European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.4 bp at 0.379% in opening trade, in tandem with but outperforming the rise in long rates in the US and Japan. BTPs continue to outperform at the start of the session. Stock market sentiment picked up in Asia, and US futures are moving higher, although UK futures are heading south and there is still plenty, from Brexit to Italy’s budget spat to the risk of political instability in Germany to cloud over sentiment, although a very busy economic calendar today will also demand attention. Already released French GDP came in at 0.4% q/q, leaving the overall Euro Area number today on course to also come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2. German jobless numbers, as well as preliminary HICP inflation are also due, as is the ESI economic sentiment indicator, the Swiss Kof leading indicator and the UK CBI industrial trends survey.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.10% and 10-year JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp to 0.108% as stock market sentiment improved. Comments from US President Trump, who spoke about a “great” deal with China helped to dampen concerns about earlier reports that the US is preparing to put tariffs on all imports from China. Trump also told Fox news that he didn’t think that Beijing was ready for a deal yet, and the Yuan dropped to the lowest level since May 2008 after the PBC cut its daily fixing and amid concerns of a further escalation of the trade war. Shanghai and Shenzhen managed to recoup early losses and charge higher, with indices currently up 1.30% and 1.24% respectively. The Hang Seng underperformed and fell back -0.24%, while Japanese markets got a further boost from a weaker Yen, with Topix and Nikkei up 1.46% and 1.44% respectively. The ASX gained 1.34% and US stock futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are little changed and the front end Nymex future is trading slightly above USD 67 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Euro Area Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure of the Euro Area economy is expected to come out at 1.8% y/y, down from 2.1% last quarter on account of higher uncertainty about Italy’s budget, but still very robust. Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The CB Index is expected to come out at 136.3 compared to 138.4 last month, suggesting a weak deterioration, albeit still remaining at high levels. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 3.136%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 0.115%. BoJ left policy unchanged and kept the 10-year bond yield target at about zero as the revised forecasts show inflation below target for years to come. Inflation came in lower than expected in Australia, and China’s manufacturing activity is feeling the strain of the trade war with the US and the manufacturing PMI fell back to just 50.2, effectively signalling stagnation. Despite this Asian stock markets moved mostly higher and are bound to end the month on a more positive note, although this is still to be the worst month for global equities in more than 6 years. China’s overnight Repo rate surged amid official efforts to stem bets against the Yuan. Earnings reports remain in focus ahead of Apple results and Friday’s US jobs reports. Buyers may be attracted by cheaper valuations, but trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. Topix and Nikkei are up 2.15% and 2.16% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.99% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 1.26% and 1.48%. The ASX underperformed, but is also up 0.43%, as are US stock futures.
European Fixed Income Outlook: December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.20, down from a close of 160.44 yesterday. The 10-year cash yield is up 1.1 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, despite weaker than expected German retail sales data at the start of the session. BTPs are coming back from yesterday’s slump and the reversal of safe haven flows are adding to the general trend of rising yields at the long end as stock markets seem intent on ending a disastrous month on a more positive note. Treasury and JGB yields also moved higher, UK stock futures are rising with US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone inflation and labour market data as well as ECB speakers and Spanish GDP numbers.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Euro CPI and Core – Expectations – Eurozone HICP seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number. Canadian GDP – Expectations – The August GDP is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July. Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – It is expected to fall to 3.6M barrels from 6.3M last week. US ADP Employment Change – Expectations – The ADP employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern near 60.5 in October. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
European Fixed Income Outlook: The December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.23 marginally down from the close of 160.26 yesterday. 10-year Bund yields are down -0.3 bp at 0.380% in opening trade, 10-year JGB yields are down 0.5 bp, while Treasury rates climbed 1.0 bp to 3.115%. The month end recovery on stock markets started to fray at the edges during the Asian session with Japanese bourses under pressure again and NASDAQ futures also heading south. UK and DAX futures are also pointing to a weaker open in Europe despite reports that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on financial services that would continue to give UK banks access to the European market. The report boosted the Pound, which in turn will likely keep a lid on the FTSE 100 as the focus turns to the BoE announcement. The central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the inflation report and updated projections. Released at the start of the session, Nationwide house price data was lacklustre and today’s October manufacturing PMIs are also unlikely to be a reason to cheer, with Euro Area numbers expected to confirm weak preliminary readings and the UK PMI seen falling back markedly.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.0 bp to 3.153% overnight while JGBs recovered early losses and rates fell back -0.2 bp to 0.114%, after Japan tapped 10-year bonds for 2.25 yen. JGBs were also underpinned by losses of -0.85% and -1.06% in Topix and Nikkei, which were led by the telecommunication sector amid concerns over pricing pressures. Signals from China that further stimulus measures are underway helped other markets to move higher, while reports from The Times of London that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on continued access of financial services in the UK to the European market after Brexit, strengthened the Pound and added to the improvement in risk appetite after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. China’s manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 50.1 from 50.0. Hang Seng and SSE gained 1.42% and 0.13% respectively. The Shenzhen Comp rose 1.08% and the ASX 0.18%. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ future underperforming. Oil prices are slightly lower and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 64.93 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Swiss CPI – Expectations – Inflation in Switzerland is expected to have stood at 1.1% in October, registering a slight increase from 1% in September. BoE Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – Brexit news still drive the Sterling with no changes anticipated for either the interest rate or QE. BoE is likely to repeat that a gradual, 25 bp hike per year, policy is what it is currently following. US Productivity and Unit Labour Costs – Expectations – Productivity is expected to continue its increase, registering a 2% rise compared to last quarter, while labour costs are expected to have increased by 1.2% in Q3. US Manufacturing PMIs – Expectations – The US PMI is expected to come out at 59, compared to 59.8 last month, still suggesting growth, despite its slight decline. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 3.8 bp at 3.168%, 10-year JGB yields jumped 1.2 bp to 0.121% as Asian shares rallied on trade hopes. Bloomberg reported that Trump is seeking to reach a trade deal with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina later this month and has asked officials to begin drafting potential terms, with other reports suggesting that intellectual property rights are a key sticking point. Apple warned that sales for the crucial holiday quarter may miss expectations, but this was shrugged off amid hopes of a trade deal, which together with yesterday’s pledge from Chinese officials to support demand saw Topix and Nikkei gaining 1.64% and 2.56% respectively. The Hang Seng outperformed and was up 3.66% as of 6:08 GMT. The CSI also rose 3% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp gained 2.20% and 2.86%. US stock futures are also higher and oil prices reached a high of USD 63.95 per barrel, before falling back to now USD 63.81.
FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have traded generally weaker against most other currencies amid a backdrop of strongly-rebounding global stock markets. An ease between the US and China on trade, along with overall decent corporate earnings, mostly firm US data this week, and a plethora of stock-boosting measures by Beijing, have collectively elicited a rebound in stock markets. USDJPY has recouped to the 113.00 area, though Yen crosses have generally rallied by bigger magnitudes. The biggest percentage gainer has been AUDJPY, which has gained over 0.7% in what is now its sixth consecutive up day. EURUSD has rallied a third consecutive up day, posting a 9-day high of 1.1440 so far. The AUDUSD pegged a 5-week high at 0.7250, and USDCAD descended to an 8-day low at 1.3053, despite another sharp leg low in oil prices yesterday, which sent WTI benchmark prices to 7-month lows near $63.00.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – Eurozone PMI is expected to remain unchanged. UK Construction PMI – Expectations – The October Construction PMI is expected to slip slightly by 52.00 after the 52.1 expansion seen in September. Canadian Employment Change and Trade Balance – Expectations – The employment should post a 15.0k gain in October jobs, following the 63.3k rise in September. The pace of wage growth is expected to slow further. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow slightly to C$0.4 bln in September from C$0.5 bln in August. US Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The October US employment expect to see a 194k headline for the month with a 195k private employment figure and unemployment holding steady at 3.7% for a second month. No disruption is expected from the landfalls of hurricanes Michael and Florence but the timing of these two events means that the impact on October payrolls will likely be offsetting. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Subpar headline jobs and earnings numbers have not altered expectations for a 25 bp increase in the funds rate band, however, at the upcoming December 18-19 FOMC meeting another tightening is forecast. Also on both the Fed and ECB radar screens are two chronic issues that have plagued Europe and added to market volatility – Brexit and Italy. The UK parliament votes on the May Brexit plan on December 10, while EU leaders hold a summit on December 13-14 and could decide whether to accept any alterations to the already agreed upon deal.
United States: The week ahead in the US will feature data on consumption and inflation, alongside readings on industrial production and business inventories. The economic calendar resumes with an update on JOLTS job openings (Monday), followed by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday). Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November (Tuesday), and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. MBA mortgage market data is on hand (Wednesday), along with a likely flat reading for headline CPI in November, after a 0.3% gain in October, while core prices should rise 0.2%, after a similar gain in October. EIA energy inventory data and the Treasury budget are due too (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8 (Thursday), after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. November retail sales are seen rising just 0.1% (Friday).
Canada: A thin calendar in Canada this week, however, will not provide much in the way of key data. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to edge lower to 200.0k in November from 205.9k in October. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 86.0% in Q3 from 85.5% in Q2. The capacity use report is unlikely to make much of a splash given that BoC looks a variety of indicators of capacity use and will evaluate its estimate of the degree of slack in the economy given Statistics Canada’s revision to the GDP trajectory. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen holding steady, while the Teranet/National Housing Price Index for November is due Wednesday.
Europe: With all eyes on the political stage this week, data releases are likely to take a back seat, even if the calendar includes key leading indicators. The last German ZEW Investor Confidence reading for the year (Tuesday) is expected to come in a little changed at -24.0 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, which in the light of the sharp decline in stock markets over the past weeks is hardly a surprise. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Markit PMI is seen rising to 53.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. The German reading (Thursday) to be confirmed at 2.2% y/y. This is in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability, but with core inflation still considerably lower. Meanwhile Eurozone October industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m after the correction of -0.3% m/m in September. Again, little more than a stabilization, with uncertainty over the outlook weighing on confidence, even if companies continue to hold a large number of unfilled orders and the labour market is looking increasingly tight in key countries such as Germany.
UK: It’s Brexit-time this week. The parliamentary vote on the government’s Brexit deal is Tuesday. As of late last week, it continued to look highly likely that the deal will be voted down, though there is scope for a surprise, should Eurosceptic MPs decide that this is the best they’re going to get. If the deal is rejected, it would immediately create scope for multitude scenarios in the coming weeks depending on how big the defeat is.
Japan: The December MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is penciled in at 4.0 from 6.5 previously. October machinery orders (Wednesday) are expected to have rebounded 9.0% m/m from the record 18.3% decline in September. That drop was much worse than expected, even when taking into account the various natural disasters. November PPI (Wednesday) should cool to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% amid the drop in oil prices. The October tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast rising 0.5% m/m as activity in the service sector improves, following the -1.1% September decline. The December Tankan index (Friday) is estimated dipping to 17 from 19 for large manufacturers, and 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers as some optimism slides amid ongoing trade and growth worries. October revised industrial production is also due Friday.
China: The November industrial production (Friday) is forecast slowing slightly to 5.8% y/y from 5.9%, while November retail sales (Friday) is penciled in at 8.5% y/y from 8.6%, though risk is to the upside after record “Singles Day” sales.
Australia: The Q3 housing prices index (Tuesday) is seen falling 2.0% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% contraction in Q2. RBA Head of Domestic Markets Department Kohler speaks at the 31st Australasian Finance and Banking conference in Sydney (Thursday).
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. [B] Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex [/B] [B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Overnight, stock markets remained cautious after a slightly higher close on Wall Street. – USA500 futures down by 0.3% in overnight trading. Japanese markets remained under pressure and Nikkei was down -0.34%, but signals from China’s Commerce Ministry that trade talks are still on after talks between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on how to push ahead with talks underpinned gains in Chinese markets. The delayed Brexit vote in the UK and the shock resignation of India’s central bank head added to a fearful tone in the region and wider indices continue to languish at low levels. Sterling slammed to $1.25 after Brexit vote delay, Gilt yields probed 4-month lows. EURUSD reversed to 1.1350 amid ‘hard Brexit’ risk from a 1.1443 3-week high. USDJPY has settled in the lower 113.0s – The pair had underpinned by fundamentals and limited by period bouts of intense risk-off trades, which generate safe haven demand for the Yen. WTI crude -3% to low $51s despite OPEC’s 1.2 mln bpd output cut. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today UK Average Earnings Index & Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The Q3 GDP growth, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q, lower than initially expected and partly reflecting the -0.2% q/q contraction in Germany that quarter. German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – The last reading for the year is expected to come in little changed at -24.0 versus -24.1 in November, indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists. US PPI – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. UK PM May to meet Juncker and EU leaders after delaying Brexit vote. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today USDJPY has posted a nine-day high of 113.51, in what is a second consecutive day of gains. AUDJPY has concurrently printed a six-day high, while EURJPYand other Yen crosses have seen intraday strength. A revival in risk appetite in global markets has seen the some of the Yen’s safe haven premium unwind. 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.89% while 10-year JGB yields gained 0.8 bp and are at 0.045%, as stock markets rallied across Asia. Topix and Nikkei rallied 1.99% and 2.15% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 1.72%, Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp managed gains of 0.41% and 0.35% respectively and the ASX rose 1.39%. Markets in India, hit by the shock resignation of the central bank president yesterday, recovered after an ally of PM Narenda Modi took over. US stock futures are also broadly higher, led by a 0.9% rise in the NASDAQfutures and European stock futures are also moving up. Oil prices are trading at USD 52.32. News that Canada granted bail to Huawei’s CFO, arrested for extradition to the US, helped to ease tension outside of China. Trump sparked a risk-on turn after saying in an interview with Reuters that talks were ensuing with Beijing by phone, and that he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a deal. He also said that he could intervene in the case of the detained Huawei CFO if it would benefit US national security or help secure a trade deal with China and was ready to meet with President Xi Jinping. After signals that China may cut tariffs on auto imports, more positive signs are recorded on global trade tensions. Trump also added that it would be “foolish” for the Fed to hike rates at its policy meeting next week. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Euro Area Industrial Production – Industrial Production in the Euro Area is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October compared to -0.3% in September. US Inflation Rate – The US CPI inflation rate is expected to have stood at 2.2% y/y in November (both Core and Overall Indices), despite signs of a mild deceleration in growth, as per the NFP numbers. Teresa May scheduled to go to Ireland, possibility of no confidence vote as early as today. Junker and Italy’s Conte are to meet about the Italian budget. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The stock rally continued during the Asian session – Nikkei gained 0.99%. Chinese markets outperformed as markets are growing more confident about the future of US-Sino trade relations amid reports of the first major soya bean purchases from China in a while. Also there are signs that Chinese authorities may scale back its push for high-tech industrial development, which could be the first step towards honouring US demands for stronger protection of US intellectual property rights. UK PM May survived the leadership battle although that doesn’t mean of course that she will be able to ratify her Brexit deal. GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed – PM May heads to Brussels to try and get more concessions that would help her get the hated Withdrawal Pact past lawmakers. WTI crude settled in lower $51.0s after ebbing from upper $52.0s yesterday. USDJPY has remained buoyant amid backdrop of reviving risk appetite. EURUSD has been oscillating in mid-to-upper 1.1300s. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today SNB Rate Desicion and Conference – The central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged and to repeat that the situation remains fragile as the currency remains “highly valued”. SNB continues to tread carefully amid heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks and protectionist threats. ECB Rate Desicion and Conference – ECB is set confirm the future of QE and the re-investment schedule amid ongoing market turbulence and mounting political risk in Europe. ECB is expected to hold out for phase-out of QE by the end of the year, as planned. US Unemployment Claims – Expectation – Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8, after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Central bank meetings are the highlight, and include those of FOMC, BoE, BoJ, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Thailand, and Taiwan. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to play Santa Claus by delivering a 25 bp rate hike, wrapped in a dovish spin. Geopolitics remain important risk factors amid signs that tariff worries, Treasury curve inversions, China’s deceleration, Brexit uncertainties, Italy’s budget battles, and French riots are exacerbating a global slowing.
United States: The US calendar is dominated by FOMC meeting (Tuesday,Wednesday). Data is light and won’t factor materially into FOMC’s stance. FOMC is universally expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike to increase the target band to 2.25% to 2.50%. Along with FOMC, there is also risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. There won’t be any significant or meaningful impact on the economy from a temporary shutdown, but it could add to market nervousness and worries about the effects of reduced stimulus next year.
There are only a few tier one economic numbers this week and none will impact the FOMC decision. November personal income (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3%. The December Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip from 23.3 to 21.0. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is seen rising to 19.0 in December from 12.9 in November. Housing data are on tap, and all the November reports face downside risk from adverse weather and the California fires, but upside risk as prior disaster distortions are unwound. November durable goods orders (Friday) should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth (Friday) is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.
Canada: It is a busy calendar and features several top-tier reports. Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September. The CPI (Wednesday) is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. GDP (Friday) is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September. BoC’s winter Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is expected to reveal a still upbeat outlook, although some caution may seep in given the daily swings in sentiment on the global trade outlook.
Europe: This week’s round of data releases should on the whole back the cautious stance of the central bank. The December German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday)is expected to fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading in particular under pressure. The manufacturing sector looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany, where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.
Eurozone consumer confidence and German GfK consumer confidence (both Friday), are also likely to show the strain of negative headlines and dissatisfaction with government policies, despite ongoing improvement on labour markets and the forecasts for lower readings. The final reading of Eurozone CPI (Monday) is expected to confirm the core rate at just 1.0% y/y. The headline rate remains much higher at 2.0%, but remains impacted by base effects from energy prices, which are also underpinning very strong rates in German producer prices (Wednesday) and import price (Friday). The busy calendar also includes Eurozone trade and current account data as well as French consumption numbers and the final reading of French Q3 GDP. There also is ECB speak from Hansson (Wednesday).
UK: It’s “crystal clear” — in the words of European Commission President Juncker on Friday — that there won’t be any renegotiation by the EU, other than a clarification of the deal on offer. This suggests that the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU is headed for eventual failure in the UK Parliament. The parliamentary vote will be January; date undecided, but before the legislated deadline of January 21.
The calendar this week is busy and includes BoE’s December Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday). However, this should prove to be a non-event for markets as no changes are all but certain. Data releases will be of limited interest given the now intense distraction of Brexit and associated political uncertainty in the UK. Data releases will be highlighted by the November inflation report, where CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%. November retail ales and the third and final release of Q3 GDP are also due (Thursday and Friday, respectively).
Japan: BoJ announces policy (Wednesday, Thursday) with no changes expected. The November trade report (Wednesday) should see the deficit widen to JPY 700.0 bln from 450.0 bln previously. But there is risk from a weaker oil import bill. The October all-industry index (Thursday) is seen rising 1.5% from the prior 0.9% decline. November overall CPI (Friday) is penciled in sliding to a 0.7% y/y pace, half of the prior 1.4%, and to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% on a core basis.
Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in November jobs after the 32.8k bounce in October. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%. The minutes to RBA’s December meeting are due on Tuesday. RBA held rates steady at 1.50% at the December 4 meeting. There are not any RBA speakers scheduled through year-end.
New Zealand’s calendar has Q3 GDP (Thursday), expected to slow to a 0.5% pace from the 1.0% rate of expansion in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Thursday)is projected to narrow to -NZ$1,000 mln in November from -1,295 mln in October. The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The 20-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.814%, as the sell off in stock markets, continued during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei are down -1.99% and -1.82% respectively. Dovish RBA minutes: No strong case for a change in monetary policy. China’s President Xi Jinping offered no fresh stimulus plans or a further opening of the economy in his keynote speech marking 40-years of Chinese reforms. Concern rises over the outlook for Chinese and World Growth amid ongoing trade tensions weighing on sentiment. US stock futures are slightly higher though as the Fed decision comes into view, with Powell expected to confirm that the central bank will switch from autopilot to data dependency on rate hikes after the widely expected move this week. USA500 closed at the lowest level in 14 months. Oil prices declined and the WTI future fell back to $48.93 per barrel, as risk of demand destruction hits prices. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – To fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading, in particular, under pressure. The manufacturing sector is looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers. US housing starts – Expectations – They are estimated slipping 0.2% to a 1.225 mln pace in November, after a 1.5% gain to 1.228 mln in October. Canadian Manufacturing shipments – Expectations – They are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today In Asia, long yields dipped in tandem with Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.816%. Asian and European stock futures are mixed with all eyes on the Fed, with UK100 futures heading south, while GER30 futures are marginally higher. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.41% and -0.60% Oil prices fell to a low of just $46.10 before regaining some ground to now USD 46.50 per barrel. US budget update: Democrats rejected the bill offered by Senate Leader McConnell. Avoiding a government shutdown with a short-term spending bill before the holidays seems the most sensible solution, but this is the first major power play since the mid-term elections, which saw the House flip to the Democrats starting next year. Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight. German producer price inflation came in higher than anticipated at 3.3% y/y. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK CPI – Expectations – The headline CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%. BoC CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. The CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in November from the 2.4% clip in October, with gasoline prices again being the driver. FOMC Monetary policy and Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp tightening in the Fed funds rate is priced in. What will be key is what’s indicated about the 2019 rate trajectory. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.753%, JGB yields fell back -0.3 bp to 0.019%, and 10-year Bund yields are down -2.2 bp at 0.214% in early trade, with yield curves flattening after the Fed’s decision to go ahead with the rate hike. Topix and Nikkei still lost -2.51% and -2.84% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -1.26%, the CSI 3090 down -0.91% and the ASX -1.34%. US and European futures are also firmly in the red. Oil prices remained under pressure and February WTI is up from yesterday’s lows at USD 47.17 per barrel. Markets clearly take a much more pessimistic view on the global economic outlook than central banks and the stock sell-off that started after the Fed disappointed markets and wasn’t as dovish as markets had hoped deepened during the Asian session. The better than expected data out of Japan, where the All Industry Index improved 1.9% m/m was overlooked. BoJ left rates on hold and also sounded cautious, but with the Yen strengthening. Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today UK Retail Sales – Retail Sales for November are expected to have declined to 2.3% y/y, compared to 2.7% in October, in view of increased uncertainty regarding Brexit. BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to make any interest rate changes as it is constrained by the overall Brexit progress and thus the interest rate is expected to remain at 0.75%. Jobless Claims and Philly Fed – Jobless Claims, both initial and continuing, are expected to register an increase this week, adding to worries about the US’s macroeconomic outlook. However, the Philly Fed index is expected to increase thus providing a mixed picture of the overall US economy. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The sell-off in stock markets continued during the Asian session after another slide in US shares. Signs of fresh tensions in US-Sino relations, the risk of a partial government shutdown in the US and general angst about the health of the world economy, added further pressure in stock markets. Topix and Nikkei lost -1.91% and -1.11% respectively as a stronger Yen added to pressure. WTI is trading at just $46.21 per barrel. EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.1400s. Sterling has become directionally dormant following recent Brexit-related volatility, with the UK Parliament now in recess until the new year and London interbank markets thinning out into the Christmas break. German consumer confidence unexpectedly held steady at 10.4 in the advance January reading, despite all the negative headlines and the turmoil on markets. French GDP was unexpectedly revised down while outlook deteriorates Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today UK GDP – The 3rd and final release of Q3 GDP is expected the latter unrevised at 0.6% q/q. Canadian Retail Sales and GDP – Retail sales are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to gain 0.1% after nudging 0.1% higher. GDP is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September. US Personal Spending – November personal income is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3% , half of the 0.6% October gain. US Durable Goods and Final GDP – November durable goods orders should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Divergence between the rosier outlook on economic fundamentals of central banks and the darker omens signalled by the tightening up of the financial markets and deterioration in the commodity sector has grown.
Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the first half of the week will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.
United States:Christmas week will be light on the data front and will include consumer confidence, new home sales and the advance indicator numbers. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Monday) will be followed by the MBA Mortgage Market Report (Wednesday), along with the Case Shiller Home Price Index and Richmond Fed Index. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated declining 4k to 210k in the week ended December 22, after rising 8k to 214k in the week of December 15. Consumer confidence (Thursday) is expected to slip to 135.0 in December, from 135.7 in November and new home sales (Thursday)should rise 2.9% to 560k in November. EIA energy inventories are also due to be released. Advance indicators for December (Friday) should reveal an improvement in the trade balance for goods. NAR Pending Home Sales (Friday) may rebound to 103.0 in November from 102.1, while Chicago PMI (Friday) is set to sink to 61.0 in December from 66.4.
Canada: For Canada, activity picks up in the first week of 2019, with the December employment report due on January 4. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada until the January 9 policy announcement.
Europe: There aren’t many full trading days left for 2018, with German, Swiss, Scandi and many other European markets already closed on Monday for Christmas Eve and early closures in Paris and London, followed by a nearly full shutdown for Christmas on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. The shortened calendar week focuses on preliminary inflation data out of Germany and Spain on Friday. With import price inflation falling back sharply in November on the back of a sharp deceleration in energy price inflation we see the headline HICP rate for Germany falling back to just 1.9% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday is likely to be a close repeat of Draghi’s introductory statement at the last press conference and still send a cautiously optimistic message on the outlook.
UK: London will be open for a half day on Monday before closing through to Thursday for the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. Sterling markets will be as good as dormant until the new year, when the frustratingly unresolved Brexit solution will be back in sharp focus. The parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal and outline for a future relationship will take place in the week of January 14, before the legislated deadline of January 21.
Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Emperor’s Birthday. The economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday, with November services PMI (Tuesday), which is seen at a 1.2% y/y rate from 1.3%. The remainder of the docket comes on Friday and features December Tokyo CPI, which is expected to slow further to a 0.4% y/y pace, after sliding to 0.8% y/y in November from October’s 1.4% y/y. November unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.4%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.62.
Australia: The calendar is empty in the final week of 2018, lacking economic releases or RBA speakers. The markets are closed Monday, Tuesday andWednesday for Christmas. The next RBA meeting is on February 5, where no change to the 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The Dollar and Yen have weakened moderately against most other currencies, though the Australian Dollar has been an exception, with the antipodean currency underperforming following a weak industrial profit figure out of China. opix and Nikkei closed with gains of 4.89% and 3.88% respectively, following gains of nearly 5% in the US stock markets. The stock market bounce, amid thin volumes, was due to US 2018 holiday sales rising by 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years. The stock market rally did not push through to China, as the Hang Seng lost early gains and is down -0.46% while Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are down -0.17% and -0.15%. The CSI 300 is hanging on to a slight 0.13% gain. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, but US futures are in slightly negative territory, indicating that markets remain fragile and oil prices erased some of yesterday’s jump, leaving the front end WTI future at USD 45.98 per barrel. Uncertainty also eased as words of confidence from President Trump’s economic adviser on Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin helped to underpin risk appetite. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today ECB Economic Bulletin – The ECB Bulletin includes the statistical data that the ECB Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision and provides a detailed forecast and overview of the Euro Area economic conditions. US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined in the past week, while Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased, thus providing a mixed picture of the US economic outlook. Conference Board Consumer Confidence – The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be lower than the previous month, albeit still significantly higher than 100, thus suggesting that growth will persist. US New Home Sales – New Home Sales are expected to have increased by 0.562 million in November, compared to 0.544 million in October, suggesting that the housing market is still growing. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.773%, 10-year JGB rates down -2.0 bp at -0.012%. Japanese stock markets underperformed with Topix and Nikkei losing 0.50% and 0.31% respectively, while most other equity markets managed to move higher after Wall Street closed with further gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.14% and 0.53% respectively, with the ASX managing to rise 1.02%. Weak data, which included a drop in headline inflation, weaker than expected retail sales and an unexpected slump in November production numbers underpinned JGBs and put pressure on local stock markets. USD declined on worse than expected Consumer Confidence and mixed Jobless Claims data, as well as due to rumours regarding an executive order banning US companies from using Huawei products. The Yen and the Swissy gained thanks to their safe haven status. US markets managed to recoup losses and close broadly higher. Oil prices are up from yesterday’s close and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.77 per barrel. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today KOF Leading Indicator – The Composite Index of the Swiss economy is expected to show some signs of improvement and should stand at 99.5 in December, compared to 99.1 in November, still below the 100 mark indicating growth. Chicago PMI – While still remaining above 50, the December Chicago PMI is expected to come out worse than the November one, at 62, compared to 66.4 a month ago. Pending Home Sales – In conjunction with the mixed picture presented by the US economy, Pending Home Sales growth in November is expected to come out at -0.7%, compared to -2.6% in October. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today The Aussie Dollar strengthened on expectations of progress in trade talks between China and the US. President Trump said that he had a “long and very good call” with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and a possible trade deal between the United States and China was progressing well. Still, market sentiment remains fragile over looming concerns of slowing global growth and a partial US government shutdown. Bourses remained closed in Japan and mainland China, while markets in Australia closed early. The Hang Seng rallied 1.34%, compared to a -0.14% loss in the ASX and US futures are moving higher as traders put their hope in US-Sino trade talks. The broad MSCI ex-Japan index managed a 0.6% gain, and US futures are also moving higher, suggesting a somewhat more mellow mood in markets on the last trading day of the year. The broad MSCI ex-Japan till lost 16% this year, while the Nikkei shed 12% in 2018 and the CSI 300 lost around a quarter of its value, highlighting that investors are taking a very gloomy view on the outlook for the world economy. Oil prices are moving higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.90 per barrel. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today A holiday across the majority of markets (including Japan, Germany, Italy, China, and Brazil), while the UK, New Zealand, Australia, France and Hong Kong markets will close early. Dallas Fed Manufacturing – This monthly survey aims to obtain a timely assessment of the state of Texas factory activity. The indicator is expected to stand at 17.6, the same as last month, still indicating growth given that it is higher than 0. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover. Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%. Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year. The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes. In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar. Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel. Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries. UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Japan remained on holiday, but elsewhere in Asia bond markets got support from ongoing wobbles in equity markets, where a revenue warning from Apple hit holiday-thinned trade. The ASX managed a 1.36% gain, but the Hang Seng lost -0.81% and the CSI 300 is down 0.31%, with comments from the central bank, which once again promised measures to support small companies, helping to contain losses. US stock futures are sharply lower, led by a -2.7% decline in the NASDAQ mini future. Oil prices are also down on the day and the front end WTI is trading at USD 45.54 per barrel. European stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday after a rebound on Wall Street saw indices clawing back some of their earlier losses. However, a rare revenue warning from Apple revived concerns about the outlook for the world economy and hit holiday-thinned Asian markets, while sending US and European stock futures south. Investors are increasingly pricing out any further move towards policy normalisation from central banks and with tomorrow’s release of Eurozone HICP expected to bring a sharp deceleration in the headline rate, Bunds are likely to remain supported. Brexit jitters meanwhile continue to hang over UK markets with no sign that May has the majority needed to get her deal through the Jan 14 vote in parliament. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI is expected to come out at 52.9, compared to 53.4 last month, although the Manufacturing PMI came out higher than expected yesterday. US Jobless Claims and ADP Employment Change – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 220K in the last week of December, compared to 216K in the previous week. ADP Employment Change for November is still expected to be positive, albeit growing at a slightly slower pace than October. ISM Prices and Manufacturing PMI – ISM Prices serves as a proxy for inflation and is expected to have remained above 50 but slowed to 58.0 compared to 60.7 last month. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 57.9 compared to 59.3 last month. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.2bp at 2.58%, while 10-year JGBs fell back -3.7 bp to -0.049% as local stocks slumped in catch up trade at markets opening. Topix and Nikkei lost -1.53% and -2.26% respectively, while elsewhere in Asia markets stabilised or bounced back. China ledi the way after an unexpected improvement in the Services PMI, confirming additional measures to boost the economy and as concern over US-Sino trade relations eased since vice ministers from both countries prepare to start talks Monday. The CSI 300 is up 2.02% and the Shanghai Comp up 1.64%, as China announced measures to support the economy that include a cut in reserve requirements (RRR) for banks, as well as cuts in taxes and fees. Targeted RRR cuts, which are designed to support small and private companies will also be included, and Beijing will step up “countercyclical adjustments” of macro policies. News that the US House passed a spending bill package in an effort to end the partial government shutdown also helped to underpin sentiment and US futures are moving higher after another dismal day on Wall Street yesterday. Oil prices also benefited from improved sentiment and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 47.70 per barrel. Brexit developments and the latest troubles in Italy’s banking system will remain on the radar in Europe today. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today EU Composite and Services PMI – EU PMIs are expected to remain the same as last month. UK Services PMI – The UK Services PMI is expected to register an improvement, at 50.7 compared to 50.4 in November, also in line with the better than expected Construction PMI release yesterday. EU CPI and PPI Inflation – Euro Area overall inflation is expected to stand at 1.8% y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 1%, while the PPI is expected to have grown by 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in November. US Labour Market Data – NFPs are expected to have grown to 177k, compared to 155k last month, with Average Hourly Earnings expected to have grown by 3% y/y, compared to 3.1% last month. Canada Employment Data – The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.7%, compared to 5.6% last month, while employment change is expected to have stood at 5k compared to 94k last month. US Markit PMI – Services and Composite PMIs are expected to have remained the same and increased from last month respectively. Fed Chairman Powell Speech – Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, is set to participate in a panel discussion at the American Economic Association’s Annual Meeting. Support and Resistance [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.
This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.
United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.
The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday), along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.
Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday) are seen falling 0.2% in November.
Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday), though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.
Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.
Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.
Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.
The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.
So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.
UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday),which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.
Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.
The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday) is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday) is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.
Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.
New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today USDJPY has posted a six-day high at 109.00. Yen crosses have also remained buoyant amid a backstop of re-established risk appetite in global markets, in turn feeding an outperforming bid in Japanese equity markets, while the Dollar has concurrently firmed up a tad against most currencies after descending yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.685% while 10-year JGB yields rose 1.8 bp to -0.08%. Asian bond as well as stock markets traded mixed, as the focus remains on US-China trade talks. A weaker Yen helped Japanese markets to outperform and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.39% and 0.82% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is unchanged, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.23% and -0.30% respectively, while the ASX closed with a gain of 0.69% and US and European stock futures are also moving higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.54 per barrel. Markets look a little less committed presently, wanting specifics from the ongoing US-China trade talks and a break in the partial government shutdown, the consequences of which are becoming more evident as time ticks on. The Trump administration expressed optimism of a “reasonable” deal and news that China dispatched one of Xi’s top aids to the low level negotiations in Beijing underpinned hopes of progress. The US Secretary of Commerce said yesterday that a deal can be reached that “we can live with.” Meanwhile US President Trump’s TV address today will be watched closely with investors hoping for clues on the possible end to the government shutdown. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today EU Business Climate Indicator – Business Climate is expected to have decreased to 0.99 in December, compared to 1.09 in November. US Trade Balance – Although less important than in other countries, the US trade balance still provides important information about the supply of Dollars in the world as well as the state of the US economy. In November, the trade deficit is expected to have stood at $54 billion, compared to $55.5 billion in October. Canadian Trade Balance – The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have increased to $1.95 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in October. Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets. EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively. Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%. Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading. After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November. EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October. BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January. FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook. Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Dovish leaning Fed speakers and minutes yesterday continue to underpin Treasuries. Bonds got support from reduced risk appetite. FOMC minutes: could afford to be patient, with inflation low;downside risks may have increased, the timing of future rate hikes as less clear. Trade talks between the US and China may have ended on an optimistic note, but traders fear that it could drag on for a long while. Nikkei lost -1.29% – Yen strengthened. Talks in the US to end the partial government shutdown collapsed. USDJPY reversed to 107.80 low from 109.0; EURUSD surged to 1.1559 high Solid session for Canadian stocks, tracking the bullishness around the world. GoC yields moved modestly higher as BoC delivered the as-expected steady rate announcement while reiterating rates will need to go higher “over time.” USDCAD slipped to nearly the 1.3200 level. WTI crude rallied 5% to $52.5 bbl despite mild EIA crude draw, product builds. Charts of the Day [IMG]
Main Macro Events Today ECB Minutes – Expectations – The ECB’s account is likely to reflect growing unease and while there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases, it is expected that even the hawks were not pushing for further exit steps just yet. US Initial jobless claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5, after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. Canadian Housing data – Expectations – Building permit values are projected to slip 0.5% in November, while the new housing price index is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November after the flat readings the past 3 months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech at 17:00 GMT. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”. ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous. On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views. The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets. US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy. European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight. US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets. WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment. US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy. Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth. Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal. GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined. Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss. EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485. Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%. ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside. Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary. Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher. GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote. China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record. Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%. Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel. German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9% Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside. UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November. UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%. PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29. EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline. Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks: Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexitdevelopments remain the key focus in Europe. Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor. USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14. WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4. US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks. WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures. US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss. USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300. Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned. Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus. Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November. US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December. Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower. Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity. Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
FX News Today Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%. Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year. Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection. All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south. The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17. There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling. Charts of the Day [IMG] Support and Resistance Levels [IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
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Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Comments
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th October 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.4 bp at 0.379% in opening trade, in tandem with but outperforming the rise in long rates in the US and Japan. BTPs continue to outperform at the start of the session. Stock market sentiment picked up in Asia, and US futures are moving higher, although UK futures are heading south and there is still plenty, from Brexit to Italy’s budget spat to the risk of political instability in Germany to cloud over sentiment, although a very busy economic calendar today will also demand attention. Already released French GDP came in at 0.4% q/q, leaving the overall Euro Area number today on course to also come in at 0.4% q/q, unchanged from Q2. German jobless numbers, as well as preliminary HICP inflation are also due, as is the ESI economic sentiment indicator, the Swiss Kof leading indicator and the UK CBI industrial trends survey.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.5 bp at 3.10% and 10-year JGB rates climbed 1.2 bp to 0.108% as stock market sentiment improved. Comments from US President Trump, who spoke about a “great” deal with China helped to dampen concerns about earlier reports that the US is preparing to put tariffs on all imports from China. Trump also told Fox news that he didn’t think that Beijing was ready for a deal yet, and the Yuan dropped to the lowest level since May 2008 after the PBC cut its daily fixing and amid concerns of a further escalation of the trade war. Shanghai and Shenzhen managed to recoup early losses and charge higher, with indices currently up 1.30% and 1.24% respectively. The Hang Seng underperformed and fell back -0.24%, while Japanese markets got a further boost from a weaker Yen, with Topix and Nikkei up 1.46% and 1.44% respectively. The ASX gained 1.34% and US stock futures are also broadly higher. Oil prices are little changed and the front end Nymex future is trading slightly above USD 67 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro Area Real GDP – Expectations – The most important figure of the Euro Area economy is expected to come out at 1.8% y/y, down from 2.1% last quarter on account of higher uncertainty about Italy’s budget, but still very robust.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence – Expectations – The CB Index is expected to come out at 136.3 compared to 138.4 last month, suggesting a weak deterioration, albeit still remaining at high levels.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st October 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.3 bp at 3.136%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 0.115%. BoJ left policy unchanged and kept the 10-year bond yield target at about zero as the revised forecasts show inflation below target for years to come. Inflation came in lower than expected in Australia, and China’s manufacturing activity is feeling the strain of the trade war with the US and the manufacturing PMI fell back to just 50.2, effectively signalling stagnation. Despite this Asian stock markets moved mostly higher and are bound to end the month on a more positive note, although this is still to be the worst month for global equities in more than 6 years. China’s overnight Repo rate surged amid official efforts to stem bets against the Yuan. Earnings reports remain in focus ahead of Apple results and Friday’s US jobs reports. Buyers may be attracted by cheaper valuations, but trade concerns continue to cloud over sentiment. Topix and Nikkei are up 2.15% and 2.16% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.99% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are up 1.26% and 1.48%. The ASX underperformed, but is also up 0.43%, as are US stock futures.
European Fixed Income Outlook: December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.20, down from a close of 160.44 yesterday. The 10-year cash yield is up 1.1 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, despite weaker than expected German retail sales data at the start of the session. BTPs are coming back from yesterday’s slump and the reversal of safe haven flows are adding to the general trend of rising yields at the long end as stock markets seem intent on ending a disastrous month on a more positive note. Treasury and JGB yields also moved higher, UK stock futures are rising with US futures after a largely positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone inflation and labour market data as well as ECB speakers and Spanish GDP numbers.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro CPI and Core – Expectations – Eurozone HICP seen lifting to 2.2% y/y from 2.1% y/y in September. Underlying inflation is also expected to rise as base effects from changes to education charges in Italy that have kept the Italian rate low over the past year, will finally fall out of the equation with the October number.
Canadian GDP – Expectations – The August GDP is expected to expand 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July.
Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – It is expected to fall to 3.6M barrels from 6.3M last week.
US ADP Employment Change – Expectations – The ADP employment survey is seen +215k for October vs +230k and the Employment Cost Index (ECI) is expected to rise 0.8% in Q3, shifting up from a gain of 0.6% in Q2. Chicago PMI is seen in a holding pattern near 60.5 in October.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st November 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
European Fixed Income Outlook: The December 10-year Bund future opened at 160.23 marginally down from the close of 160.26 yesterday. 10-year Bund yields are down -0.3 bp at 0.380% in opening trade, 10-year JGB yields are down 0.5 bp, while Treasury rates climbed 1.0 bp to 3.115%. The month end recovery on stock markets started to fray at the edges during the Asian session with Japanese bourses under pressure again and NASDAQ futures also heading south. UK and DAX futures are also pointing to a weaker open in Europe despite reports that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on financial services that would continue to give UK banks access to the European market. The report boosted the Pound, which in turn will likely keep a lid on the FTSE 100 as the focus turns to the BoE announcement. The central bank is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, leaving the focus on the inflation report and updated projections. Released at the start of the session, Nationwide house price data was lacklustre and today’s October manufacturing PMIs are also unlikely to be a reason to cheer, with Euro Area numbers expected to confirm weak preliminary readings and the UK PMI seen falling back markedly.
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields moved up 1.0 bp to 3.153% overnight while JGBs recovered early losses and rates fell back -0.2 bp to 0.114%, after Japan tapped 10-year bonds for 2.25 yen. JGBs were also underpinned by losses of -0.85% and -1.06% in Topix and Nikkei, which were led by the telecommunication sector amid concerns over pricing pressures. Signals from China that further stimulus measures are underway helped other markets to move higher, while reports from The Times of London that the UK and the EU have reached a tentative deal on continued access of financial services in the UK to the European market after Brexit, strengthened the Pound and added to the improvement in risk appetite after a strong close on Wall Street yesterday. China’s manufacturing PMI improved marginally to 50.1 from 50.0. Hang Seng and SSE gained 1.42% and 0.13% respectively. The Shenzhen Comp rose 1.08% and the ASX 0.18%. U.S. stock futures are mixed, with the NASDAQ future underperforming. Oil prices are slightly lower and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 64.93 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Swiss CPI – Expectations – Inflation in Switzerland is expected to have stood at 1.1% in October, registering a slight increase from 1% in September.
BoE Interest Rate Decision – Expectations – Brexit news still drive the Sterling with no changes anticipated for either the interest rate or QE. BoE is likely to repeat that a gradual, 25 bp hike per year, policy is what it is currently following.
US Productivity and Unit Labour Costs – Expectations – Productivity is expected to continue its increase, registering a 2% rise compared to last quarter, while labour costs are expected to have increased by 1.2% in Q3.
US Manufacturing PMIs – Expectations – The US PMI is expected to come out at 59, compared to 59.8 last month, still suggesting growth, despite its slight decline.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd November 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are up 3.8 bp at 3.168%, 10-year JGB yields jumped 1.2 bp to 0.121% as Asian shares rallied on trade hopes. Bloomberg reported that Trump is seeking to reach a trade deal with China at the G20 meeting in Argentina later this month and has asked officials to begin drafting potential terms, with other reports suggesting that intellectual property rights are a key sticking point. Apple warned that sales for the crucial holiday quarter may miss expectations, but this was shrugged off amid hopes of a trade deal, which together with yesterday’s pledge from Chinese officials to support demand saw Topix and Nikkei gaining 1.64% and 2.56% respectively. The Hang Seng outperformed and was up 3.66% as of 6:08 GMT. The CSI also rose 3% and Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp gained 2.20% and 2.86%. US stock futures are also higher and oil prices reached a high of USD 63.95 per barrel, before falling back to now USD 63.81.
FX Update: The Dollar and the Yen have traded generally weaker against most other currencies amid a backdrop of strongly-rebounding global stock markets. An ease between the US and China on trade, along with overall decent corporate earnings, mostly firm US data this week, and a plethora of stock-boosting measures by Beijing, have collectively elicited a rebound in stock markets. USDJPY has recouped to the 113.00 area, though Yen crosses have generally rallied by bigger magnitudes. The biggest percentage gainer has been AUDJPY, which has gained over 0.7% in what is now its sixth consecutive up day. EURUSD has rallied a third consecutive up day, posting a 9-day high of 1.1440 so far. The AUDUSD pegged a 5-week high at 0.7250, and USDCAD descended to an 8-day low at 1.3053, despite another sharp leg low in oil prices yesterday, which sent WTI benchmark prices to 7-month lows near $63.00.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – Eurozone PMI is expected to remain unchanged.
UK Construction PMI – Expectations – The October Construction PMI is expected to slip slightly by 52.00 after the 52.1 expansion seen in September.
Canadian Employment Change and Trade Balance – Expectations – The employment should post a 15.0k gain in October jobs, following the 63.3k rise in September. The pace of wage growth is expected to slow further. The trade surplus is anticipated to narrow slightly to C$0.4 bln in September from C$0.5 bln in August.
US Non-Farm Payrolls – Expectations – The October US employment expect to see a 194k headline for the month with a 195k private employment figure and unemployment holding steady at 3.7% for a second month. No disruption is expected from the landfalls of hurricanes Michael and Florence but the timing of these two events means that the impact on October payrolls will likely be offsetting.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th December 2018.[/B]
[B]Main Macro Events This Week[/B]
Subpar headline jobs and earnings numbers have not altered expectations for a 25 bp increase in the funds rate band, however, at the upcoming December 18-19 FOMC meeting another tightening is forecast. Also on both the Fed and ECB radar screens are two chronic issues that have plagued Europe and added to market volatility – Brexit and Italy. The UK parliament votes on the May Brexit plan on December 10, while EU leaders hold a summit on December 13-14 and could decide whether to accept any alterations to the already agreed upon deal.
United States: The week ahead in the US will feature data on consumption and inflation, alongside readings on industrial production and business inventories. The economic calendar resumes with an update on JOLTS job openings (Monday), followed by the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tuesday). Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November (Tuesday), and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October. MBA mortgage market data is on hand (Wednesday), along with a likely flat reading for headline CPI in November, after a 0.3% gain in October, while core prices should rise 0.2%, after a similar gain in October. EIA energy inventory data and the Treasury budget are due too (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8 (Thursday), after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1. November retail sales are seen rising just 0.1% (Friday).
Canada: A thin calendar in Canada this week, however, will not provide much in the way of key data. Housing starts (Monday) are expected to edge lower to 200.0k in November from 205.9k in October. Capacity utilization (Wednesday) is expected to rise to 86.0% in Q3 from 85.5% in Q2. The capacity use report is unlikely to make much of a splash given that BoC looks a variety of indicators of capacity use and will evaluate its estimate of the degree of slack in the economy given Statistics Canada’s revision to the GDP trajectory. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen holding steady, while the Teranet/National Housing Price Index for November is due Wednesday.
Europe: With all eyes on the political stage this week, data releases are likely to take a back seat, even if the calendar includes key leading indicators. The last German ZEW Investor Confidence reading for the year (Tuesday) is expected to come in a little changed at -24.0 indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists, which in the light of the sharp decline in stock markets over the past weeks is hardly a surprise. The preliminary Eurozone Composite Markit PMI is seen rising to 53.0 from 52.7 in the previous month. The German reading (Thursday) to be confirmed at 2.2% y/y. This is in line with ECB’s upper limit for price stability, but with core inflation still considerably lower. Meanwhile Eurozone October industrial production (Wednesday) is seen rising 0.3% m/m after the correction of -0.3% m/m in September. Again, little more than a stabilization, with uncertainty over the outlook weighing on confidence, even if companies continue to hold a large number of unfilled orders and the labour market is looking increasingly tight in key countries such as Germany.
UK: It’s Brexit-time this week. The parliamentary vote on the government’s Brexit deal is Tuesday. As of late last week, it continued to look highly likely that the deal will be voted down, though there is scope for a surprise, should Eurosceptic MPs decide that this is the best they’re going to get. If the deal is rejected, it would immediately create scope for multitude scenarios in the coming weeks depending on how big the defeat is.
Japan: The December MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is penciled in at 4.0 from 6.5 previously. October machinery orders (Wednesday) are expected to have rebounded 9.0% m/m from the record 18.3% decline in September. That drop was much worse than expected, even when taking into account the various natural disasters. November PPI (Wednesday) should cool to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% amid the drop in oil prices. The October tertiary index (Wednesday) is forecast rising 0.5% m/m as activity in the service sector improves, following the -1.1% September decline. The December Tankan index (Friday) is estimated dipping to 17 from 19 for large manufacturers, and 20 from 22 for large non-manufacturers as some optimism slides amid ongoing trade and growth worries. October revised industrial production is also due Friday.
China: The November industrial production (Friday) is forecast slowing slightly to 5.8% y/y from 5.9%, while November retail sales (Friday) is penciled in at 8.5% y/y from 8.6%, though risk is to the upside after record “Singles Day” sales.
Australia: The Q3 housing prices index (Tuesday) is seen falling 2.0% (q/q, sa) after the 0.7% contraction in Q2. RBA Head of Domestic Markets Department Kohler speaks at the 31st Australasian Finance and Banking conference in Sydney (Thursday).
[B]Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.[/B]
[B]Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.[/B]
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
[B]
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
[/B]
[B]Disclaimer:[/B] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th December 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Overnight, stock markets remained cautious after a slightly higher close on Wall Street. – USA500 futures down by 0.3% in overnight trading.
Japanese markets remained under pressure and Nikkei was down -0.34%, but signals from China’s Commerce Ministry that trade talks are still on after talks between Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on how to push ahead with talks underpinned gains in Chinese markets.
The delayed Brexit vote in the UK and the shock resignation of India’s central bank head added to a fearful tone in the region and wider indices continue to languish at low levels.
Sterling slammed to $1.25 after Brexit vote delay, Gilt yields probed 4-month lows.
EURUSD reversed to 1.1350 amid ‘hard Brexit’ risk from a 1.1443 3-week high.
USDJPY has settled in the lower 113.0s – The pair had underpinned by
fundamentals and limited by period bouts of intense risk-off trades, which generate safe haven demand for the Yen.
WTI crude -3% to low $51s despite OPEC’s 1.2 mln bpd output cut.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Average Earnings Index & Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The Q3 GDP growth, which is expected to be confirmed at 0.2% q/q, lower than initially expected and partly reflecting the -0.2% q/q contraction in Germany that quarter.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – The last reading for the year is expected to come in little changed at -24.0 versus -24.1 in November, indicating that pessimists continue to outnumber optimists.
US PPI – Expectations – Headline PPI is expected to be flat in November and core prices should rise just 0.1%, following respective gains of 0.6% and 0.5% in October.
UK PM May to meet Juncker and EU leaders after delaying Brexit vote.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th December 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
USDJPY has posted a nine-day high of 113.51, in what is a second consecutive day of gains. AUDJPY has concurrently printed a six-day high, while EURJPYand other Yen crosses have seen intraday strength. A revival in risk appetite in global markets has seen the some of the Yen’s safe haven premium unwind.
10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 bp at 2.89% while 10-year JGB yields gained 0.8 bp and are at 0.045%, as stock markets rallied across Asia.
Topix and Nikkei rallied 1.99% and 2.15% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 1.72%, Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp managed gains of 0.41% and 0.35% respectively and the ASX rose 1.39%.
Markets in India, hit by the shock resignation of the central bank president yesterday, recovered after an ally of PM Narenda Modi took over.
US stock futures are also broadly higher, led by a 0.9% rise in the NASDAQfutures and European stock futures are also moving up. Oil prices are trading at USD 52.32.
News that Canada granted bail to Huawei’s CFO, arrested for extradition to the US, helped to ease tension outside of China.
Trump sparked a risk-on turn after saying in an interview with Reuters that talks were ensuing with Beijing by phone, and that he would not raise tariffs on Chinese imports until he was sure about a deal.
He also said that he could intervene in the case of the detained Huawei CFO if it would benefit US national security or help secure a trade deal with China and was ready to meet with President Xi Jinping. After signals that China may cut tariffs on auto imports, more positive signs are recorded on global trade tensions.
Trump also added that it would be “foolish” for the Fed to hike rates at its policy meeting next week.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Euro Area Industrial Production – Industrial Production in the Euro Area is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October compared to -0.3% in September.
US Inflation Rate – The US CPI inflation rate is expected to have stood at 2.2% y/y in November (both Core and Overall Indices), despite signs of a mild deceleration in growth, as per the NFP numbers.
Teresa May scheduled to go to Ireland, possibility of no confidence vote as early as today.
Junker and Italy’s Conte are to meet about the Italian budget.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th December 2018.
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FX News Today
The stock rally continued during the Asian session – Nikkei gained 0.99%.
Chinese markets outperformed as markets are growing more confident about the future of US-Sino trade relations amid reports of the first major soya bean purchases from China in a while.
Also there are signs that Chinese authorities may scale back its push for high-tech industrial development, which could be the first step towards honouring US demands for stronger protection of US intellectual property rights.
UK PM May survived the leadership battle although that doesn’t mean of course that she will be able to ratify her Brexit deal.
GER30 and UK100 futures are trading narrowly mixed – PM May heads to Brussels to try and get more concessions that would help her get the hated Withdrawal Pact past lawmakers.
WTI crude settled in lower $51.0s after ebbing from upper $52.0s yesterday.
USDJPY has remained buoyant amid backdrop of reviving risk appetite.
EURUSD has been oscillating in mid-to-upper 1.1300s.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
SNB Rate Desicion and Conference – The central bank is expected to leave policy unchanged and to repeat that the situation remains fragile as the currency remains “highly valued”. SNB continues to tread carefully amid heightened uncertainty, geopolitical risks and protectionist threats.
ECB Rate Desicion and Conference – ECB is set confirm the future of QE and the re-investment schedule amid ongoing market turbulence and mounting political risk in Europe. ECB is expected to hold out for phase-out of QE by the end of the year, as planned.
US Unemployment Claims – Expectation – Initial jobless claims are estimated to decline 6k to 225k in the week ended December 8, after falling 4k to 231k in the week of December 1.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th December 2018.
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The Economic week ahead
Central bank meetings are the highlight, and include those of FOMC, BoE, BoJ, Bank Indonesia, Bank of Thailand, and Taiwan. Fed Chairman Powell is expected to play Santa Claus by delivering a 25 bp rate hike, wrapped in a dovish spin. Geopolitics remain important risk factors amid signs that tariff worries, Treasury curve inversions, China’s deceleration, Brexit uncertainties, Italy’s budget battles, and French riots are exacerbating a global slowing.
United States: The US calendar is dominated by FOMC meeting (Tuesday,Wednesday). Data is light and won’t factor materially into FOMC’s stance. FOMC is universally expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike to increase the target band to 2.25% to 2.50%. Along with FOMC, there is also risk of a partial government shutdown at the end of the week. There won’t be any significant or meaningful impact on the economy from a temporary shutdown, but it could add to market nervousness and worries about the effects of reduced stimulus next year.
There are only a few tier one economic numbers this week and none will impact the FOMC decision. November personal income (Friday) is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3%. The December Empire State index (Monday) is expected to dip from 23.3 to 21.0. The Philly Fed index (Thursday) is seen rising to 19.0 in December from 12.9 in November. Housing data are on tap, and all the November reports face downside risk from adverse weather and the California fires, but upside risk as prior disaster distortions are unwound. November durable goods orders (Friday) should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth (Friday) is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.
Canada: It is a busy calendar and features several top-tier reports. Manufacturing shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September. The CPI (Wednesday) is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. GDP (Friday) is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September. BoC’s winter Business Outlook Survey (Friday) is expected to reveal a still upbeat outlook, although some caution may seep in given the daily swings in sentiment on the global trade outlook.
Europe: This week’s round of data releases should on the whole back the cautious stance of the central bank. The December German Ifo Business Climate (Tuesday)is expected to fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading in particular under pressure. The manufacturing sector looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany, where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.
Eurozone consumer confidence and German GfK consumer confidence (both Friday), are also likely to show the strain of negative headlines and dissatisfaction with government policies, despite ongoing improvement on labour markets and the forecasts for lower readings. The final reading of Eurozone CPI (Monday) is expected to confirm the core rate at just 1.0% y/y. The headline rate remains much higher at 2.0%, but remains impacted by base effects from energy prices, which are also underpinning very strong rates in German producer prices (Wednesday) and import price (Friday). The busy calendar also includes Eurozone trade and current account data as well as French consumption numbers and the final reading of French Q3 GDP. There also is ECB speak from Hansson (Wednesday).
UK: It’s “crystal clear” — in the words of European Commission President Juncker on Friday — that there won’t be any renegotiation by the EU, other than a clarification of the deal on offer. This suggests that the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU is headed for eventual failure in the UK Parliament. The parliamentary vote will be January; date undecided, but before the legislated deadline of January 21.
The calendar this week is busy and includes BoE’s December Monetary Policy Committee meeting (Thursday). However, this should prove to be a non-event for markets as no changes are all but certain. Data releases will be of limited interest given the now intense distraction of Brexit and associated political uncertainty in the UK. Data releases will be highlighted by the November inflation report, where CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%. November retail ales and the third and final release of Q3 GDP are also due (Thursday and Friday, respectively).
Japan: BoJ announces policy (Wednesday, Thursday) with no changes expected. The November trade report (Wednesday) should see the deficit widen to JPY 700.0 bln from 450.0 bln previously. But there is risk from a weaker oil import bill. The October all-industry index (Thursday) is seen rising 1.5% from the prior 0.9% decline. November overall CPI (Friday) is penciled in sliding to a 0.7% y/y pace, half of the prior 1.4%, and to 0.9% y/y from 1.0% on a core basis.
Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 25.0k gain in November jobs after the 32.8k bounce in October. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 5.0%. The minutes to RBA’s December meeting are due on Tuesday. RBA held rates steady at 1.50% at the December 4 meeting. There are not any RBA speakers scheduled through year-end.
New Zealand’s calendar has Q3 GDP (Thursday), expected to slow to a 0.5% pace from the 1.0% rate of expansion in Q2 (q/q, sa). The trade deficit (Thursday)is projected to narrow to -NZ$1,000 mln in November from -1,295 mln in October. The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th December 2018.
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FX News Today
FX News Today
The 20-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.814%, as the sell off in stock markets, continued during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei are down -1.99% and -1.82% respectively.
Dovish RBA minutes: No strong case for a change in monetary policy.
China’s President Xi Jinping offered no fresh stimulus plans or a further opening of the economy in his keynote speech marking 40-years of Chinese reforms.
Concern rises over the outlook for Chinese and World Growth amid ongoing trade tensions weighing on sentiment.
US stock futures are slightly higher though as the Fed decision comes into view, with Powell expected to confirm that the central bank will switch from autopilot to data dependency on rate hikes after the widely expected move this week.
USA500 closed at the lowest level in 14 months.
Oil prices declined and the WTI future fell back to $48.93 per barrel, as risk of demand destruction hits prices.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – To fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading, in particular, under pressure. The manufacturing sector is looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.
US housing starts – Expectations – They are estimated slipping 0.2% to a 1.225 mln pace in November, after a 1.5% gain to 1.228 mln in October.
Canadian Manufacturing shipments – Expectations – They are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2018.
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FX News Today
In Asia, long yields dipped in tandem with Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.816%.
Asian and European stock futures are mixed with all eyes on the Fed, with UK100 futures heading south, while GER30 futures are marginally higher. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.41% and -0.60%
Oil prices fell to a low of just $46.10 before regaining some ground to now USD 46.50 per barrel.
US budget update: Democrats rejected the bill offered by Senate Leader McConnell. Avoiding a government shutdown with a short-term spending bill before the holidays seems the most sensible solution, but this is the first major power play since the mid-term elections, which saw the House flip to the Democrats starting next year.
Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight.
German producer price inflation came in higher than anticipated at 3.3% y/y.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK CPI – Expectations – The headline CPI is expected to ebb to 2.3% from 2.4%.
BoC CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is seen falling 0.4% m/m (nsa) in November after the 0.3% gain in October, as a 10% plunge in gasoline prices pulls the CPI lower relative to October. The CPI is seen slowing to a 1.8% y/y pace in November from the 2.4% clip in October, with gasoline prices again being the driver.
FOMC Monetary policy and Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp tightening in the Fed funds rate is priced in. What will be key is what’s indicated about the 2019 rate trajectory.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th December 2018.
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FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.753%, JGB yields fell back -0.3 bp to 0.019%, and 10-year Bund yields are down -2.2 bp at 0.214% in early trade, with yield curves flattening after the Fed’s decision to go ahead with the rate hike.
Topix and Nikkei still lost -2.51% and -2.84% respectively. The Hang Seng is down -1.26%, the CSI 3090 down -0.91% and the ASX -1.34%. US and European futures are also firmly in the red.
Oil prices remained under pressure and February WTI is up from yesterday’s lows at USD 47.17 per barrel.
Markets clearly take a much more pessimistic view on the global economic outlook than central banks and the stock sell-off that started after the Fed disappointed markets and wasn’t as dovish as markets had hoped deepened during the Asian session.
The better than expected data out of Japan, where the All Industry Index improved 1.9% m/m was overlooked.
BoJ left rates on hold and also sounded cautious, but with the Yen strengthening.
Today, US futures gain following a mixed session for equities in Asia overnight.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK Retail Sales – Retail Sales for November are expected to have declined to 2.3% y/y, compared to 2.7% in October, in view of increased uncertainty regarding Brexit.
BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to make any interest rate changes as it is constrained by the overall Brexit progress and thus the interest rate is expected to remain at 0.75%.
Jobless Claims and Philly Fed – Jobless Claims, both initial and continuing, are expected to register an increase this week, adding to worries about the US’s macroeconomic outlook. However, the Philly Fed index is expected to increase thus providing a mixed picture of the overall US economy.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2018.
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FX News Today
The sell-off in stock markets continued during the Asian session after another slide in US shares.
Signs of fresh tensions in US-Sino relations, the risk of a partial government shutdown in the US and general angst about the health of the world economy, added further pressure in stock markets.
Topix and Nikkei lost -1.91% and -1.11% respectively as a stronger Yen added to pressure.
WTI is trading at just $46.21 per barrel.
EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.1400s.
Sterling has become directionally dormant following recent Brexit-related volatility, with the UK Parliament now in recess until the new year and London interbank markets thinning out into the Christmas break.
German consumer confidence unexpectedly held steady at 10.4 in the advance January reading, despite all the negative headlines and the turmoil on markets.
French GDP was unexpectedly revised down while outlook deteriorates
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
UK GDP – The 3rd and final release of Q3 GDP is expected the latter unrevised at 0.6% q/q.
Canadian Retail Sales and GDP – Retail sales are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to gain 0.1% after nudging 0.1% higher. GDP is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September.
US Personal Spending – November personal income is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3% , half of the 0.6% October gain.
US Durable Goods and Final GDP – November durable goods orders should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th December 2018.
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The Economic week ahead
Divergence between the rosier outlook on economic fundamentals of central banks and the darker omens signalled by the tightening up of the financial markets and deterioration in the commodity sector has grown.
Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the first half of the week will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.
United States:Christmas week will be light on the data front and will include consumer confidence, new home sales and the advance indicator numbers. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Monday) will be followed by the MBA Mortgage Market Report (Wednesday), along with the Case Shiller Home Price Index and Richmond Fed Index. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated declining 4k to 210k in the week ended December 22, after rising 8k to 214k in the week of December 15. Consumer confidence (Thursday) is expected to slip to 135.0 in December, from 135.7 in November and new home sales (Thursday)should rise 2.9% to 560k in November. EIA energy inventories are also due to be released. Advance indicators for December (Friday) should reveal an improvement in the trade balance for goods. NAR Pending Home Sales (Friday) may rebound to 103.0 in November from 102.1, while Chicago PMI (Friday) is set to sink to 61.0 in December from 66.4.
Canada: For Canada, activity picks up in the first week of 2019, with the December employment report due on January 4. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada until the January 9 policy announcement.
Europe: There aren’t many full trading days left for 2018, with German, Swiss, Scandi and many other European markets already closed on Monday for Christmas Eve and early closures in Paris and London, followed by a nearly full shutdown for Christmas on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. The shortened calendar week focuses on preliminary inflation data out of Germany and Spain on Friday. With import price inflation falling back sharply in November on the back of a sharp deceleration in energy price inflation we see the headline HICP rate for Germany falling back to just 1.9% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday is likely to be a close repeat of Draghi’s introductory statement at the last press conference and still send a cautiously optimistic message on the outlook.
UK: London will be open for a half day on Monday before closing through to Thursday for the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. Sterling markets will be as good as dormant until the new year, when the frustratingly unresolved Brexit solution will be back in sharp focus. The parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal and outline for a future relationship will take place in the week of January 14, before the legislated deadline of January 21.
Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Emperor’s Birthday. The economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday, with November services PMI (Tuesday), which is seen at a 1.2% y/y rate from 1.3%. The remainder of the docket comes on Friday and features December Tokyo CPI, which is expected to slow further to a 0.4% y/y pace, after sliding to 0.8% y/y in November from October’s 1.4% y/y. November unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.4%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.62.
Australia: The calendar is empty in the final week of 2018, lacking economic releases or RBA speakers. The markets are closed Monday, Tuesday andWednesday for Christmas. The next RBA meeting is on February 5, where no change to the 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th December 2018.
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FX News Today
The Dollar and Yen have weakened moderately against most other currencies, though the Australian Dollar has been an exception, with the antipodean currency underperforming following a weak industrial profit figure out of China.
opix and Nikkei closed with gains of 4.89% and 3.88% respectively, following gains of nearly 5% in the US stock markets.
The stock market bounce, amid thin volumes, was due to US 2018 holiday sales rising by 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years.
The stock market rally did not push through to China, as the Hang Seng lost early gains and is down -0.46% while Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are down -0.17% and -0.15%. The CSI 300 is hanging on to a slight 0.13% gain.
DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, but US futures are in slightly negative territory, indicating that markets remain fragile and oil prices erased some of yesterday’s jump, leaving the front end WTI future at USD 45.98 per barrel.
Uncertainty also eased as words of confidence from President Trump’s economic adviser on Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin helped to underpin risk appetite.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
ECB Economic Bulletin – The ECB Bulletin includes the statistical data that the ECB Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision and provides a detailed forecast and overview of the Euro Area economic conditions.
US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined in the past week, while Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased, thus providing a mixed picture of the US economic outlook.
Conference Board Consumer Confidence – The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be lower than the previous month, albeit still significantly higher than 100, thus suggesting that growth will persist.
US New Home Sales – New Home Sales are expected to have increased by 0.562 million in November, compared to 0.544 million in October, suggesting that the housing market is still growing.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th December 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.773%, 10-year JGB rates down -2.0 bp at -0.012%.
Japanese stock markets underperformed with Topix and Nikkei losing 0.50% and 0.31% respectively, while most other equity markets managed to move higher after Wall Street closed with further gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.14% and 0.53% respectively, with the ASX managing to rise 1.02%.
Weak data, which included a drop in headline inflation, weaker than expected retail sales and an unexpected slump in November production numbers underpinned JGBs and put pressure on local stock markets.
USD declined on worse than expected Consumer Confidence and mixed Jobless Claims data, as well as due to rumours regarding an executive order banning US companies from using Huawei products.
The Yen and the Swissy gained thanks to their safe haven status.
US markets managed to recoup losses and close broadly higher.
Oil prices are up from yesterday’s close and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.77 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
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Main Macro Events Today
KOF Leading Indicator – The Composite Index of the Swiss economy is expected to show some signs of improvement and should stand at 99.5 in December, compared to 99.1 in November, still below the 100 mark indicating growth.
Chicago PMI – While still remaining above 50, the December Chicago PMI is expected to come out worse than the November one, at 62, compared to 66.4 a month ago.
Pending Home Sales – In conjunction with the mixed picture presented by the US economy, Pending Home Sales growth in November is expected to come out at -0.7%, compared to -2.6% in October.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st December 2018.
[IMG]
FX News Today
The Aussie Dollar strengthened on expectations of progress in trade talks between China and the US. President Trump said that he had a “long and very good call” with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and a possible trade deal between the United States and China was progressing well.
Still, market sentiment remains fragile over looming concerns of slowing global growth and a partial US government shutdown.
Bourses remained closed in Japan and mainland China, while markets in Australia closed early.
The Hang Seng rallied 1.34%, compared to a -0.14% loss in the ASX and US futures are moving higher as traders put their hope in US-Sino trade talks.
The broad MSCI ex-Japan index managed a 0.6% gain, and US futures are also moving higher, suggesting a somewhat more mellow mood in markets on the last trading day of the year.
The broad MSCI ex-Japan till lost 16% this year, while the Nikkei shed 12% in 2018 and the CSI 300 lost around a quarter of its value, highlighting that investors are taking a very gloomy view on the outlook for the world economy.
Oil prices are moving higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.90 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
A holiday across the majority of markets (including Japan, Germany, Italy, China, and Brazil), while the UK, New Zealand, Australia, France and Hong Kong markets will close early.
Dallas Fed Manufacturing – This monthly survey aims to obtain a timely assessment of the state of Texas factory activity. The indicator is expected to stand at 17.6, the same as last month, still indicating growth given that it is higher than 0.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover.
Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%.
Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year.
The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar.
Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries.
UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Japan remained on holiday, but elsewhere in Asia bond markets got support from ongoing wobbles in equity markets, where a revenue warning from Apple hit holiday-thinned trade.
The ASX managed a 1.36% gain, but the Hang Seng lost -0.81% and the CSI 300 is down 0.31%, with comments from the central bank, which once again promised measures to support small companies, helping to contain losses.
US stock futures are sharply lower, led by a -2.7% decline in the NASDAQ mini future.
Oil prices are also down on the day and the front end WTI is trading at USD 45.54 per barrel.
European stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday after a rebound on Wall Street saw indices clawing back some of their earlier losses. However, a rare revenue warning from Apple revived concerns about the outlook for the world economy and hit holiday-thinned Asian markets, while sending US and European stock futures south.
Investors are increasingly pricing out any further move towards policy normalisation from central banks and with tomorrow’s release of Eurozone HICP expected to bring a sharp deceleration in the headline rate, Bunds are likely to remain supported.
Brexit jitters meanwhile continue to hang over UK markets with no sign that May has the majority needed to get her deal through the Jan 14 vote in parliament.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI is expected to come out at 52.9, compared to 53.4 last month, although the Manufacturing PMI came out higher than expected yesterday.
US Jobless Claims and ADP Employment Change – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 220K in the last week of December, compared to 216K in the previous week. ADP Employment Change for November is still expected to be positive, albeit growing at a slightly slower pace than October.
ISM Prices and Manufacturing PMI – ISM Prices serves as a proxy for inflation and is expected to have remained above 50 but slowed to 58.0 compared to 60.7 last month. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 57.9 compared to 59.3 last month.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
10-year Treasury yields are up 2.2bp at 2.58%, while 10-year JGBs fell back -3.7 bp to -0.049% as local stocks slumped in catch up trade at markets opening.
Topix and Nikkei lost -1.53% and -2.26% respectively, while elsewhere in Asia markets stabilised or bounced back. China ledi the way after an unexpected improvement in the Services PMI, confirming additional measures to boost the economy and as concern over US-Sino trade relations eased since vice ministers from both countries prepare to start talks Monday.
The CSI 300 is up 2.02% and the Shanghai Comp up 1.64%, as China announced measures to support the economy that include a cut in reserve requirements (RRR) for banks, as well as cuts in taxes and fees. Targeted RRR cuts, which are designed to support small and private companies will also be included, and Beijing will step up “countercyclical adjustments” of macro policies.
News that the US House passed a spending bill package in an effort to end the partial government shutdown also helped to underpin sentiment and US futures are moving higher after another dismal day on Wall Street yesterday.
Oil prices also benefited from improved sentiment and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 47.70 per barrel.
Brexit developments and the latest troubles in Italy’s banking system will remain on the radar in Europe today.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
EU Composite and Services PMI – EU PMIs are expected to remain the same as last month.
UK Services PMI – The UK Services PMI is expected to register an improvement, at 50.7 compared to 50.4 in November, also in line with the better than expected Construction PMI release yesterday.
EU CPI and PPI Inflation – Euro Area overall inflation is expected to stand at 1.8% y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 1%, while the PPI is expected to have grown by 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in November.
US Labour Market Data – NFPs are expected to have grown to 177k, compared to 155k last month, with Average Hourly Earnings expected to have grown by 3% y/y, compared to 3.1% last month.
Canada Employment Data – The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.7%, compared to 5.6% last month, while employment change is expected to have stood at 5k compared to 94k last month.
US Markit PMI – Services and Composite PMIs are expected to have remained the same and increased from last month respectively.
Fed Chairman Powell Speech – Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, is set to participate in a panel discussion at the American Economic Association’s Annual Meeting.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th January 2019.
The Economic week ahead
Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.
This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.
United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.
The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday), along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.
Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday) are seen falling 0.2% in November.
Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday), though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.
Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.
Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.
Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.
The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.
So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.
UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday),which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.
Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.
The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday) is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday) is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.
Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.
New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
USDJPY has posted a six-day high at 109.00. Yen crosses have also remained buoyant amid a backstop of re-established risk appetite in global markets, in turn feeding an outperforming bid in Japanese equity markets, while the Dollar has concurrently firmed up a tad against most currencies after descending yesterday.
10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.685% while 10-year JGB yields rose 1.8 bp to -0.08%.
Asian bond as well as stock markets traded mixed, as the focus remains on US-China trade talks.
A weaker Yen helped Japanese markets to outperform and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.39% and 0.82% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is unchanged, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.23% and -0.30% respectively, while the ASX closed with a gain of 0.69% and US and European stock futures are also moving higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.54 per barrel.
Markets look a little less committed presently, wanting specifics from the ongoing US-China trade talks and a break in the partial government shutdown, the consequences of which are becoming more evident as time ticks on.
The Trump administration expressed optimism of a “reasonable” deal and news that China dispatched one of Xi’s top aids to the low level negotiations in Beijing underpinned hopes of progress. The US Secretary of Commerce said yesterday that a deal can be reached that “we can live with.”
Meanwhile US President Trump’s TV address today will be watched closely with investors hoping for clues on the possible end to the government shutdown.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
EU Business Climate Indicator – Business Climate is expected to have decreased to 0.99 in December, compared to 1.09 in November.
US Trade Balance – Although less important than in other countries, the US trade balance still provides important information about the supply of Dollars in the world as well as the state of the US economy. In November, the trade deficit is expected to have stood at $54 billion, compared to $55.5 billion in October.
Canadian Trade Balance – The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have increased to $1.95 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in October.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets.
EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively.
Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%.
Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading.
After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November.
EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October.
BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January.
FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook.
Support and Resistance
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Dovish leaning Fed speakers and minutes yesterday continue to underpin Treasuries.
Bonds got support from reduced risk appetite.
FOMC minutes: could afford to be patient, with inflation low;downside risks may have increased, the timing of future rate hikes as less clear.
Trade talks between the US and China may have ended on an optimistic note, but traders fear that it could drag on for a long while. Nikkei lost -1.29% – Yen strengthened.
Talks in the US to end the partial government shutdown collapsed.
USDJPY reversed to 107.80 low from 109.0; EURUSD surged to 1.1559 high
Solid session for Canadian stocks, tracking the bullishness around the world.
GoC yields moved modestly higher as BoC delivered the as-expected steady rate announcement while reiterating rates will need to go higher “over time.”
USDCAD slipped to nearly the 1.3200 level.
WTI crude rallied 5% to $52.5 bbl despite mild EIA crude draw, product builds.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
ECB Minutes – Expectations – The ECB’s account is likely to reflect growing unease and while there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases, it is expected that even the hawks were not pushing for further exit steps just yet.
US Initial jobless claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5, after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29.
Canadian Housing data – Expectations – Building permit values are projected to slip 0.5% in November, while the new housing price index is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November after the flat readings the past 3 months.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech at 17:00 GMT.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”.
ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous.
On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views.
The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets.
US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy.
European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight.
US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets.
WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment.
US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2019.
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FX News Today
Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy.
Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth.
Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal.
GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined.
Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss.
EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485.
Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%.
ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.
Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher.
GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote.
China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record.
Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%.
Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment
Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel.
German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9%
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside.
UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November.
UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%.
PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29.
EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline.
Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks: Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexitdevelopments remain the key focus in Europe.
Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor.
USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14.
WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4.
US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks.
WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures.
US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss.
USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300.
Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned.
Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Main Macro Events Today
UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November.
US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December.
Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower.
Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity.
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st January 2019.
[IMG]
FX News Today
Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%.
Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%.
Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year.
Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection.
All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south.
The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17.
There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling.
Charts of the Day
[IMG]
Support and Resistance Levels
[IMG]
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!
Click HERE to READ more Market news.
Dr Nektarios Michail
Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.