted positively to “Flexi-Brexit”, showing upwards potential with Resistance at the 200HMA at 1.3126, and a stronger one at 1.3184, while Support stands at 1.3067. EURUSD moved up and down yesterday, with MAs showing an upwards movement with Resistance at its 200HMA at 1.1238, with both the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signs. USDJPY continued its rise, breaking through the 110.68 level and trading around that level as of this morning. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.95 and 111.80. XAUUSD has been trading in the 1285-1294 band, with indicators giving out mixed signals. Support and Resistance are marked as the channel bounds. Main Macro Events Today NonFarm Payrolls, Earnings, Unemployment (USD, GMT 12:30) – The most important piece of news this week, NFPs are expected to have grown by 180K, compared to 20K in the previous month, while earnings and unemployment are expected to have remained at the same levels. Canada Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian Participation Rate is expected to have declined to 65.7% compared to 65.8% last month, while the net change in employment is expected to have been just 1K compared to 55.9K last month. Unemployment is not expected to have changed. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.485% and 10-year JGB yields fell back -2.9 bp to -0.069%. Stock markets failed to get lasting support from China stimulus hopes and the rebound in US payrolls on Friday. Indices climbed initially after a document published on the central government website yesterday suggested Beijing would step up the policy of targeted cuts to banks’ reserve ratios in a bid to encourage lending to small and medium sized companies. However, while the ASX still managed to close 0.54% higher, Chinese bourses erased earlier gains and Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are down -0.03% and -0.87% respectively, while the CSI 300 blue chip index is down -0.75%. Topix and Nikkei also struggled and lost -0.42% and -0.25%. Earnings reports are coming into focus and investors are positioning for lacklustre results. US futures are also heading south, which suggests a correction from the six month high seen last week after the employment report. President Trump pressured the Fed to do more to sustain growth, while official comments from both sides suggest progress in trade talks. Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future trading at USD 63.33 per barrel, amid concerns that fighting in Libya could lead to supply outages. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD moved in a downwards channel on Friday and early today, and has bounced off its 200HMA at 1.1230, although trading around it in the past couple of hours. Support still remains at 1.1213, while Resistance, after the 200HMA stands at 1.1233. Indicators are showing mixed signals. GBPUSD gained some on the last trading hours, bouncing off the 1.3067 Resistance, although the overall trend is still down. Support remains at 1.3027. The MACD is registering positive signs as the Stochastics are showing negative. USDJPY made a significant downwards move as the Japanese trade balance showed a surplus, compared to expectations of a deficit. After breaking through the 111.68 Support, the pair bounced off 111.34, as indicators are showing positive signs. XAUUSD broke clear of the 1294.5 Resistance level, and is currently trading just above its 200HMA, at 1296. Next Resistance level is 1300. Main Macro Events Today Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – February orders are expected to have declined by 0.6% m/m, compared to a 0.1% increase in January. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Macro Events & News By Dr Nektarios Michail - April 9, 2019 [IMG]
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 2.519% and JGB rates up 0.2 bp at -0.052%, as Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed, with threats of new tariffs on European goods from President Trump adding to the cautious tone in the markets. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.26% and 0.06% respectively, the Hang Seng is up 0.22% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp up 0.11% and down -0.27% respectively, while the ASX closed down -0.01%, despite better than expected loans data. US futures are also posting slight losses and overall it seems investors are in a holding position ahead of the earnings season and with no firm agreement on US-Sino trade talks yet. Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs on European goods meanwhile acts as a reminder that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved. Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold above USD 64 per barrel amid fighting in Libya. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD stabilized around the 1.125 level, unable to break past the 1.1276 level. Support stands at 1.1256, with indicators showing mixed signs. GBPUSD broke through the 1.3067 level and is currently bound by the 200HMA at 1.3090, after positive news regarding a meeting between May, Merkel, and Macron. Support remains at 1.3067. USDJPY continues its downwards move towards the 111.22 level capped by the 200HMA, as soft Resistance is at 111.50. Indicators are suggesting a pause of the movement. XAUUSD is trading between the 1295-1300 marks, above its 200HMA and with indicators showing a slight downwards movement. Main Macro Events Today JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – Job vacancies are expected to have declined to 7.55M in February, compared to 7.58M in January. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Macro Events & News By Dr Nektarios Michail - April 10, 2019
[IMG] FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.4 bp at 2.486% as JGB yields fell back -0.4 bp to -0.063%. The IMF’s growth downgrade has rekindled concerns about the outlook for the world economy and the US threat of new tariffs on imports from Europe has reminded markets that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved and put a stop to the rally in recovery in stock markets seen over the past week. China’s bond yield rose to the highest this year as risk aversion flared up and the focus increasingly turns to China’s still large number of non-performing loans. Markets are also looking to Europe today, where the EU has to make a decision on yet another Brexit extension. The IMF named Brexit as one of the risks to world growth. Wall Street closed in the red and Asian markets also headed south, with Topix and Nikkei down -0.73% and -0.66%. The Hang Seng lost -0.34% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.10% and -0.14%. US stock futures, however, are posting marginal gains, after yesterday’s correction on Wall Street. The front end WTI future meanwhile continues to hold above USD 64 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD started moving upwards on early Wednesday, following the Brexit positive news, with both Stochastics and the MACD showing support for this movement. GBPUSD has been fluctuating in the 1.3026-1.3067 range for the past hours, also bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3082. Stochastics and the MACD support an upwards movement. USDJPY broke through the 200HMA, now at 111.31 early yesterday, but has been moving in a slight upwards trend after the worse than expected machinery orders for February. Indicators support the movement. XAUUSD broke through the 1300 mark but is still bounded by the 1304 Resistance, with indicators appearing indecisive regarding the future trend in the pair. Main Macro Events Today UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production and GDP (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.7% y/y on February, compared to -1.1% in January. Industrial Production is expected to have eased to 0.1% m/m compared to 0.6% m/m last month, while UK GDP for February is forecast to register zero growth m/m, down from 0.5% m/m in January. ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – No changes are expected in the ECB policy rate, even though some policy guidance should be offered, especially with regards to future rate hikes. US CPI Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Core CPI is expected to have remained at 2.1% y/y, close to the Fed’s 2% target. The overall index is forecast to rise to 1.8% compared to 1.5% in March. European Council Summit on Brexit (EUR-GBP, GMT 16:00) – The future of Brexit is expected to be discussed in the summit, with the EU said to offer a “flextension” until either December 2019 or March 2020, even providing the UK with the opportunity to withdraw its application for leaving the EU. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Macro Events & News By Dr Nektarios Michail - April 11, 2019 [IMG] FX News Today
Treasury yields stabilised after falling yesterday in the wake of softer core CPI readings, while the US 10-year rate is up 0.5 bp at 2.470%. 10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to -0.068% in catch up trade and as stock market sentiment remains muted. Indices traded mixed with Chinese markets underperforming. Dovish leaning central banks revived growth concerns and geopolitical trade tensions also continue to hang over markets, with no tangible sign of a US-Sino trade deal. The Brexit question was kicked down the line to October 31, but without a clear solution in sight. Topix and Nikkei are down 0.4 bp and up 0.08% respectively, while Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lost -0.88% and -1.31%. The CSI 300 blue chip index is down -1.99% and the ASX closed with a loss of -0.36%. US futures are also marginally in the red, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 64.25 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner
EURUSD broke through the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, with soft Resistance at 1.1286 and strong resistance at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show mixed signals. GBPUSD gained as news of the decision to delay Brexit was announced, even though whether it can persist above the 200HMA level of around 1.3086 is still unclear. Indicators show an easing of the trend. USDJPY continues to trade below the 200HMA, now at 111.11 with both the Stochastics and the MACD showing support for an upwards trend. XAUUSD broke 1304 after breaking the 1300 mark yesterday, currently trading between the 1309 and 1304 levels. Indicators again appear indecisive regarding the future trend of the pair. Main Macro Events Today
US PPI ex Food & Energy (USD, GMT 11:30) – The US PPI is expected to have grown by 2.4% in March, compared to 2.5% last month, similar to the core CPI results yesterday. Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 11:30) – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 211K, compared to 202K in the last week of March, while Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast to reach 1.738M against 1.717M last week. Fedspeak: Clarida, Williams, Bullard, and Bowman (USD, Various) – All 4 FOMC Members are due to speak on monetary policy issues, a topic which is likely to affect markets, depending on the context. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Macro Events & News By Dr Nektarios Michail - April 12, 2019
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.497% and JGB yields up 0.6 bp at -0.059%, in catch up trade, after perky US PPI readings put pressure on bonds yesterday, even if they are not expected to alter the Fed’s patient policy setting for now. Chinese bonds continue to underperform amid warnings on the still large number of non-performing loans that could threaten some banks and force the government to step in. Stock markets traded mixed, again with China underperforming, as markets await key trade numbers. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.10% and up 0.67% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -0.27% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.49% and -0.26% respectively. Reports of impending cost cuts at Australia’s largest bank meanwhile helped the ASX to close with a gain of 0.76%. US futures are posting slight gains ahead of key earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner EURUSD keeps trading above the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, after trading below that point through the night. A strong Resistance point remains at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show signals of a downwards move. GBPUSD keeps trading around the 1.30 mark, crossing its 20HMA early today, but with indicators showing mixed signals. USDJPY continues to increase and broke through the 111.68 level, and coming near the 111.80 Resistance. Stochastics and the MACD show an easing of the upwards movement. XAUUSD had a bad day yesterday, breaking through four Support levels and ending below 1294. Since then, it has been registering a slow upwards trend, something more evident in the Stochastics than the MACD indicator. Main Macro Events Today China Imports and Exports (CNH, AUD, N/A) – Even though no exact time has been specified, China’s trade performance is expected to have a strong effect on its currency and the Aussie. Exports are expected to have increased, after a sharp decrease last month, while imports are still expected to have shown negative growth. Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Industrial Production is expected to have decreased by 0.6%, compared to growth of 1.4% in January. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, 14:00) – US Sentiment is expected to decline to 98.0 in April, compared to 98.4 in March. Support and Resistance
Click here to access the Economic Calendar
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th April 2019. By Andria Pichidi - April 15, 2019 [IMG] FX News Today The broad rise in Asian long yields holds as local stock markets rallied in catch up trade after a strong close on Wall Street. Trade talk hopes, signs of improving growth and low inflation, coupled with positive earnings reports continued to underpin stock market sentiment. Mnuchin suggested over the weekend that US-Sino talks are nearing the final round and that the final agreement would go “way beyond” previous efforts to open China’s markets to US companies. US futures are narrowly mixed while European stock markets are underpinned. Japanese markets are closing for 10 consecutive days from April 27 to May 6, inclusive. After the strong first quarter earnings report from JPMorgan on Friday the focus is now turning to Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America. The front end WTI future is trading at $63.53 per barrel. USD and JPY lower vs most currencies, risk appetite up on strong China import data. GBP steady after EU Brexit extension; risk is it won’t resolve UK political gridlock. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD keeps trading close to 3-week highs of 1.1323. Stochastics, RSI and the MACD show signals of further improvement intraday. Next Resistance point holds at 1.1330. GBPUSD pulled back under 1.3100 after leaving a high at 1.3120. It is supported from the confluence of 200-period EMA and PP level the past 7 consecutive hours, at 1.3084. Next Support is set at 1.3065. USDJPY settled at around PP level at 111.90 . However after Friday’s high the positive sentiment is decreasing with intraday RSI and MACD turning lower as the overall outlook remains positive. The upside Resistance level is set at 112.19, while Support now comes in at 111.68. Main Macro Events Today FOMC Member Evans Speaks – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is due to speak in a television appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box. BOC Business Outlook Survey – The BoC’s outlook survey is expected to show an economy still moving along at a decent pace, but facing a number of challenges. This is a key report for the upcoming BoC announcement and MPR, as the Bank makes frequent references to the findings of the survey. A survey consistent with modest but still respectable growth, well contained inflation expectations and an unwinding in capacity pressures would line-up with our expectation for no change in rates later this month and through year-end. Empire State index – It is estimated to jump to 9.0 in April from a 2-year low of 3.7 in March. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th April 2019. Macro Events & News By Andria Pichidi - April 16, 2019 [IMG] FX News Today A mixed picture on Asian bond markets as Stock markets were mostly higher, while Japanese indices fell back from early lows and Chinese indices rallied in the second part of the session. A lacklustre Bank earnings report yesterday saw some investors turning cautious again and in Asia many will be waiting for Chinese GDP numbers tomorrow. US futures are moving higher, with the Dow Jones future up 0.239%. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day [IMG] Technician’s Corner EURUSD settled to narrow orbit of 1.1300, consolidating with MACD, and RSI been flattened in the neutral zone confirming the lack of direction. Resistance is set at PP level at 1.1306 and Support is at the latest low 1.1292. USDCAD edged higher at 1.3395, holding inside recent ranges, as crude oil slumped $0.50. As it is set for a 2nd trading day above 20-day MA with upper Bollinger bands extending to the upside, a retest of the next Resistance levels at 1.3405 and 1.3440 could be seen. USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, after topping at 112.03overnight. A move over the March 5 high of 112.13 could take the pairing to near 4-month highs. Support now comes in at 111.79. Main Macro Events Today Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Average Earnings are expected to have remained at 3.4% while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4%. German ZEW – The ZEW investor sentiment is expected to lift out of negative territory in the April reading and rise to 0.5 from -3.6 in March, which would be a continuation of the improvements in recent months and suggests that pessimists no longer outnumber optimists. US Industrial Production – March industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after a flat February reading, and capacity utilization should edge up to 79.2% from 79.1%. NZ CPI Inflation – New Zealand’s inflation rate is expected to have declined to 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in the final quarter of 2018. Trade Balance – The Japanese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at 310 billion Yen, compared to 335 billion Yen in February. Support and Resistance [IMG] Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Comments
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Stock markets struggled after Wall Street closed lower on Monday.
US equities slumped as trade optimism gave way to fresh economic concerns after the drop in construction spending.
The US may lift tariffs on Chinese imports, will sign off on final deal later in the month (March 27).
Bloomberg also reported that some $90 bln (3%) in VAT reductions is planned by China as well.
China lowered its official goal for economic growth this year to 6.0% from 6.5%.
RBA left official cash rates unchanged at 1.50%, as expected.
WTI future is trading at USD 56.36 per barrel.
Gold dipped under $1,284 on risk-on trade, before finding prop from stock slump.
USDJPY off Friday’s 10-week high at 112.07.
EURUSD hit 1-week lows into ECB.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
EURUSD crossed the 20-day SMA. In the 1-hour chart, the bearish cross of 50- and 200-period EMA along with the negative configured indicators imply further declines.
USDJPY moves for a 3rd day above an ascending triangle, the 200-DMA and on Friday broke the 11-day Resistance. This suggests the strengthening of the positive bias.
GBPUSD held in an upwards channel in the daily chart despite 3 negative sessions. Intraday is below 3 MAs, while Support is at 1.3140 and 1.3110.
XAUUSD is extended below BB. It found Support at 1,282.80 Next Support at 1,275 and Resistance at yesterday’s peak.
Biggest Loser: NZDUSD forms 5 consecutive bearish daily candles, trading below the 20-day SMA, while the long low wings suggest an increasing bearish bias overall.
Main Macro Events Today
EU Markit PMI Composite – The final Services PMI is expected to be confirmed at 52.3 which should leave the composite reading at 51.4, but with a slight risk to the upside after the marginal revision to the manufacturing PMI.
UK Service PMI – The Services PMI reading is expected to come in at 50.0, the dividing line between contraction and expansion.
US Home Sales – New home sales are estimated falling 8.7% in December to 600k after a 16.9% surge in November.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – February ISM-NMI index is forecast to rebound to 57.3 after falling 1.3 points to 56.7 in January.
BoE Governor Carney – BoE Carney is due to testify on Brexit, inflation, and the economy before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, in London.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Bond yields declined after Fed’s Rosengren suggested the pause in the rate hike cycle may last several meetings, while Morgan Stanley is now predicting that Treasury yields will continue to drop by the end of the year, and traders are likely to remain cautious ahead of US jobs data on Friday.
Australian bonds rallied and the AUD was under pressure as weaker than expected GDP numbers data added to speculation of rate cuts from the RBA, which in turn helped the ASX to gain 0.75%.
Overall stock markets traded mixed across Asia with markets reluctant to push out valuations further without more concrete details on the possible US-Sino trade deal.
Dovish-leaning BoJ comments failed to give Japanese markets a lift and Topix and Nikkei closed with losses of -0.25% and -0.60% respectively.
China’s announcement of measures to boost domestic consumption further this year, helped Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp to gain 0.55% and 0.46% respectively.
US stock futures are broadly lower, as are European futures, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.10 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD traded around 1.13, unable to break decisively in either direction, as the post-PMI rally eased. MACD and Stochastics point to an uptrend although MAs are still down.
USDJPY managed to maintain its gains, as the short-term MA appear about to break through the longer-term MA and the mid-Bollinger level, supported by the indicators.
GBPUSD moved slightly down on account of the Dollar strength, albeit not breaking through the 1.31 mark. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
XAUUSD broke through the mid-Bollinger level and has been moving towards its 200HMA. Support level is at 1290, with Resistance at 1320.
Biggest Winner: EURAUD gained significantly as RBA Governor Lowe tried to downplay the importance of the housing market slump, arguing that the probabilities are evenly balanced between rate hikes and rate decreases.
Main Macro Events Today
ADP Employment Change (GMT 13:15) – February’s labour market data are projected to have been improving at a lower rate, at 189K, compared to 213K in January.
BoC Rate Statement (GMT 15:00) – BoC is not expected to raise interest rates, a result of weaker than expected Canadian data releases, as well as the overall “wait and see” stance of many Central Banks around the world.
US Crude Oil Inventories (GMT 15:30) – The change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week affects both the price of Oil as well as Oil-dependent currencies such as the Loonie and the Aussie. Forecasts are that inventories will rise by 1.2M, compared to a reduction of 8.6M last week.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
The Yen and the Swissy edged up as investors sought shelter in safe-haven currencies, and stock markets headed south during the Asian session amid fresh concerns about the global growth outlook, increased US-North Korea tensions, and as traders await more details on a possible US-Sino trade deal.
The BoC added its name to the growing list of central banks that are taking a pause to assess current risks, maintaining rates at 1.75% and watering down its rate normalization.
Yesterday’s data showed the US trade deficit widening to a 10-year high, which will only increase the risk of further protectionist measures at a time when global trade tensions increasingly weigh on growth prospects.
The OECD cut forecasts for the global economy in 2019 and 2020, again yesterday, delivering a bleak assessment of the global economy. However, the prospect of further stimulus measures is keeping bond markets underpinned and the fallout in the stock market appears to be limited. Still, all Asian markets are trading in the red, with the only exception being the ASX which rose by 0.29%.
US futures are heading south, however, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 56.26 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD is trading around 1.13 again, unable to break decisively in either direction, in anticipation of the ECB meeting and the NFP data tomorrow.
USDJPY has declined as investors sought shelter in safe-haven currencies, reaching 111.68 and creating a downwards trend towards the 200-HMA at 111.30.
GBPUSD moved slightly higher, albeit not breaking through and remaining above the 1.319 mark. MACD, Stochastics and MAs point downwards.
XAUUSD broke through its Support level at 1290, and appears to have currently paused at 1284. Indicators are sending mixed signals.
Biggest Winner: USDCAD gained significantly as BoC maintains its interest rates unchanged. The pair jumped 20 pips during the meeting and is currently trading at a 2-month high at 1.3442.
Main Macro Events Today
EU GDP (GMT 10:00) – The European Union’s GDP is expected to come out at 1.2% y/y, the same as the preliminary release in February.
ECB Interest Rate Decision (GMT 12:45) – No changes are expected from the ECB meeting, although Mario Draghi’s speech could provide more insights with regards to the potential TLTRO implementation or other possible policy measures.
Productivity, Labour Costs, Jobless Claims (GMT 13:30) – Productivity is expected to have slowed down to 1.6% in Q4, compared to 2.3% in the previous quarter, while Labour Costs are expected to have risen by 1.6%, compared to 0.9% in Q3. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have remained at the same level, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined to 1.775M.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Global sell off in stock markets continued during the Asian session.
Chinese markets in particular sold off after much weaker than expected trade data and a rare “sell” rating from China’s largest brokerage was taken as a sign that the government wants to limit gains on equity markets.
The ECB’s dovish turn and sharp growth revisions have fuelled concerns about the global outlook and sparked a fresh wave of risk aversion.
German manufacturing orders slumped -2.6% m/m in February
GER30 slumps at 11425.00 area on the EU open.
EURUSD plunged below 1.1200 after ECB.
USDJPY ebbed to 1-week low, AUDJPY saw 2-week low, amid risk-off backdrop
The WTI future is trading at USD 56.38 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has consolidated around 1.12 after post-ECB plunge into 21-low terrain. The weak bullish candles suggest a weak positive bias.
GBPUSD in a ranging market with immediate Resistance at 1.3100 and Support at 1.3065. Overall remains in downtrend with Momentum indicators negatively configured intraday and daily as well.
XAUUSD reached 1293 level but remains for 5th day above 1280 which stands a near term Support. It break outside hourly Bollinger Bands could follow by a pullback as it suggest an overextended move.
Biggest Winner: USDJPY has dipped to 110.95 from 111.60. The pair broke the the 200-day moving averageand is currently retesting a cross into negative BB area. This along with a decline of positive bias in MACD and Stochastic suggest a possible turn of the outlook into negative one in the medium term.
Main Macro Events Today
US Housing starts – It should rise 11.3% to a 1.200 mln pace in January after an 11.2% drop to 1.078 mln in December.
US NFP – A rather solid February nonfarm payroll report is seen, even if the headline 180k job gain significantly undershoots the 304k January surge and would be the smallest gain since September.
Canadian Labor data – Employment is expect to reveal a 20.0k gain in jobs during February after January blasted through expectations with a 66.8k increase. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th March 2019.
FX News Today
Stock market sentiment started to stabilise during the Asian session and many indices, first and foremost in China, managed to claw back some of Friday’s losses.
Chinese indices led the way after moving past the disastrous trade number from last Friday.
While dovish-leaning central banks in general and the additional action from the ECB in particular sparked fears that the global growth outlook is actually worse than anticipated, the fact that there is more support should also be constructive for stock markets in the medium term.
BoJ is set to meet this week while it is believed that China and the US are in general agreement on many crucial issues and have held meaningful discussions on foreign exchange, according to People’s Bank of China Governor Yi Gang.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.57% and 0.47% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.68%, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 1.47% and 1.35% respectively and the Shenzhen Comp outperformed with a 3% gain. The ASX meanwhile was among the few underperformers with a loss of -0.38%.
US futures are narrowly mixed, with the Dow Jones futures underperforming and the front end WTI future trading at USD 56.32 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has consolidated having risen after the NFP release, with 1.1256 standing as the next Resistance level, while Support is found at 1.1224.
GBPUSD appears to be currently moving in anticipation of tomorrow’s Brexit developments, with immediate Resistance at 1.3050 and Support at 1.2961.
XAUUSD moved past 1300 for a while before retracting, but remained above 1280 for a 6th day. Immediate support is at 1292 while Resistance remains at 1300.
USDJPY is still trading at two week lows, with the immediate Support and Resistance levels standing at 111.05 and 111.25.
Main Macro Events Today
Retail Sales ex Auto (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, most likely a base effect from the previous 1.8% reduction in December.
Eurogroup Meeting (EUR, Full Day) – The Finance Ministers of each Member State will meet in Brussels to discuss various financial issues, including fiscal policy.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th March 2019.
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FX News Today
The global stock market recovery continued during the Asian session.
News came out at the last minute that a “legally binding” agreement has been reached between the EU and the UK, giving May an assurance that the dreaded Irish border backstop doesn’t become permanent underpinned.
The pound strengthened, as well as stock markets across Asia after a positive close on Wall Street, where robust retail sales had helped to bolster confidence.
The latter also helped tech stocks to break the losing streak amid news that Nvidia Corp. agreed to buy chipmaker Mellanox Technologies Ltd.
Topix and Nikkei rose 1.52% and 1.79% respectively overnight. The Hang Seng is up 1.2% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp rose 0.48% and 0.76% so far, with the Shenzen Comp up 0.88%.
The ASX underperformed and closed with a loss of -0.09%, as Aussie loans data again came out negative.
US futures are broadly higher, while the front end WTI future saw a high of USD 57.14 before falling back to now USD 56.91 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has continued its rise after the positive Brexit news, trading around the 1.1256 Resistance level, far from both the next 1.1224 Support and 1.13 Resistance.
GBPUSD gained on the positive Brexit developments, breaking through the 1.32 Resistance but the MACD suggests that this may be running out of steam.
XAUUSD continues to fluctuate around the 1295 mark, with the MACD and Stochastics indicators pointing to the downside as price it hits its 200HMA.
USDJPY continues to move upwards, with immediate Resistance at the 200HMA level at 111.54, while Stochastics and the MACD point downwards.
Main Macro Events Today
Industrial and Manufacturing Production (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Industrial and Manufacturing Production are expected to have remained flat registering 0.0% m/m growth in January, compared to a 0.5% and 0.7% declines in December.
Consumer Price Inflation (USD, 12:30) – US CPI is expected to stand at the same level as in January, both for the overall and the core index, at 2.2% and 1.6% respectively.
Brexit Vote (EUR, USD, N/A) – The UK Parliament will vote on whether it will accept May’s amended deal, in light of today’s agreement on the backstop.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
The dollar pulled ahead from a nine-day low on Thursday, largely helped by the pound snapping back after a sharp rally made on Brexit relief.
MPs surprised the government and voted by 312 to 308 to reject a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances. The vote is not binding – under current law the UK could still leave without a deal on 29 March.
Another vote tonight, with British lawmakers widely expected to vote in favour of a Brexit delay.
US grounded Boeing’s 737 Max 8 and 9 fleet as announced by the FAA, with Boeing itself recommending that the 737 Max should be taken out of service. More than 370 such planes are operated. Boeing saw its value decline by $26.6 billion this week.
Data from China point to the negative as unemployment has risen, industrial production growth has slowed, even though retail sales continue to grow.
Gold declined as the Dollar strengthened, still trading about 1300. Oil reaffirmed its gains and traded around $58.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD continued its rise after the rejection of the no-deal Brexit. The pair broke through its 200HMA, and the Resistance point at 1.13, but has not managed to stay above the 1.1330 Resistance. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
GBPUSD gained after the rejection of the no-deal Brexit, breaking through the 200HMA yesterday, but bouncing off both the 1.3336 Resistance level and the 1.3245 Support.
XAUUSD lost as the Dollar gained yesterday, coming down from the 1310 highs and currently trading at 1302. The MACD and Stochastics are issuing negative signals.
USDJPY continues its slow upwards movement, breaking through the sideways channel as it is currently trading above its 200HMA level at 111.50, with immediate Resistance at 111.68. MACD and Stochastics are showing signs of saturation.
Main Macro Events Today
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have risen last week, by 2K and 20K respectively, reaching 225K and 1.775K.
New Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) –New Home Sales are expected to have marginally declined in January, to 0.62M from 0.621M in December.
Brexit Vote (EUR, GBP, N/A) – The UK Parliament will vote on whether a Brexit delay should be pursued.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian indices broadly higher amid fresh hopes on the US-Sino trade front.
BoJ kept policy unchanged as expected, exports seen weighing on outlook.
Trump-Xi summit pushed back to end of April, USTR cited “major issues”.
Xinhua news agency reported that Chinese Vice Premier Liu He had a telephone conversation with US Secretary Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Lighthizer and that further substantive progress on trade talks has been made.
UK lawmakers backed a delay to the Brexit process.
PM May set to ask for a short term extension if her Brexit deal gets through by March 20, i.e. before the next EU summit, or a long term delay if not.
European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures.
WTI future is trading at USD 58.76 per barrel.
EURUSD softer after posting 9-day high at 1.1341 following soft US PPI
USDJPY lifted to 1-week highs above 111.70; Yen wary of BoJ dovish tone.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD found a floor at 1.1310 after rebounding from 1.1290 and overall remains in an uptrend. The same positive bias held intraday as well, with MAs pointing upwards and RSI sloping above 50.
GBPUSD is trading in a descending triangle. Support is held at 50-period SMA at 1.3225 and Resistance at 1.3265. A break of these barriers could suggest the near term direction for Pound.
XAUUSD rebounded from 1297 and broke the 1300 barrier earlier. Upper Bollinger bands are extending higher while the asset has regained more than 60% of the losses seen yesterday, turning the negative near term outlook to a positive one.
Main Macro Events Today
BoJ Kuroda Speech – Due to speak at the B20 Tokyo Summit.
EU Final CPI – The overall Eurozone HICP is anticipated at 1.5% y/y.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales – the Manufacturing shipment values are expected to edge 0.5% higher in January after the 1.3% drop in December.
Michigan Sentiment and Industrial Data– Industrial production is projected to rise 0.4% in February, after a 0.6% drop in January, while capacity utilization should rise to 78.4% from 78.2% in January. An early March Michigan Sentiment reading is expected of 96.0 , up from 93.8 in February, but well below the 14-year high of 101.4 last March.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Stock markets rallied in Asia with Chinese indices leading the advance as markets prepare for a cautious Fed meeting this week.
China’s promise to support the economy via a cut in the VAT rate is adding support and helping markets to leave December lows far behind.
US futures are also on the rise as are European futures.
Japanese exports decline for a third consecutive month. Singapore non-oil exports swUng to surprise 4.9% rise in February after 3 months of decline
North Korea may suspend nuclear talks with the US, according to Russia’s TASS.
Brexit: May is still trying to get her Brexit deal over the line ahead of the March 21/22 EU summit, with an extension now needed even if the deal goes through.
BCC published a report showing that UK business investment is on course to decline by 1.0% in 2019, which would be the worst in a decade.
EURUSD above 1.1300, after marking 10-day peak near 1.1345 on tame Fed view.
USDJPY tipped lower on N. Korea back-track after printing 9-day peak at 111.90.
IEA warned of sharp Venezuela supply drop, but OPEC has spare capacity to offset.
The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $58.40.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD found some ground on Friday’s closing. It is currently trading above its 10-day peak, in the upper BB pattern. Next Resistance 1.1360(50DMA) and Support at 1.1320 (20DMA).
GBPUSD is consolidating in the upper 1.32 area. Overall it remains in an up channel.
NZDUSD: Broke 3-day High and currently retesting the upper line of a descending triangle. Bullish inverse Head and Shoulders has also been identified in the hourly chart. Resistance holds at 0.6875-0.6900.
XAUUSD rebounded from 1,298 the past hour up to 1,304 area. Any consecutive bullish candles could suggest a positive intraday outlook.
Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone Trade data – Eurozone trade data as well as current account data are likely to reflect the global pressure on exports. January’s trade balance is expected to fall to EUR 13.2 bln, vs EUR 15.6 bln in February.
US NAHB Housing Market Index – The NAHB Housing Market Index for March kicks off the week, and it is expected to rise to 63 from 62 last time.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
The main focus is the eagerly awaited Fed announcement tomorrow, with the US central bank expected to turn down the to just one rate hike this year, and the USD remains in “wait n see mode” ahead of FED tomorrow.
Central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand hold policy meetings this week and are expected to stay on hold as well.
In the RBA minutes, the outlook for the Aussie economy was mentioned as having “significant uncertainties’, as house prices cooled significantly more than expected too.
However, while the prospect of ongoing support from central banks and governments helped stock markets to move higher across Asia yesterday, today’s trading saw a broad correction, with Chinese indices, which outperformed Monday, underperforming today.
The Shanghai Comp lost -0.63%, the CSI 300 was down -0.82%, while the Hang Seng had declined -0.23%. Topix and Nikkei closed with losses of -0.21% and -0.08% respectively and the ASX was down -0.09% in the end.
US futures are posting fractional gains, while European futures are down. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 58.98 per barrel, after touching a high of USD 59.14 overnight.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD traded up and down yesterday, ranging around the 1.1345 Resistance level, breaking through it early today. Still below yesterday’s peak, MAs suggest the Euro will strengthen, supported by the MACD, while Stochastics suggest that it is overvalued.
GBPUSD is consolidating in the upper 1.32 area, moving on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics are showing down signals.
USDJPY has continued its downwards trend breaking through the 200HMA yesterday, reaching as low as 111.18, with Resistance standing at 111.40 and Support at 111.08.
XAUUSD continues to trade above the $1300 mark, in a slight upwards trend, even though Stochastics and MACD show signs of regression. Data releases and any Brexit developments today could affect it.
Main Macro Events Today
Average Earnings ex Bonus and Unemployment Rate (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Average Earnings in the UK are expected to have stood at 3.4% in the three months to January, the same growth rate as the previous time. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4%.
Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – March’s economic sentiment index is expected to stand at -18.7, a decline from the -16.6 observed in February.
Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – Factory orders are expected to have grown by 0.3% in January, compared to 0.1% in December.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Fed day today – will they be as dovish as the markets seem to think? No change on the rates is expected but their musings on the future path of monetary policy, both conventional as well as with regards to its balance sheet position will be key for the USD and bond yields.
Ahead of today’s awaited Fed announcement the Asian session also experienced some profit taking as markets expected a dovish turn.
In the Asian session stocks traded narrowly mixed, with Chinese markets underperforming amid reports that China is pushing back against some of the US demands in trade talks.
Overall though traders see signs of eagerness to come to a deal among Chinese officials ahead of further trade talks as US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are set to travel to China next week.
Topix and Nikkei managed to close with gains of 0.26% and 0.20% respectively. The ASX, however, was down -0.31% at the close and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses are also in the red.
US futures are little changed and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 58.97 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD traded mostly above the 1.1345 Resistance level, even though very close to it, in anticipation of the Fed meeting. Indicators are showing signs of consolidation.
GBPUSD is moving in a similar way as the EURUSD consolidating in the upper 1.32 area, for the 5th consecutive day, moving on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics support consolidation.
USDJPY moved slightly up on the leading indicator announcement, which showed worse than expected performance compared to the previous month. After etching to 111.60, the pair declined slightly, a move supported by both MACD and Stochastics.
XAUUSD is still above the $1300 mark, while some downwards momentum exists despite indicators pointing upwards. The Fed decision is expected to have a strong effect on Gold.
Main Macro Events Today
Retail, Producer, and Consumer Price Indices (GBP, GMT 09:30) – Both the CPI and the RPI are expected to have registered the same growth as January, showing 2.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively. The PPI is expected to have grown by 4.3% y/y compared to 2.9% y/y last month.
Fed Interest Rate Decision (USD, GMT 18:00) – The eagerly awaited Fed decision is expected to shed light as to whether the 2 rate hike policy is to be continued or whether one rate hike is to be expected. Furthermore, comments on its potential balance sheet actions could also affect the markets.
Gross Domestic Product (NZD, GMT 21:45) – New Zealand GDP is expected to have grown by 2.5% y/y in 2018Q4, compared to 2.6% in 2018Q3.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
The EU summit starts today and while Brexit is not the only topic on the agenda, it will likely dominate discussions, after PM May yesterday officially asked for an extension until June 30 and ruled out that she as Prime Minister would ask for a long extension.
EU council president Tusk in his official response made it clear that a short extension will only be possible if the Withdrawal Agreement has been backed by MPs in London.
Tusk did not rule out a long extension but as May has made it clear that she as PM won’t ask for one, that is currently not on the table.
After an interesting meeting yesterday, the Fed was even more dovish than expected, suggesting that no rate hikes would take place in 2019, although leaving the window open for some hikes in 2020.
Overall, the Fed commented that a patient, semi-neutral approach was the best at this point, after the cooling in growth and inflation. Justification was sought in slower growth, static payrolls, weaker household spending and a decline in overall inflation.
In addition, the Fed also confirmed plans to taper in May, and then end in September, the balance sheet runoff.
Trump, following the Fed, tweeted that tariffs on Chinese goods could be in place for a “substantial period”. Equities dropped, after increasing as a result of the Fed dovishness.
Dow closed down 0.55% and under its 20 SMA. Asian shares are less impacted, but Japan is closed today.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD pushed higher than the 1.14 level on the Fed dovishness, with expected Resistance at 1.1433, and then at 1.15. Indicators are supportive of a consolidation/downtrend mode this morning.
GBPUSD is slightly regaining its losses, still moving around the 1.32 area, on a sideways channel, still below end-February highs. MACD and Stochastics can perhaps be interpreted as sending positive signals.
USDJPY dropped heavily on the Fed announcement, crossing the 110.72 Support and its 200HMA. The next Support level is at 110.34, even though the MACD and Stochastics do not appear to agree with the downwards trend.
XAUUSD gained significantly and is trading at $1319, while some downwards momentum continues to exist according to the indicators. The Fed decision did have a strong effect, as suggested yesterday, and the question is whether Gold can now break through the $1321 Resistance level, or will retrace to the $1313 Support.
Main Macro Events Today
European Council Meeting (EUR, GBP, Full Day) – One of the most important European Council Meetings for the year, given that Theresa May will likely aim to provide justification for a Brexit delay.
Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the Unemployment Rate is expected to have remained at 5% in February, employment change is expected to have eased, increasing by 15K compared to 39K last month.
SNB Interest Rate Decision (CHF, GMT 08:30) – The SNB is not expected to surprise markets as the Swiss rate is forecast to remain at -0.75%.
Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have eased, growing by 0.2% on a m/m basis, compared to 1.2% in January.
BoE Interest Rate Decision (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Shadowed by the ongoing political developments in Brexit, the BoE is not expected to proceed with any interest rate actions.
CPI inflation (JPY, GMT 23:30) – National Core CPI for Japan is expected to have declined to 0.3% m/m in February, compared to 0.4% in January.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Bund yields slightly higher in opening trade after cautious session on Asian stock markets.
EU hands UK another 2 weeks to avoid no-deal Brexit, eyes May 22 exit if deal passes, otherwise PM May must come up with a Plan B. If the deal gets through, an extension until May 22 has already been backed by the EU-27.
Japan’s nationwide core CPI undershot expectations at 0.7% y/y in February.
The European calendar focuses on Eurozone prel. March Manufacturing PMI readings.
Gold whipsawed back toward $1,300 by resurgent USD index near 96.5
EURUSD corrected back under 1.1400.
USDJPY up from 5-week low of 110.28.
WTI crude has settled slightly below $60.0 after posting a fresh 4-month high at $60.39
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD is slightly below Pivot Point of the day and the 38.2% Fib from the week’s peak, at 1.1385. A decisive break could lead towards 1.1410 Resistance. However indicators are not supportive, as they remain negatively configured.
GBPUSD topped at 1.3160, however the last 4 small body candles along with the latest doji candle suggest that upside movement might reach an end. Support at 1.3113 and 1.3000.
USDJPY dropped further into London open, down to 110.70. Indicators retreated from neutral zone, with RSI looking lower. The next Support level is at 110.64, and 110.36.
Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 49.5 from 49.3 and the services reading to ease slightly to a still strong 52.7 from 52.8, which should leave the composite slightly higher at 52.0, versus 51.9 in the previous month.
Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to climb 0.5% in February (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in January, boosted by stronger gasoline prices and seasonal strength in February’s CPI.
Canadian Retail Sales – The Retail sales are anticipated at 0.3% in January after the 0.1% dip in December.
US Home Sales – Sales are estimated to grow 0.6% following a 1.0% December decline. The I/S(Inventory to Sales) ratio should edge down to 1.32, from 1.33.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th March 2019.
[IMG]
Events to Look Out For Next Week
The Brexit saga continues next week with the Vote standing out as the event of the week, even though important data releases are scheduled across many currencies in the coming days.
Monday – 25 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________
* All Industy Activity Index (JPY, GMT 04:30) – The Industry Index, known for its leading indicator abilities, is expected to have stood at 0.2% m/m in January, compared to -0.4% in December.
* German Business Climate (EUR, 09:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.
* Trade Balance (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The overall trade deficit of New Zealand is expected to have declined to $6.1 billion in February, compared to $6.4 billion in January.
Monday – 26 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________
* Housing Data (USD, GMT 00:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency.
* CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month.
Monday – 27 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________
* Interest Rate Decision (NZD, GMT 01:00) – No change is expected in the RBNZ meeting, with the Central Bank likely to also push forward a “wait-and-see” stance.
* Trade Balance (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 98.7 compared with 98.5 last month.
Monday – 28 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________
* German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month.
* US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%.
* Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January.
Monday – 29 March 2019
_________________________________________________________________________
* UK Final GDP (GBP, GMT 09:00) – UK economic activity is expected to have remained at its preliminary level of 1.3% y/y in 2018Q4.
* US Personal Spending (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal Spending is expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m in January, compared to a 0.5% m/m reduction in the previous month.
* Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to have declined to 61.8 compared to 64.7 last month, however still showcasing growth.
* UK Parliament Vote (GBP, Tentative) – The UK Parliament is expected to convene in order to vote for a revised Theresa May plan or in favour of a no-deal Brexit.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 26th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are up 2.8 bp at 2.427%, JGB yields climbed 1.8 bp to -0.076% amid a mixed session on Asian stock markets.
Japanese markets in particular rebounded from yesterday’s sell off after sentiment started to stabilize during the US session yesterday and Wall Street closed little changed.
The sharp drop in US bond yields last week and the shape of the yield curve revived fears of a global recession last week, but while yields remain at low levels for now at least the mood seems to be slowly lifting.
Markets will continue to keep a very close eye on the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and three months bills, which is judged to be a key recession indicator and inverted last Friday. This week’s US bond auctions will be closely watched.
The UK Parliament takes control of the Brexit process after May’s defeat, with a new vote scheduled for tomorrow.
Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 2.57% and 2.15% respectively. The ASX gained 0.07%, while Hang Seng and Shanghai comp are down -0.15% and -1.35%.
US futures are higher as are the European ones. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 59.21 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has been trading around the 1.13 level, breaking below but not maintaining it yesterday. Immediate Resistance at 1.1338, at the 200HMA. Indicators are also not registering any up or down signals.
GBPUSD continues to trade around the 1.32 level, in a tight channel between this and the 1.3223 200HMA level. The MACD does not show much action, while Stochastics issue bullish signs.
USDJPY dropped below the 110.34 level, trading around the 110 level, which appears to hold despite some breakouts below it. Resistance remains at 110.34 and Support, after the 110 immediate level, lies at 109.80.
XAUUSD broke below the 1320 level early today, with the MACD registering bullish signs as the Stochastics indicator is moving in the oversold region. Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively.
Main Macro Events Today
Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts and Building Permits are expected to have increased marginally in February, while the S&P House Price Index is expected to have continued its deceleration, growing by 3.9% in January, compared to 4.2% in December. As in previous occasions, housing market data usually have more impact on the stock market than on the currency.
CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have increased to 132.1, compared to 131.4 in the previous month.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Bund yields are coming down again and the 10-year Treasury rate is at 2.412%, down -1.1 bp on the day, underperforming versus bonds in Australia, New Zealand and China.
The US 10-year rate remains below the 3-month rate, which continues to feed concerns about the growth outlook and the risk of recession, especially against the background of dovish shifts at major central banks, and is underpinning choppy trade in stocks.
Japanese equities, which outperformed Tuesday, underperformed today and Topix and Nikkei lost -0.52% and -0.23% respectively.
Chinese markets, meanwhile, outperformed after heading south yesterday, although mainland China indices are down from earlier highs. The Shanghai benchmark is still up 0.60%, the blue-chip CSI 300 1.00% higher on the day and the Hang Seng up 0.59%.
US stock futures are also moving higher in tandem with European futures and the front end WTI future is at USD 60 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD broke through the 1.13 level yesterday, and is currently trading around its 1.1256 Support level. Immediate Resistance is at 1.13. Indicators are issuing positive signals.
GBPUSD pushed down from the 1.32 level, trading around the 1.318 Support level, while the indicators suggest a slightly upwards tendency.
USDJPY gained yesterday, breaking through the 110.34 Resistance level and is now trading between it and the 110.73 Resistance. Indicators are showing bearish signs.
XAUUSD same as yesterday, Support and Resistance levels remain at 1313.8 and 1320 respectively, with Gold trading between those two bands.
Biggest loser – NZDUSD: After the RBNZ’s comments that the next interest rate move is likely to be a reduction, the Kiwi lost 104 pips, pulling the AUD down along the way, albeit in a shorter movement. Resistance stands at 0.6807, while Support is at 0.6790.
Main Macro Events Today
Draghi Speech (EUR, GMT 08:00) – The ECB President is due to speak at the “ECB and its Watchers” conference in Frankfurt, where many other ECB representatives are also expected to speak.
US and Canada Trade Balance (USD / CAD, GMT 12:30) – Both trade deficits are expected to improve, with the US trade deficit expected to decrease to $57 billion from $59.8 billion last month. The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have declined to $3.5 billion from $4.6 billion in December.
UK Brexit Vote (GBP, GMT 19:30) – Many options on the table for today’s vote, including a second referendum, customs union, revoking Article 50, and, of course, no-deal Brexit.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Slide in global bond yields continues.
The flattening or outright inversion of yield curves meanwhile is fuelling recession fears and also turning into a self-sustained cycle.
Bund yields drop below those of JGBs yesterday after ECB tiered depo story potentially pushing the timing of the first rate hike.
US Equities dragged lower by deeper curve inversion, taken as global risk signal.
WTI crude down 1% under $59.30 after mixed EIA – crude build, product draws.
Brexit: May’s pledge to step down may not be enough to secure her deal.
GBP steady as Brexit process reaches defining phase; no-deal exit now very unlikely.
DUP still doesn’t back Withdrawal Agreement.
MPs yesterday rejected a range of alternative options, but with the customs union proposal coming pretty close and losing by just 8 votes, so that seems to be the front runner in alternative scenarios to May’s deal.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD has formed a falling wedge since March 27. Indicators are issuing neutral to positive signals. This pattern is still in the process of forming. Possible bullish price movement towards the resistance 1.1283 within the next 6 hours.
GBPUSD rebounded from 1.3140 and is trading a breath below PP level at 1.3193. Support is set at 1.3118 as the indicators suggest a slightly downwards tendency.
USDJPY bottomed at 110.05, with next Support at 109.70 level. Indicators are negatively configured suggesting further negative bias intraday.
Main Macro Events Today
German CPI (EUR, N/A) – The German inflation rate is expected to have increased to 0.6%, compared to 0.4% in the previous month.
US Final GDP (USD, GMT 12:30) – The final release of the 2018Q4 GDP growth rate is expected to see the world largest economy’s economic activity to have grown by 2.4% compared with the preliminary reading of 2.6%.
Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in March, at the same level as in February. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 1.4% m/m in February, compared to -3.4% m/m in January, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y in February, compared to 0.6% in January.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are up 0.5 bp at 2.400% and JGB rates lifted 0.6 bp to -0.100% amid a broad move higher in long yields across Asia.
Hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks helped to underpin confidence and stock market sentiment improved after Mnuchin said he had a “productive working dinner” in Beijing yesterday with the US Treasury Secretary and US Trade Representative in China to resume trade talks.
Chinese markets in particular benefited and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 3.49% and 2.85% respectively. The Hang Seng has risen 0.97% so far, while Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 0.56% and 0.82% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.08%. US futures are also broadly higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 59.54 per barrel.
The Brexit Vote today, which only includes the Withdrawal Agreement and not the Political declaration, will likely fail, again. The day is largely symbolic as today was supposed to be Brexit Day.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD continued its downwards trend, breaking through the 1.1256 Support level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill as both the MACD and Stochastics point to the upside.
GBPUSD keeps declining as fears of no-deal Brexit continue, currently fluctuating around the 1.30 Support. Indicators are registering mixed signals as the MACD is positive and the Stochastics are negative, while the short MA crossed the long MA a couple of hours ago.
USDJPY gained some despite mixed Japanese data, as the country appears to have been able to maintain its inflation at stable levels. The pair broke through the 110.73 level and is currently trading just below the 200HMA at 110.62. Both MACD and Stochastics are pointing downwards.
XAUUSD remained flat below the $1300 mark after the drop from the 1311 level yesterday. No particular movements observed from the indicators.
Main Macro Events Today
UK GDP (GBP, GMT 09:30) – 2018Q4 GDP is expected not to have seen any material changes from its preliminary estimate and remain at 1.3% y/y.
PCE and PCE Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Personal spending is expected to have increased by 0.3% in January, compared to a reduction of 0.5% last month. PCE inflation is expected to have remained at 1.9%, the same as in December.
Canada GDP (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian GDP is expected to have registered no m/m growth in January, compared to a 0.1% contraction in December.
UK Parliament Brexit Vote (GBP/EUR, GMT 13:30) – The final call for Brexit, with MPs having to vote on a deal that is essentially the same as before albeit not defining the UK’s future relationship with the EU.
Chicago PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – The Chicago PMI is expected to register signs of weakness in March, reducing to 61.0 from 64.7.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 01st April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Bond yields continue to recover from recent lows.
Stock markets started the second quarter with renewed optimism.
USA500 still posted the best quarter in a decade.
Signs of progress in U.S.-Sino trade talks helped to underpin sentiment and saw mainland China bourses outperforming amid a general move higher in Asian stock markets. Both sides said there was progress in talks.
An unexpected jump in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI to 50.8 revived hopes that government measures to boost the economy.
The front end WTI future is trading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid sanctions, production cuts.
USDJPY edged 8-day high at 111.17.
EURUSD rebounded to 1.1240 overnight after printing 3-week low of 1.1207.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD rebounded, breaking through the 1.1240 R1 level. However, it appears to have reached the end of the hill for today as it is currently looking southwards with RSI sloping lower as well.
GBPUSD keeps inclining so far today, but remains close to Pivot at 1.3048 as fears of no-deal Brexit continue.
USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.18, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwind. USDJPY has support at 110.50-53, levels which encompasses the prevailing situation of the 100-day moving average.
NZDUSD – top gainer so far along with Aussie – jumped at 0.6836, from Thursday’sFriday’s tweezer bottom. A confirmation of this formation and a move above the 20-day SMM at 0.6840, could turn the attention to last week’s highs around at 0.6900.
Main Macro Events Today
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to remain unchanged at 49.5 in March.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Prices are expected to be confirmed at 1.5%y/y in March, with core inflation holding at 1%.
Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February’s Retail Sales are expected to have grown by 0.3% m/m, from the 0.2% rise in January.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 54.5 in March, compared to the 2-year low of 54.2 in February.
BREXIT Vote on alternative plans
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Wall Street was higher overnight, followed by the better than expected US manufacturing ISM and construction spending reports (they offset disappointing retail sales).
JGB yields still moved higher, in tandem with most Asian stock markets, but the buoyant mood in equities that dominated yesterday’s session turned a bit more muted, as the focus turned from revived hopes on a US-Sino trade deal and a recovery in the manufacturing sector to Brexit risks.
RBA left monetary policy on hold amid increased downside risks, but seems to be awaiting the fiscal injection that is expected to be unveiled today.
UK Parliament rejected all options on Brexit compromise, customs union close miss.
GBP was under pressure due to revived concerns of a no-deal scenario.
WTI crude rallied 2% to a fresh 5-mth high near $61.82, on supply side tightness.
USDJPY lifted to 11-day highs amid risk-on; EURUSD hit 3-week low near 1.12.
GOLD holds the key 1285 level – at 1287.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
GBPUSD is under pressure once again, trading southwards below its Pivot for the 10th consecutive hourly session. A breach and break of S1 at 1.3025 could suggest the retest of 26-day Support at 1.2970.
USDJPY printed an 11-day high at 111.45, as the safe haven premium of the Japanese currency unwinds. USDJPY has support at 111.20.
NZDUSD holds at 3-week lows. Support holds at 0.6770. The next support on the break of the latter is at 0.6750. If the asset rebounds however, Resistance has been set at 0.6800. Overall outlook remains negative due to the descending triangle formation and the decreasing momentum indicators in the daily chart.
BTCUSD – biggest mover – Spiked to 5013 from 4216. However, intraday the asset looks overbought, with RSI at 81, and a doji closing the past hour.
Main Macro Events Today
UK Markit Construction PMI (GBP, GMT 08:30) – The Construction PMI is expected to improve to a 50.0 reading after dropping sharply in February to 49.5, which was the lowest reading since July 2016 (the month after the vote to leave the EU).
Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – February Durable Goods orders are expected to decline to 1.2%, following a 0.3% January gain.
Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (USD, GMT 12:30)
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Stock markets continued to recover during the Asian session, with concerns that the world economy is sliding into recession calmed by better data out of China and trade talk hopes.
Sentiment was underpinned by a stronger than expected services PMI out of China. Further sign that economic growth is coming back.
US as well as European equity futures are also moving higher.
Brexit: UK PM May would sit down with Opposition leader Corbyn to try and break the deadlock. Meanwhile, new referendum in the UK on EU membership and a customs union now are both looking increasingly likely.
A compromise needs to be found before the EU emergency summit on April 10 to secure another extension until May 22.
GBP cleared $1.3100 after PM May talked up another deal, despite Commons failure.
WTI crude surged over clear $62.87; Gold capped near $1,291 by USD index 1-month high.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
GBPUSD jumped in London open, above latest peak at 1.3150. Next Resistance levels are set at 1.3178 and 1.3230. Support holds at 200-period SMA at 1.3120, for 12 consecutive hourly sessions.
EURUSD holds Support at 1.1216, which was the initial resistance. With momentum indicators though looking to turn southwards a break of this level could shift the asset back to PP level at 1.1200.
USDJPY probed 111.45 highs amid risk-on, by breaking 2-day peak and R1 for the day. Currently it is retesting the 111.56, which is a breath above the upper BB level and coincides with FE161.80 extension (from March rebound) and the latest up fractal. This could be a retracement level for the asset.
AUDUSD hit 50-day SMA at 0.7117. this area could provide some resistance to the asset, as the asset lacks of positive momentum based on the daily indicators. Abreak however of the latter but more precisely of yesterday’s high at 0.7128, might push Aussie to the next barrier at 0.7160.
Main Macro Events Today
Retail Sales and Services (EUR, GMT 08:00-09:00) – Eurozone March Services reading expected to be confirmed at 51.3, while Retails sales could spike to 2.3% y/y in February.
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 165k for March compared to the 183K in February.
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM non-Manufacturing PMI in the US is expected to slip to 58.7 in March, compared to 59.7 in February, supporting the strong economic climate despite the small decrease in its value.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.513% and JGB yields fell back -0.5 bp to -0.060%, as the stock rally stalled during the Asian session and the USD consolidated overnight.
Big misses for ADP Jobs (50k) and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (19-month low) pressed a pause on Equity rally.
Parliament passed (by 1 vote) a bill to ask to extend Brexit Day beyond April 12, but it remains unclear whether there is time to get it through by May 22. A longer extension looks most likely while the odds of a full 2nd Referendum odds are also increased.
Asian markets are mostly trading narrowly mixed, with traders waiting for another catalyst such as tangible progress on the US-Sino trade talks before pushing equity markets out further following the recent rally.
Topix and Nikkei are down -0.11% and unchanged on the day respectively. The Hang Seng dropped -0.42%, while CSI 400 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.80%, with hopes of government stimulus after the government said it plans to cut some airline fees adding support. The ASX meanwhile lost -0.83%.
Oil futures are trading at USD 62.37 per barrel.
German Factory Orders just in and is a big miss it is (-4.2% vs expectations of +0.3%), putting the German Industry in recession territory.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
GBPUSD reacted positively after the UK Parliament asked the government to ask for another extension of the Brexit deadline. Resistance level remains at 1.3184, with a strong one at 1.32, while Support is bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3137.
EURUSD is trading close to but below its 200HMA at 1.1248, affected by the weaker than expected US data, with indicators not showing a clear direction.
USDJPY paused its rise after the worsening in US data releases, stabilizing around the 111.40 level. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.73 and 111.68, although the former could change as the 200HMA could be binding.
XAUUSD continues trading below 1300, fluctuating around the 1290 mark. Next Resistance point is at 1294.50 with indicators suggesting a mild upwards movement.
Main Macro Events Today
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Accounts, similar to the FOMC Minutes, provide an insight with regards to the policymakers’ thinking about the European economy’s potential.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased over the last week of March, while Initial Jobless Claims are forecast to have increased.
Canada PMI (CAD, GMT 14:00) – The Canadian PMI is expected to have risen to 51.1 in March, compared to 50.6 in February.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 2.528%, JGB yields down -0.7 bp at -0.0585 amid subdued trade on Asian stock markets.
China was closed for a holiday and elsewhere markets traded mixed, with Topix and Nikkei managing gains of 0.23% and 0.28% respectively, while the ASX closed with a loss of 0.83%, although the latter was an exception, with most markets managing slight gains.
There were some optimistic comments on the progress of the US-Sino trade deal from China, with Trump tweeting that he expects a deal “within 4 weeks” but after the recent run higher in equities traders will want to see more than words before pushing valuations higher.
Markets will also be holding back ahead of key US payroll data today amid lingering concerns about the outlook for world growth. US futures are posting slight gains ahead of the key release, with the Dow Jones mini up 0.133%.
GBP picked up (back over 1.3100) on a Brexit “Flexi-Extension” offer from the EU which suggests an extension of up to 12 months, but Britain could leave at any time if they signed an agreement.
The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 62.16 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
GBPUSD reacted positively to “Flexi-Brexit”, showing upwards potential with Resistance at the 200HMA at 1.3126, and a stronger one at 1.3184, while Support stands at 1.3067.
EURUSD moved up and down yesterday, with MAs showing an upwards movement with Resistance at its 200HMA at 1.1238, with both the MACD and Stochastics showing upwards signs.
USDJPY continued its rise, breaking through the 110.68 level and trading around that level as of this morning. Both the MACD and the Stochastics indicators are suggesting a downturn. Support and Resistance remain at 110.95 and 111.80.
XAUUSD has been trading in the 1285-1294 band, with indicators giving out mixed signals. Support and Resistance are marked as the channel bounds.
Main Macro Events Today
NonFarm Payrolls, Earnings, Unemployment (USD, GMT 12:30) – The most important piece of news this week, NFPs are expected to have grown by 180K, compared to 20K in the previous month, while earnings and unemployment are expected to have remained at the same levels.
Canada Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian Participation Rate is expected to have declined to 65.7% compared to 65.8% last month, while the net change in employment is expected to have been just 1K compared to 55.9K last month. Unemployment is not expected to have changed.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th April 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.485% and 10-year JGB yields fell back -2.9 bp to -0.069%.
Stock markets failed to get lasting support from China stimulus hopes and the rebound in US payrolls on Friday. Indices climbed initially after a document published on the central government website yesterday suggested Beijing would step up the policy of targeted cuts to banks’ reserve ratios in a bid to encourage lending to small and medium sized companies.
However, while the ASX still managed to close 0.54% higher, Chinese bourses erased earlier gains and Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp are down -0.03% and -0.87% respectively, while the CSI 300 blue chip index is down -0.75%. Topix and Nikkei also struggled and lost -0.42% and -0.25%.
Earnings reports are coming into focus and investors are positioning for lacklustre results.
US futures are also heading south, which suggests a correction from the six month high seen last week after the employment report. President Trump pressured the Fed to do more to sustain growth, while official comments from both sides suggest progress in trade talks.
Oil prices are higher and the front end WTI future trading at USD 63.33 per barrel, amid concerns that fighting in Libya could lead to supply outages.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD moved in a downwards channel on Friday and early today, and has bounced off its 200HMA at 1.1230, although trading around it in the past couple of hours. Support still remains at 1.1213, while Resistance, after the 200HMA stands at 1.1233. Indicators are showing mixed signals.
GBPUSD gained some on the last trading hours, bouncing off the 1.3067 Resistance, although the overall trend is still down. Support remains at 1.3027. The MACD is registering positive signs as the Stochastics are showing negative.
USDJPY made a significant downwards move as the Japanese trade balance showed a surplus, compared to expectations of a deficit. After breaking through the 111.68 Support, the pair bounced off 111.34, as indicators are showing positive signs.
XAUUSD broke clear of the 1294.5 Resistance level, and is currently trading just above its 200HMA, at 1296. Next Resistance level is 1300.
Main Macro Events Today
Factory Orders (USD, GMT 14:00) – February orders are expected to have declined by 0.6% m/m, compared to a 0.1% increase in January.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2019.
Macro Events & News
By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 9, 2019
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are down -0.4 bp at 2.519% and JGB rates up 0.2 bp at -0.052%, as Asian stock markets traded narrowly mixed, with threats of new tariffs on European goods from President Trump adding to the cautious tone in the markets.
Topix and Nikkei are down -0.26% and 0.06% respectively, the Hang Seng is up 0.22% and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp up 0.11% and down -0.27% respectively, while the ASX closed down -0.01%, despite better than expected loans data.
US futures are also posting slight losses and overall it seems investors are in a holding position ahead of the earnings season and with no firm agreement on US-Sino trade talks yet.
Trump’s renewed threat of tariffs on European goods meanwhile acts as a reminder that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved.
Oil prices meanwhile continue to hold above USD 64 per barrel amid fighting in Libya.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD stabilized around the 1.125 level, unable to break past the 1.1276 level. Support stands at 1.1256, with indicators showing mixed signs.
GBPUSD broke through the 1.3067 level and is currently bound by the 200HMA at 1.3090, after positive news regarding a meeting between May, Merkel, and Macron. Support remains at 1.3067.
USDJPY continues its downwards move towards the 111.22 level capped by the 200HMA, as soft Resistance is at 111.50. Indicators are suggesting a pause of the movement.
XAUUSD is trading between the 1295-1300 marks, above its 200HMA and with indicators showing a slight downwards movement.
Main Macro Events Today
JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – Job vacancies are expected to have declined to 7.55M in February, compared to 7.58M in January.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 10th April 2019.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2019.
Macro Events & News
By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 10, 2019
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.4 bp at 2.486% as JGB yields fell back -0.4 bp to -0.063%.
The IMF’s growth downgrade has rekindled concerns about the outlook for the world economy and the US threat of new tariffs on imports from Europe has reminded markets that geopolitical trade tensions are far from resolved and put a stop to the rally in recovery in stock markets seen over the past week.
China’s bond yield rose to the highest this year as risk aversion flared up and the focus increasingly turns to China’s still large number of non-performing loans.
Markets are also looking to Europe today, where the EU has to make a decision on yet another Brexit extension. The IMF named Brexit as one of the risks to world growth.
Wall Street closed in the red and Asian markets also headed south, with Topix and Nikkei down -0.73% and -0.66%. The Hang Seng lost -0.34% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.10% and -0.14%.
US stock futures, however, are posting marginal gains, after yesterday’s correction on Wall Street.
The front end WTI future meanwhile continues to hold above USD 64 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD started moving upwards on early Wednesday, following the Brexit positive news, with both Stochastics and the MACD showing support for this movement.
GBPUSD has been fluctuating in the 1.3026-1.3067 range for the past hours, also bounded by the 200HMA at 1.3082. Stochastics and the MACD support an upwards movement.
USDJPY broke through the 200HMA, now at 111.31 early yesterday, but has been moving in a slight upwards trend after the worse than expected machinery orders for February. Indicators support the movement.
XAUUSD broke through the 1300 mark but is still bounded by the 1304 Resistance, with indicators appearing indecisive regarding the future trend in the pair.
Main Macro Events Today
UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production and GDP (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Manufacturing production is expected to have declined by 0.7% y/y on February, compared to -1.1% in January. Industrial Production is expected to have eased to 0.1% m/m compared to 0.6% m/m last month, while UK GDP for February is forecast to register zero growth m/m, down from 0.5% m/m in January.
ECB Interest Rate Decision (EUR, GMT 11:45) – No changes are expected in the ECB policy rate, even though some policy guidance should be offered, especially with regards to future rate hikes.
US CPI Inflation (USD, GMT 12:30) – Core CPI is expected to have remained at 2.1% y/y, close to the Fed’s 2% target. The overall index is forecast to rise to 1.8% compared to 1.5% in March.
European Council Summit on Brexit (EUR-GBP, GMT 16:00) – The future of Brexit is expected to be discussed in the summit, with the EU said to offer a “flextension” until either December 2019 or March 2020, even providing the UK with the opportunity to withdraw its application for leaving the EU.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 11th April 2019.
Macro Events & News
By
Dr Nektarios Michail
-
April 11, 2019
[IMG]
FX News Today
Treasury yields stabilised after falling yesterday in the wake of softer core CPI readings, while the US 10-year rate is up 0.5 bp at 2.470%.
10-year JGB yields fell back -0.2 bp to -0.068% in catch up trade and as stock market sentiment remains muted.
Indices traded mixed with Chinese markets underperforming.
Dovish leaning central banks revived growth concerns and geopolitical trade tensions also continue to hang over markets, with no tangible sign of a US-Sino trade deal.
The Brexit question was kicked down the line to October 31, but without a clear solution in sight.
Topix and Nikkei are down 0.4 bp and up 0.08% respectively, while Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lost -0.88% and -1.31%. The CSI 300 blue chip index is down -1.99% and the ASX closed with a loss of -0.36%.
US futures are also marginally in the red, while the front end WTI future is trading at USD 64.25 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD broke through the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, with soft Resistance at 1.1286 and strong resistance at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show mixed signals.
GBPUSD gained as news of the decision to delay Brexit was announced, even though whether it can persist above the 200HMA level of around 1.3086 is still unclear. Indicators show an easing of the trend.
USDJPY continues to trade below the 200HMA, now at 111.11 with both the Stochastics and the MACD showing support for an upwards trend.
XAUUSD broke 1304 after breaking the 1300 mark yesterday, currently trading between the 1309 and 1304 levels. Indicators again appear indecisive regarding the future trend of the pair.
Main Macro Events Today
US PPI ex Food & Energy (USD, GMT 11:30) – The US PPI is expected to have grown by 2.4% in March, compared to 2.5% last month, similar to the core CPI results yesterday.
Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 11:30) – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 211K, compared to 202K in the last week of March, while Continuing Jobless Claims are forecast to reach 1.738M against 1.717M last week.
Fedspeak: Clarida, Williams, Bullard, and Bowman (USD, Various) – All 4 FOMC Members are due to speak on monetary policy issues, a topic which is likely to affect markets, depending on the context.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
By Dr Nektarios Michail - April 12, 2019
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are unchanged at 2.497% and JGB yields up 0.6 bp at -0.059%, in catch up trade, after perky US PPI readings put pressure on bonds yesterday, even if they are not expected to alter the Fed’s patient policy setting for now.
Chinese bonds continue to underperform amid warnings on the still large number of non-performing loans that could threaten some banks and force the government to step in.
Stock markets traded mixed, again with China underperforming, as markets await key trade numbers. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.10% and up 0.67% respectively.
The Hang Seng lost -0.27% so far and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.49% and -0.26% respectively.
Reports of impending cost cuts at Australia’s largest bank meanwhile helped the ASX to close with a gain of 0.76%.
US futures are posting slight gains ahead of key earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD keeps trading above the 1.1276 level in the last few hours, after trading below that point through the night. A strong Resistance point remains at 1.13. Stochastics and the MACD show signals of a downwards move.
GBPUSD keeps trading around the 1.30 mark, crossing its 20HMA early today, but with indicators showing mixed signals.
USDJPY continues to increase and broke through the 111.68 level, and coming near the 111.80 Resistance. Stochastics and the MACD show an easing of the upwards movement.
XAUUSD had a bad day yesterday, breaking through four Support levels and ending below 1294. Since then, it has been registering a slow upwards trend, something more evident in the Stochastics than the MACD indicator.
Main Macro Events Today
China Imports and Exports (CNH, AUD, N/A) – Even though no exact time has been specified, China’s trade performance is expected to have a strong effect on its currency and the Aussie. Exports are expected to have increased, after a sharp decrease last month, while imports are still expected to have shown negative growth.
Industrial Production (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Industrial Production is expected to have decreased by 0.6%, compared to growth of 1.4% in January.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, 14:00) – US Sentiment is expected to decline to 98.0 in April, compared to 98.4 in March.
Support and Resistance
Click here to access the Economic Calendar
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th April 2019.
By
Andria Pichidi
-
April 15, 2019
[IMG]
FX News Today
The broad rise in Asian long yields holds as local stock markets rallied in catch up trade after a strong close on Wall Street.
Trade talk hopes, signs of improving growth and low inflation, coupled with positive earnings reports continued to underpin stock market sentiment. Mnuchin suggested over the weekend that US-Sino talks are nearing the final round and that the final agreement would go “way beyond” previous efforts to open China’s markets to US companies.
US futures are narrowly mixed while European stock markets are underpinned.
Japanese markets are closing for 10 consecutive days from April 27 to May 6, inclusive.
After the strong first quarter earnings report from JPMorgan on Friday the focus is now turning to Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America.
The front end WTI future is trading at $63.53 per barrel.
USD and JPY lower vs most currencies, risk appetite up on strong China import data.
GBP steady after EU Brexit extension; risk is it won’t resolve UK political gridlock.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD keeps trading close to 3-week highs of 1.1323. Stochastics, RSI and the MACD show signals of further improvement intraday. Next Resistance point holds at 1.1330.
GBPUSD pulled back under 1.3100 after leaving a high at 1.3120. It is supported from the confluence of 200-period EMA and PP level the past 7 consecutive hours, at 1.3084. Next Support is set at 1.3065.
USDJPY settled at around PP level at 111.90 . However after Friday’s high the positive sentiment is decreasing with intraday RSI and MACD turning lower as the overall outlook remains positive. The upside Resistance level is set at 112.19, while Support now comes in at 111.68.
Main Macro Events Today
FOMC Member Evans Speaks – Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans is due to speak in a television appearance on CNBC’s Squawk Box.
BOC Business Outlook Survey – The BoC’s outlook survey is expected to show an economy still moving along at a decent pace, but facing a number of challenges. This is a key report for the upcoming BoC announcement and MPR, as the Bank makes frequent references to the findings of the survey. A survey consistent with modest but still respectable growth, well contained inflation expectations and an unwinding in capacity pressures would line-up with our expectation for no change in rates later this month and through year-end.
Empire State index – It is estimated to jump to 9.0 in April from a 2-year low of 3.7 in March.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th April 2019.
Macro Events & News
By
Andria Pichidi
-
April 16, 2019
[IMG]
FX News Today
A mixed picture on Asian bond markets as Stock markets were mostly higher, while Japanese indices fell back from early lows and Chinese indices rallied in the second part of the session.
A lacklustre Bank earnings report yesterday saw some investors turning cautious again and in Asia many will be waiting for Chinese GDP numbers tomorrow.
US futures are moving higher, with the Dow Jones future up 0.239%.
The front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.27 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Technician’s Corner
EURUSD settled to narrow orbit of 1.1300, consolidating with MACD, and RSI been flattened in the neutral zone confirming the lack of direction. Resistance is set at PP level at 1.1306 and Support is at the latest low 1.1292.
USDCAD edged higher at 1.3395, holding inside recent ranges, as crude oil slumped $0.50. As it is set for a 2nd trading day above 20-day MA with upper Bollinger bands extending to the upside, a retest of the next Resistance levels at 1.3405 and 1.3440 could be seen.
USDJPY found support again under the 112.00 mark, after topping at 112.03overnight. A move over the March 5 high of 112.13 could take the pairing to near 4-month highs. Support now comes in at 111.79.
Main Macro Events Today
Earnings and Unemployment Rate – Average Earnings are expected to have remained at 3.4% while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4%.
German ZEW – The ZEW investor sentiment is expected to lift out of negative territory in the April reading and rise to 0.5 from -3.6 in March, which would be a continuation of the improvements in recent months and suggests that pessimists no longer outnumber optimists.
US Industrial Production – March industrial production is projected to rise 0.2%, after a flat February reading, and capacity utilization should edge up to 79.2% from 79.1%.
NZ CPI Inflation – New Zealand’s inflation rate is expected to have declined to 1.8% y/y compared to 1.9% y/y in the final quarter of 2018.
Trade Balance – The Japanese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at 310 billion Yen, compared to 335 billion Yen in February.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.